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Seven Day Hazardous Weather Outlook
1. Is lightning in the forecast? YES. Lightning is possible Tuesday night into Friday night. Peak chances will be Thursday into Friday morning.
2. Are severe thunderstorms in the forecast? POSSIBLE. Some of the thunderstorms Thursday and Thursday night could become severe.
3. Is flash flooding in the forecast? NOT AT THIS TIME.
4. Will non-thunderstorm winds top 40 mph? NO.
5. Will the heat index exceed 100 degrees? NO.
6. Will the wind chill dip below 10 degrees? NO.
7. Is measurable snow and/or sleet in the forecast? NO.
8. Is freezing rain/ice in the forecast? NO.
Freezing rain is rain that falls and instantly freezes on objects such as trees and power lines Freezing fog possible, as well.
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Fire weather risk level.
Monday through Monday night: 5. Medium risk.
Tuesday: 5. Medium risk.
Tuesday night: 5. Medium risk.
Fire Weather Discussion
High pressure in control of the weather this morning will shift eastward throughout the day. Light surface winds this morning will increase from the south through mid week as the high pressure drifts farther away. Deeper mixing and the increasing winds will lead to good to very good dispersion through mid week. Relative humidity values will drop to the 20 to 30 percent range today before increasing to around 25 to 35 percent on Tuesday. Overnight relative humidity recoveries are expected to be fairly low at or around 70 to 80 percent tonight. Temperatures and dew points will trend higher through the early week as winds become southerly. Slight chances of rain are forecast Tuesday night into Wednesday, with the primary storm system arriving Thursday.
A Haines Index of 6 means a high potential for an existing fire to become large or exhibit erratic fire behavior, 5 means medium potential, 4 means low potential, and anything less than 4 means very low potential.
Seven-day forecast for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.
This is a BLEND for the region. Scroll down to see the region by region forecast.
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THE FORECAST IS GOING TO VARY FROM LOCATION TO LOCATION.
Scroll down to see your local forecast details.
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48-hour forecast Graphics
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Today’s Local Almanacs (for a few select cities). Your location will be comparable.
Note, the low is this morning’s low and not tomorrows.
The forecast temperature shows you today’s expected high and this morning’s low.
The graphic shows you the record high and record low for today. It shows you what year that occurred, as well.
It then shows you what today’s average temperature is.
It shows you the departures (how may degrees above or below average temperatures will be ).
It shows you the average precipitation for today. Average comes from thirty years of rain totals.
It also shows you the record rainfall for the date and what year that occurred.
The sunrise and sunset are also shown.
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Monday Forecast: Mostly sunny.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 66° to 68°
Southeast Missouri ~ 66° to 68°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 64° to 66°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 63° to 66°
Southern Illinois ~ 63° to 66°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 62° to 65°
Far western Kentucky ~ 60° to 65°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 60° to 65°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 62° to 65°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 60° to 65°
Winds will be from this direction: Southwest 8 to 16 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 58° to 66°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 5. Moderate.
Sunrise: 7:11 AM
Sunset: 6:59 PM .
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Monday Night Forecast: Mostly clear.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 38° to 42°
Southeast Missouri ~ 38° to 42°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 38° to 42°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 38° to 42°
Southern Illinois ~ 38° to 42°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 38° to 42°
Far western Kentucky ~ 38° to 42°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 38° to 42°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 38° to 42°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 38° to 42°
Winds will be from this direction: Southwest 10 to 25 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 32° to 40°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 8:00 AM
Moonset: 8:52 PM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent
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Tuesday Forecast: Becoming partly cloudy.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 66° to 70°
Southeast Missouri ~ 66° to 70°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 66° to 70°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 66° to 70°
Southern Illinois ~ 66° to 70°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 66° to 70°
Far western Kentucky ~ 66° to 70°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 66° to 70°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 66° to 70°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 66° to 70°
Winds will be from this direction: South southwest 10 to 25 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 66° to 70°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?
UV Index: 5. Moderate.
Sunrise: 7:10 AM
Sunset: 7:00 PM
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Tuesday Night Forecast: Partly cloudy. A chance of showers and thunderstorms over mainly our northern counties.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 30%
Southeast Missouri ~ 30%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 20%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 30%
Southern Illinois ~ 20%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 20%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 20%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 10%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 20%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the precipitation: After 5 PM
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 48° to 50°
Southeast Missouri ~ 48° to 50°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 48° to 50°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 46° to 50°
Southern Illinois ~ 48° to 50°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 48° to 50°
Far western Kentucky ~ 48° to 50°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 48° to 50°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 48° to 50°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 48° to 50°
Winds will be from this direction: South southwest 10 to 25 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 40° to 50°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates and radars.
