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Click one of the links below to take you directly to that section.
Do you have any suggestions or comments? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
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7-day forecast for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.
This is a blend for the region. See the detailed region by region forecast further down in this post.
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Tuesday through Tuesday
1. Is lightning in the forecast? Yes. Lightning will be possible today and tonight.
2. Are severe thunderstorms in the forecast? Yes. A few intense storms will be possible today and tonight. The primary concern will be damaging wind and perhaps a few tornadoes. This will occur as Tropical Storm Cristobal passes through our area. Typically, tornadoes with tropical storms are short-lived are very difficult to issue warnings on. The reason they are difficult is that they usually only last a few minutes. Monitor updates.
* The NWS officially defines a severe thunderstorm as a storm with 58 mph wind or greater, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
3. Is flash flooding in the forecast? Possible. Tropical downpours, associated with the remnants of Tropical Depression Cristobal, could briefly cause some water issues.
4. Will there be a chance of a frost or freeze? No.
5. Will the heat index exceed 100 degrees? No.
6. Will the wet-bulb globe temperature reach danger levels? No. We will, however, reach marginal levels.
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Tuesday WBGT (F): N/A° No concerns.
Wednesday WBGT (F): N/A° No concerns.
Thursday WBGT (F): N/A° No concerns.
Friday WBGT (F): N/A° No concerns.
Saturday WBGT (F): N/A° No concerns.
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The WetBulb Globe Temperature (WBGT) is a measure of the heat stress in direct sunlight, which takes into account: temperature, humidity, wind speed, sun angle and cloud cover (solar radiation).
This differs from the heat index, which takes into consideration temperature and humidity and is calculated for shady areas.
If you work or exercise in direct sunlight, this is a good element to monitor.
Sports coaches, schools, military agencies, OSHA, and many nations use the WBGT as a guide to managing workload in direct sunlight.
Something wrong on the page? Suggestions? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
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June 9, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High confidence
Tuesday Forecast: Mostly cloudy. A chance of showers and thunderstorms. A few storms could be intense. We will need to monitor the chance of tornadoes.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 60% IL ~ 70% KY ~ 90% TN ~ 100%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 84° to 86° SE MO 83° to 86° South IL 83° to 86° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 83° to 86° West KY 83° to 86° NW TN 84° to 86°
Wind direction and speed: South at 10 to 20 mph with gusts above 30 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 82° to 88°
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Locally heavy rain. Lightning. Tornadoes.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B.
UV Index: 10. Very high.
Sunrise: 5:34 AM
Sunset: 8:15 PM
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Tuesday night Forecast: Cloudy with a chance of showers and thunderstorms. Cooler over our western counties behind the cold front. Milder ahead of the front.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30% IL ~ 40% KY ~ 40% TN ~ 40%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 64° to 68° SE MO 63° to 66° South IL 66° to 70° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 70° to 74° West KY 68° to 72° NW TN 70° to 74°
Wind direction and speed: South and southwest at 10 to 20 mph with gusts above 25 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 63° to 66°
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? A few remaining showers and thunderstorms. Precipitation will pull away as we move through the night.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B the first half of the night.
Moonrise: 11:59 PM
Moonset: 9:12 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous.
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June 10, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High confidence
Wednesday Forecast: Partly cloudy. A slight chance of showers over mainly southeast Illinois and Kentucky. For the most part, the region will be dry. Nice temperatures.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 20% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 76° to 78° SE MO 75° to 80° South IL 75° to 80° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 75° to 80° West KY 75° to 80° NW TN 76° to 82°
Wind direction and speed: West and southwest at 10 to 20 mph and gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 75° to 80°
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Isolated wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 10. Very high.
Sunrise: 5:34 AM
Sunset: 8:16 PM
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Wednesday night Forecast: Mostly clear. Patchy fog.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 56° to 60° SE MO 54° to 58° South IL 54° to 58° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 58° to 60° West KY 56° to 60° NW TN 58° to 62°
Wind direction and speed: West wind at 5 to 10 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 54° to 58°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Patchy fog could reduce visibility.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 11:59 PM
Moonset: 10:14 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous.
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June 11, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High confidence
Thursday Forecast: Patchy AM fog. Mostly sunny. Mild.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 80° to 85° SE MO 80° to 84° South IL 80° to 84° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 80° to 84° West KY 80° to 84° NW TN 80° to 85°
Wind direction and speed: Northwest at 5 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 80° to 85°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Patchy morning fog will lower visibility.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 10. Very high.
Sunrise: 5:33 AM
Sunset: 8:16 PM
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Thursday night Forecast: Mostly clear. A few passing clouds. Patchy fog.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 60° to 62° SE MO 60° to 62° South IL 60° to 62° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 60° to 62° West KY 60° to 62° NW TN 60° to 62°
Wind direction and speed: Light wind
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 58° to 62°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Patchy fog.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 12:35 AM
Moonset: 11:14 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous.
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June 12, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Friday Forecast: Partly to mostly sunny. Mild.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 82° to 85° SE MO 82° to 84° South IL 82° to 84° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 82° to 84° West KY 82° to 84° NW TN 82° to 85°
Wind direction and speed: North and northwest at 4 to 8 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 80° to 84°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 10. Very high.
