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Example of a recent severe weather alert. I issued this well before the official tornado warning. You would have had plenty of time for you and your family to seek shelter.
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I encourage subscribers to use the app vs regular text messaging. We have found text messaging to be delayed during severe weather. The app typically will receive the messages instantly. I recommend people have three to four methods of receiving their severe weather information.
Remember, my app and text alerts are hand typed and not computer generated. You are being given personal attention during significant weather events.
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May 4, 2018
Friday Forecast Details
Forecast: Partly cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms again possible. Warm and breezy. A few strong thunderstorms. The best chance of precipitation today will be across the Missouri Bootheel into western Kentucky and western Tennessee. Chances decrease as you move further north.
Temperatures: MO ~ 76 to 80 IL ~ 75 to 80 KY ~ 74 to 78 TN ~ 74 to 78
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30% north and 50% south IL ~ 20% north and 40% southern seven counties KY ~ 60% TN ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to perhaps numerous (esp afternoon)
Winds: Southwest at 10 to 15 mph with gusts to 20 mph. Gusty.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Perhaps locally heavy downpours.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? Low risk
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor radars
Sunrise: 5:56 AM
Friday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Partly to mostly cloudy. Scattered showers or thunderstorms again possible. Evening storms could be strong. The greatest coverage of precipitation Friday night might end up over far southeast Missouri, the Missouri Bootheel, extreme southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.
Temperatures: MO ~ 55 to 60 IL ~ 55 to 60 KY ~ 55 to 60 TN ~ 55 to 60
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 10% northern counties and 50% southern counties IL ~ 20% northern counties and 50% southern seven counties KY ~ 60% TN ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to perhaps numerous. (greatest coverage southern portion of the region)
Winds: West and northwest wind at 5 to 10 mph with gusts to 14 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways and lightning. Dime size hail. Gusty winds.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? Low-end risk of hail and high winds
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates. Some areas may still experience precipitation into Friday night.
Sunset: 7:46 PM
May 5, 2018
Saturday Forecast Details
Forecast: Partly to mostly cloudy. More clouds southeast vs west/northwest. Scattered showers and thunderstorms, especially from far southeast Missouri/Missouri Bootheel into western Kentucky and Tennessee. A few showers across the southern seven counties of Illinois. Lesser chances further north.
Temperatures: MO ~ 75 to 80 IL ~ 75 to 80 KY ~ 74 to 78 TN ~ 74 to 78
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 40% IL ~ 40% KY ~ 50% to 60% TN ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to perhaps numerous, at times. Greatest coverage over far southeast Missouri/Missouri Bootheel and then across far southern Illinois and then along the Kentucky and Tennessee border. Lesser chances further north.
Winds: North and northeast at 5 to 10 mph with gusts to 14 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Scattered wet roadways and lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor radars. Some additional rain may occur as the front becomes stationary. Some areas may have enough rain to cause issues with outdoor activities.
Sunrise: 5:55 AM
Saturday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Patchy dense fog forming. Mostly clear to partly cloudy and cool. Evening showers pushing off to the east.
Temperatures: MO ~ 53 to 56 IL ~ 53 to 56 KY ~ 53 to 56 TN ~ 53 to 56
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 10% IL ~ 10% KY ~ 20% TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Any remaining precipitation will push off to the east.
Winds: Light and variable
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways early. Fog could lower visibility.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunset: 7:47 PM
May 6, 2018
Sunday Forecast Details
Forecast: Morning fog. Partly to mostly sunny. A new system dropping in from the north should bring additional scattered showers and thunderstorms.
Temperatures: MO ~ 76 to 82 IL ~ 76 to 82 KY ~ 76 to 82 TN ~ 76 to 82
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 40% IL ~ 40% KY ~ 40% TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Winds: West and northwest wind 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Gusty winds near storms. Small hail possible.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? No, but a few storms could produce gusty winds and small hail.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates. Monitor radars. Some precipitation is likely esp in the afternoon.
Sunrise: 5:54 AM
Sunday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Partly cloudy. A shower or thunderstorm possible. Low confidence in rain chances.
