Beau Dodson's WeatherTalk Blog

May 30, 2018: Non-subscriber update. Monitoring storm chances over the coming days.

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Example of a recent severe weather alert.  I issued this well before the official tornado warning.  You would have had plenty of time for you and your family to seek shelter.

 

 

 

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I encourage subscribers to use the app vs regular text messaging.  We have found text messaging to be delayed during severe weather.  The app typically will receive the messages instantly.  I recommend people have three to four methods of receiving their severe weather information.

Remember, my app and text alerts are hand typed and not computer generated.  You are being given personal attention during significant weather events.

 

 

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May 30, 2018
Wednesday F
orecast Details
Forecast
: Partly to mostly cloudy.  Warm and humid.  Morning showers and storms ending.  A chance of spotty afternoon storms.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 84 to 88      IL ~ 85 to 88       KY ~ 85 to 88       TN ~  85 to 88
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 40%      IL ~ 50%       KY ~ 50%          TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous early and then widely scattered late in the day.  We may not see redevelopment later in the day.
Winds:  Southwest at 8 to 16 mph and gusty.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Wet roads and lightning.  Heavy rain possible.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected?  Unlikely, but monitor afternoon storm chances.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor radars
UV Index: 7 to 9  medium to possibly high (depending on cloud cover)
Sunrise: 5:36 AM

 

Wednesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast:  Partly cloudy.  Warm and humid.  Widely scattered showers and thunderstorms.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 68 to 72       IL ~ 68 to 72       KY ~ 68 to 72        TN ~ 68 to 72
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 30%      IL ~  30%       KY ~  30%          TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered
Winds: South and southwest at 5 to 10 mph with gusts to 14 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Wet roadways.  Lightning.  Locally heavy rain.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected?  Isolated reports of small hail and down burst winds are again possible
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No, but check radars
Sunset: 8:08 PM
Moonrise: 9:10 PM Waning Gibbous
Moonset: 6:34 AM

 

May 31, 2018
Thursday F
orecast Details
Forecast
: Partly to mostly cloudy.  Warm and humid.  Intervals of showers and thunderstorms.  Some storms could be severe with high winds and hail.  Heavy rain where storms occur.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 86 to 90      IL ~ 86 to 90       KY ~ 86 to 90       TN ~  86 to 90
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 70%      IL ~ 70%       KY ~ 70%          TN ~ 70%
Coverage of precipitation: At times, widespread
Winds:  Southwest at 6 to 12 mph with gusts to 20 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Wet roads and lightning.  Heavy rain possible.  Hail and high winds possible.  Flash flooding.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? Severe storms are likely.  Large hail and damaging wind being the main concern.  Low end tornado risk, as well.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor updates and radars
UV Index: 9 to 11  High
Sunrise: 5:36 AM

 

Thursday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast:  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Numerous evening showers and storms.  Some storms could be severe.  Locally heavy rain.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 68 to 72       IL ~ 68 to 72       KY ~ 68 to 72        TN ~ 68 to 72
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 70%      IL ~  70%       KY ~  70%          TN ~ 70%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to perhaps numerous
Winds: South and southwest at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Wet roadways.  Lightning.  Locally heavy rain.  Hail and high winds.  Flash flooding possible in the heaviest downpours.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected?  Some storms could become severe.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  Monitor radars and updates.  Rain is possible.
Sunset: 8:09 PM
Moonrise: 10:01 PM Waning Gibbous
Moonset: 7:18 AM

 

June 01, 2018
Friday F
orecast Details
Forecast
: Partly sunny.  Hot and muggy.  Isolated showers and thunderstorms.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 88 to 94      IL ~ 88 to 94       KY ~ 88 to 94       TN ~  88 to 94
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 20%      IL ~ 20%       KY ~ 20%          TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Winds:  Southwest at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Wet roads and lightning.  Heavy rain possible.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected?  Isolated reports of small hail and down burst winds are again possible
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars
UV Index: 10  High
Sunrise: 5:36 AM

 

Friday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast:  Partly cloudy.  An isolated thunderstorm possible.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 66 to 74       IL ~ 68 to 72       KY ~ 68 to 70        TN ~ 68 to 72
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 20%      IL ~  20%       KY ~  20%          TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Winds: Southwest at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Wet roadways.  Lightning.  Locally heavy rain.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected?  Unlikely
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No, but check radars
Sunset: 8:09 PM
Moonrise: 10:43 PM Waning Gibbous
Moonset: 8:06 AM

