March 31, 2024: Monitoring the risk of severe thunderstorms.

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Seven Day Hazardous Weather Outlook

1. Is lightning in the forecast? YES. Lightning is possible today into Monday morning over primarily our northern counties. Lightning is possible area-wide Monday PM into Tuesday.

2. Are severe thunderstorms in the forecast? YES. Severe thunderstorms are possible Monday afternoon and night. Some risk on Tuesday morning, as well. We will need to monitor the track of the cold front Tuesday. Once the cold front exits your county, then the threat of severe weather is over.

3. Is flash flooding in the forecast? MONITOR. Any slow moving thunderstorms could cause locally heavy rain. If a couple of storms train over the same areas, then the risk of flash flooding will increase.

4. Will non-thunderstorm winds top 40 mph? NOT AT THIS TIME. Gusty winds are possible today into Tuesday. For now, I kept them below 40 mph.

5. Will the heat index exceed 100 degrees? NO.

6. Will the wind chill dip below 10 degrees? NO.

7. Is measurable snow and/or sleet in the forecast? NO.

8. Is freezing rain/ice in the forecast? NO.
Freezing rain is rain that falls and instantly freezes on objects such as trees and power lines Freezing fog possible, as well.

Fire weather risk level.

Sunday through Sunday night: 3. Very low risk.
Monday: 4. Low risk.
Monday night: 4. Low risk.

Fire Weather Discussion

Moisture will continue to increase this weekend with southerly flow as min RH values today will fall to around 45-50%. Dispersion will be good with mixing heights around 3,000-4,500 ft AGL. Wetting rains are expected to move in to the area Monday evening and overnight into Tuesday.

A Haines Index of 6 means a high potential for an existing fire to become large or exhibit erratic fire behavior, 5 means medium potential, 4 means low potential, and anything less than 4 means very low potential.

THE FORECAST IS GOING TO VARY FROM LOCATION TO LOCATION.

Scroll down to see your local forecast details.

Seven-day forecast for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.

This is a BLEND for the region. Scroll down to see the region by region forecast.

48-hour forecast Graphics

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Today’s Local Almanacs (for a few select cities). Your location will be comparable.

Note, the low is this morning’s low and not tomorrows.

The forecast temperature shows you today’s expected high and this morning’s low.

The graphic shows you the record high and record low for today. It shows you what year that occurred, as well.

It then shows you what today’s average temperature is.

It shows you the departures (how may degrees above or below average temperatures will be ).

It shows you the average precipitation for today. Average comes from thirty years of rain totals.

It also shows you the record rainfall for the date and what year that occurred.

The sunrise and sunset are also shown.

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Sunday Forecast: Partly sunny. A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mainly far north northeast portion of the region. Most of the area will remain dry today.
Here are the rain probabilities. You can see that they are focused north vs south.

What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 20%
Southeast Missouri ~ 20%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 10%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 30%
Southern Illinois ~ 20%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 10%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 10%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 10%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 30%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered (mainly north)
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 76° to 80°
Southeast Missouri ~ 76° to 80°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 76° to 80°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 76° to 80°
Southern Illinois ~ 76° to 80°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 76° to 80°
Far western Kentucky ~ 76° to 80°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 76° to 80°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 76° to 80°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 76° to 80°
Winds will be from this direction: South 10 to 30 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 74° to 80°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Some storms could produce wind and hail, but the risk is mostly to our north. The bulk of the region will remain dry today. Our far north northeastern counties have a chance of a few showers and thunderstorms.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check the Beau Dodson Weather Radars
UV Index: 4. Moderate
Sunrise: 6:42 AM
Sunset: 7:17 PM
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Sunday Night Forecast: Partly cloudy. A chance of thunderstorms over mainly our far northern counties. Lower chances south.
Here are the rain probabilities. Once again, the probabilities are higher farther north vs south.

What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 20%
Southeast Missouri ~ 20%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 10%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 30%
Southern Illinois ~ 30%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 20%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 20%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 10%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 30%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 62° to 65°
Southeast Missouri ~ 62° to 65°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 62° to 65°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 62° to 65°
Southern Illinois ~ 62° to 65°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 62° to 65°
Far western Kentucky ~ 63° to 66°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 63° to 66°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 62° to 65°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 63° to 66°
Winds will be from this direction: South southwest 15 to 30 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 60° to 68°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Some storms could produce wind and hail over our northern counties. Overall, the risk is higher to our north.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check the Beau Dodson Weather Radars
Moonrise: 12:59 AM
Moonset: 10:08 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous

Monday Forecast: Mostly cloudy. A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Chances will be higher over the northern half of the region. A few in the morning and then we will watch the afternoon counties. If storms do form during the PM hours, then they could become severe. Monitor updates.

What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 70%
Southeast Missouri ~ 60%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 40%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 70%
Southern Illinois ~ 60%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 60%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 40%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 30%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 40%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 74° to 78°
Southeast Missouri ~ 74° to 78°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 74° to 78°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 74° to 78°
Southern Illinois ~ 74° to 78°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 74° to 78°
Far western Kentucky ~ 74° to 78°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 74° to 78°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 74° to 78°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 74° to 78°
Winds will be from this direction: South 10 to 30 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 72° to 80°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Some storms could produce wind and hail.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check the Beau Dodson Weather Radars
UV Index: 4. Moderate
Sunrise: 6:40 AM
Sunset: 7:18 PM
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Monday Night Forecast: Mostly cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms likely. Some storms could become severe.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 90%
Southeast Missouri ~ 90%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 80%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 90%
Southern Illinois ~ 90%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 80%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 80%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 70%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 90%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 80%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 52° to 55°
Southeast Missouri ~ 52° to 55°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 58° to 62°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 52° to 55°
Southern Illinois ~ 54° to 58°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 54° to 58°
Far western Kentucky ~ 58° to 62°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 60° to 64°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 58° to 62°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 58° to 62°
Winds will be from this direction: South southwest 15 to 35 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 54° to 62°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Some storms could produce damaging wind and hail.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B and monitor updates. Monitor the Beau Dodson Weather Radars.
Moonrise: 2:10 AM
Moonset: 11:04 AM
The phase of the moon: Last Quarter

Tuesday Forecast: Mostly cloudy. A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Chances will taper west to east as the day wears on. Higher chances east/ A few of the thunderstorms could be intense.

What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 40%
Southeast Missouri ~ 40%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 40%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 60%
Southern Illinois ~ 60%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 60%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 60%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 80%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 60%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered west but more numerous eastern counties.
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 62° to 64°
Southeast Missouri ~ 62° to 65°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 64° to 68°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 64° to 66°
Southern Illinois ~ 70° to 72°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 72° to 75°
Far western Kentucky ~ 72° to 75°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 74° to 76°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 72° to 74°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 72° to 75°
Winds will be from this direction: West 10 to 20 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 58° to 70°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Some storms could produce wind and hail.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B early in the day. Peak rain chances will be early, then ending west to east.
UV Index: 4. Moderate
Sunrise: 6:39 AM
Sunset: 7:19 PM
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Tuesday Night Forecast: Mostly cloudy. A chance of showers.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 20%
Southeast Missouri ~ 20%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 20%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 20%
Southern Illinois ~ 20%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 20%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 20%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 30%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 20%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 34° to 38°
Southeast Missouri ~ 34° to 38°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 38° to 42°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 34° to 38°
Southern Illinois ~ 34° to 38°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 34° to 38°
Far western Kentucky ~ 34° to 38°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 38° to 42°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 34° to 38°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 38° to 42°
Winds will be from this direction: West northwest 10 to 20 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 32° to 40°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check the Beau Dodson Weather radars.
Moonrise: 2:56 AM
Moonset: 12:10 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent

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Weather Highlights

1. Warm today and tomorrow. Gusty winds, at times.
2. A few showers and thunderstorms will be possible today into Monday morning over mainly northern portions of southeast Missouri and northern portions of southern Illinois. Areas farther south will likely remain dry.
3. Thunderstorm chances ramp up Monday afternoon into Tuesday morning. Centered in Monday evening and night. Some of these thunderstorms could become severe with tornadoes, damaging wind, and hail.

Weather advice:

Do you have any suggestions or comments? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com

Make sure you have three to five ways of receiving your severe weather information.

Weather Talk is one of those ways.

** NEW SERVICE ** I have partnered with WeatherCall to bring you an added layer of protection.

We also have a new service to compliment your www.weathertalk.com subscription. This does NOT replace www.weathertalk.com It is simply another tool for you to receive severe weather information.

I use it myself. I encourage everyone to have 3 to 5 ways of receiving their severe weather information. All sources can fail and the more sources you have, the better prepared you will be in the event of severe weather warnings.

WeatherCall will call your cell phone or home number if your home is in a tornado or severe thunderstorm warning. It only calls you if your home is inside the warning polygon. If you are outside the polygon it will not disturb you.

More information on the WeatherCall subscription service here.

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Beau’s Forecast Discussion

Easter 2024

A few showers and storms are possible today into Monday morning over mainly our northern counties.

This thread, however, is concerning Monday’s event.

** Severe Weather Event Increasingly Likely **

The concern?

Tornadoes, damaging wind, and golf ball size hail.

When?

We are focused on late Monday afternoon into the wee early morning hours of Tuesday.

Where?

See the graphics. There is a risk area-wide.

Certainties

Thunderstorms will occur. Some will become severe.

Uncertainties

There remain questions on the exact placement of the warm front Monday evening and night. The tornado risk will be a tad higher along the warm front. We will need to continue to fine-tune the forecast.

Additional shifts in the Storm Prediction Center outlook are possible. They have been shifting it the last few days farther and farther into our region.

If the warm front ends up farther north, then the higher risk will shift northward (a tad), as well.

Monitor updates.

Call to action

Make sure you have 3 to 5 ways of receiving severe weather information.

The www.weathertalk.com Beau Dodson Weather app is one of those ways.

We have a new service that CALLS your home phone of cell phone if you house is in a tornado or severe thunderstorm warning. You can subscribe to that here https://weathercallservices.com/beau-dodson-weather

I have partnered with WeatherCall to bring you this service.

A weather radio is a great source of weather information.

Other local television weather apps.

Make sure your WEA is on. Google Android or Apple WEA severe weather alerts. How to turn on my WEA. Google that.

Outdoor sirens can be a source for those outside.

Forecast Discussion.

The risk of severe weather continues to increase Monday afternoon and night. With that said, even today there remain some questions on placement and timing of severe weather.

We are now in a level one, two, and three risk across the region.

I encourage you to not get caught up in the colors. Weather doesn’t always follow our nicely drawn maps and color grids.

A tornado in the level one zone is the same as a tornado in a level three zone. The damage is the same. Thus, let’s not focus on the colors. Focus on the forecast.

The forecast is for severe thunderstorms to develop Monday afternoon into early Tuesday morning. Tornadoes, damaging wind, and large hail will be a concern.

If supercells form, then some of the hail could reach golf ball size or larger.

Supercells tend to be scattered vs a solid line of storms. A solid line of storms would be more likely to produce damaging wind and short-lived tornadoes.

Supercells tend to produce longer tracked tornadoes, higher damaging wind gusts, and larger hail.

Early on, supercells appear possible. Then, a line of storms will form.

The bulk of our regions tornadoes occur in level one, two, and three risk zones. So, again, don’t get too caught up in the colors.

The Harrisburg EF4 tornadoes, several years ago, was in a level two risk. A slight risk.

Graphic one shows you the Storm Prediction Center’s official severe weather outlook. They will update this later this morning/afternoon. Adjustments are still possible.

That is mainly going to be for Monday afternoon, evening, and night.

Peak time-frame for severe weather could be in the 5 PM to 5 AM time-frame. But, we will need to closely monitor it. I can’t rule out storms occurring earlier.

If storms train over the same area, then some brief flooding concerns could develop. Avoid flooded roadways.

There will be quite a bit of wind shear aloft with this event. Wind shear is the turning of wind with height and the increase in wind speed with height.

This is an ingredient for severe thunderstorms.

Dew points will rise into the 60s. That is plenty of moisture for severe thunderstorms to tap into.

CAPE values (instability) will rise into the 500 to 1500 range Monday afternoon and evening.

All of those are ingredients for severe weather.

Graphic two shows you the tornado threat zone. The hatched area is where a few storms could produce strong tornadoes (EF2 or greater).

Graphic three shows you the damaging wind threat zone.

Graphic four shows you the large hail threat zone.

The Paducah, Kentucky, National Weather Service made the fifth graphic.

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This outlook covers southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and far northwest Tennessee.

Today’s Storm Prediction Center’s (SPC) Severe Weather Outlook

Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.

Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.

One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.

A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter or larger size hail, and/or a tornado.

Explanation of tables. Click here.

Day One Severe Weather Outlook

Day One Severe Weather Outlook. Zoomed in on our region.

Day One Tornado Probability Outlook

Day One Regional Tornado Outlook. Zoomed in on our region.

Day One Large Hail Probability Outlook

Day One Regional Hail Outlook. Zoomed in on our region.

Day One High wind Probability Outlook

Day One Regional Wind Outlook. Zoomed in on our region.

Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook. Day two outlook.

Day Two Outlook. Zoomed in on our region.

Day Three Severe Weather Outlook

The images below are from NOAA’s Weather Prediction Center.

24-hour precipitation outlook..
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48-hour precipitation outlook.
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Again, as a reminder, these are models. They are never 100% accurate. Take the general idea from them.

What should I take from these?

The general idea and not specifics. Models usually do well with the generalities.
The time-stamp is located in the upper left corner.

What am I looking at?

You are looking at computer model data. Meteorologists use many different models to forecast the weather.