March 12, 2024: Mild today. Shower and thunderstorm chances will be on the increase as we move through the week.

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Seven Day Hazardous Weather Outlook

1. Is lightning in the forecast? YES. Lightning is possible Tuesday night into Friday night. Peak chances will be Thursday afternoon/night into early Friday morning.

2. Are severe thunderstorms in the forecast? POSSIBLE. I am closely monitoring Thursday afternoon into Friday. Also, a few storms tonight could produce small hail.

3. Is flash flooding in the forecast? NOT AT THIS TIME.

4. Will non-thunderstorm winds top 40 mph? NO.

5. Will the heat index exceed 100 degrees? NO.

6. Will the wind chill dip below 10 degrees? NO.

7. Is measurable snow and/or sleet in the forecast? NO.

8. Is freezing rain/ice in the forecast? NO.
Freezing rain is rain that falls and instantly freezes on objects such as trees and power lines Freezing fog possible, as well.

Fire weather risk level.

Tuesday through Tuesday night: 5. Medium risk.
Wednesday: 4. Low risk.
Wednesday night: 4. Low risk.

Fire Weather Discussion

As high pressure continues to shift off to the east, expect south to southwest winds to steadily increase, especially during the afternoon. A warming trend and deeper mixing this week will maintain good dispersion. RHs are expected to drop into the 25 to 35 percent range today, but will trend for the rest of the week as dew points slowly climb. Winds will be breeziest Thursday ahead of a cold frontal passage. A slight chance of showers is possible tonight into Wednesday morning. The main storm system will arrive Thursday-Friday with showers and thunderstorms becoming widespread.

A Haines Index of 6 means a high potential for an existing fire to become large or exhibit erratic fire behavior, 5 means medium potential, 4 means low potential, and anything less than 4 means very low potential.

Seven-day forecast for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.

This is a BLEND for the region. Scroll down to see the region by region forecast.

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THE FORECAST IS GOING TO VARY FROM LOCATION TO LOCATION.

Scroll down to see your local forecast details.

Radars and Lightning Data

Interactive-city-view radars. Clickable watches and warnings.
https://wtalk.co/B3XHASFZ

If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.

Backup radar site in case the above one is not working.
https://weathertalk.com/morani

Regional Radar
https://imagery.weathertalk.com/prx/RadarLoop.mp4

** NEW ** Zoom radar with chaser tracking abilities!
ZoomRadar

Lightning Data (zoom in and out of your local area)
https://wtalk.co/WJ3SN5UZ

Not working? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com

Rain totals through Wednesday night will be on the light side.

Rain totals through Saturday.

48-hour forecast Graphics

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Today’s Local Almanacs (for a few select cities). Your location will be comparable.

Note, the low is this morning’s low and not tomorrows.

The forecast temperature shows you today’s expected high and this morning’s low.

The graphic shows you the record high and record low for today. It shows you what year that occurred, as well.

It then shows you what today’s average temperature is.

It shows you the departures (how may degrees above or below average temperatures will be ).

It shows you the average precipitation for today. Average comes from thirty years of rain totals.

It also shows you the record rainfall for the date and what year that occurred.

The sunrise and sunset are also shown.

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Tuesday Forecast: Some high clouds. Breezy, at times.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 70° to 72°
Southeast Missouri ~ 70° to 72°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 70° to 70°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 70° to 72°
Southern Illinois ~ 66° to 70°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 66° to 70°
Far western Kentucky ~ 66° to 70°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 66° to 70°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 66° to 70°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 70° to 72°
Winds will be from this direction: South southwest 10 to 25 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 66° to 70°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?
UV Index: 5. Moderate.
Sunrise: 7:10 AM
Sunset: 7:00 PM
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Tuesday Night Forecast: Periods of clouds with widely scattered thunderstorms. Storms could produce small hail over mainly southeast Missouri and southwest Illinois.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 40%
Southeast Missouri ~ 30%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 10%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 30%
Southern Illinois ~ 30%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 20%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 20%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 10%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 20%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered
Timing of the precipitation: After 12 AM
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 48° to 50°
Southeast Missouri ~ 48° to 50°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 48° to 50°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 46° to 50°
Southern Illinois ~ 48° to 50°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 48° to 50°
Far western Kentucky ~ 48° to 50°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 48° to 50°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 48° to 50°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 48° to 50°
Winds will be from this direction: South southwest 10 to 25 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 40° to 50°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Small hail where storms do occur (mainly MO/IL).
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates and radars.
Moonrise: 8:29 AM
Moonset: 10:07 PM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent

Wednesday Forecast: Partly cloudy. A slight chance of early morning showers and thunderstorms. Then, a chance of afternoon thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 30%
Southeast Missouri ~ 30%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 20%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 30%
Southern Illinois ~ 30%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 30%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 30%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 20%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 30%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 73° to 76°
Southeast Missouri ~ 73° to 76°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 73° to 76°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 73° to 76°
Southern Illinois ~ 73° to 76°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 73° to 76°
Far western Kentucky ~ 73° to 76°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 73° to 76°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 73° to 76°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 73° to 76°
Winds will be from this direction: South southwest 10 to 20 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 72° to 76°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates and radars.
UV Index: 5. Moderate.
Sunrise: 7:08 AM
Sunset: 7:01 PM
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Wednesday Night Forecast: Partly cloudy. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 30%
Southeast Missouri ~ 20%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 10%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 30%
Southern Illinois ~ 20%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 10%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 10%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 10%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 10%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 56° to 60°
Southeast Missouri ~ 56° to 60°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 56° to 60°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 56° to 60°
Southern Illinois ~ 56° to 60°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 56° to 60°
Far western Kentucky ~ 56° to 60°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 56° to 60°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 56° to 60°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 56° to 60°
Winds will be from this direction: South southwest 10 to 20 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 54° to 58°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates.
Moonrise: 8:59 AM
Moonset: 11:21 PM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent

Thursday Forecast: A mix of sun and clouds. A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Chances will be higher toward evening and overnight Thursday/Friday morning.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 30%
Southeast Missouri ~ 30%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 30%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 30%
Southern Illinois ~ 30%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 30%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 30%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 20%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 20%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered (perhaps even isolated). The bulk may wait until Thursday night.
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time.
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 74° to 78°
Southeast Missouri ~ 74° to 78°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 74° to 78°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 74° to 78°
Southern Illinois ~ 74° to 78°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 74° to 78°
Far western Kentucky ~ 74° to 78°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 74° to 78°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 74° to 78°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 74° to 78°
Winds will be from this direction: South southwest 10 to 25 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 70° to 78°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates and the Beau Dodson Weather Radars.
UV Index: 4. Moderate.
Sunrise: 7:17 AM
Sunset: 7:02 PM
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Thursday Night Forecast: Cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms. Some storms could be intense with hail and gusty winds.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 90%
Southeast Missouri ~ 90%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 90%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 90%
Southern Illinois ~ 90%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 90%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 90%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 70%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 80%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 90%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time.
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 52° to 55°
Southeast Missouri ~ 52° to 55°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 54° to 58°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 52° to 55°
Southern Illinois ~ 52° to 55°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 52° to 55°
Far western Kentucky ~ 54° to 58°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 54° to 58°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 52° to 55°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 54° to 58°
Winds will be from this direction: Southwest becoming west northwest at 10 to 25 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 50° to 56°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Monitor the risk of severe thunderstorms.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B and monitor updates.
Moonrise: 9:33 AM
Moonset:
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent

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Weather Highlights

1. Warmer today into Thursday. Mild.
2. Low end shower and storm chances Tuesday into Wednesday night.
3. Showers and thunderstorms becoming likely Thursday into Friday.
4. Cooler Saturday and Sunday. Low end shower chances Saturday night.

Weather advice:

Do you have any suggestions or comments? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com

Make sure you have three to five ways of receiving your severe weather information.

Beau’s Forecast Discussion

Good morning, everyone.

We are waking up to a wide range of temperatures. Wind is making the difference. Temperatures over northwest Tennessee have fallen into the 30s. Temperatures over southern Illinois are in the 50s!

Clouds and wind can make all the difference when it comes to low temperatures.

Clear calm nights are cooler than windy cloudy nights.

It will be a mild day ahead of us with widespread 60s and 70s. Spring weather.

Here is the temperature anomaly animation. This shows you how many degrees above average temperatures will be over the coming days. Lots of red.

Normal high temperatures are in the middle 50s. Normal lows in the middle 30s.

A few high clouds today, as well. Those clouds will be moving in from the west.

This is associated with a weak upper level system. This will help spark some showers and thunderstorms late tonight into early tomorrow morning.

Many areas will remain dry. A few spots will pick up a brief heavy thunderstorm with the possibility of small hail.

Severe weather appears unlikely tonight, but I can’t rule out a few hail reports. That would mainly be across northern portions of southeast Missouri and southern Illinois.

Rain chances are slightly higher in those areas.

Here is where the Hrrr model paints a few thunderstorms.

Other models show the storms farther to the west. Either way, the chances are higher over MO/IL.

1 AM Wednesday. Future-cast radar from the Hrrr model guidance.

8 AM Wednesday. Future-cast radar from the Hrrr model guidance.

Mid-morning Wednesday. Future-cast radar from the Hrrr model guidance.

That system will skirt off to the east Wednesday morning.

A couple of showers and thunderstorms will be possible Wednesday night into Thursday, but the chances will rapidly ramp up Thursday night into Friday morning.

That is when peak shower and thunderstorm chances arrive.

Here is a graphic the Paducah, Kentucky, NWS made. Showing time-frame for the rain.

There is discussion about some of the thunderstorms becoming severe Thursday night/Friday morning.

The primary concern will be hail and high winds. The tornado risk appears minimal.

For now, the Storm Prediction Center has our region in a level one severe weather risk. It could be upgraded to a level two risk.

Let’s keep an eye on it.

Wednesday into Thursday will be mild with highs in the 70s. Windy, as well. South southwest winds 10 to 25 mph. Gusty.

Here is the NAM model showing wind gusts Wednesday into Friday morning.

The cold front will push through the region Friday/Friday night with cooler temperatures arriving for the weekend.

I have been going back and forth with rain chances Saturday and Sunday. It now appears that any rain chances will be limited. Perhaps none at all.

I am watching a cold snap towards the 17th through the 22nd of the month. You can see the blue on this temperature anomaly map.

Whether this means a hard freeze will need to be monitored. It is possible.

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This outlook covers southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and far northwest Tennessee.

Today’s Storm Prediction Center’s (SPC) Severe Weather Outlook

Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.

Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.

One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.

A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter or larger size hail, and/or a tornado.

Explanation of tables. Click here.

Day One Severe Weather Outlook

Day One Severe Weather Outlook. Zoomed in on our region.

Day One Tornado Probability Outlook

Day One Regional Tornado Outlook. Zoomed in on our region.

Day One Large Hail Probability Outlook

Day One Regional Hail Outlook. Zoomed in on our region.

Day One High wind Probability Outlook

Day One Regional Wind Outlook. Zoomed in on our region.

Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook. Day two outlook.

Day Two Outlook. Zoomed in on our region.

Day Three Severe Weather Outlook

The images below are from NOAA’s Weather Prediction Center.

24-hour precipitation outlook..
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48-hour precipitation outlook.
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Again, as a reminder, these are models. They are never 100% accurate. Take the general idea from them.

What should I take from these?

The general idea and not specifics. Models usually do well with the generalities.
The time-stamp is located in the upper left corner.

What am I looking at?

You are looking at computer model data. Meteorologists use many different models to forecast the weather.

Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM

Green represents light rain. Dark green represents moderate rain. Yellow and orange represent heavier rain.

This animation is the NSSL MPAS Model.