 

June 02, 2018
Saturday F
orecast Details
Forecast
: Partly sunny.  Hot and humid.  Scattered showers and thunderstorms.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 86 to 92      IL ~ 86 to 92       KY ~ 86 to 92       TN ~  86 to 92
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 30%      IL ~ 30%       KY ~ 30%          TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Winds:  Variable at 5 to 10 mph with gusts to 14
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Wet roads and lightning.  Heavy rain possible.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected?  Some storms could approach severe levels.  Monitor updates.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars
UV Index: 10  High
Sunrise: 5:35 AM

 

Saturday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast:  Partly cloudy.  Scattered thunderstorms possible.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 65 to 70       IL ~ 64 to 68       KY ~ 65 to 70        TN ~ 65 to 70
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 40%      IL ~  40%       KY ~  40%          TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Winds: Southwest at 5 to 10 mph.  Winds becoming variable.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Wet roadways.  Lightning.  Locally heavy rain.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected?  Monitor updates
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No, but check radars
Sunset: 8:09 PM
Moonrise: 11:31 PM Waning Gibbous
Moonset: 8:57 AM

 

June 03, 2018
Sunday F
orecast Details
Forecast
: Partly sunny.  Scattered thunderstorms possible.  Not as warm.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 83 to 86      IL ~ 83 to 86       KY ~ 83 to 86       TN ~  83 to 86
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 30%      IL ~ 30%       KY ~ 30%          TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Winds:  North and northwest at 5 to 10 mph with gusts to 15 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Wet roads and lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected?  Isolated reports of small hail and down burst winds are again possible
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars
UV Index: 10  High
Sunrise: 5:35 AM

 

Sunday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast:  Mostly clear and cooler.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 60 to 65       IL ~ 60 to 65       KY ~ 60 to 65        TN ~ 60 to 65
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 10%      IL ~  10%       KY ~  10%          TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: Most likely none, but monitor updates.
Winds: North at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Most likely none.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected?  Unlikely
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
Sunset: 8:11 PM
Moonrise: 11:59 PM Waning Gibbous
Moonset: 9:50 AM

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RAIN TOTALS

It is important to remember, late spring and summer thunderstorms can drop a lot of rain in a short amount of time.  Rain rates can occasionally exceed 1.5 to 2″ per hour.  This can cause brief periods of flash flooding or ponding of water.

It is next to impossible to forecast which county will receive more rain than a neighboring county.  Typical, for our region.  Your neighbor can pick up a heavy thunderstorm and you end up with just a few drops.

We will have thunderstorm chances over the coming days.  Locally heavy storms.

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Questions?  Broken links?  Other?

You may email me at beaudodson@usawx.com

The National Weather Service defines a severe thunderstorm as one that produces quarter size hail or larger, 58 mph winds or greater, and/or a  tornado.

 

Wednesday through Saturday:  A few storms could be intense today (mainly this afternoon).  There is some question as to whether storms will form.  If storms do form then gusty winds and small hail will be possible.  Locally heavy rain and lightning, as well.

I am closely monitoring the risk of severe weather Thursday afternoon into Thursday night.  The main concern will be large hail and damaging winds.  I can’t rule out a tornado warning.  The overall tornado risk appears low.  Monitor updates.

Storms on Friday, Saturday, and Sunday could approach severe levels.  Monitor updates.

Heavy rain will be  a concern over the coming days.  There will be plenty of moisture available for heavy/tropical downpours.

 

 

Interactive live weather radar page.  Choose the city nearest your location. If one of the cities does not work then try a nearby one.  Click here.

National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.

Storm Prediction Center.  Click here.

Weather Prediction Center.  Click here.

 

 

Live lightning data: Click here.

 

 

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Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.

Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.

 

 

The spring and preliminary summer outlooks have been posted for subscribers.  Scroll down to see the outlook.

Not a subscriber?  Learn more at this link.

 

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Weather Headlines

  1. Alberto leaving the area.
  2. Locally heavy storms over the coming days.
  3. Monitoring the severe weather risk Thursday afternoon into Thursday night.
  4. Warm and muggy week ahead
  5. Perhaps a bit cooler Sunday or Monday.

