Beau Dodson's WeatherTalk Blog

May 2nd and 3rd: More rain on the way

Wednesday morning update

Tuesday, May 3, 2017:
 
We are zipping into May with more rain and thunderstorms.
 
A bit of two worlds outside this morning. Portions of the region have low thick clouds, rain showers, rumbles of thunder. Elsewhere, the sun is shining and it is starting out as a nice day.
 
Unfortunately, the ones receiving rainfall are those who least need it. Portions of Missouri and Illinois already have heavy downpours.
 
This will not help the flooding situation. As a matter of fact, it will make it worse.
 
Rainfall totals between now and Friday could top two inches over portions of southeast Missouri and southern Illinois. Flash flood watches blanket a decent chunk of both areas. I will post a graphic in the comment section below.
 
A wide range of high temperatures today. Areas with clouds and rain will struggle to reach 60 degrees. Those with sunshine will pop into the 70’s. Mostly easterly winds at 8 to 16 mph and gusty.
 
Location, location, location.
 
As of 10 am clouds are starting to stream into western Kentucky and portions of northwest Tennessee. The sun remains shining over portions of the Purchase Parkway and portions of western Tennessee.
 
I suspect clouds will win out everywhere as the day wears on.
 
There will continue to be a good chance for showers and thunderstorms today across much of southeast Missouri and southern Illinois.
 
As we move into the afternoon hours some of that precipitation may spread into western Kentucky and Tennessee, as well.
 
Although severe weather is currently not anticipated, we could have some heavy downpours and occasional rumbles of thunder.
 
I am monitoring the Missouri Bootheel for a couple of strong storms later today. They are in a marginal risk for severe weather. A level 1 out of 5.
 
Showers and thunderstorms are likely tonight across the area. Locally heavy rain possible.
 
Showers and perhaps some thunderstorms on Thursday. Widespread precipitation anticipated. If you have outdoor plans on Thursday then have alternative plans. It will be another wet day.
 
Scattered showers will likely continue into Thursday night and Friday morning. The coverage will decrease with each passing hour on Friday. If you have outdoor events on Friday, then monitor the latest forecasts and radar trends. At least some showers are anticipated in the region. Ending from west to east.
 
Saturday will deliver a weak passing system. Perhaps a couple of showers. Warmer. High temperatures around 70 degrees.
 
The pick day of the weekend will be Sunday. If everything goes as planned we will sunshine and lower 70’s.
 
I am watching May 10th through 12th for another storm system.
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Here is the flash flood watch graphic.  Green is the watch zone through Friday at 12 am.
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Two model projections for rainfall totals
NAM
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GFS
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http://www.weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm
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Need to track the rain?
Interactive Weather Radar Page.  Choose the city nearest your location:  Click this link
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This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog
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Major flood concerns along some rivers.
View the latest lake and river stage forecasts ~ here

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May 2, 2017

Tuesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast
: Some clouds.  A shower or thunderstorm possible.  Warm front moving northward.  I am not anticipating anything severe.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 46 to 52   IL ~ 46 to 52    KY ~ 48 to 54     TN ~ 50 to 55
Winds: N NE winds at 8 to 16 mph.  Occasionally higher gusts.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium.  Some adjustments possible.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Wet roads. Lightning.
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
?  MO ~ 40%  IL ~ 40%    KY ~ 30%   TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation
:  Spotty showers possible.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No

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May 3, 2017
Wednes
day Forecast Details
Forecast
:  Mostly cloudy.  Scattered morning showers.  A chance for afternoon showers and perhaps a thunderstorm.  Cooler over our northern counties vs southern.
Temperatures:   MO ~  55 to 65  IL ~ 55 to 65     KY ~ 62 to 70    TN ~ 66 to 72
Winds:  East and northeast at 7 to 14 mph.  Gusts to 20 mph.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Wet roads.  Lightning.  Monitor flooding situation.  More rain will not help the situation.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High.  This forecast should verify.
Is severe weather expected?  No.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
?  MO ~ 60%    IL ~ 50%    KY ~ 40%    TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation
: Scattered.  Greatest coverage might end up over southeast Missouri and southern Illinois (especially far west and northern counties)
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  Have a plan B

Wednesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast
:  Cloudy.  Showers likely.  Isolated thunderstorms.  Locally  heavy rain possible.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 48 to 55   IL ~ 48 to 54     KY ~ 50 to 55     TN ~ 50 to 55
Winds: East and southeast winds at 10 to 20 mph.  Gusty winds.
My confidence in the forecast verifying:  High.  This forecast should verify.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Wet roads.  Lightning possible.  Flooding possible.
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
?  MO ~ 80%  IL ~ 80%    KY ~ 80%   TN ~ 80%
Coverage of precipitation
: Widespread.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  Have a plan B

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May 4, 2017
Thursday Forecast Details
Forecast
:  Cloudy.  Showers likely.  Cool.
Temperatures:   MO ~  54 to 58    IL ~ 50 to 56     KY ~ 52 to 56     TN ~ 54 to 60
Winds:  Southwest winds becoming northwest at 10 to 20 mph and gusty.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Wet roads.  Monitor flooding situation.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High.  This forecast should verify.
Is severe weather expected?  No.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
?  MO ~ 80%    IL ~ 80%    KY ~ 80%    TN ~ 80%
Coverage of precipitation
: Widespread
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  Have a plan B.

Thursday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast
: Some clouds.  Chilly.  Showers ending.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 42 to 48   IL ~ 42 to 48     KY ~ 42 to 48     TN ~ 42 to 48
Winds: North winds 10 to 20 mph.
My confidence in the forecast verifying:  Medium.  Some adjustments are possible.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Wet roadways.  Monitor the flood situation.
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
?  MO ~ 50%  IL ~ 50%    KY ~ 50%   TN ~ 50%
Coverage of precipitation
: Scattered
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  Have a plan B.

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May 5, 2017
Fri
day Forecast Details
Forecast
:  A mix of sun and clouds.  Cool.  A few showers possible.
Temperatures:   MO ~  56 to 62    IL ~ 56 to 62     KY ~ 55 to 60     TN ~ 55 to 60
Winds:  North winds 6 to 12 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Wet roadways.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium.  Some adjustments possible.
Is severe weather expected?  No.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
?  MO ~ 40%    IL ~ 40%    KY ~ 40%    TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation
: Scattered
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No

Friday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast
: Mostly clear.  Cool.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 44 to 48    IL ~ 44 to 48     KY ~ 44 to 48     TN ~ 44 to 48
Winds: Northwest winds at 5 to 10 mph
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium.  Some adjustments possible.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
?  MO ~ 10%  IL ~ 10%    KY ~ 10%   TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation
:  None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No

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May 6, 2017
Saturday Forecast Details
Forecast
:  Mix of sun and clouds.  A few showers possible.
Temperatures:   MO  65 ~ 70     IL   65 ~ 70     KY  65 ~ 70      TN  65 ~ 70
Winds:  Variable at 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Wet roadways
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Low.  Significant adjustments are possible.
Is severe weather expected?  No.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
?  MO ~ 30%    IL ~ 30%    KY ~ 30%   TN ~ 30% 
Coverage of precipitation
: Scattered showers.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No, but monitor updated forecasts.

Saturday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast
:  Clearing.  Cool.
Temperatures:  MO   44 ~ 48     IL   44 ~ 48      KY  45 ~ 50      TN  45 ~ 50
Winds: Light winds
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium.  Some adjustments possible.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
?  MO ~ 0%  IL ~ 0%    KY ~ 0%   TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation
:  None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No

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May 7, 2017
Sunday Forecast Details
Forecast
:  Mostly sunny.  It should be a nice day.  Warmer.
Temperatures:   MO ~  70 to 75     IL  70 to 75         KY  70 to 75     TN  72 to 76
Winds: South winds at 5 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High.  This forecast should verify.
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
?  MO ~ 0%    IL ~ 0%    KY ~ 0%    TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation
: None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No

Sunday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast
:  Partly cloudy.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 46 to 52     IL ~ 46  to 52      KY ~ 46 to 52      TN ~ 46 to 52
Winds: South winds at 5 mph
My confidence in the forecast verifying:  Medium.  Some adjustments are possible.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
?  MO ~ 0%  IL ~ 0%    KY ~ 0%   TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation
:  None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No

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Don’t forget to check out the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory web-site for weather maps, tower cams, scanner feeds, radars, and much more!  Click here

beausanalysis

An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming day

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Severe thunderstorm outlook.

Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 60 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.

Wednesday and Thursday: Some thunderstorms are possible.  Locally  heavy rain is the main concern.  Most likely lightning will be limited.  Severe weather is not anticipated.

Friday through Monday: Severe weather is not anticipated.

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Weather analysis for the next few days:

The main weather story for the coming days will be more unwanted rain.  Major to historic flooding is occurring over our region.  Rainfall totals from the weekend topped 11″ across parts of southern Illinois.

A widespread 3″ to 8″ fell over most of the area.  Hardest hit was Missouri and Illinois.

All of this water continues to slowly drain into the larger rivers.  Significant rises are anticipated now through the weekend.

Monitor updated crest forecasts if you live in a flood prone area.  There may be some adjustments with new rain in the forecast.

A warm front will push northward on Tuesday night and Wednesday. This warm front will be accompanied by a few showers and perhaps thunderstorms.  The good news is that severe weather is not anticipated.  It is May and this is typically our peak month for tornadoes.  Each passing day without severe weather, during the Month of May, is a great day in my book.

Widespread rain is likely Wednesday night into Thursday night.  This is when the highest totals are anticipated.  Widespread 1″ to 3″ is forecast for southeast Missouri and southern Illinois.  Widespread 0.50″ to 1″ is anticipated for the Missouri Bootheel, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.

Thunderstorms can always produce pockets of heavier totals.  Keep that in mind.  It is that time of the year.

Let’s take a look at some weather maps

These are model predictions and they won’t be exact.  Take the general idea from them.

These are future-cast radar images.  Green represents rain.  Yellow would be heavier rain.

4 AM future-cast radar
Wednesday morning

Wednesday 4 PM future-cast radar

Thursday 7 am

Thursday 4 pm

Friday 7 am

Rainfall forecast from the NAM model guidance

Rainfall forecast from the GFS forecast guidance

Rainfall forecast from the GEM model

NOAA’s official rainfall forecast through Sunday

NOAA’s official rainfall forecast through Sunday

A lot of precipitation has fallen over the last 14 days.

Here is radar estimated rainfall totals.  Most of this fell between Thursday and Sunday.

A lot of precipitation has fallen over the last 14 days.

Here is radar estimated rainfall totals.  Most of this fell between Thursday and Sunday.

Needless to say, we do not need more rain.  More rain is on the way.

I do not have any severe weather outbreaks in the forecast cards through at least early next week.  We can be thankful for that.

 

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We have regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not update then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared. You may also try restarting your browser. That usually fixes the problem. Occasionally we do have a radar go down. That is why I have duplicates. Thus, if one fails then try another one.

During the winter you can track snow and ice by clicking the winterize button on the local city view interactive radars.

If you have any problems then please send me an email beaudodson@usawx.com

Interactive Weather Radar Page.  Choose the city nearest your location:  Click this link

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Local interactive city radars include St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, Dyersburg, and all of eastern Kentucky.  These are interactive radars.  Local city radars – click here

Regional Radar

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The official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook.  Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).

The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA)

The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook.  Note the dates are at the top of the image.  These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be.  They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.

The Beau Dodson Weather APP is ready for Apple and Android users.  The purpose of this app is for me to deliver your text messages instantly.  ATT and Verizon have not always been reliable when it comes to speed.  The app allows instant delivery.

Some of you have asked if you can keep receiving the texts on your phone and the app.  The answer to that is, yes.  The Android app will automatically allow that to happen.  On the Apple app, however, you will need to go into your app and click settings.  Make sure the green tab is OFF.  Off means you will still receive the texts to your phone and the app.  If you have any questions, then email me at beaudodson@usawx.com

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Here is the download link for the Android version  Click Here

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Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?

I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s.  I have 39 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns.  My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology and a Bachelor’s of Science.

My resume includes:

Member of the American Meteorological Society.

NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador. 

Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management.  I served from 2005 through 2015.

Meteorologist for McCracken County Rescue.  2015 through current

I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.

I am the chief meteorologist for Weather Talk LLC.  I am the owner of Weather Talk LLC.

I am also a business owner in western Kentucky.

Recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross

In 2005 I helped open the largest American Cross shelter in U.S. history in Houston, Texas.  I was deployed to help after Hurricane Katrina and Hurricane Rita.  I was a shelter manager of one of the Houston, Texas shelter divisions.

In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. 

Recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.

If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.

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I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.

There is a lot of noise on the internet.  A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation.  Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.

My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.

  • Communicate in simple terms
  • To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
  • Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, email, texts, and this blog
  • Minimize the “hype” that you might see on some television stations or through other weather sources
  • Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events

Many of the graphics on this page are from www.weatherbell.com

WeatherBell is a great resource for weather model guidance.

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You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions

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