Click one of the links below to take you directly to that section
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Seven Day Hazardous Weather Outlook
1. Is lightning in the forecast? YES. Lightning is likely today. Another chance Thursday night into Friday night. I will keep an eye on Saturday.
2. Are severe thunderstorms in the forecast? POSSSIBLE. A few of today’s thunderstorms could produce hail and gusty wind. I will keep an eye on Thursday night into Friday night.
3. Is flash flooding in the forecast? ISOLATED ISSUES. Several rain events are likely this week. The ground in many areas remains drier than normal. Flash flooding or general flooding appears to be isolated in concern. Some common area standing water will be possible (fields and what not). If a few thunderstorms train over the same areas, then brief flooding will be possible.
4. Will non-thunderstorm winds top 40 mph? NOT AT THIS TIME.
5. Will the heat index exceed 100 degrees? NO.
6. Will the wind chill dip below 10 degrees? NO.
7. Is measurable snow and/or sleet in the forecast? NO.
8. Is freezing rain/ice in the forecast? NO.
Freezing rain is rain that falls and instantly freezes on objects such as trees and power lines Freezing fog possible, as well.
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BEAU’S STORM TRACKING RADARS
Interactive-city-view radars. Clickable watches and warnings.
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If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.
Backup radar site in case the above one is not working.
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Regional Radar
https://imagery.weathertalk.com/prx/RadarLoop.mp4
** NEW ** Zoom radar with chaser tracking abilities!
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Fire weather risk level.
Tuesday: 4. Low risk.
Tuesday night: 3. Very low risk.
Wednesday: 4. Low risk.
Fire Weather Discussion
A cold front will slide south through the region today accompanied by a good chance for a wetting rain. A few thunderstorms are possible, which could produce some gusty winds or hail. After dry weather Wednesday and much of Thursday, another good chance for a wetting rain returns Thursday night and continues through Saturday. Many locations could receive 1.5 to 2 inches of rain by the end of the week. Smoke dispersion will be rather poor the next several days due to weaker transport winds. A good drying period is expected Sunday into early next week with Minimum RH values in the 30 to 40 percent range.
A Haines Index of 6 means a high potential for an existing fire to become large or exhibit erratic fire behavior, 5 means medium potential, 4 means low potential, and anything less than 4 means very low potential.
Seven-day forecast for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.
This is a BLEND for the region. Scroll down to see the region by region forecast.
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THE FORECAST IS GOING TO VARY FROM LOCATION TO LOCATION. Scroll down to see your local forecast details.
48-hour forecast Graphics
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Today’s Local Almanacs (for a few select cities). Your location will be comparable.
Note, the low is this morning’s low and not tomorrows.
The forecast temperature shows you today’s expected high and this morning’s low.
The graphic shows you the record high and record low for today. It shows you what year that occurred, as well.
It then shows you what today’s average temperature is.
It shows you the departures (how may degrees above or below average temperatures will be ).
It shows you the average precipitation for today. Average comes from thirty years of rain totals.
It also shows you the record rainfall for the date and what year that occurred.
The sunrise and sunset are also shown.
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Tuesday Forecast: Mostly cloudy. A chance of showers and thunderstorms. A few storms could be intense.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 70%
Southeast Missouri ~ 70%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 70%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 70%
Southern Illinois ~ 70%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 70%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 70%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 70%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 70%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 70%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 64° to 66°
Southeast Missouri ~ 64° to 66°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 68° to 72°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 65° to 68°
Southern Illinois ~ 66° to 70°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 66° to 70°
Far western Kentucky ~ 68° to 72°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 70° to 74°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 68° to 70°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 70° to 74°
Winds will be from this direction: Wind becoming southwest and then west northwest at 7 to 14 mph. Higher gusts possible.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 64° to 68°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Monitor the risk of hail.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B and monitor the Beau Dodson Weather Radars.
UV Index: 2. Low.
Sunrise: 6:20 AM
Sunset: 5:54 PM .
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Tuesday Night Forecast: Mostly cloudy. A chance of showers. A thunderstorm will be possible. Mainly over our eastern counties. Ending west to east.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 10%
Southeast Missouri ~ 20%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 20%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 20%
Southern Illinois ~ 20%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 30%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 40%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 40%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 30%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the precipitation: Mainly before midnight. Ending west to east.
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 40° to 44°
Southeast Missouri ~ 42° to 45°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 48° to 50°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 42° to 44°
Southern Illinois ~ 42° to 44°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 43° to 46°
Far western Kentucky ~ 46° to 48°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 48° to 52°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 43° to 46°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 48° to 52°
Winds will be from this direction: North 10 to 20 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 38° to 48°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor the Beau Dodson Weather Radars.
Moonrise: 3:10 AM
Moonset: 12:17 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent
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Wednesday Forecast: Partly sunny.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Timing of the precipitation:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 54° to 58°
Southeast Missouri ~ 58° to 60°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 62° to 64°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 54° to 58°
Southern Illinois ~ 58° to 62°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 60° to 62°
Far western Kentucky ~ 60° to 64°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 62° to 64°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 62° to 64°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 64° to 66°
Winds will be from this direction: North northeast 10 to 20 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 56° to 62°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Most likely none. At most, an isolated wet roadway.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates.