 

Alberto brought heavy rain to the region overnight.

Rainfall totals of one to three+ inches were reported over portions of southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and northwest Tennessee.  Some locally heavy rain was reported over southeast Missouri, as well.

.The remnants of Alberto will push off to the north and northeast this morning.

Here are some radar estimated rain totals.  Different computer algorithms come up with different numbers.  They are estimates.

The heaviest rain fell across McCracken and Marshall County, Kentucky.

 

 

These are 48 hour totals (below)

 

 

Additional showers and thunderstorms are possible this afternoon into the weekend.

There is some question about whether additional storms will form today.  I have at least a chance of scattered thunderstorms.

There will be plenty of moisture over the coming days.  Dew points will remain in the 70’s.  PWAT values will remain high, as well.  This means locally heavy rain.

Our region typically experiences localized very heavy rain amounts during late May into June.  This will be a concern over the coming days.   Avoid flooded roadways.

Temperatures will rise into the 80’s today.  Widespread 80’s and 90’s are anticipated Thursday into Saturday.  I am watching a possible cold front Sunday or Sunday night.  This could bring a brief period of lower temperatures and lower dew points.

 

Thursday Severe Weather Risk

I am monitoring Thursday and Thursday night for the risk of severe thunderstorms.  Damaging wind and large hail are the main concern.  Monitor updates.

A disturbance or two will push through our region between now and Friday.

Wind shear will increase Thursday afternoon and night.  This could be one of the ingredients that helps spark severe thunderstorms.

Bowing line segments will be possible.  Bowing line segments can cause damaging winds.  Monitor updates.

I don’t have much faith in the computer models when it comes to thunderstorm placement on Thursday.

We will have one chance early in the morning.  That would be between 3 AM and 10 AM.

Another chances of storms will arrive Thursday afternoon and evening.  The afternoon and evening storms are the ones to watch.  IF the atmosphere can destabilize then the risk of severe weather increases.  This will depend on morning cloud cover.  This is an unknown.  Monitor updates.

The Storm Prediction Center has outlined our region for a risk of severe weather Thursday.

CAPE numbers will range from 2500 to 4000.  Dew points well into the 70’s.  Muggy air.  There will be wind shear available for storms.  Lift index values of -8 or lower.  All of that equals the potential of severe thunderstorms.

Dark green is the level one risk zone.  Yellow is the level two risk zone.   Five is the highest risk SPC issues.

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I am also watching Saturday.  The SPC has a risk of severe storms on that day, as well.

 

 

 


A new weather podcast is now available!  Weather Geeks (which you might remember is on The Weather Channel each Sunday)

To learn more visit their website.  Click here.

 

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WeatherBrains Episode 645

The first named storm of 2018 is now in the books, so we’re going to be talking with two experts in the area of tropical weather, Max Mayfield, left, and Bryan Norcross, right.

These two hurricane specialists currently work for WPLG in Fort Lauderdale. They both need no introduction. Max Mayfield, former Director of the National Hurricane Center, and Bryan Norcross, Mr. Hurricane who appeared on the show a few months ago when his book came out.

Max was unable to get connected to the hangout.

Other discussions in this weekly podcast include topics like:

  • Extremes: 111 at Death Valley, CA, and 28 at Leadville, CO
  • Alberto developed in SE Gulf and moved north through Alabama
  • Humongous flooding in Ellicott City, MD
  • 4 lightning deaths in US this year
  • Astronomy Outlook with Tony Rice
  • and more!

 

Previous episodes can be viewed by clicking here.

 

 

We offer interactive local city live radars and regional radars.   If a radar does not update then try another one.  If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5.  You may also try restarting your browser.

The local city view radars also have clickable warnings.

During the winter months, you can track snow and ice by clicking the winterize button on the local city view interactive radars.

You may email me at beaudodson@usawx.com

 

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Did you know that a portion of your monthly subscription helps support local charity projects?

You can learn more about those projects by visiting the Shadow Angel Foundation website and the Beau Dodson News website.

I encourae subscribers to use the app vs regular text messaging.  We have found text messaging to be delayed during severe weather.  The app typically will receive the messages instantly.  I recommend people have three to four methods of receiving their severe weather information.

Remember, my app and text alerts are hand typed and not computer generated.  You are being given personal attention during significant weather events.

 

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