Beau Dodson's WeatherTalk Blog

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🌪️ Seven-Day Tornado Outlook ⛈️

May 18th through May 24th

Current risk:  Monitor Updates.

Current confidence level: Medium.

Comments:  There is a risk of a few severe thunderstorms this afternoon into Tuesday night.  At this time, the tornado risk appears to be low.  Perhaps not zero, but low.  Monitor updates.  I will send out alerts on the app if necessary.

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Here is your bus stop forecast 

This morning

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This afternoon

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Tomorrow morning

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Tomorrow afternoon

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Seven-day outlook graphic.

See the video and graphics below for more details specific to your county.  This is a broad-brush overview of the entire region.

See the rainfall probability graphics below.

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What is the primary weather concern today and tonight?

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The western view radars are showing a complex of thunderstorms.

I am monitoring this line of thunderstorms.  Just how far it survives into our region remains a question.

It is outflow-dominant at this time, which means the threat of severe weather with it is currently low.

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Radars and Lightning Data

Interactive-city-view radars. Clickable watches and warnings.
https://wtalk.co/B3XHASFZ

Regional Radar
https://imagery.weathertalk.com/prx/RadarLoop.mp4

** NEW ** Zoom radar with chaser tracking abilities!
ZoomRadar

Lightning Data (zoom in and out of your local area)
https://wtalk.co/WJ3SN5UZ

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Here are the early morning current conditions.  These are the 4 AM readings.

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Dew points are a bit sticky.

Dew points will remain sticky over the next few days.  Dew points are what make it feel muggy outside.  Humid.

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Six-Day Rainfall Totals

Rainfall total maps through next Saturday morning.  Slow-moving thunderstorms can enhance totals.  Keep that in mind.

A safe forecast would be for an additional widespread 0.90″ to 1.80″

These graphics are from the WPC/NOAA.

Double-click on images to enlarge them.

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Forecast Discussion

• Today will be breezy, and thunderstorms may develop this afternoon with about a 50–70% chance.
  A low to moderate risk (Level 1–2 out of 5) for severe storms exists. The main threats would be strong wind gusts and hail.
• Rain and storms become very likely Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night, with an 80–100% chance of rain.
  There is also a Level 2 out of 5 risk for severe weather, but storms may struggle to organize enough to become very strong.
  Locally heavy rain is possible, but widespread flooding is not expected right now.
• Drier weather will move in briefly after a cold front, but showers, thunderstorms, and humidity are expected to return by Thursday into Friday.

Weather Discussion

Today

A small weather disturbance over south-central Texas is expected to move into our area by mid to late afternoon. At the same time, the air over our region is becoming warm and humid, with dew points in the mid-60s to low-70s.

Some computer models suggest that a cluster of storms currently over Missouri and Kansas could move into our area around the same time. Even though the upper-level support is not very strong, it may be enough to keep storms going.

As mentioned above, here were the storms as of 5 AM.

Heating in the afternoon may also help new storms form along the remnants of earlier storms. The atmosphere will have plenty of moisture for storms to develop and/or redevelop.

A boundary is where earlier storms died out and new ones form.  They can make their own fronts.  Then, they become the focus for new development.

Because of this setup, scattered thunderstorms are expected this afternoon. Some storms could produce strong wind gusts and hail. The best chance for stronger storms may be near the Interstate 64 corridor.

It will also be breezy today, and a Lake Wind Advisory has been issued for some areas.   Use caution if you are out fishing or boating.

Here is today’s severe weather outlook.  We are mostly at a low-level one risk.

Yellow is a level two risk (clipping portions of the region).  Dark green is a level one risk.

The scale ranges from one (lowest) to five (highest).

The light green zone is where storms are possible, but they will most likely remain below severe levels.

The Storm Prediction Center could adjust this graphic if confidence in the final forecast increases.

Either way, the forecast won’t change all that much.

For now, just know that a few of the thunderstorms today and tonight could produce strong wind gusts and hail.  Again, the tornado risk appears minimal.

Tuesday

A cold front will move near the region, helping to trigger additional showers and thunderstorms.

The atmosphere will contain a lot of moisture, which means locally heavy rain is possible. However, rainfall amounts may still be somewhat limited because storms may not organize very well.

There will still be plenty of energy for storms, but the winds higher in the atmosphere may be too weak to help storms become well organized. Because of this, severe weather may remain somewhat limited, even though thunderstorms are likely.

Most areas could see around an inch and a half of rain or less, which should not cause major flooding given the dry conditions recently.

Here is Tuesday’s severe weather outlook.  We are at a low-level one and two risk.

Yellow is a level two risk.  Dark green is a level one risk.

The scale ranges from one (lowest) to five (highest).

The light green zone is where storms are possible, but they will most likely remain below severe levels.

The Storm Prediction Center could adjust this graphic if confidence in the final forecast increases.

For now, just know that a few of the thunderstorms today and tonight could produce strong wind gusts and hail.  Again, the tornado risk appears minimal.

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Later This Week

The overall weather pattern later this week and into the weekend looks more active and unsettled.

• Late Wednesday into Thursday: Conditions may briefly become a little drier and less humid. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are still possible, but the chance is lower than today, tonight, and into tomorrow night.
• By Friday: A warm front moves back north, bringing hotter, more humid air back into the region.

On Friday, the combination of humidity, instability, and stronger winds in the atmosphere could allow a few stronger storms to develop.

After that, the forecast becomes more uncertain, as different weather models show different setups. However, the general expectation is for continued humid and unsettled weather with periodic chances for rain and storms.

The good news is that some of this rain could help improve the ongoing drought conditions in parts of the region.

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Let’s look at the rain probability maps.   What is the % chance of rain?

Double-click maps to enlarge them.

These maps are broken down into 12-hour time periods.

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Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.

.Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 77 degrees.

Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 55 degrees.

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.00″ to 1.20″

Six to Ten Day Outlook.

Blue is below average.  Red is above average.  The no color zone represents equal chances.

Average highs for this time of the year are in the lower 60s.  Average lows for this time of the year are in the lower 40s.

Green is above average precipitation.  Yellow and brown favors below-average precipitation.  Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.

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Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 78 degrees.

Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 61 degrees.

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.00″ to 1.30″
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Eight to Fourteen Day Outlook.

Blue is below average.  Red is above average.  The no color zone represents equal chances.

Green is above average precipitation.  Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation.  Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.

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https://weathercallservices.com/beau-dodson-weather

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WeatherCall will call your cell phone or home number if your home is under a tornado or severe thunderstorm warning.  It only calls you ifyour home is inside the warning box/polygon. If you are outside the warning box/polygon it will not disturb you.

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More information on the WeatherCall subscription service at the link below or use the QR code.

https://weathercallservices.com/beau-dodson-weather

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