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This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog.
Remember that weather evolves. Check back frequently for updates, especially during active weather.
Weather Radars
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here
Friday Night – Becoming cloudy. A good chance for showers. Small chance for a snowflake.
Temperatures: Lows in the 36 to 44 degree range.
Winds: North/northeast winds at 8-16 mph. Gusts to 15 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 60%-70%
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered to numerous
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but some showers possible
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? Wet roadways.
Saturday – Quite a few clouds. Cool. A 40% chance for a morning shower. Perhaps a rain/snow mix. Precipitation ending from west to east.
Temperatures: High temperatures will range from 48-54 degrees.
Winds: North and northeast winds at 5-10 mph with gusts to 15 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 40% mainly morning. Then a 20% chance for a shower during the afternoon.
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered during the morning and isolated in the afternoon
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No.
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? Maybe some wet roadways.
Saturday Night – Partly cloudy. A chance for a shower or rain/snow shower. No accumulation.
Temperatures: Lows in the 34-38 degree range.
Winds: West and northwest winds at 4-8 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 30%-40%
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? Small chance for snow shower mixed in with the rain. No accumulation. Novelty.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? Wet roadways possible.
Sunday – A morning rain rain/snow shower possible. Then a slight chance for a shower in the afternoon.
Temperatures: High temperatures will range from 48-52 degrees.
Winds: Northwest winds at 8-16 mph with gusts to 20 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 20%
Coverage of precipitation? None to isolated
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No.
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? None
Sunday Night – Clearing and cold. Frost possible if winds die down.
Temperatures: Lows in the 28-35 degree range.
Winds: West and northwest winds at 3-6 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? Frost possible.
Monday – Mostly sunny. Cool.
Temperatures: High temperatures will range from 52-56 degrees.
Winds: West winds at 10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No.
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? None
Windy on Tuesday. Partly cloudy on Tuesday. Winds of 20-30 mph possible. Gusty.
Watching Wednesday-Friday of next week for some more showers and storms.
Lake Forecast for Saturday and Sunday
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An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming days…
- A few showers over the coming days
- Frost on Sunday night? Yay or nay?
- Stormy late next week?
The weather story over the next few days will be a cold shot of air moving into the area. We have slowly stair stepped down into the cooler air over the last few days. Each day has been a little bit cooler than the last. Even with that stair stepping we have remained above normal in the temperature department. This is about to change.
Cooler air arrives on Friday night and will last into Monday.
Expect morning lows in the upper 30s and lower 40s on Saturday. In the 30s on Sunday morning. And we will dip into the upper 20s to middle 30s on Monday morning.
A weak weather disturbance moving in from the west/northwest will produce light rain Friday evening into Saturday. The bulk of this light rain will occur tonight and early Saturday morning. A few remaining spotty showers are possible on Saturday late morning into the afternoon. Especially true for eastern counties.
Another weather system approaches from the northwest on Saturday night and Sunday morning. This system won’t be as strong as the Friday night one. But, some light showers or rain/snow showers will be possible in the area. This would mainly be on Saturday night and early Sunday morning.
The system pulls away during the day on Sunday. A few remaining rain or rain/snow showers will be possible Sunday late morning into the afternoon.
We should see some clearing Sunday afternoon and evening. This will set the stage for colder temperatures on Sunday night and Monday morning. Upper 20s to middle 30s across the area. The colder air will be over our northern and northeastern counties.
Frost will be possible if winds die down. This is a bit of a question mark. If winds don’t die down then frost chances decrease. At this time, there are no advisories issued for frost. But, monitor updates.
Let’s take a look at a few maps.
These are future-cast radar maps from weatherbell.com These maps show you what radar might look like later tonight into Saturday morning.
Green represents rain showers. Blue represents snow showers or rain/snow mix.
This first map is for Friday night at 7 pm. You can see some showers spreading eastward.
This next map is for 1 am on Saturday morning.
This next map is for 1 pm on Saturday afternoon. You can see the showers have diminished.
This next image is for Saturday night at 10 pm. Some more showers pushing into the region. Could be a rain/snow mix. No accumulation.
This next image is for 7 am on Sunday morning. Still some precipitation in the area. Light.
Let’s look at that next system that I mentioned. This one has the potential to be stronger. This is the GFS map for next Thursday/Friday. It shows a deep area of low pressure passing over our region. We need to monitor this system for some thunderstorms. Heavy snow to the north (if the GFS is correct).
The EC has this same system. EC is another model. It takes the low much further north. Thus, killing snow chances to our north. It brings showers and storms into our region Thursday and Friday, as well.
Here are the current river stage forecasts. You can click your state and then the dot for your location. It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.
Can we expect severe thunderstorms over the next 24 to 48 hours? Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.
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Thunderstorms are not expected through the weekend. I am watching next Thursday and Friday for a chance of thunderstorms.
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No major changes in this forecast update.
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Frost is possible Sunday night. Small risk for a freeze.
No
How much precipitation should we expect over the next few days?
A few light showers Friday night into Saturday. Two disturbances moving into the area this weekend. Both could produce a few light showers. Temperatures will be cold enough on Saturday night to have a rain/snow mix over our northern and northeastern counties. No accumulation. Light showers are possible on Sunday, as well.
Rainfall totals over the coming three days will be light. Less than 0.25″ is the current forecast.
WPC has placed an area of 0.30″-0.45″ over parts of the area. This is mostly a light rain event.
I wanted to show you the long range precipitation outlook. This includes a system next Thursday and Friday. We will need to monitor for a heavy rain potential moving into the Mississippi and Ohio Valleys. This would likely be centered on Thursday and Friday. Not sure about Wednesday, yet. An area of low pressure moves out of the southwest into our area. Strong storms would also be possible if the low tracks to our west.
Here is the official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).
The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA).
The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Note the dates are at the top of the image. These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be. They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.
Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?
I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s. I have 37 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns. My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology from Mississippi State University and an Associate of Science (AS). I am currently working on my Bachelor’s Degree in Geoscience.
My resume includes:
Member of the American Meteorological Society.
NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador.
Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management. I served from 2005 through 2015.
I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.
Recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross.
In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award.
Recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.
There is a lot of noise on the internet. A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation. Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.
My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.
- Communicate in simple terms
- To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
- Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, and the blog
- Minimize the “hype” that you might see on television or through other weather sources
- Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events
I am a recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross. In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. I was recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.
Many of my graphics are from www.weatherbell.com – a great resource for weather data, model data, and more
You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions.
