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This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog.
Remember that weather evolves. Check back frequently for updates, especially during active weather.
Weather Radars
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here
Saturday Night – Partly cloudy. A chance for a shower or rain/snow shower. No accumulation.
Temperatures: Lows in the 34-38 degree range.
Winds: West and northwest winds at 4-8 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 20%
Coverage of precipitation? Isolated
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? Small chance for snow shower mixed in with the rain. No accumulation. Novelty.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? Wet roadways possible.
Sunday – Scattered rain or rain/snow showers. Thunder possible. Small hail possible if thunderstorms do develop.
Temperatures: High temperatures will range from 44-48 degrees.
Winds: Northwest winds at 8-16 mph with gusts to 20 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 30%-40%
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? Nothing of significance
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but not the best day outside.
Is severe weather expected? No, but small hail is possible.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways. Small hail possible. Lightning possible.
Sunday Night – Clearing and cold. Frost possible if winds die down. Freeze possible. Freeze watch has been issued for portions of the region. Freeze conditions could occur in all of my forecast counties.
Temperatures: Lows in the 28-35 degree range.
Winds: West and northwest winds at 3-6 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? Frost possible.
Monday – Mostly sunny. Cool.
Temperatures: High temperatures will range from 52-56 degrees.
Winds: West winds at 10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No.
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? None
Monday Night – Mostly clear. Cool.
Temperatures: Lows in the upper 30s to lower 40s.
Winds: West/southwest winds at 6-12 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? None
Tuesday – Mostly sunny. Warmer. Breezy.
Temperatures: High temperatures will range from 52-56 degrees.
Winds: Southwest winds at 10-20 mph with gusts to 30 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No.
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? None
Tuesday Night – Partly cloudy. Not as cool.
Temperatures: Lows in the 53-56 degree range
Winds: Southwest winds at 10-20 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? None
Wednesday – Quite a few clouds. Mild.
Temperatures: High temperatures will range from 64 to 68 degrees.
Winds: South/southwest winds at 10-20 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 10%
Coverage of precipitation? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Medium
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No.
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? None
Windy on Tuesday. Partly cloudy on Tuesday. Winds of 20-30 mph possible. Gusty.
Watching Wednesday-Friday of next week for some more showers and storms.
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Don’t forget to check out the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory web-site for weather maps, tower cams, scanner feeds, radars, and much more! Click here
An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming days…
- A few light showers or rain/snow showers Saturday night/Sunday
- Colder Sunday night with frost/freeze possible
- Warmer as the week wears on
- Showers and storms late week
Yet another weak disturbance will push into our region on Saturday night and Sunday. This will deliver some additional showers during the overnight hours into Sunday. It may be cold enough for snow showers or a rain/snow mix. No accumulation anticipated. Spotty and scattered in nature.
There may be just enough instability on Sunday for some thunderstorms to develop. Small hail could occur because the freezing level will be very low in the atmosphere.
It will certainly feel like winter over the next 24 hours. Highs on Sunday will likely remain in the 40s. Lows on Sunday night will dip into the upper 20s to middle 30s. If the wind dies down then frost will be possible on Sunday night. Whether winds die down or not is still a bit of a question. Parts of the region may dip below freezing on Sunday night. There will be a window of opportunity for at least a couple of hours of below freezing temperatures. A freeze watch has been issued for parts of the region.
Temperatures will start to warm on Monday. The warming trend will last into the week. Expect 60s by Tuesday. The sixties will last through Friday.
A larger storm system is forecast to push into our region from the southwest on Wednesday night/Thursday and Friday. An area of low pressure is forecast to move out of Oklahoma into Missouri on Thursday/Friday. This will spread showers and thunderstorms into our region. If the low tracks to our west then heavy storms will be possible. Locally heavy rain, as well. Still a bit early to know whether or not severe weather will be a concern. Monitor updates.
There remains some differences in the data as to when the best chances of rain/storms will arrive. Perhaps this system will be centered on Thursday.
Here are the current river stage forecasts. You can click your state and then the dot for your location. It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.
Can we expect severe thunderstorms over the next 24 to 48 hours? Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.
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A risk for a couple of thunderstorms on Sunday. Small hail possible and lightning. I am watching next Wednesday night/Thursday and Friday for a chance of thunderstorms. Perhaps centered on Thursday.
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No major changes in this forecast update. Updated frost and freeze wording.
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Frost is possible Sunday night. Freeze possible.
Frost and freeze conditions could harm sensitive plants on Sunday night.
How much precipitation should we expect over the next few days?
Additional light showers are possible Saturday night and Sunday morning. Totals of a trace to 0.10″ are possible. Light.
I am watching a system for this coming Wednesday night into Friday. Perhaps centered on Thursday/Friday. Showers and thunderstorms will be possible during that time frame. Perhaps some locally heavy rain. The heavier rain will depend on the track of the area of low pressure.
Rainfall for the next 24 hours will be light. Here are the numbers. A trace to perhaps 0.10″-0.20″.
Another rain maker towards Wednesday night/Thursday/Thursday night could produce heavier rain. There numbers will likely change between now and then. They have already been adjusted since yesterdays map.
Here is the official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).
The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA).
The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Note the dates are at the top of the image. These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be. They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.
Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?
I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s. I have 37 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns. My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology from Mississippi State University and an Associate of Science (AS). I am currently working on my Bachelor’s Degree in Geoscience.
My resume includes:
Member of the American Meteorological Society.
NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador.
Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management. I served from 2005 through 2015.
I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.
Recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross.
In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award.
Recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.
There is a lot of noise on the internet. A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation. Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.
My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.
- Communicate in simple terms
- To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
- Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, and the blog
- Minimize the “hype” that you might see on television or through other weather sources
- Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events
I am a recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross. In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. I was recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.
Many of my graphics are from www.weatherbell.com – a great resource for weather data, model data, and more
You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions.
