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This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog
Some rivers remain above flood stage.
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May 17, 2017
Interactive Weather Radar Page. Choose the city nearest your location: Click this link
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Wednesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Partly to mostly cloudy. A 60% chance for showers and thunderstorms.
Temperatures: MO ~ 66 to 72 IL ~ 66 to 72 KY ~ 66 to 72 TN ~ 66 to 74
Winds: South and southwest at 10 to 25 mph. Higher gusts likely before 11 pm.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Is severe weather expected? If thunderstorms form, then they could produce small hail and strong winds. The overall threat for severe weather is small. A non-zero risk.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 60% IL ~ 60% KY ~ 60% TN ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to numerous over portions of the area.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor radars.
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May 18, 2017
Thursday Forecast Details
Forecast: Partly to mostly cloudy. A 40% for showers and thunderstorms. Warm.
Temperatures: MO ~ 78 to 84 IL 78 to 84 KY 78 to 84 TN 78 to 84
Winds: South and southwest at 7 to 14 mph. Gusty
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 40% IL ~ 40% KY ~ 40% TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor radars. A few storms are possible.
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Thursday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Partly cloudy. A 40% to 50% for showers and thunderstorms. Perhaps somewhat higher rain chances late tonight over southeast Missouri and southern Illinois. Some of the data indicates a band of storms approaching from southern and central Missouri and moving eastward after 12 am on Friday.
Temperatures: MO ~ 66 to 74 IL ~ 64 to 72 KY ~ 65 to 70 TN ~ 65 to 70
Winds: South and southwest becoming south and southeast at 6 to 12 mph with gusts to 20 mph
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely, but monitor updates.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 60% IL ~ 50% KY ~ 40% TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to perhaps numerous. Greatest coverage might end up being after 12 am Friday.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor radars. There will be some storms around the area.
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May 19, 2017
Friday Forecast Details
Forecast: Partly to mostly cloudy. Warm and humid. A 40% to 50% chance for showers and thunderstorms.
Temperatures: MO ~ 82 to 86 IL 80 to 85 KY 82 to 86 TN 82 to 86
Winds: South and southeast at 6 to 12 mph with gusts to 18 mph. Winds becoming more southerly through the day.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways and lightning. Intense storms possible with gusty winds and perhaps hail.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
Is severe weather expected? Monitor updates. I can’t rule out a few severe storms.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 50% IL ~ 50% KY ~ 40% TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to perhaps numerous.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor radars. There will be showers and storms in the area. Perhaps greatest coverage will be across southeast Missouri and southern Illinois between 12 am and 11 am.
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Friday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Partly cloudy. A 40% for thunderstorms.
Temperatures: MO ~ 65 to 70 IL ~ 65 to 70 KY ~ 65 to 70 TN ~ 65 to 70
Winds: South and southeast at 5 to 10 mph with gusts to 15 mph
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. A few intense storms possible.
Is severe weather expected? Monitor updates. I can’t rule out a few severe storms.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 40% IL ~ 40% KY ~ 40% TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor radars. There will be at least some risk for precipitation.
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May 20, 2017
Saturday Forecast Details
Forecast: Partly cloudy. A 60% chance for showers and storms. Chances will be with us during the morning and afternoon.
Temperatures: MO ~ 84 to 86 IL 84 to 86 KY 84 to 86 TN 84 to 86
Winds: South and southeast at 6 to 12 mph with gusts to 18 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Lightning. Wet roadways
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
Is severe weather expected? Monitor updates
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 60% IL ~ 60% KY ~ 60% TN ~ 50%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to perhaps numerous
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but have a plan B and monitor the radars.
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Saturday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Mostly cloudy. An 80% for showers and thunderstorms.
Temperatures: MO ~ 60 to 65 IL ~ 60 to 65 KY ~ 60 to 65 TN ~ 62 to 66
Winds: South and southwest winds at 5 to 10 mph with gusts to 20 mph. Winds may shift more southwest and west after 2 am.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High. This forecast should verify.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. A few intense storms possible.
Is severe weather expected? Monitor updates. Perhaps a few intense storms with the front.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 80% IL ~ 80% KY ~ 80% TN ~ 80%
Coverage of precipitation: Becoming numerous
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B. Rain is possible. Monitor radars.