Sunrise: 5:33 AM
Sunset: 8:17 PM
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Friday night Forecast: Mostly clear.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 58° to 60° SE MO 56° to 60° South IL 56° to 60° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 56° to 60° West KY 56° to 60° NW TN 58° to 62°
Wind direction and speed: North and northeast at 4 to 8 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 54° to 60°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 1:05 AM
Moonset: 12:14 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous.
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June 13, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Saturday Forecast: Mostly sunny. A few clouds.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 82° to 85° SE MO 80° to 84° South IL 80° to 84° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 80° to 84° West KY 80° to 84° NW TN 80° to 85°
Wind direction and speed: Northeast at 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 78° to 84°
Coverage of precipitation: None.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 10. Very high.
Sunrise: 5:33 AM
Sunset: 8:17 PM
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Saturday night Forecast: Mostly clear.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 54° to 56° SE MO 53° to 56° South IL 53° to 56° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 53° to 56° West KY 54° to 56° NW TN 54° to 56°
Wind direction and speed: Northeast and east at 4 to 8 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 52° to 55°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 1:33 AM
Moonset: 1:10 PM
The phase of the moon: Last Quarter.
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June 14, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Sunday Forecast: Mostly sunny. A few clouds.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 80° to 84° SE MO 80° to 84° South IL 80° to 84° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 80° to 84° West KY 80° to 84° NW TN 80° to 84°
Wind direction and speed: Northeast at 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 78° to 84°
Coverage of precipitation: None.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 10. Very high.
Sunrise: 5:33 AM
Sunset: 8:18 PM
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Sunday night Forecast: Mostly clear.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 54° to 58° SE MO 54° to 56° South IL 54° to 56° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 54° to 56° West KY 54° to 56° NW TN 54° to 58°
Wind direction and speed: East at 5 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 54° to 58°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 1:59 AM
Moonset: 2:07 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent.
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June 15, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Monday Forecast: Partly to mostly sunny.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 82° to 85° SE MO 82° to 84° South IL 82° to 84° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 82° to 84° West KY 82° to 85° NW TN 82° to 85°
Wind direction and speed: East at 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 80° to 85°
Coverage of precipitation: None.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 10. Very high.
Sunrise: 5:34 AM
Sunset: 8:18 PM
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Monday night Forecast: Mostly clear.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 56° to 58° SE MO 54° to 56° South IL 54° to 56° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 54° to 56° West KY 54° to 56° NW TN 56° to 58°
Wind direction and speed: East at 5 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 56° to 58°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 2:24AM
Moonset: 3:04 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent.
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What is the UV index?
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- Locally heavy rain today and tonight.
- Decent weather after Tropical Storm Cristobal moves out of the region (by Wednesday).
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Click to enlarge the graphics.
Remember, this is an average across our local area. The county by county will vary. See the detailed forecast above for each area.
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Click graphics to enlarge them.
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These are dates that may have precipitation. Monitor the trends in the forecast.
Anything past day seven is low confidence.
Graphic-cast
Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
Illinois
During active weather check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page.
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Kentucky
During active weather check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page.
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Tennessee
During active weather check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page.
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Today through June 10th. There is a chance of damaging wind and tornadoes today. There remain questions about whether this is a lower end risk or a bit higher. Either way, monitor your app today.
Often times, tropical systems can produce short-lived tornadoes. They can be difficult to issue tornado warnings on. The reason is that they typically only last a few minutes.
Monitor your Beau Dodson Weather app. Make sure you are logged in.
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Today’s outlook (below).
Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.
Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.
One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.
A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter size hail, and/or a tornado.
The tan states are simply a region that SPC outlined on this particular map. Just ignore that.
The black outline is our local area.
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Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook.
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The images below are from the WPC. Their totals are a bit lower than our current forecast. I wanted to show you the comparison.
24-hour precipitation outlook.
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48-hour precipitation outlook.
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72-hour precipitation outlook.
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Weather advice:
Updated June 9, 2020
Locally heavy downpours will be possible today. Some briefing flooding issues could cause problems on easily flooded roadways.
Another concern will be short-lived tornadoes and damaging wind gusts this afternoon and evening.
Download the Beau Dodson Weather Talk app from the app store. Search for Weather Talk by the Fire Horn. Download it. Install it. It is for subscribers. Not a subscriber? Go to www.weathertalk.com/welcome
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Weather Discussion
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- Tropical depression Cristobal.
- Beautiful weather post-Cristobal.
The main weather story remains Tropical Depression Cristobal.
You can see Cristobal on this satellite image. Click on the image to enlarge it.
Want to see the live view of Cristobal? Go here (once there hit refresh) https://col.st/ht6z3
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The remnants have been moving northward over the last few days. Locally heavy rain occurred yesterday and overnight across portions of the area. Some of you received little or no rain. That was the forecast. It would vary considerably.
As you can see on radar, there are bands of precipitation spinning around Cristobal. A counter-clockwise spin. That is because of the area of low pressure. Low pressure spins counter-clockwise.
