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This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog.
Remember that weather evolves. Check back frequently for updates, especially during active weather.
Weather Radars
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here
I am starting a blog update just for the flood event. Link.
The live feed is being updating, as well. View the live feed here
Monday Night – Cloudy. A few showers possible late. Breezy.
Temperatures: Low temperatures well above normal in the 54-58 degree range.
Winds: South at 10-15 mph. Gusts to 25 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 30% mostly over southeast Missouri and southwest Illinois.
Coverage of precipitation? Isolated to Scattered
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? Maybe some wet roadways.
Tuesday – Breezy. Mild. Some showers and some thunderstorms possible over our western counties in southeast Missouri and perhaps southwest Illinois.
Temperatures: High temperatures 68-74 degrees.
Winds: South at 10-20 mph. Gusty at times.
What is the chance for precipitation? 30% before 12 pm. 40% after 12 pm. Mainly over southeast Missouri and southwest Illinois.
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered and mainly over southeast Missouri and perhaps into southwest Illinois/northern parts of southern Illinois.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Medium
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor radars over southeast Missouri for some showers/thunderstorm.
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? Wet roadways. Lightning possible.
Tuesday Night – Showers likely. Perhaps a thunderstorm. Mild.
Temperatures: Lows in the 56-62 degree range
Winds: South at 10-20 mph and gusty.
What is the chance for precipitation? 60%-70%
Coverage of precipitation? Widespread
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Rain will be possible. Increasing overnight into Wednesday morning.
Is severe weather expected? Not at this time
What impact is expected? Wet roadways. Lightning possible.
Wednesday – Showers and thunderstorms likely during the morning hours. Then rain should move off to the west and north. This could leave much of Wednesday dry. If the frontal boundary does not drift east then the best chances for precipitation will be during the morning hours. Locally heavy rain possible. Some question marks on the Pennyrile area of western Kentucky and precipitation coverage.
Temperatures: High temperatures 65-70 degrees. Perhaps coolest over southeast Missouri into southwest Illinois.
Winds: South at 10-20 mph. Gusty.
What is the chance for precipitation? 60%-70% early in the day. Then 40% afternoon hours.
Coverage of precipitation? Widespread early in the day. Then scattered during the afternoon hours.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Rain could be an issue. Have a plan B
Is severe weather expected? Not at this time
What impact is expected? Heavy rain. Lightning possible.
Wednesday Night – Showers and thunderstorms likely. Heavy rain possible.
Temperatures: Lows in the 56-62 degree range
Winds: South at 10-20 mph. Gusty.
What is the chance for precipitation? 50%-60%
Coverage of precipitation? Widespread
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Rain likely to be an issue
Is severe weather expected? Not at this time
What impact is expected? Wet roadways. Lightning possible. Flooding possible.
Thursday – Scattered showers and thunderstorms. Some question on coverage for Thursday now, as well. This will be highly dependent on where the frontal boundary ends up.
Temperatures: High temperatures over northern parts of southeast Missouri and southern Illinois from 54-58. Temperatures over the rest of the area might be a bit warmer in the 60-65 degree range. Colder northwest behind the front. Milder southeast ahead of the front.
Winds: South at 10-20 mph. Winds becoming northwest behind the front. Gusty.
What is the chance for precipitation? 60%-70%
Coverage of precipitation? Widespread
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Medium
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Rain could be an issue. Have a plan B
Is severe weather expected? Not at this time
What impact is expected? Heavy rain. Lightning possible. Flooding possible. Monitor updates.
Showers and thunderstorms are possible Thursday night into Sunday morning. Some question on coverage as we move past Thursday night. At least on/off chances for showers and storms.
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An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming days…
- Warm Tuesday on tap for the region
- Rain chances increase over the coming days
- Locally heavy rain at times
- How much rain are we expecting?
No significant changes in my ongoing forecast. A widespread 1.5-3″ rain event is forecast for the region. And, locally heavier totals are likely to occur, especially over southeast Missouri and parts of southern Illinois.
The rain will occur over a five day period. Starting on Tuesday over parts of southeast Missouri and southern Illinois. Spreading eastward on Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. Then the front will waver back and forth over our area. This will mean periods of showers and thunderstorms. Precipitation may last into at least Sunday.
The heaviest rain is anticipated to fall on Wednesday and Thursday. But, monitor updates beyond Thursday afternoon. The front may stall over our region into the weekend.
I have not changed my rainfall total forecast since Friday. I think it still looks to be on track for verification. Highest amounts over our western counties of southeast Missouri into southwest Illinois. The least amount of rain is currently forecast to fall over the Pennyrile area of western Kentucky. See graphics below.
Here is the rainfall totals map for the time period 6 am on Tuesday through 6 pm on Tuesday. These maps will give you a general idea of each 12 hour period. How much rain is anticipated to fall. Scale is on the right. Images are from weatherbell.com
Here is the rainfall totals map for the time period of 6 pm Tuesday night through 6 am on Wednesday morning.
Now, notice how the heavier rain is west vs east. Parts of the Pennyrile area may not receive much rain early on in this event. They may have to wait longer. I have their totals lower than other locations in the region. See maps further down.
Here is the rainfall forecast from 6 am Wednesday morning through 6 pm on Wednesday evening. Remember, these are totals for a 12 hour period. You have to add them all together to get a final total (I will post that map, as well)
This next image is from 6 pm on Wednesday through 6 am on Thursday
This next image is from 6 am on Thursday through 9 pm on Thursday
This is what the map looks like when you add it all together,
Notice the sharp gradient that I have been talking about for the last few days. Heaviest rains will likely end up over southeast Missouri and southern Illinois. Less of the Pennyrile. At least through Thursday evening. Big questions after that time frame.
This next image is through Saturday morning. And, this is the GFS guidance. Different model. Notice how the GFS has the same idea as the NAM. Heaviest west vs east. Sharp gradient on the GFS.
Bottom line: I think my forecast numbers look solid. We will see how this goes. Remember, these totals on my maps are through Sunday.
Also, there remains some question on the Thursday night through Sunday time frame. Additional rain is likely to fall during that time period. But, questionable on totals. Let’s keep an eye on it.
The heaviest rainfall totals are expected over southeast Missouri and southern Illinois. See the rainfall totals graphics further down in the blog update. I am anticipating a widespread 1.5″-3″ rain event for the region. And, pockets of 3″-6″ are possible. This will cause some flooding concerns. This will be over several days, keep that in mind. If training occurs then the flood risk increases. Training is when heavier precipitation cells move over the same area repeatedly.
Here is my forecast thoughts on totals. I will include the over/under numbers and probability charts. I will update these each day.
Anticipated totals. This is what I expect to fall from Tuesday into the weekend. Several days of on/off rain. Won’t rain all the time. Periods of rain.
Here are the over/under numbers.
If the event were to exceed expectations. How much rain could fall between Tuesday and Sunday.
Here are the high end numbers.
Here are the low end numbers. Low end meaning if the system were to produce less than anticipated. The anticipated numbers represents my forecast. But, weather is always about probabilities. The anticipated numbers represent what should fall.
Here are the low end event forecast numbers
Let’s take a look at my probability charts.
I usually do this for snowstorms. But, I also put these out for heavy rain events. What is the percent probability for X amount of rain falling.
This first chart is for southeast Missouri
This next graphic is for southern Illinois
This next chart is for western Kentucky
This next chart is for the Pennyrile area of western Kentucky
This last chart is for northwest Tennessee
I believe the heaviest totals will stretch from Arkansas into Missouri and Illinois. Here is where the greatest risk for the large totals will be centered. The darker green is the highest risk zone.
Area rivers will likely rise over the coming weeks. There will be quite a bit of runoff water pouring into the basins.
Flash flood and/or flood watches may have to be issued for portions of the region later this week. Best chance of that would be over parts of Missouri and Illinois.
What is the difference between a flash flood and a flood?
A flash flood normally occurs with heavy downpours that occur quickly. Think about summer thunderstorms that drop several inches of rain in an hour or two. This causes rapid rises on streams and creeks. Flash floods cause drainage systems to overload. Street flooding occurs during flash floods.
A flood watch is normally issued when an extended period of rain is expected. An extended period of rain could mean 24 hours or more. An event that could last more than one day. Water rises might be sharp, but they generally occur over a period of time vs rapidly.
Either way, some flooding is possible in our region.
There remain questions on how much thunderstorm activity will occur. If we end up with a lot of thunderstorms then the risk for flash flooding will increase. Monitor updates.
If you have experienced flooding problems in the past from large rain events then you might have concerns. Especially for general flooding vs flash flooding. And, if thunderstorms do occur then areas that have issues with flash flooding could also be impacted.
Large rises on area rivers may occur over the next 14 days. And, additional precipitation is possible next week. Spring has arrived and so have the spring rains. There is an above average risk for river flooding this year.
Data shows another rain/storm event around March 18th-20th.
A lot of weather to monitor over the coming days. Make sure you sign up for the texting. I will be texting you updates.
Can we expect severe thunderstorms over the next 24 to 48 hours? Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.
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Monday night and Tuesday – Lightning will be possible over southeast Missouri.
Tuesday night through Thursday – Thunderstorms will be possible. Thunderstorms are expected to remain below severe levels. Lightning and heavy downpours will be the primary concern.
No significant changes in this update.
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Heavy rain event later this week. Concerned about river rises and flooding. Widespread 1.5-3″ with pockets of much higher totals likely.
Monitor updates on possible flash flood and/or flood watches later this week.
How much precipitation should we expect over the next few days?
Here are the anticipated rainfall totals from Tuesday through Sunday. Several days of on/off rain.
Here is the latest NOAA graphic. Notice they have decreased their numbers considerably from a few days ago.
Here is the official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).
The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA).
The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Note the dates are at the top of the image. These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be. They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.
Here are the current river stage forecasts. You can click your state and then the dot for your location. It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.
Click Here For River Stage Forecasts…
Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?
I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s. I have 37 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns. My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology from Mississippi State University and an Associate of Science (AS). I am currently working on my Bachelor’s Degree in Geoscience.
My resume includes:
Member of the American Meteorological Society.
NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador.
Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management. I served from 2005 through 2015.
I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.
Recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross.
In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award.
Recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.
There is a lot of noise on the internet. A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation. Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.
My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.
- Communicate in simple terms
- To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
- Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, and the blog
- Minimize the “hype” that you might see on television or through other weather sources
- Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events
I am a recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross. In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. I was recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.
Many of my graphics are from www.weatherbell.com – a great resource for weather data, model data, and more
You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions.
