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This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog.
Remember that weather evolves. Check back frequently for updates, especially during active weather.
Your Interactive City View Radars: Track the rain
Need a lightning tracker website? Here you go
Saturday Night – Partly cloudy. Scattered showers and thunderstorms over northern parts of southern Illinois into northwest Kentucky.
Temperatures: Lows in the 55-60 degree range
Winds: Winds southwest winds at 4-8 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 40%-50% northern half of southern Illinois into northwest Kentucky.
Coverage of precipitation: Most likely none.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? Small chance near I65 and then into northwest Kentucky. Hail and gusty wind is the main concern.
What impact is expected? Maybe some wet roadways and lightning for our northern counties. Gusty winds. Can’t rule out a couple of strong storms over our northern counties.
Sunday – Partly sunny. Can’t rule out a thunderstorm along the I64 corridor into northwest Kentucky. And then perhaps far western counties of southeast Missouri late in the day. Some showers may actually spread eastward across southeast Missouri Sunday afternoon.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the upper 70s to lower 80s. Temperatures could potentially vary across the region. The reason will be cloud cover.
Winds: Southwest at 5-10 mph with gusts to 15 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 20%–30% at any given location. Best chances north and west.
Coverage of precipitation? Isolated. Dry over most of the region.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely
What impact is expected? Most likely none. Perhaps a few wet roadways and lightning.
Sunday Night – Partly cloudy. Scattered showers and thunderstorms possible after midnight.
Temperatures: Lows in the middle 60s
Winds: Winds south and southwest winds at 6-12 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely
What impact is expected? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Monday – Quite a few clouds. A good chance for showers and thunderstorms.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the middle 70s
Winds: South and southwest winds at 7-14 mph with gusts to 20 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? 60%
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered to numerous
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Some rain is possible. Monitor radars.
Is severe weather expected? A few storms could be intense Monday afternoon. More likely Monday night.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Monday Night – Cloudy. Thunderstorms. Some storms could be heavy.
Temperatures: Lows in the lower 60s
Winds: Winds south at 6-12 mph with gusts to 20 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? 80%
Coverage of precipitation: Widespread
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B.
Is severe weather expected? A few storms could produce damaging winds and hail.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways. Lightning. Locally heavy rain. Locally severe thunderstorms are possible. Main concern would be damaging winds and hail. Isolated tornado risk.
Tuesday – Quite a few clouds. Showers and thunderstorms possible.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 75-80 degree range
Winds: South winds at 8-16 mph. Gusts to 20-25 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 50%-60%
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered to numerous
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Medium
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B
Is severe weather expected? Some storms could be intense. Monitor updates
What impact is expected? Wet roadways. Lightning. Some strong storms are possible.
Tuesday Night – Partly cloudy. A chance for thunderstorms.
Temperatures: Lows in the lower to middle 60s
Winds: Winds south and southwest at 6-12 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 40%-50%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to perhaps numerous early in the night.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Medium
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B
Is severe weather expected? Monitor updates
What impact is expected? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Wednesday – Partly sunny and very warm. A thunderstorm possible.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the lower to middle 80s.
Winds: South and southwest winds at 10-20 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? 40%
Coverage of precipitation? Isolated to scattered.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Medium
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates
Is severe weather expected? Severe storms are possible in the afternoon. Perhaps more likely Wednesday night. Monitor updates.
What impact is expected? Scattered storms could produce lightning, strong winds, hail, and heavy rain. Perhaps a better chance Wednesday night.
Wednesday Night – Thunderstorms possible. Some storms could be heavy. Monitor updates.
Temperatures: Lows in the lower to middle 60s
Winds: Winds south and southwest at 10-15 mph. Gusts to 20 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 50%-60%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to perhaps numerous
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Medium
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B
Is severe weather expected? Severe weather is possible. Closely monitor updated forecasts.
What impact is expected? Heavy rain. Lightning. Severe storms possible.
Thursday – Partly sunny. Any morning storms ending.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 74-78 degree range
Winds: Northwest winds at 6-12 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 40% before 8 am.
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Medium
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? Any overnight storms should be winding down. Monitor updates concerning Wednesday night.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Thursday Night – Clearing.
Temperatures: Lows in the lower to middle 50s
Winds: Winds west at 5 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Medium
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? None
Friday – Partly sunny.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 74-78 degree range
Winds: West winds at 6-12 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? 10%
Coverage of precipitation? Most likely none.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Medium
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? None
Friday Night – Partly cloudy. A thunderstorm possible.
Temperatures: Lows in the lower to middle 50s
Winds: Winds west at 5-10 mph with gusts to 15 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? 20%-30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Low
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Saturday – Mostly sunny. Cooler.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 62-66 degree range.
Winds: West/northwest winds at 4-8 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Medium
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? None
Saturday Night – Partly cloudy. Cool.
Temperatures: Lows in the 44-48 degree range
Winds: North/northwest at 5-10 with gusts to 20-25 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Low
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? None
Sunday – Partly sunny.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 65-70 degree range.
