May 26, 2018
Saturday Forecast Details
Forecast: Partly cloudy. Hot and humid. Isolated showers and thunderstorms. Rain could be heavy where storms occur.
Temperatures: MO ~ 85 to 90 IL ~ 85 to 88 KY ~ 85 to 90 TN ~ 85 to 90
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20% IL ~ 30% KY ~ 20% TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated.
Winds: South and southwest 4 to 8 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Isolated wet roads and lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected? A low end risk of severe weather. The concern would be downburst winds.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor radars.
UV Index: 8 – High
Sunrise: 5:38 AM
Saturday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Partly cloudy. Warm. Isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms possible. If thunderstorms form then heavy rain could occur.
Temperatures: MO ~ 66 to 68 IL ~ 66 to 68 KY ~ 66 to 70 TN ~ 66 to 70
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30% IL ~ 30% KY ~ 20% TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated to widely scattered
Winds: Southwest at 5 to 10 mph.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Scattered wet roadways. Lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected? A low end risk of downburst winds. Isolated high wind reports.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars
Sunset: 8:05 PM
Moonrise: 5:19 PM Waxing Gibbous
Moonset: 4:10 AM
May 27, 2018
Sunday Forecast Details
Forecast: A mix of sun and clouds. Hot and humid. A chance of mostly scattered showers and thunderstorms. Locally heavy rain where storms form.
Temperatures: MO ~ 88 to 93 IL ~ 88 to 93 KY ~ 88 to 93 TN ~ 88 to 93
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30% IL ~ 30% KY ~ 30% TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Winds: Northeast and east 4 to 8 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Scattered wet roads and lightning. Locally heavy rain where storms occur.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely, but isolated reports of hail or strong winds are always possible with summer type thunderstorms.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor radars.
UV Index: 8 – High
Sunrise: 5:38 AM
Sunday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Partly cloudy. Warm and humid. Isolated showers and thunderstorms possible.
Temperatures: MO ~ 66 to 70 IL ~ 66 to 70 KY ~ 66 to 70 TN ~ 66 to 70
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 20% TN ~ 2o%
Coverage of precipitation: None to isolated
Winds: East and southeast at 5 to 10 mph.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None to isolated scattered wet roadways. Lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars
Sunset: 8:06 PM
Moonrise: 6:19 PM Waxing Gibbous
Moonset: 4:42AM
May 28, 2018
Monday Forecast Details
Forecast: Quite a bit of sun. Some cumulus clouds. Warm. Humid. A few scattered storms possible. If storms form the could produce heavy rain.
Temperatures: MO ~ 85 to 90 IL ~ 85 to 90 KY ~ 85 to 90 TN ~ 85 to 90
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20% IL ~ 30% KY ~ 30% TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Winds: Variable winds at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Scattered wet roads and lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely, but isolated reports of hail or strong winds are always possible with summer type thunderstorms.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor radars.
UV Index: 9 – Very high
Sunrise: 5:37 AM
Monday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Increasing clouds. A few scattered showers and thunderstorms (mainly late)
Temperatures: MO ~ 65 to 70 IL ~ 65 to 70 KY ~ 65 to 70 TN ~ 65 to 70
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30% IL ~ 30% KY ~ 30% TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Winds: Northeast and east at 4 to 8 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Scattered wet roadways. Lightning. Heavy rain IF storms form.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars
Sunset: 8:07 PM
Moonrise: 7:18 PM Waxing Gibbous
Moonset: 5:16 AM
May 29, 2018
Tuesday Forecast Details
Forecast: Mostly cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms increasingly likely as the remnants of Alberto approaches our local area. Warm and humid. Locally heavy rain where storms occur.
Temperatures: MO ~ 84 to 88 IL ~ 84 to 88 KY ~ 84 to 88 TN ~ 84 to 88
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 50% IL ~ 60% KY ~ 60% TN ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to numerous
Winds: Variable at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Scattered wet roads and lightning. Heavy rain possible.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? Monitor
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor radars.
UV Index: 4 – Low to medium (will need to monitor cloud cover)
Sunrise: 5:37 AM
Tuesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Mostly cloudy. Scattered to perhaps numerous showers and thunderstorms. Locally heavy rain possible.
