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This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog
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May 19, 2017
Friday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Partly cloudy early. Becoming cloud overnight. A 40% for thunderstorms before 10 pm. An increasing chance for showers and storms after midnight as a squall line approaches from Kansas and Oklahoma moving eastward into Missouri and Arkansas. If the line holds together it would move into our region after 3 am. Additional storms may form ahead of the cold front.
Temperatures: MO ~ 66 to 72 IL ~ 66 to 72 KY ~ 66 to 72 TN ~ 68 to 74
Winds: South and southeast at 5 to 10 mph with gusts to 15 mph
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. A few intense storms possible.
Is severe weather expected? Monitor updates. I can’t rule out a few severe storms.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 60% IL ~ 60% KY ~ 50% TN ~ 50%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to perhaps numerous. Scattered early. Numerous late.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B. Evening should be dry across most of the area. Spotty storms possible. Many areas will miss them. Have the plan B just in case. Better to be prepared than not prepared.
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May 20, 2017
Saturday Forecast Details
Forecast: Mostly cloudy during the morning. Periods of sun and clouds during the afternoon. A 70% for showers and thunderstorms before 12 pm. A 40% for showers and storms between 12 pm and 3 pm. An increasing chance for showers and thunderstorms late Saturday afternoon and evening. A cold front will be approaching our area.
Temperatures: MO ~ 80 to 84 IL 80 to 84 KY 80 to 85 TN 80 to 85
Winds: South and southeast at 6 to 12 mph with gusts to 18 mph. Winds becoming south and southwest.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Lightning. Wet roadways. A few storms could produce high winds and hail.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
Is severe weather expected? Monitor updates. Severe weather is possible.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 70% IL ~ 70% KY ~ 60% TN ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to perhaps numerous.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but have a plan B and monitor the radars.
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May 20, 2017
Saturday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Mostly cloudy. A 70% for showers and thunderstorms.
Temperatures: MO ~ 58 to 64 IL ~ 58 to 64 KY ~ 60 to 65 TN ~ 62 to 66
Winds: South and southwest winds at 5 to 10 mph with gusts to 20 mph. Winds becoming west and perhaps northwest after frontal passage.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High. This forecast should verify.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. A few severe storms possible with high winds and hail.
Is severe weather expected? Monitor updates. Perhaps a few severe storms with the front.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 70% IL ~ 70% KY ~ 70% TN ~ 70%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B. Rain is possible. Monitor radars.
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May 21, 2017
Sunday Forecast Details
Forecast: Cooler. A few morning showers remaining. Perhaps a thunderstorms. Rain chances would mainly be confined to western Kentucky. Precipitation will end from west to east through the day. If the front speeds up a bit then most of the day will be dry. Clearing from west to east.
Temperatures: MO ~ 68 to 74 IL 68 to 74 KY 72 to 76 TN 74 to 76
Winds: Winds becoming west and northwest at 7 to 14 mph with gusts to 18 mph.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways and lightning
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
Is severe weather expected? No.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30% IL ~ 40% KY ~ 60% TN ~ 50%
Coverage of precipitation: Decreasing coverage from west to east. Precipitation ending.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but have a plan B. Especially during the morning hours.
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Sunday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Partly cloudy and cooler. Patchy fog.
Temperatures: MO ~ 46 to 54 IL ~ 46 to 54 KY ~ 48 to 54 TN ~ 50 to 55
Winds: Northwest winds at 5 to 10 mph.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High. This forecast should verify.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Patchy fog possible.
Is severe weather expected? No.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: Most likely none.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No.
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May 22, 2017
Monday Forecast Details
Forecast: Partly sunny. Some passing clouds. Cooler.
Temperatures: MO ~ 72 to 76 IL 74 to 78 KY 74 to 78 TN 74 to 78
Winds: North and northwest winds at 4 to 8 mph with gusts to 12 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High. This forecast should verify.
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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Monday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Increasing clouds. A 40% for showers and thunderstorms. Perhaps mainly over southeast Missouri late.
Temperatures: MO ~ 54 to 58 IL ~ 54 to 58 KY ~ 54 to 58 TN ~ 54 to 58
Winds: Variable at 5 to 10 mph. Winds becoming south.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Low. Significant adjustments are possible.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 50% IL ~ 40% KY ~ 30% TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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May 23, 2017
Tuesday Forecast Details
Forecast: Mostly cloudy. A chance for showers and perhaps a thunderstorm.
Temperatures: MO ~ 72 to 76 IL 72 to 76 KY 72 to 76 TN 72 to 78
Winds: South winds at 5 to 10 mph.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Perhaps lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 50% IL ~ 50% KY ~ 50% TN ~ 50%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor updates.
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Tuesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Cloudy. Showers possible.
Temperatures: MO ~ 48 to 54 IL ~ 48 to 54 KY ~ 50 to 55 TN ~ 50 to 55
Winds: Northwest 5 to 10 mph with gusts to 15 mph.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Is severe weather expected? No.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30% IL ~ 30% KY ~ 30% TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates.
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May 24, 2017
Wednesday Forecast Details
Forecast: Partly cloudy. A chance for a few showers.
Temperatures: MO ~ 60 to 66 IL 60 to 66 KY 62 to 66 TN 62 to 66
Winds: Northwest at 10 mph.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Low. Significant adjustments are possible.
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30% IL ~ 30% KY ~ 30% TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor updated forecasts
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Wednesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Partly cloudy. A slight chance for an evening shower. Cooler.
Temperatures: MO ~ 46 to 52 IL ~ 45 to 52 KY ~ 46 to 52 TN ~ 48 to 54
Winds: Northwest at 5 mph with gusts to 10 mph.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Low. Significant adjustments are possible.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 30% TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No.
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May 25, 2017
Thursday Forecast Details
Forecast: Partly cloudy.
Temperatures: MO ~ 68 to 74 IL 68 to 74 KY 70 to 75 TN 70 to 75
Winds: Northwest at 10 mph.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Low. Significant adjustments are possible.
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 10% IL ~ 10% KY ~ 10% TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: Most likely none.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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Thursday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Partly cloudy.
Temperatures: MO ~ 48 to 54 IL ~ 48 to 54 KY ~ 50 to 55 TN ~ 50 to 55
Winds: Southwest at 5 mph with gusts to 10 mph.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Low. Significant adjustments are possible.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 20% TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Most likely none.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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Don’t forget to check out the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory web-site for weather maps, tower cams, scanner feeds, radars, and much more! Click here
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An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming day
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A severe thunderstorm is defined as a storm that produces quarter size hail or larger, 58 mph winds or greater, and/or a tornado. That is the official National Weather Service definition of a severe thunderstorm.
Friday night through Sunday: We will have thunderstorm chances through Saturday night. A few of the storms could produce heavy rain, frequent lightning, high winds, and hail. The tornado risk is low.
A few storms could become severe. The main concern would be damaging winds. A second concern would be hail. I can’t completely rule out a quick QLCS tornado. These are short lived tornadoes. They usually last seconds to a few minutes. They are difficult to warn on.
Next Monday through Wednesday: Dry Monday. Shower and thunderstorm chances may return as early as Monday night and Tuesday. I am not expecting severe weather from Monday through Friday. Lightning is possible.
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Weather Analysis for the coming week:
A messy couple of days ahead of us. This has been a difficult forecast. Many of you have outdoor events this weekend. Timing the rain is nearly impossible. The pattern is such that storms can develop at any given time. Another problem has been coverage. Portions of the region have picked up more than two inches of rain since Wednesday. Other areas have had less than 0.10″.
It is that time of the year. I call it feast or famine. Neighbor has an inch of rain and you end up with almost nothing.
A cold front will move into the region on Saturday afternoon and night. This will bring an end to the precipitation. We first, however, have to move the front through the entire area.
Let’s break it down day by day.
Friday night:
A few scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible before 12 am. There should be an increase in shower and thunderstorms after midnight. A large thunderstorm complex may approach our area from Kansas and Oklahoma. This MCS (thunderstorm complex) will move east and northeast into Missouri and Arkansas.
Speaking of MCS’s. You can watch them on IR satellite.
More information on what an MCS is. Click here.
Here is a great satellite link. You can zoom in on areas. See the controls on the left side of the image.
Locally heavy rain will be possible with any of the storms that form. There is also a risk that a few storms could become severe. Widespread severe weather is not anticipated. High winds would be the main concern. Hail would be a second concern. The tornado risk is low, but not zero.
We will have to monitor any lines of storms. If some of them bow or have line segments then they can produce severe weather. Confidence is fairly low on having actual severe weather reports. Monitor updates, as always. I will be sending out text messages if need be.
Outdoor events will also have to concern themselves with lightning. Remember, event organizers can be legally responsible for the safety of the public at those events.
Saturday and Saturday night:
We should have showers and thunderstorms in our area on Saturday morning. We may have a break in the thunderstorm chances as we move into late morning and early afternoon. Showers and thunderstorms will increase during the afternoon and evening.
The greatest coverage of showers and thunderstorms will likely be late Friday night into early Saturday morning and then again along the cold front late Saturday afternoon into Saturday night.
Rainfall totals of 0.50″ to 1.00″ are likely between now and Sunday morning. Slow moving thunderstorms can easily double or triple those amounts. There is a slight risk for flash flooding.
Sunday into Monday:
Showers and thunderstorms will end on Sunday morning. I am hopeful that the front will exit fairly early in the day. This would end precipitation concerns.
Monday will be dry.
Another storm system will approach on Monday night and Tuesday. Shower chances will once again increase. There is a chance for rumbles of thunder. Heavy rain is not anticipated. Severe weather is not anticipated.
Wednesday through Sunday:
The jet stream may become more north or northwest into our region. This is called northwest flow. This will impact temperatures. Below normal temperatures are likely next week. This pattern will also favor fast moving storm systems. I have included at least some rain chances for Wednesday into Thursday. I am sure there will be some adjustments in the numbers between now and then.
I know many of you need a week of dry weather. I don’t see it, yet. I know farmers are having some issues. The good news is that heavy rain appears unlikely next week. Confidence is medium. We will have a few chances for precipitation.
The long range pattern favors above normal rainfall into June. It also favors below normal temperatures for several weeks to come.
Let’s look at a few maps.
This first set of maps is the HRRR model guidance. This is one model’s opinion of what radar might look like Friday night into Saturday. Again, this a model. It is used for guidance and not gospel. That means you should take general ideas from the graphics and not specifics.
This first graphic is the low level jet for Saturday morning. Those green and yellow colors indicate winds of 30 to 45 knots. Not overly impressive, but sufficient for enhancing precipitation.
The low level jet typically increases during the night and decreases during the day (not always, but usually)
This map is for 11 pm on Friday. You can click the images to enlarge them.
This is the 1 am future-cast radar.
This is the 4 am Saturday future-cast radar
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The central United States will be dealing with a deep trough next week. That means cooler weather.
This is the Tuesday jet stream map. Notice a difference? Winds are diving in from the north and then more straight across our region. A trough in the central United States.
This is the Wednesday morning. Deep trough in the central United States.
This is the jet stream next Friday. Deep trough in the central United States.
It will definitely be cooler next week. The question is how cool. On days with clouds and precipitation we might only top out in the 60’s.
Here are some of the forecast numbers from different models.
Tuesday afternoon high temperatures
7 am Wednesday temperatures
Wednesday afternoon highs
Thursday morning temperatures
Long range charts show below normal temperatures are favored for the next four weeks. I am not a huge fan of long range, but that is what they are showing.
Above normal precipitation, as well.
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We have regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not update then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared. You may also try restarting your browser. That usually fixes the problem. Occasionally we do have a radar go down. That is why I have duplicates. Thus, if one fails then try another one.
During the winter you can track snow and ice by clicking the winterize button on the local city view interactive radars.
If you have any problems then please send me an email beaudodson@usawx.com
Interactive Weather Radar Page. Choose the city nearest your location: Click this link—
National interactive radar: Click this link.
Local interactive city radars include St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, Dyersburg, and all of eastern Kentucky. These are interactive radars. Local city radars – click here
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The official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).
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The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA)
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The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Note the dates are at the top of the image. These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be. They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.
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Some of you have asked if you can keep receiving the texts on your phone and the app. The answer to that is, yes. The Android app will automatically allow that to happen. On the Apple app, however, you will need to go into your app and click settings. Make sure the green tab is OFF. Off means you will still receive the texts to your phone and the app. If you have any questions, then email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
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Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?
I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s. I have 39 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns. My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology and a Bachelor’s of Science.
My resume includes:
Member of the American Meteorological Society.
NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador.
Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management. I served from 2005 through 2015.
Meteorologist for McCracken County Rescue. 2015 through current
I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.
I am the chief meteorologist for Weather Talk LLC. I am the owner of Weather Talk LLC.
I am also a business owner in western Kentucky.
Recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross.
In 2005 I helped open the largest American Cross shelter in U.S. history in Houston, Texas. I was deployed to help after Hurricane Katrina and Hurricane Rita. I was a shelter manager of one of the Houston, Texas shelter divisions.
In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award.
Recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.
I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.
There is a lot of noise on the internet. A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation. Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.
My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.
- Communicate in simple terms
- To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
- Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, email, texts, and this blog
- Minimize the “hype” that you might see on some television stations or through other weather sources
- Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events
Many of the graphics on this page are from www.weatherbell.com
WeatherBell is a great resource for weather model guidance.
You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions
