Beau Dodson's WeatherTalk Blog

March 13th and 14th: Below normal temperatures to continue.

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This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog

 

 

March 13, 2017

Monday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast
:  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Precipitation ending.  Cold.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Freeze likely.
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
?  MO ~ 20%  IL ~ 30%    KY ~ 30%   TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation
:  Ending.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No, but it will be cold.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium.  Some adjustments are possible.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 28 to 32   IL ~ 28 to 32    KY ~ 28 to 32     TN ~ 28 to 32
Winds:  North and northwest at 4 to 8 mph
Wind Chill when applicable:
Will there be a chance for wintry precipitation?  No
Moonrise will be at 8:14 p.m. and moonset will be at 7:50 a.m. Waning Gibbous

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March 14, 2017
Tuesday
Forecast Details
Forecast
:  Mix of sun and clouds.  Some data shows mostly cloudy sky conditions.  Cool temperatures.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Is severe weather expected?  No.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
?  MO ~ 0%  IL ~ 0%   KY ~ 0%   TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation
:  None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High.  This forecast should verify.
Temperatures:   MO ~ 38 to 42   IL ~ 38 to 42    KY ~ 38 to 44    TN ~ 38 to 44
Winds:  North and northwest at 10 to 20 mph
Will there be a chance for wintry precipitation? No.
Sunrise will be at 7:05 a.m. and sunset will be at 7:01 p.m.
UV Index
: 0 to 4
Moonrise 
will be at 9:12 p.m. and moonset will be at 8:22 a.m. Waning Gibbous

Tuesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast
:  A few clouds and cold.  Hard freeze.  Perhaps coldest night of the month, thus far.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Freeze conditions.  Hard freeze.
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
?  MO ~ 0%  IL ~ 0%    KY ~ 0%   TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation
:  None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium.  Some adjustments are possible.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 18 to 24   IL ~ 18 to 24    KY ~ 22 to 25     TN ~ 23 to 25
Winds:  North and northeast at 5 mph
Wind Chill when applicable:
Will there be a chance for wintry precipitation?  No
Moonrise will be at 9:12 p.m. and moonset will be at 8:22 a.m. Waning Gibbous

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March 15, 2017
Wednesday
Forecast Details
Forecast
:  Mostly sunny.  Cold.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Is severe weather expected?  No.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
?  MO ~ 0%  IL ~ 0%   KY ~ 0%   TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation
:  None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High.  This forecast should verify.
Temperatures:   MO ~ 38 to 44   IL ~ 38 to 44    KY ~ 38 to 44    TN ~ 38 to 44
Winds:  North wind at 8 mph
Will there be a chance for wintry precipitation? No.
Sunrise will be at 7:03 a.m. and sunset will be at 7:02 p.m.
UV Index
: 3 to 6
Moonrise 
will be at 10:09 p.m. and moonset will be at 8:54 a.m. Waning Gibbous

Wednesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast
:  Mostly clear with hard freeze possible.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Freeze conditions again likely.
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
?  MO ~ 0%  IL ~ 0%    KY ~ 0%   TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation
:  None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium.  Some adjustments are possible.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 20 to 25   IL ~ 22 to 26    KY ~ 24 to 26     TN ~ 24 to 26
Winds:  North and northeast at 5 mph
Wind Chill when applicable:
Will there be a chance for wintry precipitation?  No
Moonrise will be at 10:09 p.m. and moonset will be at 8:54 a.m. Waning Gibbous

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March 16, 2017
Thursday
Forecast Details
Forecast
:  A mix of sun and clouds.  A slight chance for showers over southeast Missouri.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Is severe weather expected?  No.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
?  MO ~ 20%  IL ~ 20%   KY ~ 10%   TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation
:  None to isolated
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High.  This forecast should verify.
Temperatures:   MO ~ 45 to 50    IL ~ 45 to 50    KY ~45 to 50    TN ~ 45 to 50
Winds:  South and southeast winds at 5 to 10 mph
Will there be a chance for wintry precipitation? No.
Sunrise will be at 7:02 a.m. and sunset will be at 7:03 p.m.
UV Index
: 3 to 6
Moonrise 
will be at 11:04 p.m. and moonset will be at 9:27 a.m. Waning Gibbous

Thursday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast
:  Partly to mostly cloudy.  A 30% chance for showers.  Cool.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  None.
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
?  MO ~ 30%  IL ~ 30%    KY ~ 20%   TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation
:  Scattered
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Low.  Significant adjustments are possible.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 32 to 36     IL ~ 32 to 36    KY ~ 32 to 36     TN ~ 32 to 36
Winds:  South at 5 mph
Wind Chill when applicable:
Will there be a chance for wintry precipitation?  Unlikely
Moonrise will be at 11:04 p.m. and moonset will be at 9:27 a.m. Waning Gibbous

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March 17, 2017
Friday
Forecast Details
Forecast
:  Cloudy with a chance for showers.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways
Is severe weather expected?  No.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
?  MO ~ 50%  IL ~ 50%   KY ~ 50%   TN ~ 50%
Coverage of precipitation
:  Spotty
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High.  This forecast should verify.
Temperatures:   MO ~ 54 to 58    IL ~ 54 to 58    KY ~ 54 to 58    TN ~ 54 to 58
Winds: South winds at 6 to 12 mph
Will there be a chance for wintry precipitation? No.
Sunrise will be at 7:00 a.m. and sunset will be at 7:04 p.m.
UV Index
: 0 to 2
Moonrise 
will be at 11:59 p.m. and moonset will be at 10:02 a.m. Waning Gibbous

Friday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast
:  Cloudy.  Showers possible.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
?  MO ~ 60%  IL ~ 50%    KY ~ 50%   TN ~ 50%
Coverage of precipitation
:  Scattered
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No, but monitor updates.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium.  Some adjustments are possible.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 40 to 44    IL ~ 40 to 44    KY ~ 40 to 44     TN ~ 40 to 44
Winds:  Southwest at 5 to 10 mph
Wind Chill when applicable:
Will there be a chance for wintry precipitation?  No
Moonrise will be at 11:59 p.m. and moonset will be at 10:02 a.m. Waning Gibbous

.

