Thursday morning update
See radar links further down in the blog update
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Flash flood warning, flood warnings, and/or flash flood/flood watches cover a good part of southern Illinois and southeast Missouri. For the latest watch/warning map you can visit the link below
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Watches and warnings ~ http://weather.weatherobservatory.com/maps/severe/warnings/all/uslowerohvalley.html
This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog
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May 3, 2017
Wednesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Cloudy. Showers likely. Isolated thunderstorms. Locally heavy rain possible.
Temperatures: MO ~ 48 to 55 IL ~ 48 to 54 KY ~ 52 to 56 TN ~ 52 to 56
Winds: North and northeast winds at 10 to 20 mph. Gusty winds. Winds south of the front will be out of the south/southeast.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High. This forecast should verify.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roads. Lightning possible.
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 80% IL ~ 80% KY ~ 80% TN ~ 80%
Coverage of precipitation: Widespread.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B
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Widespread showers and storms along the Gulf Coast may cut some of the moisture off of our system. If that happens then rain totals would be lower.
May 4, 2017
Thursday Forecast Details
Forecast: Cloudy. Showers likely. A thunderstorm possible. Locally heavy rain possible. Cool.
Temperatures: MO ~ 54 to 58 IL ~ 50 to 56 KY ~ 52 to 62 (warmest southeast counties) TN ~ 56 to 62
Winds: Mostly north and northwest at 10 to 20 mph and gusty.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roads. Monitor flooding situation. Perhaps some lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High. This forecast should verify.
Is severe weather expected? No.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 80% IL ~ 80% KY ~ 80% TN ~ 80%
Coverage of precipitation: Widespread
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B.
Thursday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Some clouds. Chilly. Scattered showers. Shower coverage should diminish from west to east.
Temperatures: MO ~ 42 to 48 IL ~ 42 to 48 KY ~ 42 to 48 TN ~ 42 to 48
Winds: North winds 10 to 20 mph and gusty.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Monitor the flood situation.
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 60% IL ~ 60% KY ~ 60% TN ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to perhaps widespread. Greatest coverage should be during the evening hours.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B.
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May 5, 2017
Friday Forecast Details
Forecast: A mix of sun and clouds. Cool. A few showers possible. Greatest shower coverage on Friday would likely be over southeast Illinois into the Purchase area of western Kentucky.
Temperatures: MO ~ 56 to 62 IL ~ 56 to 62 KY ~ 58 to 64 TN ~ 58 to 64
Winds: North winds 8 to 16 mph and gusty
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments possible.
Is severe weather expected? No.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30% IL ~ 30% KY ~ 40% TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars
Friday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: A few clouds. Cool temperatures.
Temperatures: MO ~ 44 to 48 IL ~ 44 to 48 KY ~ 44 to 48 TN ~ 44 to 48
Winds: Northwest and north winds at 5 to 10 mph with gusts to 15 mph
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments possible.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 10% IL ~ 10% KY ~ 10% TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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May 6, 2017
Saturday Forecast Details
Forecast: Mix of sun and clouds. A few showers possible. (mainly far eastern counties)
Temperatures: MO 66 ~ 74 IL 66 ~ 72 KY 66 ~ 74 TN 68 ~ 74
Winds: West at 10 to 20 mph and gusty.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Low. Significant adjustments are possible.
Is severe weather expected? No.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20% IL ~ 30% KY ~ 30% TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered showers.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updated forecasts and radars.
Saturday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Clearing. Cool.
Temperatures: MO 45 ~ 50 IL 45 ~ 50 KY 45 ~ 50 TN 45 ~ 50
Winds: Northwest winds at 5 to 10 mph
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments possible.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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May 7, 2017
Sunday Forecast Details
Forecast: Mostly sunny. It should be a nice day. Warmer.
Temperatures: MO ~ 70 to 75 IL 70 to 75 KY 70 to 75 TN 72 to 76
Winds: South winds at 4 to 8 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High. This forecast should verify.
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Partly cloudy.
Temperatures: MO ~ 46 to 52 IL ~ 46 to 52 KY ~ 46 to 52 TN ~ 46 to 52
Winds: East and southeast winds at 4 to 8 mph
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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Don’t forget to check out the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory web-site for weather maps, tower cams, scanner feeds, radars, and much more! Click here
An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming day
Severe thunderstorm outlook.
Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 60 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.
Wednesday night and Thursday: Some thunderstorms are possible. Locally heavy rain is the main concern. Most likely lightning will be limited. Severe weather is not anticipated. There is a small chance early in the evening, over southern Missouri and/or the Missouri Bootheel for a locally strong thunderstorm. Severe weather risk appears small. Flooding will continue in Missouri and Illinois.
Friday through Monday night: Severe weather is not anticipated.
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Weather analysis for the next few days:
The main weather story continues to be widespread flooding over southeast Missouri and southern Illinois. This is a historic flood event for many areas. Incredible rain totals over the past week. Many large rivers are flooding. Some rivers will have historic crests.
You can view all the lake and river stages at this link ~ here
Widespread showers and thunderstorms are expect Wednesday night into Thursday. Coverage will begin to diminish on Thursday night. Rainfall totals could once again be heavy. This will aggravate the already bad flood situation across Missouri and Illinois.
Here is the NAM 10 am future-cast radar for Thursday. Wet.
Let’s take a look at the different model guidance packages. The rainfall totals won’t be exact. These graphics are for generalities and not specifics. You can see that the models do agree on the placement of the heaviest rain totals.
Strong storms along the Gulf of Mexico may cut into these totals. They could rob the system of moisture. If that happens then you can cut these numbers in half.
NAM totals
GFS model guidance
Let’s take a look at what NOAA is forecasting
Most of this falls now through Friday morning.
Southeast view and northwest view. Click images for a larger view
and northwest view
Showers could continue into Friday morning and perhaps afternoon. Plan on some spotty showers dotting radar. Perhaps the greatest risk will be over southeast Illinois and the Purchase Parkway of western Kentucky.
Let’s look at the NAM model guidance for Friday. It shows a band of rain ending from west to east on Friday. Some question on coverage.
10 AM Friday future-cast NAM radar
One model of many. This is its opinion. Just take the general idea from these graphics. Some showers may remain on Friday.
1 pm
4 pm
Dry Friday night.
A weak system could pop a few spotty showers on Saturday. It will also be windy on Saturday. Rain chances will be capped around 30% to 40%. Plan on a few showers on radar, but many areas will remain dry.
Temperatures on Saturday may vary depending on cloud cover.
If you have lake plans on Saturday then monitor the wind gust forecast. I can’t rule out gusts above 20 mph.
Dry and nice on Sunday. Sunday is the pick day of the weekend. Expect widespread 68 to 74 degree readings with mostly sunny sky conditions. Perhaps a few passing clouds.
Sunday high temperature map
I am monitoring a potential storm system around the 10th through 12th.
You can see that system on the GFS model guidance
An area of low pressure winds up to our west and northwest. That means we are on the warm side of the system. Thunderstorms would likely occur with this storm track.
Dew points well into the 60’s. Quite a bit of moisture to work with. Locally heavy rain? Possible.
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We have regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not update then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared. You may also try restarting your browser. That usually fixes the problem. Occasionally we do have a radar go down. That is why I have duplicates. Thus, if one fails then try another one.
During the winter you can track snow and ice by clicking the winterize button on the local city view interactive radars.
If you have any problems then please send me an email beaudodson@usawx.com
Interactive Weather Radar Page. Choose the city nearest your location: Click this link—
National interactive radar: Click this link.
Local interactive city radars include St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, Dyersburg, and all of eastern Kentucky. These are interactive radars. Local city radars – click here
Regional Radar
The official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).
The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA)
The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Note the dates are at the top of the image. These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be. They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.
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Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?
I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s. I have 39 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns. My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology and a Bachelor’s of Science.
My resume includes:
Member of the American Meteorological Society.
NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador.
Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management. I served from 2005 through 2015.
Meteorologist for McCracken County Rescue. 2015 through current
I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.
I am the chief meteorologist for Weather Talk LLC. I am the owner of Weather Talk LLC.
I am also a business owner in western Kentucky.
Recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross.
In 2005 I helped open the largest American Cross shelter in U.S. history in Houston, Texas. I was deployed to help after Hurricane Katrina and Hurricane Rita. I was a shelter manager of one of the Houston, Texas shelter divisions.
In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award.
Recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.
I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.
There is a lot of noise on the internet. A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation. Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.
My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.
- Communicate in simple terms
- To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
- Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, email, texts, and this blog
- Minimize the “hype” that you might see on some television stations or through other weather sources
- Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events
Many of the graphics on this page are from www.weatherbell.com
WeatherBell is a great resource for weather model guidance.
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