May 20th and 21st, 2017: Cooler weather is on the way.

Saturday evening update

Saturday night update:

I was not happy with my 3 pm to 8 pm forecast. This is why.

The forecast for the last 24~36 hours was as follows

1. A band of intense storms with heavy rain and high winds would push into the region late last night and last into the wee morning hours. I mentioned the potential for patchy flash flooding, as well.

The heaviest activity was forecast to occur over southeast Missouri and southwest Illinois. Confidence as to how much of that thunderstorm complex would hold together further east was low. Meaning, I didn’t know if it would hold together (it didn’t).

2. Then, a lull would develop over the area between 11 am and 3 or 4 pm.

3. Then, a new line of storms would form over southeast Missouri and eastern Arkansas. This line would push into southern Illinois and western Kentucky. The line would then sweep eastward. I mentioned a few severe storms.

4. The cold front would then move through the area overnight into early Sunday morning with perhaps some additional showers and storms.

This is what happened.

1. A band of intense storms swept through the area last night with reports of damaging winds and some flash flooding. Heaviest rain totals were over southeast Missouri and southwest Illinois. Some areas received more than three inches of rain. The line then weakened the further east it travelled.

2. There was a semi-lull to lull between 11 am and 2 pm. At that point the old outflow boundary from the morning storms moved into increasingly unstable atmosphere over western and south central Kentucky and western and central Tennessee. Thunderstorms blew up and became severe over our eastern counties.

An outflow boundary is where old thunderstorms leave an outflow of wind, a temperature shift, a wind-shift line, or a weak area of precipitation.

These outflow boundaries typically become the focus for new thunderstorms. This is where my forecast went wrong. I underestimated how strong that line of storms would become. It became the “main” line of afternoon storms. Just further east than I forecast. It was further east by a good seven to eight counties. About 100 miles further east.

Sinking air then occurred behind these thunderstorms. This caused most of our area to remain rain free through the evening hours. The sun even came up. It was a nice evening (west of the thunderstorms).

What goes up must come down. Thunderstorms are formed from rapidly rising air. That air, however, must also sink.

Typically behind a band of storms we will have subsidence: A sinking or descending motion of air in the atmosphere, usually over a broad area (hundreds of miles). That is what happened today and that is where my forecast went wrong.

This evening:

The cold front remains to our west and a line of showers and storms is forming along that front. That front will sweep through the area.

The forecast this afternoon and evening, for a good chunk of the region, did not verify as anticipated.

I am sure everyone was thrilled as there were many weddings and outdoor events.

I gave it my best shot and this was certainly a difficult forecast over the past few days.

I will post some graphics. The graphics will show you what happened.

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http://www.weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm

Interactive Weather Radar Page. Choose the city nearest your location: Click this link—

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This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog

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May 20, 2017
Saturday Night Forecast Details:
Have a plan B for outdoor events.
Forecast: Mostly cloudy. An 80% for showers and thunderstorms. Some storms will produce heavy rain, gusty winds, and perhaps a few reports of hail.
Temperatures: MO ~ 58 to 64     IL ~ 58 to 64      KY ~ 60 to 65      TN ~ 62 to 66
Winds: South and southwest winds at 5 to 10 mph with gusts to 20 mph. Winds becoming west and perhaps northwest after frontal passage.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High. This forecast should verify.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. A few severe storms possible with high winds and hail. Spotty flash flooding possible.
Is severe weather expected? Monitor updates. Perhaps a few severe storms with the front.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 60% IL ~ 70%    KY ~ 80%   TN ~ 80%
Coverage of precipitation:  Numerous, especially before 1 am.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B. Rain is possible. Monitor radars.

May 21, 2017
Sunday Forecast Details
Forecast: Cooler. A few morning showers remaining. Perhaps a thunderstorms. Rain chances would mainly be confined to western Kentucky. Precipitation will end from west to east through the day. If the front speeds up a bit then most of the day will be dry. Clearing from west to east.
Temperatures:   MO ~  68 to 74      IL  68 to 74      KY 72 to 76     TN 74 to 76
Winds: Winds becoming west and northwest at 7 to 14 mph with gusts to 18 mph.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways and lightning
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
Is severe weather expected? No.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30%    IL ~ 40%    KY ~ 60%    TN ~ 50%
Coverage of precipitation: Decreasing coverage from west to east. Precipitation ending.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No, but have a plan B. Especially during the morning hours.
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Sunday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Partly cloudy and cooler. Patchy fog.
Temperatures: MO ~ 46 to 54 IL ~ 46 to 54 KY ~ 48 to 54 TN ~ 50 to 55
Winds: Northwest winds at 5 to 10 mph.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High. This forecast should verify.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Patchy fog possible.
Is severe weather expected? No.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: Most likely none.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No.

May 22, 2017
Monday Forecast Details
Forecast:  Partly sunny. Some passing clouds. Cooler.
Temperatures:   MO ~ 72 to 76      IL 74 to 78 KY 74 to 78 TN 74 to 78
Winds: North and northwest winds at 4 to 8 mph with gusts to 12 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High. This forecast should verify.
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0%    IL ~ 0%    KY ~ 0%    TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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Monday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast:  Increasing clouds. A 40% for showers and thunderstorms. Perhaps mainly over southeast Missouri late.
Temperatures: MO ~ 54 to 58     IL ~ 54 to 58      KY ~ 54 to 58      TN ~ 54 to 58
Winds: Variable at 5 to 10 mph. Winds becoming south.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Low. Significant adjustments are possible.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 50% IL ~ 40%    KY ~ 30%   TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No

May 23, 2017
Tuesday Forecast Details
Forecast:  Mostly cloudy. A chance for showers and perhaps a thunderstorm.
Temperatures:   MO ~ 72 to 76      IL 72 to 76       KY 72 to 76     TN 72 to 78
Winds: South winds at 5 to 10 mph.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.   Perhaps lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 50%    IL ~ 50%    KY ~ 50%    TN ~ 50%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  Monitor updates.
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Tuesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Cloudy. Showers possible.
Temperatures: MO ~ 48 to 54     IL ~ 48 to 54      KY ~ 50 to 55    TN ~ 50 to 55
Winds:  Northwest 5 to 10 mph with gusts to 15 mph.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Is severe weather expected? No.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30% IL ~ 30%    KY ~ 30%   TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation:  Widely scattered
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates.

May 24, 2017
Wednesday Forecast Details
Forecast: Partly cloudy. A chance for a few showers.
Temperatures:   MO ~  60 to 66       IL  60 to 66       KY  62 to 66     TN  62 to 66
Winds: Northwest at 10 mph.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Wet roadways.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Low. Significant adjustments are possible.
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30%    IL ~ 30%    KY ~ 30%    TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor updated forecasts
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Wednesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Partly cloudy. A slight chance for an evening shower. Cooler.
Temperatures: MO ~ 46 to 52     IL ~ 45 to 52      KY ~ 46 to 52      TN ~ 48 to 54
Winds: Northwest at 5 mph with gusts to 10 mph.
My confidence in the forecast verifying:  Low. Significant adjustments are possible.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20% IL ~ 20%    KY ~ 30%   TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No.

May 25, 2017
Thursday Forecast Details
Forecast: Partly cloudy.
Temperatures: MO ~ 68 to 74 IL 68 to 74 KY 70 to 75 TN 70 to 75
Winds: Northwest at 10 mph.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Low. Significant adjustments are possible.
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 10% IL ~ 10% KY ~ 10% TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: Most likely none.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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Thursday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Partly cloudy.
Temperatures: MO ~ 48 to 54     IL ~ 48 to 54      KY ~ 50 to 55      TN ~ 50 to 55
Winds: Southwest at 5 mph with gusts to 10 mph.
My confidence in the forecast verifying:  Low. Significant adjustments are possible.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20% IL ~ 20%    KY ~ 20%   TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Most likely none.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No

Don’t forget to check out the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory web-site for weather maps, tower cams, scanner feeds, radars, and much more! Click here

beausanalysis

An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming day

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A severe thunderstorm is defined as a storm that produces quarter size hail or larger, 58 mph winds or greater, and/or a tornado. That is the official National Weather Service definition of a severe thunderstorm.

Saturday night through Sunday: A few remaining thunderstorms on Saturday evening. Storms should diminish overnight. If there were to be any storms on Sunday they would be over the Pennyrile area of western Kentucky.

Monday through Wednesday: Dry Monday. Shower and thunderstorm chances may return as early as Monday night and Tuesday. I am not expecting severe weather from Monday through Friday. Lightning is possible.
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Weather Analysis for the coming week:

It has been a busy few days for the weatherman.

Several rounds of showers and thunderstorms have impacted the region. There were some wind damage reports on Friday night. Flash flooding reports, as well. Portions of southwest Illinois have now received over four inches of rain. This is on top of their insane amounts earlier in the month. To say that it has been wet is an understatement. That is true for some, but not all.

Portions of the region had only received trace amounts of precipitation as of Saturday morning. More rain and storms were on the way and that will bump totals up just a bit everywhere else. The forecast was for widespread 0.50″ to 1.00″ and then pockets of two or three times that amount (from training thunderstorms).

Showers and storms will be with us on Saturday night. A cold front is moving through the area. A few showers and thunderstorms may remain into Sunday morning, especially over the Pennyrile area of western Kentucky.

HRRR model shows heavy storms this evening. This is a possibility.

Everyone should be dry by Sunday afternoon into Monday. Cooler air will filter into the region.

Temperatures by Monday morning might dip into the upper 40’s to lower 50’s. I can’t rule out upper 40’s to lower 50’s on Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday nights.

Check out these graphics. Rainfall totals from the last thirty days. Wow.

Click images to enlarge.

North view

Southern view

Regional view

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We have regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not update then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared. You may also try restarting your browser. That usually fixes the problem. Occasionally we do have a radar go down. That is why I have duplicates. Thus, if one fails then try another one.

During the winter you can track snow and ice by clicking the winterize button on the local city view interactive radars.

If you have any problems then please send me an email beaudodson@usawx.com

Interactive Weather Radar Page. Choose the city nearest your location: Click this link—

National interactive radar: Click this link.

Local interactive city radars include St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, Dyersburg, and all of eastern Kentucky. These are interactive radars. Local city radars – click here

The official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).
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The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA)
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The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Note the dates are at the top of the image. These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be. They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.
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The Beau Dodson Weather APP is ready for Apple and Android users. The purpose of this app is for me to deliver your text messages instantly. ATT and Verizon have not always been reliable when it comes to speed. The app allows instant delivery.

Some of you have asked if you can keep receiving the texts on your phone and the app. The answer to that is, yes. The Android app will automatically allow that to happen. On the Apple app, however, you will need to go into your app and click settings. Make sure the green tab is OFF. Off means you will still receive the texts to your phone and the app. If you have any questions, then email me at beaudodson@usawx.com

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Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?

I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s. I have 39 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns. My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology and a Bachelor’s of Science.

My resume includes:

Member of the American Meteorological Society.

NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador.

Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management. I served from 2005 through 2015.

Meteorologist for McCracken County Rescue. 2015 through current

I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.

I am the chief meteorologist for Weather Talk LLC. I am the owner of Weather Talk LLC.

I am also a business owner in western Kentucky.

Recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross.

In 2005 I helped open the largest American Cross shelter in U.S. history in Houston, Texas. I was deployed to help after Hurricane Katrina and Hurricane Rita. I was a shelter manager of one of the Houston, Texas shelter divisions.

In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award.

Recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.

If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.

I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.

There is a lot of noise on the internet. A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation. Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.

My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.

Communicate in simple terms
To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, email, texts, and this blog
Minimize the “hype” that you might see on some television stations or through other weather sources
Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events

Many of the graphics on this page are from www.weatherbell.com

WeatherBell is a great resource for weather model guidance.

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You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions

Beau Dodson's WeatherTalk Blog

May 20th and 21st, 2017: Cooler weather is on the way.

Weather Analysis for the coming week:

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Beau Dodson