March 18, 2017
Saturday
Forecast Details
Forecast
:  Mostly sunny.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Is severe weather expected?  No.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
?  MO ~ 0%  IL ~ 0%   KY ~ 0%   TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation
:  None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High.  This forecast should verify.
Temperatures:   MO ~ 55 to 60   IL ~ 55 to 60    KY ~ 55 to 60    TN ~ 55 to 60
Winds:
Will there be a chance for wintry precipitation? No.
Sunrise will be at 6:59 a.m. and sunset will be at 7:05 p.m.
UV Index
: 5 to 8
Moonrise 
will be at -:– p.m. and moonset will be at 10:39 a.m. Waning Gibbous

Saturday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast
:  A few clouds.  Small chance for a shower.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
?  MO ~ 20%  IL ~ 20%    KY ~ 20%   TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation
:  None to isolated
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Low.  Significant adjustments are possible.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 40 to 45   IL ~ 40 to 44    KY ~ 42 to 46     TN ~ 42 to 46
Winds:
Wind Chill when applicable:
Will there be a chance for wintry precipitation?  No
Moonrise will be at -:– p.m. and moonset will be at 10:39 a.m. Waning Gibbous

More information on the UV index.  Click here

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Don’t forget to check out the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory web-site for weather maps, tower cams, scanner feeds, radars, and much more!  Click here

beausanalysis

An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming day

Analysis

Monday night into Tuesday:
Confidence:  High

Cold weather will be with us for several more days.  Monday’s snow and rain will end on Monday evening (what has not already ended).  This will leave us with clouds into most of the night.  Chilly temperatures.

Tuesday will be cloudy.  There could be a few breaks in the clouds.  Guidance shows a lot of clouds.  Temperatures will be well below normal with highs mostly in the lower 40’s.

Tuesday night through Wednesday night.
Confidence:  High

Unfortunately, a hard freeze is once again in the forecast for Tuesday and Wednesday night.  Temperatures should dip into the lower twenties.  Some of the guidance indicates upper teens to lower twenties.  Either way, it is going to be cold and a hard freeze will occur.

Dry conditions Tuesday into Wednesday night.

Thursday into Sunday:
Confidence:  Low

The weather takes a turn as we move into the end of the week.  A couple of weak disturbances will deliver clouds and perhaps showers.  There is a small chance for a shower late Thursday afternoon over southeast Missouri.  Perhaps better chances as we move into Thursday night and especially Friday and Friday night.  Precipitation chances will peak during that time frame.

This does not look like a heavy rain event and severe storms are not anticipated.

At this time, Saturday is shaping up to be dry.  Saturday night might have some light showers.  A weak disturbance will be in the region on Saturday night and Sunday.  Perhaps a few showers.  Confidence is rather low on this part of the forecast.

 

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rainfallforecast

How much rain is expected over the coming days?

Here is the official NOAA rainfall prediction

Some rain and frozen precipitation again possible late Sunday night and Monday.  Totals from 0.05″ to 0.25″ possible.

High and Low-Temperature Outlook 

Tuesday low temperature forecast

Tuesday high temperature forecast

whatamiconcered

A hard freeze on Tuesday night.  Temperatures could fall into the lower to middle 20’s.

A hard freeze is again possible on Wednesday night with temperatures in the lower to middle 20’s.

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Severe thunderstorm outlook.

Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.

Monday night into Saturday:  Severe thunderstorms are not anticipated.

12345r

We have regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not update then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared. You may also try restarting your browser. That usually fixes the problem. Occasionally we do have a radar go down. That is why I have duplicates. Thus, if one fails then try another one.

During the winter you can track snow and ice by clicking the winterize button on the local city view interactive radars.

If you have any problems then please send me an email beaudodson@usawx.com

Interactive Weather Radar Page.  Choose the city nearest your location:  Click this link

National interactive radar:  Click this link.

Local interactive city radars include St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, Dyersburg, and all of eastern Kentucky.  These are interactive radars.  Local city radars – click here

Regional Radar
http://www.weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm

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Here are the current river stage forecasts.   You can click your state and then the dot for your location.  It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.

Click Here For River Stage Forecasts

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The official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook.  Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).

The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA)

The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook.  Note the dates are at the top of the image.  These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be.  They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.

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Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?

I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s.  I have 39 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns.  My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology and a Bachelor’s of Science.

My resume includes:

Member of the American Meteorological Society.

NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador. 

Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management.  I served from 2005 through 2015.

Meteorologist for McCracken County Rescue.  2015 through current

I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.

I am the chief meteorologist for Weather Talk LLC.  I am the owner of Weather Talk LLC.

I am also a business owner in western Kentucky.

Recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross

In 2005 I helped open the largest American Cross shelter in U.S. history in Houston, Texas.  I was deployed to help after Hurricane Katrina and Hurricane Rita.  I was a shelter manager of one of the Houston, Texas shelter divisions.

In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. 

Recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.

If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.

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I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.

There is a lot of noise on the internet.  A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation.  Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.

My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.

  • Communicate in simple terms
  • To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
  • Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, email, texts, and this blog
  • Minimize the “hype” that you might see on some television stations or through other weather sources
  • Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events

Many of the graphics on this page are from www.weatherbell.com

WeatherBell is a great resource for weather model guidance.

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You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions

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