Temperatures: MO ~ 52 to 56 IL ~ 53 to 56 KY ~ 53 to 56 TN ~ 53 to 56
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30% IL ~ 30% KY ~ 30% TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Winds: North and northwest at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunset: 7:48 PM
May 7, 2018
Monday Forecast Details
Forecast: Mostly sunny. A few clouds. Warm.
Temperatures: MO ~ 72 to 77 IL ~ 72 to 75 KY ~ 72 to 75 TN ~ 72 to 76
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Winds: North and northeast at 5 to 10 mph with gusts to 16 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunrise: 5:53 AM
Monday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Mostly clear. A few passing clouds.
Temperatures: MO ~ 48 to 54 IL ~ 48 to 54 KY ~ 48 to 54 TN ~ 50 to 55
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Winds: Northeast and east at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunset: 7:48 PM
May 8, 2018
Tuesday Forecast Details
Forecast: Mostly sunny.
Temperatures: MO ~ 74 to 78 IL ~ 74 to 76 KY ~ 74 to 76 TN ~ 74 to 78
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Winds: Northeast at 6 to 12 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunrise: 5:52 AM
Tuesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Partly cloudy. Some increase in clouds late. A slight chance of a few showers and thunderstorms. Best chances would be over southeast Missouri and southwest Illinois.
Temperatures: MO ~ 54 to 58 IL ~ 53 to 56 KY ~ 53 to 56 TN ~ 55 to 60
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30% IL ~ 30% KY ~ 20% TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered late
Winds: East and southeast at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways after midnight. Lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunset: 7:49 PM
May 9, 2018
Wednesday Forecast Details
Forecast: A mix of sun and clouds. A chance of thunderstorms. Some storms could be strong.
Temperatures: MO ~ 75 to 80 IL ~ 75 to 80 KY ~ 75 to 80 TN ~ 75 to 80
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 40% IL ~ 40% KY ~ 40% TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Winds: South 10 to 20 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roads. Lightning. Monitor the hail and strong wind threat.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? Some storms could be intense with hail and strong winds. Monitor updates.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updated forecasts and radars.
Sunrise: 5:51 AM
Wednesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Cloudy. A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Monitor the risk of strong storms.
Temperatures: MO ~ 60 to 65 IL ~ 60 to 65 KY ~ 60 to 65 TN ~ 60 to 65
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 50% IL ~ 50% KY ~ 40% TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to perhaps numerous
Winds: South and southwest at 7 to 14 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Monitor the risk of hail and strong winds.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? Monitor updates. Some storms could be strong.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B. Monitor updates and radars.
Sunset: 7:51 PM
May 10, 2018
Thursday Forecast Details
Forecast: Partly sunny. Quite warm. A chance of widely scattered thunderstorms.
Temperatures: MO ~ 80 to 85 IL ~ 80 to 85 KY ~ 80 to 85 TN ~ 80 to 85
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 20% TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered
Winds: Southwest at 7 to 14 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? Some storms could be intense.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates and check radars.
Sunrise: 5:50 AM
Thursday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Partly cloudy and mild. A chance of scattered thunderstorms.
Temperatures: MO ~ 60 to 65 IL ~ 60 to 65 KY ~ 60 to 65 TN ~ 60 to 65
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30% IL ~ 30% KY ~ 30% TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Winds: Southwest at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely, but monitor updates.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check updated forecasts and radars.
Sunset: 7:51 PM
May 11, 2018
Friday Forecast Details
Forecast: Mostly sunny. Quite warm.
Temperatures: MO ~ 80 to 85 IL ~ 80 to 85 KY ~ 80 to 85 TN ~ 80 to 85
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Winds: South at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunrise: 5:49 AM
Friday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Mostly clear. A few late night clouds over our northern counties. Mild.
Temperatures: MO ~ 62 to 66 IL ~ 62 to 66 KY ~ 62 to 66 TN ~ 62 to 66
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Winds: South at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunset: 7:52 PM
May 12, 2018
Saturday Forecast Details
Forecast: Mostly sunny. Some afternoon cumulus clouds. Very warm.
