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This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog.
Remember that weather evolves. Check back frequently for updates, especially during active weather.
Weather Radars
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here
I am starting a blog update just for the flood event. Link.
The live feed is being updating, as well. View the live feed here
Wednesday Night – Showers and thunderstorms likely. Heavy rain possible. Flash flood watch. Avoid flooded roadways. Dangerous flash flooding possible tonight.
Temperatures: Lows in the 56-62 degree range
Winds: South at 10-20 mph. Gusty.
What is the chance for precipitation? 70%-80%
Coverage of precipitation? Widespread
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Rain likely to be an issue
Is severe weather expected? Not at this time
What impact is expected? Wet roadways. Lightning possible. Flooding likely. Flooded roadways. Flash flooding. Dangerous situation possible tonight.
Thursday – Periods of showers and thunderstorms likely. Locally heavy rain possible. Flash flooding possible. Avoid flooded roadways.
Winds: South at 10-20 mph. Winds becoming northwest behind the front. Gusty.
What is the chance for precipitation? 70%
Coverage of precipitation? Widespread
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Medium
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Rain could be an issue. Have a plan B
Is severe weather expected? Not at this time
What impact is expected? Heavy rain. Lightning possible. Flooding possible. Monitor updates.
Thursday Night – Showers and thunderstorms likely.
Temperatures: Lows in the 52-56 degree range
Winds: East/northeast winds at 6-12 mph with gusts to 16 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 60%-70%
Coverage of precipitation? Widespread
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Medium
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Rain likely to be an issue
Is severe weather expected? Not at this time
What impact is expected? Wet roadways. Lightning possible. Flooding possible.
Friday – Scattered showers. Perhaps a few thunderstorms.
Temperatures: High temperatures will range from 64 to 68. We might be colder than this if the front sags a bit further south.
Winds: East/northeast winds at 10-20 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 60%-70%
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered to Widespread
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Medium
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Rain could be an issue. Have a plan B
Is severe weather expected? Not at this time
What impact is expected? Wet roadways. Maybe a risk for lightning. Lower confidence on lightning for Friday.
Friday Night – Cloudy. A chance for showers and thunderstorms.
Temperatures: Lows in the 55-60 degree range
Winds: South winds at 6-12 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? 40%-60%
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? I can’t rule out some rain
Is severe weather expected? Not at this time
What impact is expected? Wet roadways. Flooding is a concern. Lightning
Saturday – Cloudy. A chance for showers and thunderstorms.
Temperatures: High temperatures will range from 64-68. Pockets of lower 70s.
Winds: South at 6-12 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 40%-60%
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Medium
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? I can’t rule out some rain
Is severe weather expected? Not at this time
What impact is expected? Wet roadways. Flooding is a concern. Lightning
Saturday Night – Cloudy. A chance for showers and thunderstorms.
Temperatures: Lows in the 58-64 degree range
Winds: South winds 6-12 mph. Gusts to 16 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 40%-60%
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Medium
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? I can’t rule out some rain
Is severe weather expected? Not at this time
What impact is expected? Wet roadways. Flooding is a concern. Lightning
Sunday – Cloudy. A chance for showers and thunderstorms.
Temperatures: High temperatures will range from 65-70
Winds: South winds 6-12 mph. Gusts to 16 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 40%-60%
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Medium
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? I can’t rule out some rain in the region.
Is severe weather expected? Not at this time.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways. Flooding is a concern. Lightning
Showers and thunderstorms will be with us into Sunday. Periods of on and off showers/storms.
Here is the flash flood watch. In effect through at least Thursday.
Additional counties may need to be added
Our School Bus Stop Forecast is sponsored by Heath Health and Wellness. Located next to Crowell Pools in Lone Oak.
Heath Health Foods is a locally owned and operated retail health and wellness store. Since opening in February 2006; the store has continued to grow as a ministry with an expanding inventory which also offers wellness appointments and services along with educational opportunities. Visit their web-site here. And. visit Heath Health Foods on Facebook!
Don’t forget to check out the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory web-site for weather maps, tower cams, scanner feeds, radars, and much more! Click here
An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming days…
- Placement of the heaviest rain axis
- Heavy rain possible into Thursday
- Widespread 1.5-3″ rain totals anticipated
- Pockets of 3-6″+ of rain may occur in some counties
- Flash flooding is a concern
- Cold snap towards March 21-26th
To say the least this is a complex forecast. Partly because there will be large differences in weather from west to east. And, there will be times when southeast Missouri is receiving heavy downpours while parts of the region are dry. Keep that in mind when reading the forecast. I would recommend scrolling down and viewing the 12 hour rainfall graphics. I posted them through Friday. You can at least get some idea of how much rain to expect during any 12 hour period.
New graphics
Updated flash flood watch
Where is the heaviest rain anticipated to fall? The inner green zone.
Latest anticipated forecast numbers. There is a 70% chance of this map verifying.
High end event. What is this event over-performed? What is the maximum amount of rainfall that might fall. There is a 15% chance of this happening.
What if this event under-performed? There is a 15% chance of this happening.
Here are the latest probability charts.
What is the % percent chance of X amount of rain falling. You will notice there are some VERY high numbers. That means to expect some big numbers of a few spots. These are averages for each area. Thus, when you see large numbers that is an indication of a big rain event.
The six inch totals represent six or MORE inches.
Southeast Missouri
Southern Illinois
Western Kentucky
The Pennyrile area of western Kentucky (below)
Northwest Tennessee (below)
Area rivers will likely rise over the coming weeks. There will be quite a bit of runoff water pouring into the basins.
Flash flood and/or flood watches have been issued.
What is the difference between a flash flood and a flood?
A flash flood normally occurs with heavy downpours that occur quickly. Think about summer thunderstorms that drop several inches of rain in an hour or two. This causes rapid rises on streams and creeks. Flash floods cause drainage systems to overload. Street flooding occurs during flash floods.
A flood watch is normally issued when an extended period of rain is expected. An extended period of rain could mean 24 hours or more. An event that could last more than one day. Water rises might be sharp, but they generally occur over a period of time vs rapidly.
Either way, some flooding is possible in our region.
There remain questions on how much thunderstorm activity will occur. If we end up with a lot of thunderstorms then the risk for flash flooding will increase. Monitor updates.
If you have experienced flooding problems in the past from large rain events then you might have concerns. Especially for general flooding vs flash flooding. And, if thunderstorms do occur then areas that have issues with flash flooding could also be impacted.
Large rises on area rivers may occur over the next 14 days.
Data shows another rain/storm event around March 18th-20th.
A lot of weather to monitor over the coming days. Make sure you sign up for the texting. I will be texting you updates. And, the money from the texting covers all of the graphics you see on this page.
A cold snap is possible around the 21st-26th. Have to wait and see if snow and ice will mix in with the cold snap. I am monitoring trends.
Can we expect severe thunderstorms over the next 24 to 48 hours? Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.
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Thunderstorms are possible Wednesday afternoon through Sunday. Lightning is the main concern. Severe weather is not anticipated.
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I updated all of the charts.
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River flooding
Flash flooding
Flooded roadways. Rainfall totals of 1.5″-3″ will be possible over the coming 48 hours. Pockets of 3″-6″ possible. Locally higher.
Flash flood watch in effect for much of the region.
Avoid flooded roadways. You never know what is under the water. Here is an example.
How much precipitation should we expect over the next few days?
Here are the anticipated rainfall totals from Tuesday through Sunday. Several days of on/off rain.
Here is the latest NOAA graphic. Notice the very large totals in Arkansas, Texas, and Louisiana. That also extends into parts of southern Missouri.
Here is the official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).
The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA).
The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Note the dates are at the top of the image. These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be. They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.
Here are the current river stage forecasts. You can click your state and then the dot for your location. It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.
Click Here For River Stage Forecasts
Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?
I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s. I have 37 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns. My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology from Mississippi State University and an Associate of Science (AS). I am currently working on my Bachelor’s Degree in Geoscience.
My resume includes:
Member of the American Meteorological Society.
NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador.
Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management. I served from 2005 through 2015.
I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.
Recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross.
In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award.
Recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.
There is a lot of noise on the internet. A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation. Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.
My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.
- Communicate in simple terms
- To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
- Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, and the blog
- Minimize the “hype” that you might see on television or through other weather sources
- Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events
I am a recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross. In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. I was recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.
Many of my graphics are from www.weatherbell.com – a great resource for weather data, model data, and more
You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions.