UV Index: 4. Moderate.
Sunrise: 6:18 AM
Sunset: 5:55 PM .
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Wednesday Night Forecast: Partly cloudy. .
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 36° to 38°
Southeast Missouri ~ 36° to 42°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 43° to 46°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 36° to 38°
Southern Illinois ~ 36° to 38°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 40° to 44°
Far western Kentucky ~ 42° to 44°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 44° to 48°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 36° to 38°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 46° to 48°
Winds will be from this direction: Northeast 7 to 14 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 34° to 44°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 4:04 AM
Moonset: 1:29 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent
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Thursday Forecast: Increasing clouds.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 20%
Southeast Missouri ~ 20%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 20%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 60° to 62°
Southeast Missouri ~ 62° to 64°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 62° to 64°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 58° to 62°
Southern Illinois ~ 60° to 62°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 60° to 62°
Far western Kentucky ~ 62° to 65°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 65° to 70°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 62° to 65°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 65° to 70°
Winds will be from this direction: Southeast at 7 to 14 mph. Higher gusts possible.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 55° to 60°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 2. Low.
Sunrise: 6:17 PM
Sunset: 5:58 PM .
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Thursday Night Forecast: Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers. A thunderstorm will be possible.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 80%
Southeast Missouri ~ 80%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 80%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 80%
Southern Illinois ~ 80%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 80%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 80%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 80%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 80%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 80%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time.
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 50° to 54°
Southeast Missouri ~ 50° to 54°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 50° to 54°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 50° to 54°
Southern Illinois ~ 52° to 54°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 52° to 54°
Far western Kentucky ~ 52° to 54°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 52° to 55°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 50° to 54°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 52° to 55°
Winds will be from this direction: Southeast at 7 to 14 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 46° to 52°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. I will monitor the risk of lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates and radars.
Moonrise: 4:50 AM
Moonset: 2:49 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent
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Friday Forecast: Mostly cloudy. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 80%
Southeast Missouri ~ 80%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 80%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 80%
Southern Illinois ~ 80%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 80%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 80%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 80%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 80%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 80%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time.
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 62° to 65°
Southeast Missouri ~ 62° to 65°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 63° to 66°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 62° to 64°
Southern Illinois ~ 62° to 64°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 62° to 65°
Far western Kentucky ~ 62° to 65°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~63° to 66°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 62° to 65°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 63° to 66°
Winds will be from this direction: South southwest t0 to 25 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 58° to 64°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B. Monitor updates and the Beau Dodson Weather Radars.
UV Index: 2. Low.
Sunrise: 6:16 PM
Sunset: 5:57 PM .
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Friday Night Forecast: Mostly cloudy. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 60%
Southeast Missouri ~ 60%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 70%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 60%
Southern Illinois ~ 60%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 70%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 70%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 70%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 70%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 70%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time.
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 38° to 42°
Southeast Missouri ~ 38° to 40°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 40° to 44°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 38° to 42°
Southern Illinois ~ 38° to 42°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 42° to 44°
Far western Kentucky ~ 42° to 44°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 43° to 46°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 40° to 42°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 44° to 48°
Winds will be from this direction: West northwest 10 to 20 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 34° to 44°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates and the Beau Dodson Weather Radars.
Moonrise: 5:30 AM
Moonset: 4:03 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent
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- Warm again tonight.
- Showers and thunderstorms today. Tapering this afternoon and tonight.
- Wednesday should be dry. Rain chances ramp back up Thursday into Saturday.
Weather advice:
Do you have any suggestions or comments? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
Make sure you have three to five ways of receiving your severe weather information.
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Beau’s Forecast Discussion
Good day,
Well, yesterday sure was warm! Paducah, Kentucky hit 82 degrees! Officially, they had a new record high temperature.
Here were the 12 pm temps (yesterday). It felt almost like late spring or early summer. It was a bit humid, as well with dew points in the sixties.
Check out how many degrees temperatures were above average on Monday.
Today’s Forecast
Thunderstorm activity, as of 4 am Tuesday, has been very limited.
We had some intense storms move through southeast Missouri overnight. But, those dissipated. There was even two severe thunderstorm warnings. There were several reports of hail in southeast Missouri near Poplar Bluff and in Stoddard County. Hail up to the size of golf balls fell.
A cold front is advancing into the region from the west northeast.
You can see that on this weather map.
As the front moves eastward, there will be new showers and thunderstorms form along and ahead of it.
We do believe that numerous showers and thunderstorms will develop today into this evening. Tapering tonight.
Rain totals will vary based on where thunderstorms occur. Thunderstorms will enhance rain totals.
Rain totals will range from 0 to over two inches. Some areas will likely miss out. Keep that in mind.
Here is the current NOAA rainfall outlook for today into tonight.
Double click images to enlarge them.
The rain will taper tonight.
A few of today’s thunderstorms could produce gusty wind and small hail. At most a report or two of quarter size hail. I can’t rule out a severe thunderstorm warning, but widespread severe weather appears unlikely.
The Storm Prediction Center did include the Missouri Bootheel in a level two risk. See those maps below. They could update it and include more counties in our area, but I am not expecting anything major.
Wednesday into Thursday is now shaping up dry.
The Thursday system has slowed by 12 hours.
We now expect showers and thunderstorms to return Thursday night into Saturday. Locally heavy rain will be possible. At this time, I am monitoring the threat of a few storms producing gusty wind and hail. Widespread severe weather appears unlikely, but monitor updates, as always.
Additional rain totals of 0.7 to 1.4″ will be possible Thursday night into Saturday.
The rain will taper west to east Saturday evening and night. That leaves Sunday most likely dry. Sunday night and Monday, as well.
It will be fairly mild between now and Saturday. Not quite as warm as recent days, but still milder than average.
It will turn cooler behind the weekend cold front with cooler air likely by Saturday night and Sunday. Nothing extreme.
I am watching several systems next week into the following two weeks. Severe weather season is here, let’s pay attention to updated forecasts.
I doubt we are finished with frost and freeze conditions. Is it possible we are finished? Yes. Is it likely? No. We should have additional cold shots.
Here is the GFS forecast for next Monday morning’s lows. It is showing 30s with frost possible.
I am watching a system around the 14th/15th.
I am watching another system around March 20th to March 22nd. Plenty of time to monitor these systems. As always, long range forecasts are less accurate.
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This outlook covers southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and far northwest Tennessee.
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Today’s Storm Prediction Center’s (SPC) Severe Weather Outlook
Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.
Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.
One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.
A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter or larger size hail, and/or a tornado.
Explanation of tables. Click here.
Day One Severe Weather Outlook
Day One Severe Weather Outlook. Zoomed in on our region.
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Day One Tornado Probability Outlook
Day One Regional Tornado Outlook. Zoomed in on our region.
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Day One Large Hail Probability Outlook
Day One Regional Hail Outlook. Zoomed in on our region.
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Day One High wind Probability Outlook
Day One Regional Wind Outlook. Zoomed in on our region.
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Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook. Day two outlook.
Day Two Outlook. Zoomed in on our region.
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Day Three Severe Weather Outlook
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The images below are from NOAA’s Weather Prediction Center.
24-hour precipitation outlook..
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48-hour precipitation outlook.
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Again, as a reminder, these are models. They are never 100% accurate. Take the general idea from them.
What should I take from these?
- The general idea and not specifics. Models usually do well with the generalities.
- The time-stamp is located in the upper left corner.
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What am I looking at?
You are looking at computer model data. Meteorologists use many different models to forecast the weather.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
Green represents light rain. Dark green represents moderate rain. Yellow and orange represent heavier rain.
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This animation is the HRRR Model.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=6 AM. 18z=12 PM. 00z=6 PM. 06z=12 AM
Double click images to enlarge them. Blue is snow. Pink is a wintry mix. Green is rain.
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This animation is the NAM 3Z Model.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=6 AM. 18z=12 PM. 00z=6 PM. 06z=12 AM
Double click images to enlarge them.
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This animation is the GFS Model.
Green is rain. Yellow and orange are heavier rain. Pink is a wintry mix. Blue is snow. Dark blue is heavier snow.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=6 AM. 18z=12 PM. 00z=6 PM. 06z=12 AM
Double click images to enlarge them.
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This animation is the EC Model.
Green is rain. Yellow and orange are heavier rain. Pink is a wintry mix. Blue is snow. Dark blue is heavier snow.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=6 AM. 18z=12 PM. 00z=6 PM. 06z=12 AM
Double click images to enlarge them.
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.Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 55 degrees.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 35 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.60″ to 1.20″
Six to Ten Day Outlook.
Blue is below average. Red is above average. The no color zone represents equal chances.
Average highs for this time of the year are in the lower 60s. Average lows for this time of the year are in the lower 40s.
Green is above average precipitation. Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation. Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.
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Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 36 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.60″ to 1.20″
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Eight to Fourteen Day Outlook.
Blue is below average. Red is above average. The no color zone represents equal chances.
Green is above average precipitation. Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation. Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.
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Radars and Lightning Data
Interactive-city-view radars. Clickable watches and warnings.
https://wtalk.co/B3XHASFZ
If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.
Backup radar site in case the above one is not working.
https://weathertalk.com/morani
Regional Radar
https://imagery.weathertalk.com/prx/RadarLoop.mp4
** NEW ** Zoom radar with chaser tracking abilities!
ZoomRadar
Lightning Data (zoom in and out of your local area)
https://wtalk.co/WJ3SN5UZ
Not working? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.
Storm Prediction Center. Click here.
Weather Prediction Center. Click here.
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Live lightning data: Click here.
Real time lightning data (another one) https://map.blitzortung.org/#5.02/37.95/-86.99
Our new Zoom radar with storm chases
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Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.
GOES 16 slider tool. Click here.
College of DuPage satellites. Click here
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Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.
Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.
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