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This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog.
May 27, 2017
Saturday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms possible. A few severe storms over southeast Missouri and west Tennessee. Heavy rain possible. Lightning.
Temperatures: MO ~ 66 to 72 IL ~ 66 to 72 KY ~ 66 to 72 TN ~ 68 to 72
Winds: Southwest at 8 to 16 mph with higher gusts likely.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Damaging winds. Hail. Flash flooding where storms train.
Is severe weather expected? Yes. Thunderstorms could be severe.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 70% IL ~ 80% KY ~ 80% TN ~ 80%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor updates.
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May 28, 2017
Sunday Forecast Details
Forecast: Partly to mostly cloudy. A 30% to 40% for additional showers and thunderstorms. Windy, at times.
Temperatures: MO ~ 76 to 82 IL 76 to 82 KY 76 to 82 TN 76 to 82
Winds: South and southwest winds at 15 to 30 mph becoming westerly and northwesterly as the cold front passes through the area.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
Is severe weather expected? A few storms could be severe. Risk is fairly low for most of the area. Greatest risk over the Pennyrile area of western Kentucky.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30% IL ~ 30% KY ~ 40% TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor updates.
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Sunday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Partly cloudy. Isolated showers and thunderstorms early. Low confidence on any rain remaining in the area.
Temperatures: MO ~ 56 to 62 IL ~ 56 to 62 KY ~ 56 to 62 TN ~ 56 to 62
Winds: Northwest winds at 4 to 8 mph with gusts to 14 mph.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Patchy fog. Perhaps some wet roadways early in the evening. Lightning possible early in the evening. All of this should be on the way out by Sunday afternoon and night.
Is severe weather expected? The severe weather concerns should come to an end by Sunday night.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 30% (before 7 pm) TN ~ 30% (before 7 pm)
Coverage of precipitation: Rain will be coming to an end.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but perhaps check radars early in the evening.
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May 29, 2017
Monday Forecast Details
Forecast: Perhaps some morning patchy fog. Mostly sunny. A few passing clouds. A pleasant day anticipated.
Temperatures: MO ~ 76 to 82 IL 76 to 82 KY 76 to 82 TN 78 to 82
Winds: West winds at 5 to 10 mph.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High. This forecast should verify.
Is severe weather expected? No.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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Monday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Mostly clear. A few passing clouds.
Temperatures: MO ~ 55 to 60 IL ~ 55 to 60 KY ~ 55 to 60 TN ~ 55 to 60
Winds: West and northwest winds at 4 to 8 mph.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None anticipated.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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May 30, 2017
Tuesday Forecast Details
Forecast: Partly sunny.
Temperatures: MO ~ 76 to 82 IL 76 to 82 KY 78 to 84 TN 78 to 82
Winds: West winds at 5 to 10 mph.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
Is severe weather expected? No.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 10% TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: Most likely none.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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Tuesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Partly cloudy. A slight chance of a shower or thunderstorm.
Temperatures: MO ~ 55 to 60 IL ~ 55 to 60 KY ~ 55 to 60 TN ~ 55 to 60
Winds: West and northwest winds at 5 mph.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 20% TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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May 31, 2017
Wednesday Forecast Details
Forecast: Partly sunny. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms over southeast Missouri.
Temperatures: MO ~ 75 to 80 IL 75 to 80 KY 78 to 84 TN 78 to 82
Winds: West winds at 5 to 10 mph.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways and lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
Is severe weather expected? No.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 40% IL ~ 30% KY ~ 30% TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check back for updates
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Wednesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Partly cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms possible.
Temperatures: MO ~ 55 to 60 IL ~ 55 to 60 KY ~ 55 to 60 TN ~ 55 to 60
Winds: West and northwest winds at 5 mph.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely, but monitor updates.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 40% IL ~ 40% KY ~ 40% TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Check back for updates on rain coverage
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Don’t forget to check out the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory web-site for weather maps, tower cams, scanner feeds, radars, and much more! Click here
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A severe thunderstorm is defined as a storm that produces quarter size hail or larger, 58 mph winds or greater, and/or a tornado. That is the official National Weather Service definition of a severe thunderstorm.
Saturday night: A few severe storms possible. Mainly over southeast Missouri and western Tennessee.
Sunday into Monday: A few more storms possible on Sunday. Severe risk is low. Perhaps the greatest risk would be the Pennyrile area of western Kentucky.
Severe weather is not anticipated on Sunday night or Monday.
Weather Analysis for the coming week:
Interactive Weather Radar Page. Choose the city nearest your location: Click this link—
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We have regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not update then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared. You may also try restarting your browser. That usually fixes the problem. Occasionally we do have a radar go down. That is why I have duplicates. Thus, if one fails then try another one.
During the winter you can track snow and ice by clicking the winterize button on the local city view interactive radars.
If you have any problems then please send me an email beaudodson@usawx.com
Interactive Weather Radar Page. Choose the city nearest your location: Click this link—
National interactive radar: Click this link.
Local interactive city radars include St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, Dyersburg, and all of eastern Kentucky. These are interactive radars. Local city radars – click here
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The official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).
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The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA)
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The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Note the dates are at the top of the image. These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be. They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.
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Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?
I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s. I have 39 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns. My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology and a Bachelor’s of Science.
My resume includes:
Member of the American Meteorological Society.
NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador.
Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management. I served from 2005 through 2015.
Meteorologist for McCracken County Rescue. 2015 through current
I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.
I am the chief meteorologist for Weather Talk LLC. I am the owner of Weather Talk LLC.
I am also a business owner in western Kentucky.
Recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross.
In 2005 I helped open the largest American Cross shelter in U.S. history in Houston, Texas. I was deployed to help after Hurricane Katrina and Hurricane Rita. I was a shelter manager of one of the Houston, Texas shelter divisions.
In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award.
Recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.
I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.
There is a lot of noise on the internet. A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation. Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.
My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.
- Communicate in simple terms
- To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
- Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, email, texts, and this blog
- Minimize the “hype” that you might see on some television stations or through other weather sources
- Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events
Many of the graphics on this page are from www.weatherbell.com
WeatherBell is a great resource for weather model guidance.
You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions
