March 23, 2019: Free update today for everyone. Rain chances ramping up.

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Nice today. Increasing clouds PM.
Rain chances increase late tonight over southeast Missouri and area-wide tomorrow into Monday morning. A few strong storms possible Sunday afternoon and night. Hail is the main concern.
Rain chances increase again next Friday, Saturday, and Sunday.

Today: No
.
Tomorrow: Yes. Monitor radars and forecasts. A couple of storms could produce hail and gusty winds.

Confidence rating explained.

High confidence is 70% to 100%. This means that the forecast is likely to verify.
Medium confidence is 40% through 60%. This means that there could be adjustments in the forecast.
Low confidence is 0% to 30%. This means that dramatic changes in the forecast are likely.

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Today through Monday night.

Is accumulating snow or ice in the forecast? No.
Is lightning in the forecast? Yes. Lightning is possible Sunday night and Monday.
Is severe weather in the forecast? Low-end risk on Sunday afternoon and night. A few storms could produce hail on Sunday afternoon and night. An isolated report of strong winds. The best chance of strong storms will be over southeast Missouri and southwest Illinois. As always, monitor updates.
* The NWS officially defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Is Flash flooding in the forecast? No. General river flooding will continue.

Tuesday through Friday

Is accumulating snow or ice in the forecast? No.
Is lightning in the forecast? Possible. A few storms are possible on Friday.
Is severe weather in the forecast? At this time, no.
* The NWS officially defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Is flash flooding in the forecast? No. General river flooding will continue.

* The Missouri Bootheel includes Dunklin, New Madrid, and Pemiscot Counties
* Northwest Kentucky includes Daviess, Henderson, McLean Union, and Webster Counties
.

Today’s Facebook weather discussion link
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March 23, 2019
Saturday’s Forecast: Mostly sunny. Increasing clouds as we move through the day. Thicker clouds over southeast Missouri vs eastern areasa. Mild temperatures. A nice day, overall.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High (80% confidence in the forecast))
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 60° to 64° SE MO 58° to 64° South IL 58° to 62° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 58° to 62° West KY 60° to 64° NW TN 62° to 64°
Wind direction and speed: East and southeast wind at 5 to 10 mph with gusts to 15 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 54° to 56°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO Bootheel 0% Southeast MO 0% IL 0% Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 0% Western KY 0% NW TN 0%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean? A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain. It simply means most areas will remain dry.
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 6 High
Sunrise: 6:55 AM

Saturday night Forecast: Chilly. Increasing clouds through the night. A chance of a shower mainly after 3 AM. Best chance will be across southeast Missouri.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High (80% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 40° to 44° SE MO 38° to 44° South IL 38° to 42° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 38° to 42° West KY 38° to 42° NW TN 40° to 44°
Wind direction and speed: Southeast at 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 38° to 44°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO Bootheel 50% Southeast MO 50% Southern IL 20% Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 20% Western KY 30% NW TN 30%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean? A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain. It simply means most areas will remain dry
Coverage of precipitation: A few light showers over southeast Missouri. Smaller chances elsewhere. This would be late at night.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? A few wet roadways late at night.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunset: 7:09 PM
Moonrise: 10:22 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous
Moonset: 8:48 AM

March 24, 2019
Sunday’s Forecast: Cloudy. There may be quite a bit of the time that it will be dry. Scattered showers. Thunderstorms developing during the mid to late afternoon over SE MO spreading E SE. A few storms could be strong. Rain totals Sunday to Monday in the 0.30″ to 0.60″ range. Locally higher if thunderstorms occur.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High (80% confidence in the forecast))
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 60° to 64° SE MO 58° to 64° South IL 58° to 62° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 56° to 60° West KY 58° to 62° NW TN 60° to 64°
Wind direction and speed: East and southeast wind at 5 to 10 mph with gusts to 15 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 56° to 60°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO Bootheel 60% Southeast MO 60% IL 60% Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 50% Western KY 60% NW TN 60%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean? A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain. It simply means most areas will remain dry.
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered AM showers. Thunderstorms developing during the mid to late afternoon over SE MO spreading E SE
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning possible. A few reports of hail possible.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B. Monitor radars.
UV Index: 2 Low
Sunrise: 6:53 AM

Sunday night Forecast: Cloudy. Rain likely. A chance of thunderstorms. Some storms could be strong during the evening hours. Steady or rising temperatures. Gusty winds.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High (80% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 48° to 52° SE MO 48° to 52° South IL 48° to 52° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 48° to 52° West KY 38° to 42° NW TN 48° to 52°
Wind direction and speed: South 8 to 16 mph and gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 45° to 50°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO Bootheel 70% Southeast MO 70% Southern IL 70% Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 70% Western KY 70% NW TN 70%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean? A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain. It simply means most areas will remain dry
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning possible. A few reports of hail and wind are possible.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B.
Sunset: 7:10 PM
Moonrise: 11:28 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous
Moonset: 9:24 AM