Moonrise: 8:29 AM
Moonset: 10:07 PM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent
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Wednesday Forecast: Partly cloudy. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 20%
Southeast Missouri ~ 20%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 10%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 20%
Southern Illinois ~ 20%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 20%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 10%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 10%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 20%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Timing of the precipitation: Before noon
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 68° to 72°
Southeast Missouri ~ 68° to 72°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 68° to 72°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 66° to 70°
Southern Illinois ~ 66° to 70°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 66° to 70°
Far western Kentucky ~ 66° to 70°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 66° to 70°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 66° to 70°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 66° to 70°
Winds will be from this direction: South southwest 10 to 20 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 64° to 70°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates and radars.
UV Index: 5. Moderate.
Sunrise: 7:08 AM
Sunset: 7:01 PM
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Wednesday Night Forecast: Partly cloudy. A slight chance of showers.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 20%
Southeast Missouri ~ 20%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 10%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 20%
Southern Illinois ~ 20%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 10%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 10%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 10%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 10%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 52° to 54°
Southeast Missouri ~ 52° to 54°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 52° to 54°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 52° to 54°
Southern Illinois ~ 52° to 54°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 52° to 54°
Far western Kentucky ~ 52° to 54°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 52° to 54°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 52° to 54°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 52° to 54°
Winds will be from this direction: South southwest 10 to 20 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 48° to 54°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates.
Moonrise: 8:59 AM
Moonset: 11:21 PM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent
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Thursday Forecast: A mix of sun and clouds. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 30%
Southeast Missouri ~ 30%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 30%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 30%
Southern Illinois ~ 30%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 30%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 30%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 20%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 20%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time.
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 72° to 75°
Southeast Missouri ~ 72° to 75°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 72° to 75°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 72° to 75°
Southern Illinois ~ 72° to 75°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 72° to 75°
Far western Kentucky ~ 72° to 75°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 72° to 75°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 72° to 75°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 72° to 75°
Winds will be from this direction: South southwest 10 to 25 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 72° to 75°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates and the Beau Dodson Weather Radars.
UV Index: 4. Moderate.
Sunrise: 7:17 AM
Sunset: 7:02 PM
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Thursday Night Forecast: Becoming cloudy. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 70%
Southeast Missouri ~ 70%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 70%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 70%
Southern Illinois ~ 70%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 70%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 70%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 70%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 70%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 70%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time.
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 52° to 55°
Southeast Missouri ~ 52° to 55°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 54° to 58°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 52° to 55°
Southern Illinois ~ 52° to 55°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 52° to 55°
Far western Kentucky ~ 54° to 58°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 54° to 58°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 52° to 55°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 54° to 58°
Winds will be from this direction: Southwest becoming west northwest at 10 to 25 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 50° to 56°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Monitor the risk of severe thunderstorms.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B and monitor updates.
Moonrise: 9:33 AM
Moonset:
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent
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- Warming trend into the week.
- Low end shower and storm chances Tuesday into Wednesday.
- Showers and thunderstorms becoming likely Thursday into Friday.
- A few storms could be intense. Monitor updates.
Weather advice:
Do you have any suggestions or comments? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
Make sure you have three to five ways of receiving your severe weather information.
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Beau’s Forecast Discussion
The overall forecast for today into Tuesday is nicer. Temperatures will moderate a bit. It won’t be as cold.
Many of you are waking up to frost again this morning. We had a decent frost yesterday, as well. Some locations even had a freeze.
Same this morning. A bit of a range.
A weak disturbance or two will make their way across our region Tuesday night into Wednesday. A few showers and thunderstorms will develop.
The chance of rain will be higher over our northern counties vs southern counties.
Rainfall totals through Wednesday. Trace to 0.10″.
A stronger storm system will take shape over the Rockies and the Central United States Wednesday night into Thursday.
This system will push east northeast into our region Thursday into Friday night.
A few scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible as early as during the day on Thursday. Shower and thunderstorm activity will increase Thursday night into Friday. This will be the peak time-frame for activity.
The showers and storms may linger into Friday night. A few showers may linger into the weekend.
There is some debate about the probability of showers Saturday into Sunday. For now, I kept the percent chances low. I will monitor trends in the guidance.
A few of the thunderstorms Thursday into Friday could be strong. Depending on the track of the area of low pressure, there could even be some severe thunderstorms. I will be keeping a close eye on the charts.
Models shifted slightly south with the track of the low in Sunday’s data. That would push the severe risk south, as well.
If the low tracks farther north, then our severe chances will increase. For now, let’s keep an eye on it.