Temperatures: MO ~ 83 to 86 IL ~ 83 to 86 KY ~ 83 to 86 TN ~ 83 to 86
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 10% IL ~ 10% KY ~ 10% TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: Most likely none
Winds: South at 5 to 10 mph with gusts to 15 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Most likely none
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunrise: 5:48 AM
Saturday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Mostly clear. A few passing clouds.
Temperatures: MO ~ 62 to 66 IL ~ 62 to 66 KY ~ 62 to 66 TN ~ 62 to 66
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Winds: South at 7 to 14 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: No
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunset: 7:43 PM
May 12, 2018
Sunday Forecast Details
Forecast: Partly sunny. A chance of an afternoon thunderstorm.
Temperatures: MO ~ 83 to 86 IL ~ 83 to 86 KY ~ 83 to 86 TN ~ 83 to 86
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 20% TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation:
Winds:
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
My confidence in the forecast verifying:
Is severe weather expected?
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?
Sunrise: 5:48 AM
Sunday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Partly cloudy. A chance of a thunderstorm.
Temperatures: MO ~ 62 to 66 IL ~ 62 to 66 KY ~ 62 to 66 TN ~ 62 to 66
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 20% TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation:
Winds:
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
My confidence in the forecast verifying:
Is severe weather expected?
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?
Sunset: 7:53 PM
RAIN TOTALS
Models vary in totals. This is partly due to convection/thunderstorms. Thunderstorms can double or even triple what everyone else receives. It is that time of the year. Keep this in mind.
These graphics show you what the WPC and four models are forecasting for rain totals.
Click images to enlarge.
WPC/NOAA rain forecast through Sunday
NAM 3K high-resolution model. This takes us through Sunday 1 PM
GFS model guidance rain forecast through Sunday
Canadian model guidance through Sunday
EC model guidance through Sunday
Interactive Radars:
Interactive live weather radar page. Choose the city nearest your location. If one of the city radars won’t load then try a nearby one. Click here.
Questions? Broken links? Other?
You may email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
The National Weather Service defines a severe thunderstorm as one that produces quarter size hail or larger, 58 mph winds or greater, and/or a tornado.
Friday through Friday night: Thunderstorms are possible today and tonight. There is a low-end risk that a couple of storms could produce hail and gusty winds. The main concern would be across the Missouri Bootheel into Kentucky and Tennessee.
Saturday and Sunday: Severe weather is not anticipated. Lightning will be possible Saturday and Sunday.
Sunday afternoon will provide another chance for scattered showers and perhaps a thunderstorm or two. Severe weather is not a concern. A couple of thunderstorms could produce small hail and gusty winds Sunday afternoon. Most likely below severe levels.
Interactive live weather radar page. Choose the city nearest your location. If one of the cities does not work then try a nearby one. Click here.
National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.
Storm Prediction Center. Click here.
Weather Prediction Center. Click here.
Live lightning data: Click here.
Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.
Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.
Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.
The spring and preliminary summer outlooks have been posted for subscribers. Scroll down to see the outlook.
Not a subscriber? Learn more at this link.
Weather Headlines
- Some additional showers and thunderstorms today into Sunday.
- Additional showers are possible Saturday. Notice some changes in that part of the forecast.
- A fast-moving system will spark a few showers and thunderstorms Sunday afternoon and night.
- Warm weather will continue into next week. No major cold snaps anticipated. Nights will be cool (at times chilly).
Welcome to the weekend! It is a mixed bag forecast. Earlier in the week, it appeared Saturday and Sunday would remain dry. As the week moved forward it became more apparent that some showers and thunderstorms would remain in the forecast. I would not cancel any weekend plans. I would suggest monitoring radars.
There is some question about rain coverage Saturday. Some of the guidance shows numerous showers across portions of the region. Keep that in mind.
Yesterday’s forecast was a bit of a pain. Some of you received one to two inches of rain. Some received no rain at all. That was the forecast, but it was difficult forecasting who would receive little or no rainfall. I tried my best and was off by one or two counties.
Today and tonight
A mix of sun and clouds this morning. There are a few showers on radar and those are mostly across Kentucky and Tennessee.
A cold front was pushing into the region from the north. This front will help produce additional showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening.
The greatest coverage today will likely be across the southern half of the region. That would include areas from Poplar Bluff, Missouri, to Cape Girardeau, Missouri, to Vienna, Illinois, and then towards Madisonville, Kentucky. Along and south of that line has a greater chance of rain than areas north of that line.
It will be warm today with highs mostly in the 70’s.
Shower and thunderstorm activity this evening will mostly be over our southern counties. That would include the Bootheel of Missouri into Kentucky/Tennessee.
A few of the thunderstorms today could produce downpours, gusty winds, and dime size hail. Severe weather appears unlikely. As always, monitor radars and updates.
Latest guidance ramps up rain chances late tonight across the southern half of the region. We could have a surge of precipitation.
Saturday and Saturday night
A mix of sun and clouds Saturday. Showers and thunderstorms are possible across the Missouri Bootheel, extreme southeast Missouri, the southern seven counties of southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee. Smaller chances across the rest of southeast Missouri and southern Illinois.
Some of the guidance shows quite a bit of coverage Saturday. This will need to be monitored. I would not cancel plans, yet. I would monitor updates and radars.
We are anticipating dry conditions Saturday night. Any evening showers will come to an end.
Temperatures will rise into the 70’s Saturday with lows in the 50’s Saturday night.
Here it eh NAM model future-cast radar. Time-stamp upper left.
Sunday into Monday
Another fast moving system will spark additional shower and thunderstorm activity Sunday. Most of the precipitation is forecast to fall Sunday afternoon and night.
Again, I would not cancel plans. I would, however, suggest monitoring updated forecasts and radars. Some showers and storms are likely in the region.
Sunday’s activity should be more scattered. That would mean plenty of dry time.
Thunderstorms on Sunday could produce dime size hail and gusty winds. The risk of severe weather is low.
Monday and Tuesday are forecast to be dry.
Highs Sunday will be in the 70’s. Lows Sunday night will drop into the 50’s.
Rain chances may ramp back up Wednesday and Thursday. Perhaps a few thunderstorms, as well.
WeatherBrains Episode 641
Weather Brains is a weekly podcast/video for those who love weather and want more!
Joining us for this episode is SPC Lead Forecaster John Hart. John is actually in the mountains of Colorado where he has been panning for gold. As far back as he can remember, he had always dreamed of being a lead forecaster for the SELS unit in Kansas City which is now called the SPC. After attending college in St. Louis, he worked at Channel 2 there for a while. Then, a few weeks after graduation he was lucky enough to get a job at the National Weather Service in Charleston, West Virginia, and interned there for two years. He was involved with a few computer programming projects there that got his name known, so when a job opened at SELS, he was able to get it. Since then, he’s been in this unit, but worked multiple jobs. He became a meso-forecaster in 1995, and then a lead forecaster in 2000.
John considers the events of April 27, 2011, to be the biggest event that he will experience in his career. But the show title comes from a comment John made about how no event is a slam dunk, there are always uncertainties in any weather event.
Other discussions in this weekly podcast include topics like:
- Extremes: 103 at Rio Grande Village, TX, and 19 at Rosscommon, MI
- Severe wx forecast Central US next couple of days
- Hail and high wind from West TX to NB today
Previous episodes can be viewed by clicking here.
We offer interactive local city live radars and regional radars. If a radar does not update then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.
The local city view radars also have clickable warnings.
During the winter months, you can track snow and ice by clicking the winterize button on the local city view interactive radars.
You may email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
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You can learn more about those projects by visiting the Shadow Angel Foundation website and the Beau Dodson News website.
I encourage subscribers to use the app vs regular text messaging. We have found text messaging to be delayed during severe weather. The app typically will receive the messages instantly. I recommend people have three to four methods of receiving their severe weather information.
Remember, my app and text alerts are hand typed and not computer generated. You are being given personal attention during significant weather events.
