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This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog.
Remember that weather evolves. Check back frequently for updates, especially during active weather.
Weather Radars
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here
I am starting a blog update just for the flood event. Link.
The live feed is being updating, as well. View the live feed here
UPDATED AT 6 AM on Wednesday morning.
To say the least this is a complex forecast. Partly because there will be large differences in weather from west to east. And, there will be times when southeast Missouri is receiving heavy downpours while parts of the region are dry. Keep that in mind when reading the forecast. I would recommend scrolling down and viewing the 12 hour rainfall graphics. I posted them through Friday. You can at least get some idea of how much rain to expect during any 12 hour period.
New graphics
Updated flash flood watch
Where is the heaviest rain anticipated to fall? The inner green zone.
Latest anticipated forecast numbers. There is a 70% chance of this map verifying.
High end event. What is this event over-performed? What is the maximum amount of rainfall that might fall. There is a 15% chance of this happening.
What if this event under-performed? There is a 15% chance of this happening.
Here are the latest probability charts.
What is the % percent chance of X amount of rain falling. You will notice there are some VERY high numbers. That means to expect some big numbers of a few spots. These are averages for each area. Thus, when you see large numbers that is an indication of a big rain event.
The six inch totals represent six or MORE inches.
Southeast Missouri
Southern Illinois
Western Kentucky
The Pennyrile area of western Kentucky (below)
Northwest Tennessee (below)
Tuesday Night – Showers and thunderstorms developing from west to east. Mild.
Temperatures: Lows in the 56-62 degree range
Winds: South at 10-20 mph and gusty.
What is the chance for precipitation? 60%-70%. Chances will be less over the eastern half of the region. Including southeast Illinois and the Pennyrile area of western Kentucky. Rain would move in there last. Rain will move into southeast Missouri first.
Coverage of precipitation? Widespread
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Rain will be possible. Increasing overnight into Wednesday morning.
Is severe weather expected? Not at this time
What impact is expected? Wet roadways. Lightning possible. Heavy downpours. Gusty winds.
Note this graphic. Between this evening and 6 am Wednesday morning. Notice the difference from west to east. These are rainfall totals.
Wednesday – Showers and thunderstorms likely during the morning hours. Then rain will become a bit more scattered late morning into the afternoon hours. The larger rain shield should move off to the west and north. At least some scattered precipitation will be possible area wide into Wednesday afternoon. If the frontal boundary does not drift east then the best chances for precipitation will be during the morning hours. Locally heavy rain possible. Some question marks on the Pennyrile area of western Kentucky and precipitation coverage.
Temperatures: High temperatures 65-70 degrees. Perhaps coolest over southeast Missouri into southwest Illinois.
Winds: South at 10-20 mph. Gusty.
What is the chance for precipitation? 60%-70% early in the day. Then 40% afternoon hours. Increasing rain chances (coverage should become more solid again) over southeast Missouri and southern Illinois during the late afternoon.
Coverage of precipitation? Widespread early in the day. Then scattered during the afternoon hours. Perhaps most widespread in the afternoon over southeast Missouri and southwest Illinois. Again, a wide range of conditions over the region.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Rain could be an issue. Have a plan B
Is severe weather expected? Not at this time
What impact is expected? Heavy rain. Lightning possible.
Wednesday Night – Showers and thunderstorms likely. Heavy rain possible.
Temperatures: Lows in the 56-62 degree range
Winds: South at 10-20 mph. Gusty.
What is the chance for precipitation? 60%-70%
Coverage of precipitation? Widespread
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Rain likely to be an issue
Is severe weather expected? Not at this time
What impact is expected? Wet roadways. Lightning possible. Flooding possible.
Thursday – Periods of showers and thunderstorms likely. Locally heavy rain possible. Least amount over the Pennyrile area of western Kentucky. Higher totals west vs east in the region.
Temperatures: High temperatures over northern parts of southeast Missouri and southern Illinois from 54-58. Temperatures over the rest of the area might be a bit warmer in the 60-65 degree range. Colder northwest behind the front. Milder southeast ahead of the front. Temperatures may fall during the afternoon over northern parts of southeast Missouri and northern parts of southern Illinois.
Winds: South at 10-20 mph. Winds becoming northwest behind the front. Gusty.
What is the chance for precipitation? 60%-70%
Coverage of precipitation? Widespread
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Medium
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Rain could be an issue. Have a plan B
Is severe weather expected? Not at this time
What impact is expected? Heavy rain. Lightning possible. Flooding possible. Monitor updates.
Thursday Night – Showers and thunderstorms likely. Colder.
Temperatures: Lows in the 52-56 degree range
Winds: Southeast winds at 10-20 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 60%-70%
Coverage of precipitation? Widespread
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Medium
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Rain likely to be an issue
Is severe weather expected? Not at this time
What impact is expected? Wet roadways. Lightning possible. Flooding possible.
Friday – Scattered showers. Perhaps a few thunderstorms.
Temperatures: High temperatures will range from 64 to 68. We might be colder than this if the front sags a bit further south.
Winds: East/southeast winds at 10-20 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 60%-70%
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered to Widespread
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Low/Medium
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Rain could be an issue. Have a plan B
Is severe weather expected? Not at this time
What impact is expected? Wet roadways. Maybe a risk for lightning. Lower confidence on lightning for Friday.
Showers and thunderstorms will be with us into Sunday. Periods of on and off showers/storms.
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An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming days…
- Rain and thunderstorm chances are on the increase
- Locally heavy rain possible from time to time over the coming days.
- Five day rainfall totals in the 1.5″-3″ range. Much higher local totals possible over parts of Missouri and Illinois
- Severe weather risk looks minimal through Friday
- On/off rain chances into Sunday
- Cold snap later this month.
Our long awaited rain event is knocking on our door. An area of showers and thunderstorms has been pushing through Oklahoma and Texas. This area of precipitation is moving east/northeast and will push into our region Tuesday evening. Rain and storms will first approach southeast Missouri late this afternoon and evening. It will then spread east/northeast into Illinois, Kentucky, and Tennessee.
Data indicates the rain shield should be weakening as it moves east. Thus, the heaviest totals are anticipated to fall over southeast Missouri and southwest Illinois. I will show you some graphics below.
Rain and thunderstorms will be possible on Wednesday morning. Then, the main rain band is expected to redevelop a bit further west late Wednesday morning into Wednesday afternoon. That will leave at least scattered showers and thunderstorms over the region. But, perhaps more widespread over parts of southeast Missouri and southern Illinois.
It is possible that parts of the Pennyrile area of western Kentucky remains mostly dry tonight and on Wednesday. We will have to monitor how far east the precipitation holds together.
On and off rain chances will be with us right on into Sunday. It won’t rain all of the time. Periods of showers and thunderstorms. Some heavy rain possible.
No changes on the thinking that Missouri and Illinois will end up with the highest totals (see graphics below). And, the Pennyrile area of western Kentucky will receive the least amount of rain. Again, see graphics below.
Let me show you how much rain is anticipated for each 12 hour period over the coming days. This is guidance and not gospel. Meaning, this is what the computer guidance is anticipating. And, I am posting the charts from the guidance that I believe has the best chance for verification. There are many different model packages to choose from. Each will vary a bit on the final outcome.
Rainfall projections from 6 pm Tuesday through 6 am on Wednesday.
Rainfall forecast from 6 am on Wednesday through 6 pm on Wednesday. Notice the placement of the heavier totals vs the lighter totals. Heavier west vs east.
Rainfall projections from 6 pm on Wednesday through 6 am on Thursday.
Rainfall projections from 6 am on Thursday through 6 pm on Thursday.
Rainfall projections from 6 pm on Thursday through 6 am on Friday.
Bottom line: I think my forecast numbers look solid. We will see how this goes. Remember, these totals on my maps are through Sunday. The maps above are through Friday morning.
Also, there remains some question on the Thursday night through Sunday time frame. Additional rain is likely to fall during that time period. But, questionable on totals. Let’s keep an eye on it.
The heaviest rainfall totals are expected over southeast Missouri and southern Illinois. See the rainfall totals graphics further down in the blog update. I am anticipating a widespread 1.5″-3″ rain event for the region. And, pockets of 3″-6″ are possible. This will cause some flooding concerns. This will be over several days, keep that in mind. If training occurs then the flood risk increases. Training is when heavier precipitation cells move over the same area repeatedly.
Here is my forecast thoughts on totals. I will include the over/under numbers and probability charts. I will update these each day.
Anticipated totals. This is what I expect to fall from Tuesday into the weekend. Several days of on/off rain. Won’t rain all the time. Periods of rain.
Here are the over/under numbers.
If the event were to exceed expectations. How much rain could fall between Tuesday and Sunday.
Here are the high end numbers.
Here are the low end numbers. Low end meaning if the system were to produce less than anticipated. The anticipated numbers represents my forecast. But, weather is always about probabilities. The anticipated numbers represent what should fall.
Here are the low end event forecast numbers
This is where my confidence is lowest as to the eventual outcome of this event. Meaning, whether the forecast totals verify. Of course, you can see the probability charts below and get a decent idea of what I am thinking.
Let’s take a look at my probability charts.
I usually do this for snowstorms. But, I also put these out for heavy rain events. What is the percent probability for X amount of rain falling. I updated the western Kentucky and Pennyrile graphic. Otherwise, no adjustments were made.
This first chart is for southeast Missouri
This next graphic is for southern Illinois
This next chart is for western Kentucky
This next chart is for the Pennyrile area of western Kentucky
This last chart is for northwest Tennessee
I believe the heaviest totals will stretch from Arkansas into Missouri and Illinois. Here is where the greatest risk for the large totals will be centered. The darker green is the highest risk zone.
Area rivers will likely rise over the coming weeks. There will be quite a bit of runoff water pouring into the basins.
Flash flood and/or flood watches have been issued.
What is the difference between a flash flood and a flood?
A flash flood normally occurs with heavy downpours that occur quickly. Think about summer thunderstorms that drop several inches of rain in an hour or two. This causes rapid rises on streams and creeks. Flash floods cause drainage systems to overload. Street flooding occurs during flash floods.
A flood watch is normally issued when an extended period of rain is expected. An extended period of rain could mean 24 hours or more. An event that could last more than one day. Water rises might be sharp, but they generally occur over a period of time vs rapidly.
Either way, some flooding is possible in our region.
There remain questions on how much thunderstorm activity will occur. If we end up with a lot of thunderstorms then the risk for flash flooding will increase. Monitor updates.
If you have experienced flooding problems in the past from large rain events then you might have concerns. Especially for general flooding vs flash flooding. And, if thunderstorms do occur then areas that have issues with flash flooding could also be impacted.
Large rises on area rivers may occur over the next 14 days. And, additional precipitation is possible next week. Spring has arrived and so have the spring rains. There is an above average risk for river flooding this year.
Data shows another rain/storm event around March 18th-20th.
A lot of weather to monitor over the coming days. Make sure you sign up for the texting. I will be texting you updates.
A cold snap is possible around the 21st-26th. Have to wait and see if snow and ice will mix in with the cold snap. I am monitoring trends.
Can we expect severe thunderstorms over the next 24 to 48 hours? Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.
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Tuesday night through Thursday – Thunderstorms will be possible. Thunderstorms are expected to remain below severe levels. Lightning and heavy downpours will be the primary concern.
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I updated the Pennyrile rainfall probability chart. Otherwise, no major changes to the ongoing forecast.
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The main concern over the coming days will be rain. Locally heavy rain possible. This is especially true for Missouri and Illinois. Lesser amounts as you travel east in our region The Pennyrile area of western Kentucky should have the least amount of rain.
Monitor updates on possible flash flood and/or flood watches later this week.
How much precipitation should we expect over the next few days?
Here are the anticipated rainfall totals from Tuesday through Sunday. Several days of on/off rain.
Here is the latest NOAA graphic. Notice the very large totals in Arkansas, Texas, and Louisiana. That also extends into parts of southern Missouri.
Here is the official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).
The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA).
The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Note the dates are at the top of the image. These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be. They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.
Here are the current river stage forecasts. You can click your state and then the dot for your location. It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.
Click Here For River Stage Forecasts
Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?
I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s. I have 37 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns. My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology from Mississippi State University and an Associate of Science (AS). I am currently working on my Bachelor’s Degree in Geoscience.
My resume includes:
Member of the American Meteorological Society.
NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador.
Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management. I served from 2005 through 2015.
I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.
Recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross.
In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award.
Recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.
There is a lot of noise on the internet. A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation. Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.
My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.
- Communicate in simple terms
- To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
- Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, and the blog
- Minimize the “hype” that you might see on television or through other weather sources
- Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events
I am a recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross. In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. I was recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.
Many of my graphics are from www.weatherbell.com – a great resource for weather data, model data, and more
You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions.