March 25, 2019
Monday’s Forecast: Cloudy. Morning showers coming to an end west to east as the day wears on.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium (50% confidence in the forecast))
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 52° to 54° SE MO 50° to 55° South IL 50° to 55° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 52° to 56° West KY 52° to 56° NW TN 53° to 56°
Wind direction and speed: North and northwest at 10 to 20 mph and gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 45° to 50°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO Bootheel 30% Southeast MO 30% IL 40% Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 50% Western KY 50% NW TN 40%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean? A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain. It simply means most areas will remain dry.
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered early. Ending west to east.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor morning radars.
UV Index: 2 to 3 Low to moderate
Sunrise: 6:52 AM

Monday night Forecast: Some clouds. Chilly. A freeze is possible. A small chance of a sprinkle early in the night.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High (70% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 34° to 36° SE MO 30° to 34° South IL 28° to 34° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 30° to 34° West KY 30° to 34° NW TN 33° to 36°
Wind direction and speed: North 8 to 16 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 25° to 35°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO Bootheel 0% Southeast MO 0% Southern IL 10% Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 10% Western KY 10% NW TN 10%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean? A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain. It simply means most areas will remain dry
Coverage of precipitation: Most likely none
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? A light freeze is possible.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunset: 7:11 PM
Moonrise: 11:59 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous
Moonset: 10:03 AM

Tuesday: A mix of sun and clouds. Colder. A chance of a light freeze Tuesday night. Highs in the upper 40’s to lower 50’s. Lows in the lower to middle 30’s. North winds at 7 to 14 mph and gusty.

Wednesday: Mostly sunny. Highs in the upper 50’s to lower 60’s. A few clouds Wednesday night with lows in the middle 40’s. Wind gusts to 15 mph

Thursday: Mostly sunny. Highs in the middle to upper 60’s. Gusty winds. A slight chance of showers Thursday night. Thursday night lows in the lower to middle 50’s. Wind gusts above 20 mph likely.

Learn more about the UV index readings. Click here.

Graphic-cast

These graphic-forecasts may vary a bit from my forecast above.

Missouri

Illinois

Kentucky

Tennessee

Wind forecast
Today: E SE 5 to 10 mph with afternoon gusts to 14
Tonight: E SE 6 to 12 mph
Sunday: S 10 to 20 with gusts to 25+
Sunday night: SW becoming W NW at 8 to 16 mph. Gusty.

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The National Weather Service defines a severe thunderstorm as one that produces quarter size hail or larger, 58 mph winds or greater, and/or a tornado.

Today and tomorrow: Thunderstorms are possible Sunday afternoon into Sunday night/Monday morning. A few storms could be strong with gusty winds and perhaps a few reports of hail. The greatest concern will be over southeast Missouri and southwest Illinois. Elsewhere, monitor updates.

Monday through Thursday: Severe weather is not anticipated.

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Log into your www.weathertalk.com Click the personal notification settings tab. Turn on WeatherOne. Green is on. Red is off.

Here is the latest graphic from the WPC/NOAA.

This map shows you liquid and does not assume precipitation type. In other words, melted precipitation totals.

48-hour precipitation outlook.

Here is the seven-day precipitation forecast. This includes day one through seven.

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Nice today with increasing clouds.
Rain chances ramp up on late Saturday night, Sunday, Sunday night, and Monday. Possibly a thunderstorm or two. Not anticipating severe weather.
Another system should bring showers and possibly a few thunderstorms next Friday/Saturday. Plenty of time to monitor that event.

Current conditions.

Have there been any changes in the forecast over the last 24 hours?

I added hail to the Sunday afternoon/evening forecast. A few reports are possible.

Does the forecast require action?

Yes. Monitor Sunday afternoon and evening for a few strong thunderstorms.

Yes. Avoid flooded roadways. Many rivers are flooding.

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Forecast discussion.

No discussion today.

The forecast is for rain showers to ramp up tonight into Sunday night. A few intense storms possible late Sunday afternoon and evening.

Freeze conditions?

I have been monitoring Monday and Tuesday night for freeze conditions.

For now, it appears that 30’s are possible both night. The coldest night will likely be Tuesday night. The guidance has backed off widespread 20’s. With that said, if you have concerns about freeze conditions then I would suggest monitoring updates.

Dry conditions Tuesday into Wednesday.

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Model Future-cast Radars. What the models believe the radar may look like.

This is the NAM model guidance.

It does not go out as far as the GFS model (second animation below).

You can see the NAM brings some showers into the region late Saturday night and especially on Sunday.

It won’t be exact, but you get the general idea that rain showers will be increasing as we move deeper into the weekend.

Timestamp upper left

Here is the GFS model guidance. It goes out further in time.

Time-stamp upper left.

Precipitation dates to monitor.

These maps update several times a day. Occasionally, in between updates, you may see a duplicate day or one out of sync.

Forty-eight-hour temperature outlook.

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WeatherBrains Episode 687

Our Guest WeatherBrains tonight are geographers who study the intersections of physical science and social science as it relates to tornadoes and all meteorological hazards. Dr. Stephen Strader and Dr. Walker Ashley, welcome to the show!

Tonight’s first Guest Panelist is from the Carolina Weather Group Podcast. He spent 15 years as a professional firefighter. In 2017, he decided to start pursuing weather and started a blog. He joined Carolina Weather Group in 2018. Chris Jackson, welcome!

Also joining us as Guest Panelist is a Mississippi State University meteorology student who is also in charge of this year’s Southeast Severe Storms Symposium. Alex Forbes, welcome to WeatherBrains!

Other discussions in this weekly podcast include topics like: