March 13, 2024: Thunderstorm chances. Cooler weekend into early next week. Another freeze?

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Seven Day Hazardous Weather Outlook

1. Is lightning in the forecast? YES. Lightning is possible today into Friday night. Peak chances will be Thursday afternoon/night into early Friday morning.

2. Are severe thunderstorms in the forecast? POSSIBLE. I am closely monitoring Thursday afternoon into Friday. Also, a few storms tonight could produce small hail.

3. Is flash flooding in the forecast? NOT AT THIS TIME.

4. Will non-thunderstorm winds top 40 mph? NO.

5. Will the heat index exceed 100 degrees? NO.

6. Will the wind chill dip below 10 degrees? NO.

7. Is measurable snow and/or sleet in the forecast? NO.

8. Is freezing rain/ice in the forecast? NO.
Freezing rain is rain that falls and instantly freezes on objects such as trees and power lines Freezing fog possible, as well.

Fire weather risk level.

Wednesday through Wednesday night: 4. Low risk.
Thursday: 4. Low risk.
Thursday night: 4. Low risk.

Fire Weather Discussion

South to southwest winds will continue to be breezy today before increasing further on Thursday. Gusts will be as high as 35 mph ahead of the cold front on Thursday. Warming and moistening will steadily increase through Friday morning. A slight chance of showers and possibly a thunderstorms will arrive tonight. The main storm system will arrive Thursday through Friday with widespread showers and thunderstorms, some of the storms could become strong or even severe. As the cold front shifts out of the area by Friday morning, expect gusty northwest winds to develop across the area.

A Haines Index of 6 means a high potential for an existing fire to become large or exhibit erratic fire behavior, 5 means medium potential, 4 means low potential, and anything less than 4 means very low potential.

Seven-day forecast for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.

This is a BLEND for the region. Scroll down to see the region by region forecast.

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THE FORECAST IS GOING TO VARY FROM LOCATION TO LOCATION.

Scroll down to see your local forecast details.

A couple of NWS graphics (Paducah office)

Radars and Lightning Data

Interactive-city-view radars. Clickable watches and warnings.
https://wtalk.co/B3XHASFZ

If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.

Backup radar site in case the above one is not working.
https://weathertalk.com/morani

Regional Radar
https://imagery.weathertalk.com/prx/RadarLoop.mp4

** NEW ** Zoom radar with chaser tracking abilities!
ZoomRadar

Lightning Data (zoom in and out of your local area)
https://wtalk.co/WJ3SN5UZ

Not working? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com

Rain totals through Saturday. As always, totals will vary, but this is the general idea. Hopefully, most locations will receive some rain. We are in drought and there have been quite a few field and grass fires.

48-hour forecast Graphics

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Today’s Local Almanacs (for a few select cities). Your location will be comparable.

Note, the low is this morning’s low and not tomorrows.

The forecast temperature shows you today’s expected high and this morning’s low.

The graphic shows you the record high and record low for today. It shows you what year that occurred, as well.

It then shows you what today’s average temperature is.

It shows you the departures (how may degrees above or below average temperatures will be ).

It shows you the average precipitation for today. Average comes from thirty years of rain totals.

It also shows you the record rainfall for the date and what year that occurred.

The sunrise and sunset are also shown.

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Wednesday Forecast: Partly cloudy. A few more clouds over our northern counties. A morning shower or thunderstorm possible over mainly northern counties of southeast MO towards Mt Vernon, IL. Lower chances south of there.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 30%
Southeast Missouri ~ 20%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 10%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 30%
Southern Illinois ~ 20%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 20%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 20%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 20%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 20%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated ( mainly north)
Timing of the precipitation: Before 10 AM
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 73° to 76°
Southeast Missouri ~ 73° to 76°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 73° to 76°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 73° to 76°
Southern Illinois ~ 73° to 76°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 73° to 76°
Far western Kentucky ~ 73° to 76°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 73° to 76°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 73° to 76°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 73° to 76°
Winds will be from this direction: South southwest 10 to 20 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 72° to 76°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates and radars.
UV Index: 5. Moderate.
Sunrise: 7:08 AM
Sunset: 7:01 PM
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Wednesday Night Forecast: Partly cloudy. A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Chances will be higher over our far northern counties.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 30%
Southeast Missouri ~ 20%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 20%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 30%
Southern Illinois ~ 20%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 30%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 30%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 30%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 30%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 56° to 60°
Southeast Missouri ~ 56° to 60°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 56° to 60°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 56° to 60°
Southern Illinois ~ 56° to 60°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 56° to 60°
Far western Kentucky ~ 56° to 60°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 56° to 60°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 56° to 60°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 56° to 60°
Winds will be from this direction: South southwest 10 to 20 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 54° to 58°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates.
Moonrise: 8:59 AM
Moonset: 11:21 PM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent

Thursday Forecast: A mix of sun and clouds. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 40%
Southeast Missouri ~ 40%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 40%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 40%
Southern Illinois ~ 40%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 30%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 30%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 20%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 20%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time.
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 75° to 80°
Southeast Missouri ~ 75° to 80°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 75° to 80°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 75° to 80°
Southern Illinois ~ 75° to 80°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 75° to 80°
Far western Kentucky ~ 75° to 80°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 75° to 80°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 75° to 80°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 75° to 80°
Winds will be from this direction: South southwest 10 to 25 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 70° to 78°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Monitor the risk of severe weather.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates and the Beau Dodson Weather Radars.
UV Index: 4. Moderate.
Sunrise: 7:07 AM
Sunset: 7:02 PM
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Thursday Night Forecast: Cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms. Some storms could be intense with hail and gusty winds.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 90%
Southeast Missouri ~ 90%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 90%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 90%
Southern Illinois ~ 90%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 90%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 90%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 70%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 80%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 90%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time.
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 52° to 55°
Southeast Missouri ~ 52° to 55°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 54° to 58°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 52° to 55°
Southern Illinois ~ 52° to 55°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 52° to 55°
Far western Kentucky ~ 56° to 58°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 56° to 58°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 53° to 56°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 54° to 58°
Winds will be from this direction: Southwest becoming west northwest at 10 to 25 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 50° to 56°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Monitor the risk of severe thunderstorms.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B and monitor updates.
Moonrise: 9:33 AM
Moonset:
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent

Friday Forecast: Morning clouds. A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mainly early in the day, although showers and storms may linger into the afternoon over our eastern counties.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 20%
Southeast Missouri ~ 20%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 20%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 40%
Southern Illinois ~ 40%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 40%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 40%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 60%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 40%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the precipitation: Mainly during the morning, but precip may linger over our eastern counties.
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 62° to 65°
Southeast Missouri ~ 62° to 65°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 63° to 66°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 62° to 64°
Southern Illinois ~ 62° to 65°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 63° to 66°
Far western Kentucky ~ 63° to 66°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 66° to 68°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 63° to 66°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 63° to 66°
Winds will be from this direction: Southwest becoming west northwest at 10 to 20 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 60° to 65°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates and the Beau Dodson Weather Radars.
UV Index: 4. Moderate.
Sunrise: 7:05 AM
Sunset: 7:03 PM
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Friday Night Forecast: Some evening clouds. Clearing and cooler overnight. Clouds may linger a bit longer over our eastern counties.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 38° to 40°
Southeast Missouri ~ 40° to 44°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 42° to 45°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 38° to 40°
Southern Illinois ~ 42° to 44°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 44° to 46°
Far western Kentucky ~ 44° to 48°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 44° to 48°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 42° to 45°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 44° to 46°
Winds will be from this direction: North northwest 10 to 20 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 35° to 40°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 10:13 AM
Moonset: 12:36 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent

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Weather Highlights

1. Mild today into tomorrow.
2. Shower and storm chances today into tomorrow morning.
3. Showers and thunderstorms becoming likely Thursday afternoon into Friday morning. Ending west to east Friday.
4. Cooler this weekend into early next week. Freeze conditions possible in some counties.

Weather advice:

Do you have any suggestions or comments? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com

Make sure you have three to five ways of receiving your severe weather information.

Beau’s Forecast Discussion

Goo day, everyone.

A fairly complex weather forecast over the coming 48-hours. On and off shower and thunderstorm chances.

Peak chances will be along a cold front Thursday evening and night.

First, we are waking up to a few clouds over southeast Missouri and southern Illinois. A dying area of showers and thunderstorms has been making its way across eastern Missouri and has now entered northern portions of southern Illinois.

You can see that on this radar snap-shot. It is moving eastward and will likely die off soon.

The rest of today will deliver warm temperatures. Breezy, at times. A low end chance of a shower or thunderstorm, but most areas will simply remain dry. No concerns.

Temperatures will be WELL above seasonal averages. You can expect widespread high temperatures in the 70s! Nice for early March. Par for the course. It has been mostly warm over the past six weeks.

