Wednesday morning update
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This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog
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May 2, 2017
Tuesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Some clouds. A shower or thunderstorm possible. Warm front moving northward. I am not anticipating anything severe.
Temperatures: MO ~ 46 to 52 IL ~ 46 to 52 KY ~ 48 to 54 TN ~ 50 to 55
Winds: N NE winds at 8 to 16 mph. Occasionally higher gusts.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments possible.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roads. Lightning.
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 40% IL ~ 40% KY ~ 30% TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Spotty showers possible.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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May 3, 2017
Wednesday Forecast Details
Forecast: Mostly cloudy. Scattered morning showers. A chance for afternoon showers and perhaps a thunderstorm. Cooler over our northern counties vs southern.
Temperatures: MO ~ 55 to 65 IL ~ 55 to 65 KY ~ 62 to 70 TN ~ 66 to 72
Winds: East and northeast at 7 to 14 mph. Gusts to 20 mph.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roads. Lightning. Monitor flooding situation. More rain will not help the situation.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High. This forecast should verify.
Is severe weather expected? No.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 60% IL ~ 50% KY ~ 40% TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered. Greatest coverage might end up over southeast Missouri and southern Illinois (especially far west and northern counties)
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B
Wednesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Cloudy. Showers likely. Isolated thunderstorms. Locally heavy rain possible.
Temperatures: MO ~ 48 to 55 IL ~ 48 to 54 KY ~ 50 to 55 TN ~ 50 to 55
Winds: East and southeast winds at 10 to 20 mph. Gusty winds.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High. This forecast should verify.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roads. Lightning possible. Flooding possible.
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 80% IL ~ 80% KY ~ 80% TN ~ 80%
Coverage of precipitation: Widespread.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B
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May 4, 2017
Thursday Forecast Details
Forecast: Cloudy. Showers likely. Cool.
Temperatures: MO ~ 54 to 58 IL ~ 50 to 56 KY ~ 52 to 56 TN ~ 54 to 60
Winds: Southwest winds becoming northwest at 10 to 20 mph and gusty.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roads. Monitor flooding situation.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High. This forecast should verify.
Is severe weather expected? No.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 80% IL ~ 80% KY ~ 80% TN ~ 80%
Coverage of precipitation: Widespread
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B.
Thursday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Some clouds. Chilly. Showers ending.
Temperatures: MO ~ 42 to 48 IL ~ 42 to 48 KY ~ 42 to 48 TN ~ 42 to 48
Winds: North winds 10 to 20 mph.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Monitor the flood situation.
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 50% IL ~ 50% KY ~ 50% TN ~ 50%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B.
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May 5, 2017
Friday Forecast Details
Forecast: A mix of sun and clouds. Cool. A few showers possible.
Temperatures: MO ~ 56 to 62 IL ~ 56 to 62 KY ~ 55 to 60 TN ~ 55 to 60
Winds: North winds 6 to 12 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments possible.
Is severe weather expected? No.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 40% IL ~ 40% KY ~ 40% TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Friday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Mostly clear. Cool.
Temperatures: MO ~ 44 to 48 IL ~ 44 to 48 KY ~ 44 to 48 TN ~ 44 to 48
Winds: Northwest winds at 5 to 10 mph
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments possible.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 10% IL ~ 10% KY ~ 10% TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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May 6, 2017
Saturday Forecast Details
Forecast: Mix of sun and clouds. A few showers possible.
Temperatures: MO 65 ~ 70 IL 65 ~ 70 KY 65 ~ 70 TN 65 ~ 70
Winds: Variable at 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Low. Significant adjustments are possible.
Is severe weather expected? No.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30% IL ~ 30% KY ~ 30% TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered showers.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updated forecasts.
Saturday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Clearing. Cool.
Temperatures: MO 44 ~ 48 IL 44 ~ 48 KY 45 ~ 50 TN 45 ~ 50
Winds: Light winds
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments possible.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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May 7, 2017
Sunday Forecast Details
Forecast: Mostly sunny. It should be a nice day. Warmer.
Temperatures: MO ~ 70 to 75 IL 70 to 75 KY 70 to 75 TN 72 to 76
Winds: South winds at 5 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High. This forecast should verify.
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Partly cloudy.