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May 21, 2017
Sunday Forecast Details
Forecast: A 60% chance for morning showers and thunderstorms. A 40% chance for afternoon showers and a slight chance for thunderstorms. Rain will end west to east.
Temperatures: MO ~ 72 to 76 IL 72 to 76 KY 72 to 78 TN 74 to 78
Winds: Winds becoming west and northwest at 7 to 14 mph with gusts to 18 mph.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways and lightning
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely, but monitor updates. Storms along the cold front could be intense.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 60% IL ~ 60% KY ~ 60% TN ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation: Perhaps numerous during the morning hours. Scattered afternoon.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B. Rain is possible. Monitor radars.
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Sunday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Any remaining showers will end. Partly cloudy and cooler. Patchy fog.
Temperatures: MO ~ 52 to 58 IL ~ 52 to 58 KY ~ 55 to 60 TN ~ 55 to 60
Winds: Northwest winds at 5 to 10 mph.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High. This forecast should verify.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Patchy fog possible.
Is severe weather expected? No.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 10% IL ~ 10% KY ~ 20% TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Ending.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No.
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May 22, 2017
Monday Forecast Details
Forecast: Partly cloudy.
Temperatures: MO ~ 74 to 78 IL 74 to 78 KY 74 to 78 TN 74 to 78
Winds: West and northwest winds at 5 to 10 mph with gusts to 15 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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Monday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Increasing clouds. A 40% for showers and thunderstorms.
Temperatures: MO ~ 54 to 58 IL ~ 54 to 58 KY ~ 54 to 58 TN ~ 54 to 58
Winds: Variable at 5 to 10 mph
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Low. Significant adjustments are possible.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 40% IL ~ 40% KY ~ 40% TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation:
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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May 23, 2017
Tuesday Forecast Details
Forecast: Partly sunny. A chance for showers and thunderstorms.
Temperatures: MO ~ 74 to 78 IL 74 to 78 KY 74 to 78 TN 74 to 78
Winds: Variable winds at 5 to 10 mph.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 50% IL ~ 50% KY ~ 50% TN ~ 50%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor updates.
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Tuesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Cloudy. A chance for showers and thunderstorms.
Temperatures: MO ~ 60 to 65 IL ~ 60 to 65 KY ~ 60 to 65 TN ~ 60 to 65
Winds: South 5 to 10 mph with gusts to 15 mph.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely, but monitor updates.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30% IL ~ 30% KY ~ 30% TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor updates.
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May 24, 2017
Wednesday Forecast Details
Forecast: Partly cloudy. A chance for a few showers.
Temperatures: MO ~ 70 to 75 IL 70 to 75 KY 70 to 75 TN 70 to 75
Winds: Northwest at 10 mph.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Low. Significant adjustments are possible.
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30% IL ~ 30% KY ~ 30% TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor updated forecasts
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Wednesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Partly cloudy. A chance for showers.
Temperatures: MO ~ 50 to 55 IL ~ 50 to 55 KY ~ 50 to 55 TN ~ 50 to 55
Winds: Northwest at 5 mph.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Low. Significant adjustments are possible.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30% IL ~ 30% KY ~ 30% TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor updates.
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Don’t forget to check out the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory web-site for weather maps, tower cams, scanner feeds, radars, and much more! Click here
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An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming day
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A severe thunderstorm is defined as a storm that produces quarter size hail or larger, 58 mph winds or greater, and/or a tornado. That is the official National Weather Service definition of a severe thunderstorm.
Wednesday through Sunday: Strong and gusty non-thunderstorm winds are likely late Tuesday night into Wednesday night. Gusts above 50 mph possible. These winds will be associated with a tightening pressure gradient.
Thunderstorm chances will increase on Wednesday afternoon into Sunday. Isolated storms possible Wednesday afternoon and night over southeast Missouri and southern Illinois. Lesser chances elsewhere.
On and off thunderstorm chances Wednesday night into Sunday. Perhaps peak times for thunderstorms will be Friday into Saturday night. Confidence is low when it comes to the exact timing of each round of thunderstorms. A series of upper level disturbances will push through the region. At this time, widespread severe weather is not anticipated. I certainly can’t rule out isolated severe weather reports.
I will be monitoring the incoming cold front on Saturday night or Sunday. There could be an uptick in the severe weather risk with the front.
Monitor updates.
Locally heavy rain will be possible with thunderstorms that form.
Next Monday through Wednesday: Dry Monday. Storms are again possible late Tuesday or Tuesday night into Wednesday. Too early to know if severe weather is a concern.
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Weather Analysis for the coming week:
A semi-active pattern over the coming days. A series of upper level disturbances will push through our region.
We will have at least isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms from now through Sunday.
The greatest coverage of precipitation should be on Friday/Friday night and then Saturday night and Sunday morning. Those time periods will have at least 50% to 60% chances for precipitation. Other time periods will likely remain in the 30% to 40% range.
I am not anticipating widespread severe weather in our region. There is the risk for isolated severe thunderstorms. Gusty winds and hail would be the main concern. Heavy downpours and lightning, of course.
Rainfall totals between now and Sunday should range from 0.50″ to 1.00″. Locally higher amounts are likely in thunderstorms. It is that time of the year. Slow moving storms can drop an inch or two of rain in less than thirty minutes.
As is typically the case, some areas might not receive as much rain as others. Seems every event we have the haves and have nots. This one will be no different.
It will be warm from now through Sunday. Daily highs mostly in the 80’s and overnight lows mostly in the 60’s. Highs on Sunday may remain in the 70’s (behind the cold front).
We should have dry conditions Sunday night through Monday afternoon.
I am watching another system for Monday night into Tuesday night. Not sure on the exact timing of that event. It would also deliver some shower and thunderstorm chances.
The good news is that widespread severe weather is not anticipated through the extended. Monitor updates, as always. Forecast can change.
Below normal temperatures with northwest flow is likely next week. Normally northwest flow means active. Fast moving jet stream. This will need to be monitored, as always.
Normal low temperatures, for this time of the year, are around 57 degrees. Normal high temperatures are in the lower 70’s.
Here are some temperature anomaly maps. How many degrees above or below normal will temperatures be next week?
Monday morning
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Thursday morning
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Friday afternoon
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Sunday
As you can see, we will have numerous days with below normal temperatures. I picked a few to show you. The days I left out are also going to have below normal temperatures.
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We have regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not update then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared. You may also try restarting your browser. That usually fixes the problem. Occasionally we do have a radar go down. That is why I have duplicates. Thus, if one fails then try another one.
During the winter you can track snow and ice by clicking the winterize button on the local city view interactive radars.
If you have any problems then please send me an email beaudodson@usawx.com
Interactive Weather Radar Page. Choose the city nearest your location: Click this link—
National interactive radar: Click this link.
Local interactive city radars include St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, Dyersburg, and all of eastern Kentucky. These are interactive radars. Local city radars – click here
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The official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).
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The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA)
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The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Note the dates are at the top of the image. These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be. They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.
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The Beau Dodson Weather APP is ready for Apple and Android users. The purpose of this app is for me to deliver your text messages instantly. ATT and Verizon have not always been reliable when it comes to speed. The app allows instant delivery.
Some of you have asked if you can keep receiving the texts on your phone and the app. The answer to that is, yes. The Android app will automatically allow that to happen. On the Apple app, however, you will need to go into your app and click settings. Make sure the green tab is OFF. Off means you will still receive the texts to your phone and the app. If you have any questions, then email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
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Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?
I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s. I have 39 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns. My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology and a Bachelor’s of Science.
My resume includes:
Member of the American Meteorological Society.
NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador.
Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management. I served from 2005 through 2015.
Meteorologist for McCracken County Rescue. 2015 through current
I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.
I am the chief meteorologist for Weather Talk LLC. I am the owner of Weather Talk LLC.
I am also a business owner in western Kentucky.
Recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross.
In 2005 I helped open the largest American Cross shelter in U.S. history in Houston, Texas. I was deployed to help after Hurricane Katrina and Hurricane Rita. I was a shelter manager of one of the Houston, Texas shelter divisions.
In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award.
Recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.
I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.
There is a lot of noise on the internet. A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation. Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.
My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.
- Communicate in simple terms
- To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
- Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, email, texts, and this blog
- Minimize the “hype” that you might see on some television stations or through other weather sources
- Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events
Many of the graphics on this page are from www.weatherbell.com
WeatherBell is a great resource for weather model guidance.
You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions
