Beau Dodson's WeatherTalk Blog

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🌪️ Seven-Day Tornado Outlook ⛈️

May 14th through May 20th

Current risk:  Monitor Updates.

Current confidence level: Medium.

Comments:  Tornadoes are not in the forecast.   I will monitor next week.

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Here is your bus stop forecast 

This morning

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This afternoon

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Tomorrow morning

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Tomorrow afternoon

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Seven-day outlook graphic.

See the video and graphics below for more details specific to your county.  This is a broad-brush overview of the entire region.

See the rainfall probability graphics below.

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What is the primary weather concern today and tonight?

No weather concerns today or tonight.  Enjoy.

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Here are the early morning current conditions.  These are the 4 AM readings.

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Rainfall total maps through next Thursday morning.  Slow-moving thunderstorms can enhance totals.

The bulk of this will fall early next week.

The WPC graphics are bullish on totals.  Many events, over the past few months, have underperformed.  We will see how this one verifies.

A safe forecast would be a widespread 0.70″ to 1.40″.  These graphics are a bit higher than that.

Double-click on images to enlarge them.

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Key Points

• Another pleasant May day is expected today, but warmer, more summer-like heat and humidity will start moving in soon. A few isolated showers or thunderstorms will be possible later.
• Friday into Saturday: There will be modest chances (30–40%) of showers and thunderstorms, mainly across the northern half of the region.  See the rainfall graphics below.  They break it down into 12-hour time periods.
• Early to mid next week, thunderstorm chances will increase (50–70%), especially Tuesday and Wednesday.
  There is about a 50–60% chance that some areas will receive at least 1 inch of rain by Thursday morning.

Discussion

The stretch of very pleasant May weather continues today. Get outside and enjoy it!

High pressure will sit over the region, bringing clear skies, low humidity, and comfortable temperatures. Afternoon highs will reach the mid-70s, and the air will remain unusually dry for this time of year.

Use care if burning brush or fields.

Dew points today (how humid it feels) will remain nice today.

Today.  Dews will be in the 40s and 50s.  Nice.

By Friday, winds will turn southwest, bringing higher dew points (humidity) into the area.

A few showers could develop as warmer air moves in, but atmospheric moisture still looks limited, so rainfall will be spotty. Again, see the graphics below.

A weak disturbance in the atmosphere will move through over the weekend. Because the system is weak and moisture remains somewhat limited, rain will likely be scattered rather than widespread. Temperatures will also warm into the 80s.

If you have outdoor plans on Saturday or Sunday, then monitor updates and the weather radars.  Many areas may simply remain dry.  A few spots could pick up a shower or thunderstorm.  Not an all-day rain or anything like that.

Saturday dew points.  In the 60s and 70s. Humid air.

From Monday through the rest of next week, the weather pattern becomes more active.

Winds high in the atmosphere will come from the southwest, bringing several small weather systems through the area.

A cold front may move into the region Monday night, but it may slow down or stall near the region. This would leave our area in warm, humid air, with dew points in the upper 60s to lower 70s and a chance of showers and thunderstorms each day.

Monday dew points.   The purple colors are 70-degree dew points or higher.  Muggy air.

Thursday dew points.

Thursday’s dew points will depend on where the cold front stalls.  If the front moves through the region, then dew points will be a bit lower.

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There will be plenty of dry periods over the next seven days.  It will not rain all the time.  On-and-off chances (see graphics below).

The best chance for stronger storms currently appears to be Monday night into Tuesday, although the greater severe weather risk may stay west northwest of our area. I am monitoring this portion of the forecast.  If it appears severe weather will develop, then I will send out some app alerts, of course.

See the severe weather outlook graphics below.

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Let’s look at the rain probability maps.   What is the % chance of rain?

Double-click maps to enlarge them.

These maps are broken down into 12-hour time periods.

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Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.

.Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 77 degrees.

Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 55 degrees.

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.00″ to 1.20″

Six to Ten Day Outlook.

Blue is below average.  Red is above average.  The no color zone represents equal chances.

Average highs for this time of the year are in the lower 60s.  Average lows for this time of the year are in the lower 40s.

Green is above average precipitation.  Yellow and brown favors below-average precipitation.  Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.

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Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 78 degrees.

Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 61 degrees.

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.00″ to 1.30″
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Eight to Fourteen Day Outlook.

Blue is below average.  Red is above average.  The no color zone represents equal chances.

Green is above average precipitation.  Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation.  Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.

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** NEW SERVICE **  I have partnered with WeatherCall to bring you an added layer of protection.
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More information on the WeatherCall subscription service at the link below or use the QR code.

https://weathercallservices.com/beau-dodson-weather

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We have a new service to complement your www.weathertalk.com subscription.  This does NOT replace www.weathertalk.com It is simply another tool for you to receive severe weather information.

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I use it myself. I encourage everyone to have 3 to 5 ways of receiving their severe weather information. All sources can fail, and the more sources you have, the better prepared you will be in the event of severe weather warnings.

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WeatherCall will call your cell phone or home number if your home is under a tornado or severe thunderstorm warning.  It only calls you ifyour home is inside the warning box/polygon. If you are outside the warning box/polygon it will not disturb you.

Here is a video with more information and a demonstration of how it works.
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More information on the WeatherCall subscription service at the link below or use the QR code.

https://weathercallservices.com/beau-dodson-weather

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You will then receive these via your Beau Dodson Weather app.

Just log into your www.weathertalk.com account
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