Here is the temperature anomaly animation. Red is above average. Blue is below. You can see the cold front sweep across the region Thursday night and Friday. Another stronger shot of cold air will be possible next Monday and Tuesday. Deeper blues.

Southerly winds will bring moisture into the region.

Here is the dew point animation. Dew point is a measure of moisture in the atmosphere. Typically, when forecasting severe thunderstorms, I look for dew points in the upper 50s into the sixties.

This is the NAM model and it does show dew points rising into the blue colors. That would be sixties. This means a few severe thunderstorms will be possible Thursday and Thursday night. There are differences in the timing in the model guidance. For now, I have peak thunderstorm chances during the late afternoon and evening/overnight hours.

A few storms will be possible at any given point between now and Thursday noon. But, higher chances after noon on Thursday.

Dew point animation. You can see that surge of blue colors. Higher moisture content in the atmosphere. Fuel for thunderstorms.

Here is the latest excessive rainfall outlook. The WPC has placed our region in a level one and two risk of flash flooding. If thunderstorms train over the same areas, then some flooding issues could develop. Widespread flash flooding is not anticipated. Isolated issues possible.

Let’s look at a few models. Scroll down farther to see more future-cast radar animations.

Here is the future-cast radar for tonight around 8 pm. A few storms may develop along a warm front over our far northern counties. Perhaps even just a tad north of my forecast area.

Additional high resolution models show that arcing line of storms to our norther tonight. Again, this is along a warm front that is advancing northward. The showers and storms would be moving north northeast.

Then, we start to think about Thursday and Thursday night.

A few thunderstorms will be possible Thursday morning and early afternoon.

Model data varies greatly on this idea. I kept thunderstorm chances capped in the 20 to 30% range Thursday morning into early afternoon.

Whether those will need to be bumped up to 40% will need to be monitored.

Of greater concern, will be the 3 pm to 3 am time-frame Thursday.

This is when the cold front will sweep across our region. This will bring showers and heavy thunderstorms.

Some of the storms could be severe with damaging wind, hail, and even a tornado.

Here is one computer model showing what the radar might look like around midnight or a bit after Thursday.

Other models bring this line of storms into the region before midnight.

This would be moving east southeast.

Looking at a variety of models, you can see the general idea. A line of storms moving west to east across the region.

Here is the significant tornado parameter for Thursday night. As you can see, there is some concern for spin in the atmosphere. I can’t rule out a brief tornado or two if a line of supercells forms or a line of storms forms.

Supercells typically cause higher end severe weather.

The Storm Prediction Center has outlined our region for the potential of severe weather tomorrow and tomorrow night.

The peak time-frame for the severe risk will be late afternoon into Thursday night.

We are now in a level one and two risk zone. The light green represents below severe levels. The dark green is a level one severe risk. The yellow is the level two risk of severe weather. Damaging wind and hail are the primary risk. An isolated tornado risk.

A few lingering showers and storms will be possible Friday morning, but the bulk of this event will be moving off to the east.

I will monitor our eastern counties, in case precipitation lingers a bit longer.

Another shot of cold air is possible Sunday into Tuesday. As a matter of fact, some models show 20s.

Here is the EC model. Monday morning lows.

Here is the GFS model. These are Monday and Tuesday lows.

Dry conditions are likely Saturday through Tuesday.

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This outlook covers southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and far northwest Tennessee.

Today’s Storm Prediction Center’s (SPC) Severe Weather Outlook

Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.

Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.

One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.

A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter or larger size hail, and/or a tornado.

Explanation of tables. Click here.

Day One Severe Weather Outlook

Day One Severe Weather Outlook. Zoomed in on our region.

Day One Tornado Probability Outlook

Day One Regional Tornado Outlook. Zoomed in on our region.

Day One Large Hail Probability Outlook

Day One Regional Hail Outlook. Zoomed in on our region.

Day One High wind Probability Outlook

Day One Regional Wind Outlook. Zoomed in on our region.

Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook. Day two outlook.

Day Two Outlook. Zoomed in on our region.

Day Three Severe Weather Outlook

The images below are from NOAA’s Weather Prediction Center.

24-hour precipitation outlook..
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48-hour precipitation outlook.
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Again, as a reminder, these are models. They are never 100% accurate. Take the general idea from them.

What should I take from these?

The general idea and not specifics. Models usually do well with the generalities.
The time-stamp is located in the upper left corner.

What am I looking at?

You are looking at computer model data. Meteorologists use many different models to forecast the weather.

Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM

Green represents light rain. Dark green represents moderate rain. Yellow and orange represent heavier rain.

This animation is the FVS Model.