Temperatures: MO ~ 46 to 52 IL ~ 46 to 52 KY ~ 46 to 52 TN ~ 46 to 52
Winds: South winds at 5 mph
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming day
Severe thunderstorm outlook.
Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 60 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.
Wednesday and Thursday: Some thunderstorms are possible. Locally heavy rain is the main concern. Most likely lightning will be limited. Severe weather is not anticipated.
Friday through Monday: Severe weather is not anticipated.
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Weather analysis for the next few days:
The main weather story for the coming days will be more unwanted rain. Major to historic flooding is occurring over our region. Rainfall totals from the weekend topped 11″ across parts of southern Illinois.
A widespread 3″ to 8″ fell over most of the area. Hardest hit was Missouri and Illinois.
All of this water continues to slowly drain into the larger rivers. Significant rises are anticipated now through the weekend.
Monitor updated crest forecasts if you live in a flood prone area. There may be some adjustments with new rain in the forecast.
A warm front will push northward on Tuesday night and Wednesday. This warm front will be accompanied by a few showers and perhaps thunderstorms. The good news is that severe weather is not anticipated. It is May and this is typically our peak month for tornadoes. Each passing day without severe weather, during the Month of May, is a great day in my book.
Widespread rain is likely Wednesday night into Thursday night. This is when the highest totals are anticipated. Widespread 1″ to 3″ is forecast for southeast Missouri and southern Illinois. Widespread 0.50″ to 1″ is anticipated for the Missouri Bootheel, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.
Thunderstorms can always produce pockets of heavier totals. Keep that in mind. It is that time of the year.
Let’s take a look at some weather maps
These are model predictions and they won’t be exact. Take the general idea from them.
These are future-cast radar images. Green represents rain. Yellow would be heavier rain.
4 AM future-cast radar
Wednesday morning
Wednesday 4 PM future-cast radar
Thursday 7 am
Thursday 4 pm
Friday 7 am
Rainfall forecast from the NAM model guidance
Rainfall forecast from the GFS forecast guidance
Rainfall forecast from the GEM model
NOAA’s official rainfall forecast through Sunday
NOAA’s official rainfall forecast through Sunday
A lot of precipitation has fallen over the last 14 days.
Here is radar estimated rainfall totals. Most of this fell between Thursday and Sunday.
A lot of precipitation has fallen over the last 14 days.
Here is radar estimated rainfall totals. Most of this fell between Thursday and Sunday.
Needless to say, we do not need more rain. More rain is on the way.
I do not have any severe weather outbreaks in the forecast cards through at least early next week. We can be thankful for that.
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We have regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not update then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared. You may also try restarting your browser. That usually fixes the problem. Occasionally we do have a radar go down. That is why I have duplicates. Thus, if one fails then try another one.
During the winter you can track snow and ice by clicking the winterize button on the local city view interactive radars.
If you have any problems then please send me an email beaudodson@usawx.com
Interactive Weather Radar Page. Choose the city nearest your location: Click this link—
National interactive radar: Click this link.
Local interactive city radars include St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, Dyersburg, and all of eastern Kentucky. These are interactive radars. Local city radars – click here
Regional Radar
The official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).
The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA)
The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Note the dates are at the top of the image. These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be. They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.
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Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?
I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s. I have 39 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns. My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology and a Bachelor’s of Science.
My resume includes:
Member of the American Meteorological Society.
NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador.
Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management. I served from 2005 through 2015.
Meteorologist for McCracken County Rescue. 2015 through current
I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.
I am the chief meteorologist for Weather Talk LLC. I am the owner of Weather Talk LLC.
I am also a business owner in western Kentucky.
Recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross.
In 2005 I helped open the largest American Cross shelter in U.S. history in Houston, Texas. I was deployed to help after Hurricane Katrina and Hurricane Rita. I was a shelter manager of one of the Houston, Texas shelter divisions.
In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award.
Recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.
I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.
There is a lot of noise on the internet. A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation. Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.
My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.
- Communicate in simple terms
- To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
- Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, email, texts, and this blog
- Minimize the “hype” that you might see on some television stations or through other weather sources
- Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events
Many of the graphics on this page are from www.weatherbell.com
WeatherBell is a great resource for weather model guidance.
You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions
