Beau Dodson's WeatherTalk Blog

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🌪️ Seven-Day Tornado Outlook ⛈️

May 15th through May 21st

Current risk:  Monitor Updates.

Current confidence level: Medium.

Comments:  I will monitor next week.

At this time, the Storm Prediction Center (NOAA/NWS) has outlined portions of the Missouri Valley for severe weather on Monday and Tuesday.

Monday’s outlook currently stays to our west northwest.  The yellow zone.

I would not be surprised to see portions of our region added to a low-level one risk.

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Then, on Tuesday, the SPC outlined portions of our region at risk for severe weather.

The yellow zone is a level two out of five severe weather risk.  I expect a level one risk to be added, as well (in future updates).  The level one risk would likely cover a large portion of our region (east of the yellow zone).

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Here is your bus stop forecast 

This morning

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This afternoon

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Tomorrow morning

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Tomorrow afternoon

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Seven-day outlook graphic.

See the video and graphics below for more details specific to your county.  This is a broad-brush overview of the entire region.

See the rainfall probability graphics below.

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What is the primary weather concern today and tonight?

A few thunderstorms are possible today over mainly my northern counties.  Otherwise, breezy and warm today.

Here is the % chance of thunderstorms today.

As you can see, mainly my northern counties.  See the live radar links below and/or at the bottom of this post.

This is what the infra-red satellite looked like at 4:30 AM.

The colors represent cloud top temperatures.  The deep red colors are very cold cloud tops.  Cumulonimbus clouds.  Thunderstorms.

A complex of storms north of St Louis is moving east southeast.

Here is what the 4 AM radar looked like, as well.   Most of this will stay to our north.  Clipping my northern counties, perhaps.

See the live radar links below.

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Radars and Lightning Data

Interactive-city-view radars. Clickable watches and warnings.
https://wtalk.co/B3XHASFZ

Regional Radar
https://imagery.weathertalk.com/prx/RadarLoop.mp4

** NEW ** Zoom radar with chaser tracking abilities!
ZoomRadar

Lightning Data (zoom in and out of your local area)
https://wtalk.co/WJ3SN5UZ

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Here are the early morning current conditions.  These are the 4 AM readings.

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Rainfall total maps through next Thursday night.  Slow-moving thunderstorms can enhance totals.

The bulk of this will fall next week.

The WPC graphics are bullish on totals.  Many events, over the past few months, have underperformed.  We will see how this one verifies.

A safe forecast would be a widespread 0.70″ to 1.40″  We can hope we go above those numbers.  Drought continues to be an issue.

These graphics from the WPC/NOAA are a bit higher than that.

Double-click on images to enlarge them.

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Key Points

• Temperatures and humidity will start feeling more like summer today and continue into early next week.
  High temperatures will average about 10 degrees above normal, with many areas in the mid to upper 80s and some reaching the low 90s.
• Friday and Saturday: There is a 30–60% chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly across the northern half of the region. See the rain probability graphics below.
• Early to mid next week: Rain and storm chances will increase to 60–80%, especially Tuesday and Wednesday.  Again, see the rain probability graphics below.
  There is about a 40–60% chance that some areas will receive at least 1 inch of rain by Wednesday night.
• There is also a small risk of a few strong storms or locally heavy rainfall, most likely on Tuesday afternoon.  I will monitor Monday through Thursday.

Discussion

Drought continues to be an issue across much of the country.

Double-click images to enlarge them.

Here is the % of rainfall over the last sixty days.

Way below average.

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Warm Days Ahead

Heat and humidity will increase today, with highs reaching around 80 degrees or higher, especially in southeast Missouri.

Dew points will increase over the coming days.  Dew points are what make it feel muggy outside.  Humid.

We will start to see dew points in the upper 60s to middle 70s.  Humid.

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At first, dry air near the ground may keep showers and storms from developing, even though warmer and more humid air is moving in.

A complex of thunderstorms is moving across portions of Missouri and Illinois this morning.  This complex will mostly stay to our north, although it may clip northern portions of southern Illinois into Indiana.  See the live radar links above.

Another weak weather system will approach later today, bringing small chances of showers and storms this evening, especially across southeast Missouri and southwest Illinois.

These chances will spread across the northern two-thirds of the region overnight into early Saturday morning. Rain will not be widespread, and the chance of rain at any one location will remain below 50% through about mid-morning Saturday, but a few showers are possible.  See the rainfall probability graphics below for your county.

Here is the Hrrr future-cast radar for tonight and tomorrow morning.  What radar might look like if this model is correct.

This won’t be exact, but take the general idea.

If you have outdoor plans on Saturday, keep an umbrella in the car, just in case you find yourself in a shower or a thunderstorm.

What is the % chance of rain tomorrow?  Higher chances north.  Lower chances south.

7 AM Saturday  to 7 PM Saturday

What radar might look like at 6 AM tomorrow

8 AM Saturday morning

9 AM Saturday

11 AM Saturday

12 PM Saturday

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By Saturday afternoon, the atmosphere may become unstable enough for a few thunderstorms, especially in the eastern half of the area. However, this will depend partly on whether earlier showers develop. There could be just enough wind in the atmosphere for a few storms to become marginally strong, but severe weather does not look likely.

By Monday, a stronger weather pattern will develop across the central United States.

Winds will bring very warm and humid air into the region, with dew points in the upper 60s to lower 70s. This will increase the chances of showers and thunderstorms, possibly continuing into Monday night.

By Tuesday, the atmosphere will become very warm, humid, and unstable, which should lead to more widespread showers and thunderstorms.

While a few stronger storms are possible, the bigger concern may be heavy rainfall, since the air will contain a lot of moisture. Some areas could receive locally heavy rain, though significant flooding is not expected at this time.  Typical for May thunderstorms.

Thunderstorm chances will continue into Wednesday and Thursday.

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Let’s look at the rain probability maps.   What is the % chance of rain?

Double-click maps to enlarge them.

These maps are broken down into 12-hour time periods.

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Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.

.Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 77 degrees.

Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 55 degrees.

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.00″ to 1.20″

Six to Ten Day Outlook.

Blue is below average.  Red is above average.  The no color zone represents equal chances.

Average highs for this time of the year are in the lower 60s.  Average lows for this time of the year are in the lower 40s.

Green is above average precipitation.  Yellow and brown favors below-average precipitation.  Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.

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Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 78 degrees.

Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 61 degrees.

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.00″ to 1.30″
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Eight to Fourteen Day Outlook.

Blue is below average.  Red is above average.  The no color zone represents equal chances.

Green is above average precipitation.  Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation.  Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.

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