Rainfall totals through the weekend. Current thinking for totals. Some adjustments are still possible/likely.
Temperatures will be spring-like this week. Seventies are returning to the forecast. Breezy conditions, as well. Late winter and early spring gusty winds. Typical for March.
I am watching a potential cold shot around the 20th. Plenty of time to monitor that. Hopefully, we can avoid a hard freeze.
Let me show you the GFS model. It shows several cold waves. These blue colors represent below average temperatures.
Since this is the long-range confidence in the details will be lower.
March 19th
March 24th
March 27th
That last one is a doozey and would be a hard freeze. Let’s keep an eye on it. I know many trees are blooming. We don’t want to lose the fruit crop, again.
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This outlook covers southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and far northwest Tennessee.
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Today’s Storm Prediction Center’s (SPC) Severe Weather Outlook
Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.
Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.
One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.
A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter or larger size hail, and/or a tornado.
Explanation of tables. Click here.
Day One Severe Weather Outlook
Day One Severe Weather Outlook. Zoomed in on our region.
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Day One Tornado Probability Outlook
Day One Regional Tornado Outlook. Zoomed in on our region.
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Day One Large Hail Probability Outlook
Day One Regional Hail Outlook. Zoomed in on our region.
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Day One High wind Probability Outlook
Day One Regional Wind Outlook. Zoomed in on our region.
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Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook. Day two outlook.
Day Two Outlook. Zoomed in on our region.
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Day Three Severe Weather Outlook
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The images below are from NOAA’s Weather Prediction Center.
24-hour precipitation outlook..
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48-hour precipitation outlook.
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Again, as a reminder, these are models. They are never 100% accurate. Take the general idea from them.
What should I take from these?
- The general idea and not specifics. Models usually do well with the generalities.
- The time-stamp is located in the upper left corner.
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What am I looking at?
You are looking at computer model data. Meteorologists use many different models to forecast the weather.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
Green represents light rain. Dark green represents moderate rain. Yellow and orange represent heavier rain.
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This animation is the NSSL MPAS Model.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=6 AM. 18z=12 PM. 00z=6 PM. 06z=12 AM
Double click images to enlarge them. Blue is snow. Pink is a wintry mix. Green is rain.
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This animation is the NAM 3K Model.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=6 AM. 18z=12 PM. 00z=6 PM. 06z=12 AM
Double click images to enlarge them.
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This animation is the HRRR Model.
Green is rain. Yellow and orange are heavier rain. Pink is a wintry mix. Blue is snow. Dark blue is heavier snow.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=6 AM. 18z=12 PM. 00z=6 PM. 06z=12 AM
Double click images to enlarge them.
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This animation is the GFS Model.
Green is rain. Yellow and orange are heavier rain. Pink is a wintry mix. Blue is snow. Dark blue is heavier snow.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=6 AM. 18z=12 PM. 00z=6 PM. 06z=12 AM
Double click images to enlarge them.
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This animation is the EC Model.
Green is rain. Yellow and orange are heavier rain. Pink is a wintry mix. Blue is snow. Dark blue is heavier snow.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=6 AM. 18z=12 PM. 00z=6 PM. 06z=12 AM
Double click images to enlarge them.
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.Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 56 degrees.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 36 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.60″ to 1.20″
Six to Ten Day Outlook.
Blue is below average. Red is above average. The no color zone represents equal chances.
Average highs for this time of the year are in the lower 60s. Average lows for this time of the year are in the lower 40s.
Green is above average precipitation. Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation. Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.
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Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 38 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.60″ to 1.20″
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Eight to Fourteen Day Outlook.
Blue is below average. Red is above average. The no color zone represents equal chances.
Green is above average precipitation. Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation. Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.
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The app is under WeatherTalk in the app store.
Apple users click here
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Radars and Lightning Data
Interactive-city-view radars. Clickable watches and warnings.
https://wtalk.co/B3XHASFZ
If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.
Backup radar site in case the above one is not working.
https://weathertalk.com/morani
Regional Radar
https://imagery.weathertalk.com/prx/RadarLoop.mp4
** NEW ** Zoom radar with chaser tracking abilities!
ZoomRadar
Lightning Data (zoom in and out of your local area)
https://wtalk.co/WJ3SN5UZ
Not working? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.
Storm Prediction Center. Click here.
Weather Prediction Center. Click here.
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Live lightning data: Click here.
Real time lightning data (another one) https://map.blitzortung.org/#5.02/37.95/-86.99
Our new Zoom radar with storm chases
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Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.
GOES 16 slider tool. Click here.
College of DuPage satellites. Click here
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Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.
Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.
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