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This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog.
Remember that weather evolves. Check back frequently for updates, especially during active weather.
Sunday Night – Cloudy. A shower or thunderstorm possible.
Temperatures: Lows in the 44-48 degree range
Winds: Winds variable at 5-10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 30%-40%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated to perhaps scattered. Mainly late.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? Not at this time
What impact is expected? Lightning. Wet roads
Monday – Partly to mostly cloudy. Showers likely. Small chance for lightning.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 62-66 degree range.
Winds: East and northeast winds at 6-12 mph with gusts to 18 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? 50%-60%
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Rain is possible
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely
What impact is expected? Wet roads. Lightning.
Monday Night – Cloudy. A chance for showers and perhaps a few non-severe thunderstorms
Temperatures: Lows in the 48-54 degree range
Winds: Winds east and southeast at 5-10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 60%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to numerous
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Maybe have a plan B
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely
What impact is expected? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Tuesday – Partly sunny. A shower or thunderstorm possible.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 64-68 degree range.
Winds: East and northeast winds at 6-12 mph with gusts to 18
What is the chance for precipitation? 60%-70%
Coverage of precipitation? Numerous
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Maybe have a plan B
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Tuesday Night – Cloudy. A few showers possible.
Temperatures: Lows in the 48-54 degree range
Winds: Winds east at 5-10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 50%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor radars
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely
What impact is expected? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Wednesday – Partly sunny.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 68-74 degree range.
Winds: Northeast and east winds at 6-12 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? 10%
Coverage of precipitation? Isolated early
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? None
Wednesday Night – Partly cloudy.
Temperatures: Lows in the 52-56 degree range
Winds: Winds east at 5-10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? None
Thursday – Partly sunny.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 72-76 degree range.
Winds: East winds at 6-12 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Medium
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? None
Thursday Night – Partly cloudy. Small chance for an overnight shower or thunderstorm. More likely on friday.
Temperatures: Lows in the 54-58 degree range
Winds: Winds east and southeast at 5-10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 10%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Low
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? None
Friday – Partly to perhaps mostly cloudy. A shower or thunderstorm possible.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 70-75 degree range.
Winds: Southeast winds at 6-12 mph with gusts to 18
What is the chance for precipitation? 40%-50%
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered (but monitor for changes)
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Medium
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor
Is severe weather expected? Monitor
What impact is expected? Lightning. Wet roadways.
Friday Night – Partly cloudy. Thunderstorms possible.
Temperatures: Lows in the 58-64 degree range
Winds: Winds south at 5-10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 40%-50% (but might need to be increased depending on storm track)
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Low
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor
Is severe weather expected? Monitor
What impact is expected? Lightning and wet roadways.
Saturday – Partly cloudy. A thunderstorm possible.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 74-78 degree range.
Winds: South winds at 6-12 mph with gusts to 15
What is the chance for precipitation? 40%
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered (but monitor for changes)
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Low
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor
Is severe weather expected? Monitor
What impact is expected? Lightning. Wet roadways.
Saturday Night – Partly cloudy.
Temperatures: Lows in the 58-64 degree range
Winds: Winds south at 5-10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 20%
Coverage of precipitation:
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Low
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?
Is severe weather expected?
What impact is expected?
Sunday – Partly sunny.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 70-75 degree range.
Winds: West winds at 10 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation?
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Low
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected?
What impact is expected?
Sunday Night – Mostly clear.
Temperatures: Lows in the 50-55 degree range
Winds: Winds west at 5-10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Low
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected?
What impact is expected?
The School Bus Stop Forecast is sponsored by Heath Health and Wellness. Located next to Crowell Pools in Lone Oak, Kentucky.
Visit their web-site here. And. visit Heath Health Foods on Facebook!
The School Bus Stop Forecast is sponsored by Heath Health and Wellness. Located next to Crowell Pools in Lone Oak, Kentucky.
Visit their web-site here. And. visit Heath Health Foods on Facebook!
Heath Health Foods is a locally owned and operated retail health and wellness store. Since opening in February 2006; the store has continued to grow as a ministry with an expanding inventory which also offers wellness appointments and services along with educational opportunities. Visit their web-site here. And. visit Heath Health Foods on Facebook!
The weekend forecast is sponsored by Farmer and Company Real Estate.
The weekend forecast is sponsored by Farmer and Company Real Estate. Click here to visit their site.
Don’t forget to check out the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory web-site for weather maps, tower cams, scanner feeds, radars, and much more! Click here
An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming days…
- Brrr
- Rain moving into the region
- Monitoring Friday and Saturday
Well, it was certainly cold over the region on Sunday morning. Widespread upper 30s and lower 40s were reported in the region. Well below normal.
Thankfully, our sharp cold snap is moving out. It will be replaced by somewhat milder temperatures and rain. A few rumbles of thunder will be possible on Monday afternoon into Tuesday. Severe weather is not anticipated. Thankfully. We have had our share of severe storms. Let’s hope we can cruise through the rest of spring without additional outbreaks. I know the odds are not on our side, but we can still hope! This year has been fairly quiet when it comes to severe storms. A couple of events. Normally we have numerous events.
Rain should come to an end by Wednesday and Thursday. But, not for long. I am already tracking another storm system in the medium range charts.
Another system approaches our region on Thursday night and Friday. Expect showers and thunderstorms to develop overnight on Thursday and especially on Friday. Some of the storms could produce locally heavy rain. Just a little bit too far out in the forecast to know if severe weather is a concern. As always, monitor the latest updates. I will be on top of the situation!
Hoping Saturday night and Sunday will end up dry. But, lower confidence on the long range.
Let’s take a look at the future-cast radar for Monday into Tuesday. This is what the NAM WRF believes radar will look like at different time frames over the coming days.
This first image is for 7 am on Monday. Green and yellow represents rain. Red might be some thunderstorms or locally heavy downpours.
Images are from weatherbell. com and click the image to enlarge it
1 PM Monday
7 PM on Monday
1 AM Tuesday
7 AM Tuesday
Can we expect severe thunderstorms over the next 24 to 48 hours? Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.
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Sunday night: No severe weather threats.
Severe weather is not anticipated Sunday through Thursday. Some lightning will be possible Monday afternoon into Tuesday.
Friday and Saturday: Monitoring for some thunderstorms.
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No major changes.
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No concerns!
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Umbrellas might be needed late Sunday night into Tuesday night.
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How much precipitation should we expect over the next few days?
More rain! Rain arrives late tonight into Monday. Rain will last into Tuesday afternoon and evening. Rain should end overnight on Tuesday. Widespread 0.50″-1.00″ of rain is anticipated. Pockets of greater than 1″ likely. There could be some locally heavy downpours. Severe weather is not anticipated.
Another rain maker arrives Friday and Saturday. Total rainfall over the next 7 days could top 2″ over parts of the region.
When you add in the Friday-Saturday rain chances you come up with this map
Here are the current river stage forecasts. You can click your state and then the dot for your location. It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.
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Here is the official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).
The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA).
The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Note the dates are at the top of the image. These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be. They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.
Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?
I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s. I have 37 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns. My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology from Mississippi State University and an Associate of Science (AS). I am currently working on my Bachelor’s Degree in Geoscience.
My resume includes:
Member of the American Meteorological Society.
NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador.
Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management. I served from 2005 through 2015.
I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.
Recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross.
In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award.
Recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.
There is a lot of noise on the internet. A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation. Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.
My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.
- Communicate in simple terms
- To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
- Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, and the blog
- Minimize the “hype” that you might see on television or through other weather sources
- Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events
I am a recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross. In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. I was recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.
Many of my graphics are from www.weatherbell.com – a great resource for weather data, model data, and more
You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions.