Temperatures: MO ~ 65 to 70 IL ~ 65 to 70 KY ~ 65 to 70 TN ~ 65 to 70
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 50% IL ~ 70% KY ~ 70% TN ~ 70%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to numerous
Winds: Northeast and east at 4 to 8 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Locally heavy rain.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? Monitor
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars
Sunset: 8:07 PM
Moonrise: 8:16 PM Full Moon
Moonset: 5:54 AM
RAIN TOTALS
It is important to remember, late spring and summer thunderstorms can drop a lot of rain in a short amount of time. Rain rates can occasionally exceed 1.5 to 2″ per hour. This can cause brief periods of flash flooding or ponding of water.
It is next to impossible to forecast which county will receive more rain than a neighboring county. Typical, for our region. Your neighbor can pick up a heavy thunderstorm and you end up with just a few drops.
PWAT values, over the coming days, will be high. That means locally heavy rain is more likely. This is even more true if the tropical system in the Gulf of Mexico develops and moves into our region.
Interactive Radars:
Interactive live weather radar page. Choose the city nearest your location. If one of the city radars won’t load then try a nearby one. Click here.
Questions? Broken links? Other?
You may email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
The National Weather Service defines a severe thunderstorm as one that produces quarter size hail or larger, 58 mph winds or greater, and/or a tornado.
Saturday through Tuesday: Locally heavy thunderstorms are again possible. PWAT values will be high. That means heavy rain. Some areas could experience brief flash flooding. I can’t rule out isolated down-burst winds. These winds can be isolated and likely won’t receive a severe thunderstorm warning. Keep this in mind over the coming weeks.
Interactive live weather radar page. Choose the city nearest your location. If one of the cities does not work then try a nearby one. Click here.
National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.
Storm Prediction Center. Click here.
Weather Prediction Center. Click here.
Live lightning data: Click here.
Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.
Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.
Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.
The spring and preliminary summer outlooks have been posted for subscribers. Scroll down to see the outlook.
Not a subscriber? Learn more at this link.
Weather Headlines.
- Quick weekend update
- Warm, humid, with locally heavy rain.
I continue to monitor Tropical Storm Alberto.
Here is the official National Hurricane Center track forecast.
The cone is the possible path. Don’t zero in on the center of the cone.
A new weather podcast is now available! Weather Geeks (which you might remember is on The Weather Channel each Sunday)
To learn more visit their website. Click here.
WeatherBrains Episode 643
Tonight’s Guest WeatherBrain is a Research Meteorologist at National Severe Storms Laboratory and a visiting Professor of Atmospheric Science at Desert Research Institute and the University of Nevada-Reno. He is the author of the recent AMS Book: Verner Soumi: The Life and Work of the Founder of Satellite Meteorology. He joins us tonight from his daughter’s home in Sacramento. Please welcome Dr. John Lewis to WeatherBrains.
Throughout his career, Dr. Lewis has conducted research that has combined weather analysis with numerical weather prediction. His professional experience has been divided between work in government labs including operational prediction centers and academia. In the past decade, he has led a national research project focused on the weather over the Gulf of Mexico, Project GUFMEX, explored the use of adjoint methods to study model sensitivity, and contributed to the history of science. In 1998, the Environmental Research Laboratories of NOAA assigned Dr. Lewis to Desert Research Institute on a long-term duty assignment. This assignment was made in connection with a 5-year plan to improve weather forecasting in the Western United States. Central to this effort is the use of adjoint models to clarify the relative importance of the various meteorological fields used to initialize deterministic prediction models.
Other discussions in this weekly podcast include topics like:
- Extremes: 102 at Rio Grande Village, TX, and 23 at Stanley, ID, Crested Butte, CO, & Gothic, CO
- Non-tropical low off the west coast of Florida
- Severe weather Tuesday over Mid-Atlantic states
- Serious drought from AZ to West TX
- Fairly warm across the continental US
- Astronomy Outlook with Tony Rice
- and more!
Previous episodes can be viewed by clicking here.
We offer interactive local city live radars and regional radars. If a radar does not update then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.
The local city view radars also have clickable warnings.
During the winter months, you can track snow and ice by clicking the winterize button on the local city view interactive radars.
You may email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
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You can learn more about those projects by visiting the Shadow Angel Foundation website and the Beau Dodson News website.
I encourae subscribers to use the app vs regular text messaging. We have found text messaging to be delayed during severe weather. The app typically will receive the messages instantly. I recommend people have three to four methods of receiving their severe weather information.
Remember, my app and text alerts are hand typed and not computer generated. You are being given personal attention during significant weather events.
