Beau Dodson's WeatherTalk Blog

March 25, 2018: Sunday update. More rain on the way.

Mar 25, 2018Daily ForecastNo Comment
Update

March 26, 2018
Monday Forecast Details
Forecast:  Cloudy.  Rain increasing southwest to northeast as the day wears on.  Lightning possible.
Temperatures:  MO ~  58 to 64      IL ~ 58 to 64        KY ~ 58 to 64       TN ~ 58 to 64
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 70%      IL ~  70%       KY ~60%          TN ~  60%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to perhaps widespread
Winds:  South and southeast 8 to 16 mph with gusts to 20 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Wet roadways.  Lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected?  Unlikely
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B and monitor updates.
Sunrise 6:48 AM

 

Monday  Night Forecast Details:
Forecast:  Cloudy.  Scattered showers.  Windy.  An isolated thunderstorm possible.  Some of the rain could be moderate to heavy across southeast Missouri and southwest Illinois.
Temperatures:  MO ~  50 to 55        IL ~ 50 to 54         KY ~  48 to 54         TN ~ 50 to 55
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 70% western parts of southeast Missouri and 50% eastern sections      IL ~  40%       KY ~  40% for far western Kentucky and 30% for the Pennyrile area.          TN ~  40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Winds: South and southeast 10 to 20 mph and gusty
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.  Small chance of lightning over southeast Missouri and southwest Illinois.  Moderate to heavy downpours.
My confidence in the forecast verifying:  Medium
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  Have a plan B and monitor updates.
Sunset  7:11 PM

 

March 27, 2018
Tuesday Forecast Details
Forecast:  Cloudy.  Showers and thunderstorms possible.  Windy.  Some of the rain could be moderate to heavy across southeast Missouri and southern Illinois.
Temperatures:  MO ~  63 to 66       IL ~ 63 to 66        KY ~  64 to 68     TN ~ 64 to 68
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 80%      IL ~  70%       KY ~ 60% for far western Kentucky and 40% for the Pennyrile area into northwest Kentucky.          TN ~  40%
Coverage of precipitation: Widespread across southeast Missouri and southern Illinois. Scattered for western Kentucky and Tennessee.
Winds:  South 10 to 20 mph with higher gusts
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Wet roadways.  Lightning.  Moderate to heavy downpours possible.
My confidence in the forecast verifying:  Medium
Is severe weather expected?  Unlikely, but monitor updates.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  Have a plan B and monitor updates.
Sunrise 6:47 AM

 

Tuesday  Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Cloudy.  Rain.  I can’t rule out a thunderstorm.
Temperatures:  MO ~  46 to 54         IL ~ 46 to 54         KY ~ 50 to 55         TN ~ 50 to 55
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 70%      IL ~  70%       KY ~  70%          TN ~  70%
Coverage of precipitation: Widespread
Winds: South winds becoming southwest and west at 10 to 20 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Wet roadways.  Moderate to heavy downpours possible.  Lightning possible (although instability might be lacking).
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  Have a plan B.
Sunset  7:12 PM

 

March 28, 2018
Wednesday Forecast Details
Forecast:  Mostly cloudy.  Rain likely.  Rain may taper from west to east during the day.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 56 to 62      IL ~  56 to 62         KY ~ 56 to 64       TN ~  56 to 62
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 50%      IL ~  60%       KY ~ 70%          TN ~ 70%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to perhaps widespread
Winds:  West and northwest at 6 to 12 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected?  Unlikely
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor updates
Sunrise 6:45 AM

 

Wednesday  Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Cloudy.  Showers and thunderstorms possible.
Temperatures:  MO ~  43 to 46        IL ~ 43 to 46        KY ~  46 to 50       TN ~ 46 to 50
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 30%      IL ~  30%       KY ~  40%          TN ~  40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Winds: Variable 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.  Lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor updates
Sunset  7:13 PM

 

Sunday, March 25, 2018
 
Good Sunday morning, everyone.
 
The forecast today will be a bit easier than yesterdays crazy regional weather.
 
Yesterday temperatures range from 45 degrees to 76 degrees across just a few counties!
 
We went from sunshine to low clouds and drizzle within a few counties distance. We almost had snow in our northeast counties.
 
Meanwhile, we had severe thunderstorms with hail and damaging winds in other portions of the region. It was a fun forecast (sarcasm).
 
Today won’t be quite as difficult. We will have clouds and even some light patchy drizzle this morning over portions of southeast Illinois and eastern counties of western Kentucky.
 
The drizzle will likely end shortly, but the clouds will be difficult to shake.
 
We may see some breaks in the clouds later today.
 
Highs today will once again not feel like spring.
 
O spring, spring, wherefore art thou spring? Deny winters temperature and refuse its snow; or if thou wilt not, be but sworn my love and I’ll no longer be winter. Shall I forecast more, or shall I speak at this? ‘Tis but thy name winter that is my enemy: thou art thyself, though not warm. Come and let thy flowers bloom and prove thyself to all the world that spring has arrived.
 
Sorry, I borrowed some Shakespeare and digressed.
 
Highs today will range from 46 to 54 degrees across the region. Northeast winds at 6 to 12 mph with higher gusts will occasionally make it feel even cooler.
 
Unfortunately, rain chances return as early as tonight, but more likely Monday into Tuesday night.
 
Rain chances will be greatest over southeast Missouri tonight. Lower chances elsewhere. Southeast Missouri chances will range from 20% to 40%. Elsewhere, in the region, the chances will be less than 30%.
 
Rain chances Monday and Monday night will peak over southeast Missouri and southern Illinois at 60% to 70%. 50% to 60% elsewhere.
 
The bulk of the rain chances Monday night and Tuesday might end up again over southeast Missouri and southwest Illinois. Tapering to more scattered chances the further east you drive.
 
Rain totals between now and Wednesday will likely range from one to two inches. Locally higher totals are certainly possible.
 
For the time being, the risk of severe weather appears low. Some good news in the mix.
 
Also, you will be happy to hear, that I do not have snow in the forecast this week. See, it’s the little things in life. 🙂
 
Have a great day
 
Rain totals forecast through Wednesday.
 
 

About Author

Beau Dodson is the meteorologist for the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory and for WeatherTalk LLC. His forecasts cover portions of southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and extreme southeast Missouri. He is also the President of the Shadow Angel Foundation.

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