Winds: West/northwest winds at 4-8 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? 10%
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered to none
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Low
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? None
Sunday Night – Partly cloudy. A shower possible. Cool.
Temperatures: Lows in the 48-52 degree range
Winds: Winds northwest at 5-10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 10%
Coverage of precipitation: None to scattered
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Low
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected?
What impact is expected?
Monday – Partly sunny. Cool.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 64-68 degree range.
Winds: West winds at 4-8 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? 10%
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered to none
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Low
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected?
What impact is expected?
The School Bus Stop Forecast is sponsored by Heath Health and Wellness. Located next to Crowell Pools in Lone Oak, Kentucky.
Visit their web-site here. And. visit Heath Health Foods on Facebook!
Keep in mind, thunderstorms are possible late Saturday night and Sunday over parts of southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, and northwest Kentucky. Some disagreement as to how far south to pull those precipitation chances. But, at least some storms on radar appears likely. Best chances north.
The School Bus Stop Forecast is sponsored by Heath Health and Wellness. Located next to Crowell Pools in Lone Oak, Kentucky.
Visit their web-site here. And. visit Heath Health Foods on Facebook!
Heath Health Foods is a locally owned and operated retail health and wellness store. Since opening in February 2006; the store has continued to grow as a ministry with an expanding inventory which also offers wellness appointments and services along with educational opportunities. Visit their web-site here. And. visit Heath Health Foods on Facebook!
Don’t forget to check out the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory web-site for weather maps, tower cams, scanner feeds, radars, and much more! Click here
An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming days…
- Away at a wedding today! Short update.
- Thunderstorm chances?
- The week ahead!
There are a few weather concerns over the coming days. One is a cold front dropping in from the north. This front will settle somewhere along the I64 corridor. Some scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible along and north of the cold front. Lightning is the main concern. A few reports of hail possible. Again, mainly along and north of I64 and then into northwest parts of Kentucky.
Here is the WRF model guidance. Notice where the placement of the precipitation could be placed. Just a rough idea. These are totals according to that particular model.
On Sunday afternoon and evening another system will approach our western counties in southeast Missouri. Scattered storms will be possible late in the day. Most of the region should remain dry on Sunday. But, the above mentioned areas might want to monitor radars.
Expect widespread upper 70s to lower 80s on Sunday. Temperatures on Sunday will depend on cloud cover. Keep that in mind.
Here is the temperature map for Sunday. Notice the difference. Clouds to the northeast could keep things a tad cooler in those areas.
Unsettled weather pattern develops Sunday night into at least the middle of the new work week (and perhaps beyond).
A series of disturbances will push into our region from the west/southwest. Each one will deliver a chance for showers and locally heavy thunderstorms. Severe storms can’t completely be ruled out. Monitor updates each day.
Can we expect severe thunderstorms over the next 24 to 48 hours? Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.
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A level THREE severe weather threat will be with us on Monday through Wednesday night. There could be periods of time when the threat level will need to be raised.
Main thing to take from this forecast is monitor updates.
Sunday night – A few sub-severe storms are possible.
Monday morning and afternoon: Some storms are possible. Most likely below severe levels.
Monday night: Strong to potentially severe storms are possible. Monitor updates.
Tuesday and Tuesday night: Strong to potentially severe storms are possible. Monitor updates.
Wednesday morning: Severe storms are not anticipated
Wednesday afternoon and night: Severe storms are possible. Monitor updates.
Thursday: Severe storms are not anticipated
Friday: Severe storms are not anticipated.
Saturday and Sunday: Severe storms are not anticipated.
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No major shifts in the forecast.
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A few thunderstorms are possible along the I64 corridor on Saturday night and Sunday. And, a few storms could push in from the west (over mainly western parts of southeast Missouri) on Sunday afternoon and evening. Thunderstorm chances increase area wide on Sunday night into the new work week. A few strong storms can’t be ruled out. Monitor updates.
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How much precipitation should we expect over the next few days?
Unsettled pattern developing. But, complicated when it comes to the daily details.
Here are the current river stage forecasts. You can click your state and then the dot for your location. It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.
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Here is the official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).
The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA).
The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Note the dates are at the top of the image. These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be. They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.
Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?
I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s. I have 37 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns. My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology from Mississippi State University and an Associate of Science (AS). I am currently working on my Bachelor’s Degree in Geoscience.
My resume includes:
Member of the American Meteorological Society.
NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador.
Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management. I served from 2005 through 2015.
I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.
Recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross.
In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award.
Recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.
There is a lot of noise on the internet. A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation. Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.
My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.
- Communicate in simple terms
- To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
- Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, and the blog
- Minimize the “hype” that you might see on television or through other weather sources
- Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events
I am a recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross. In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. I was recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.
Many of my graphics are from www.weatherbell.com – a great resource for weather data, model data, and more
You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions.