DATED radar. This is from 7 AM (this will be an old image as you move through the day).
See the live radar page here –> Radar Link: Interactive local city-view radars & regional radars.
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This spiraling helps to create wind shear. Wind shear is when the wind turns a different direction as you move higher up into the atmosphere. It can also mean an increase in wind speed with height.
This equals rotation. Thus, we will have to monitor today’s showers and thunderstorms. Keep in mind, during tropical systems. there does not have to be lightning and thunder in order for there to be tornadoes. In other words, a non-thunderstorm can even produce tornadoes.
The showers and thunderstorms will move rapidly south to north and southeast to northwest. The showers and storms can move in excess of 55 mph.
It is not uncommon for tornadoes to form from the remnants of tropical systems. They tend to be fast-moving and short-lived. This makes it difficult to issue tornado warnings. By the time a warning has been issued, the tornado is over.
My suggestion is to pay attention to your weather surroundings today. If you feel threatened from a shower or thunderstorm then seek shelter until that storm passes. I will send out an app message if something stands out.
Otherwise, avoid flooded roadways if that develops.
Some areas will receive little in the way of rainfall. Other areas will receive two or three inches of rain. It will vary greatly. Rain totals will come down to where the rain-bands form.
If showers and thunderstorms train over the same area then there will be excessive rainfall.
PWAT values are above two-inches. That is an extreme amount of moisture in the atmosphere. Showers and thunderstorms could produce an inch of rain in less than twenty minutes.
Gusty wind will also be with us today into Wednesday. Wind gusts above 40 mph will occur because of the pressure gradient.
Time-stamp upper left.
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Let’s take a look at rain probabilities. As you can see, rain chances peak today and tonight. A small chance of a few showers Wednesday. Mostly dry.
7 AM Tuesday into 7 PM Tuesday
7 PM Tuesday into 7 AM Wednesday
7 AM Wednesday into 7 PM Wednesday
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I do have some great weather news. Check out the extended forecast that I posted at the top of the blog.
Once this system pulls away from the area we will experience some amazing weather (esp for June). A beautiful weekend is on tap for the region.
Nice temperatures and nice humidity levels. Dew points will drop into the 50s. That means that it will feel great outside.
Remember, dew point is a measure of moisture. That is what makes it feel muggy outside. Today will be humid/muggy.
Dew points today will rise into the 70s. Louisiana air.
Check out Saturday and Sunday. A big drop in dew points. The air will feel great.
Saturday
Sunday
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Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
Again, as a reminder, these are models. They are never 100% accurate. Take the general idea from them.
What should I take from these?
- The general idea and not specifics. Models usually do well with the generalities.
- The time-stamp is located in the upper left corner.
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What am I looking at?
You are looking at different models. Meteorologists use many different models to forecast the weather. All models are wrong. Some are more wrong than others. Meteorologists have to make a forecast based on the guidance/models.
I show you these so you can see what the different models are showing as far as precipitation. If most of the models agree, then the confidence in the final weather forecast increases.
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This animation is the Hrrr model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Green is rain. Blue is snow. Pink and red represent sleet and freezing rain.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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This animation is the 3K American Model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Green is rain. Blue is snow. Pink and red represent sleet and freezing rain.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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This next animation is the NAM American Model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Green is rain. Blue is snow. Pink and red represent sleet and freezing rain.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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This next animation is the GFS American Model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Green is rain. Blue is snow. Pink and red represent sleet and freezing rain.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
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Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 84 degrees.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 73 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.00″ to 1.20″
Yellow and orange colors are above average temperatures. Red is much above average. Light blue and blue are below-average temperatures. Green to purple colors represents much below-average temperatures.
This outlook covers June 9th through June 15th
Click on the image to expand it.
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The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF AVERAGE. Brown is below average. Green is above average. Blue is much above average.
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Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 75 degrees
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.00″ to 1.20″
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This outlook covers June 16th through June 22nd
Click on the image to expand it.
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The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF AVERAGE. For example, if your average rainfall is 1.00″ and the graphic shows 25%, then that would mean 0.25″ of rain is anticipated.
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EC = Equal chances of above or below average
BN= Below average
M/BN = Much below average
AN = Above average
M/AN = Much above average
E/AN = Extremely above average
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 78 degrees
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.70″ to 2.20″
This outlook covers June 23rd through July 6th
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Precipitation outlook
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LONG RANGE DISCUSSION
Key Points: This was written by the BAMwx team. I don’t edit it.
Click to enlarge all of the images below
These graphics are updated Monday through Friday between 8:30 AM and 9:30 AM.
NOTE: These may not be updated on Saturday and Sunday.
Click the image below to enlarge it.
Summer outlook
Click to enlarge it. Then, you can read it better.
June through August
Temperature departures
Precipitation
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June temperature departures
Click on the images to enlarge them
Precipitation outlook
July temperature departures
Click on the images to enlarge them
July Precipitation
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Great news! The videos are now found in your Weathertalk app and on the WeatherTalk website.
These are bonus videos for subscribers.
The app is for subscribers. Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com/welcome then go to your app store and search for WeatherTalk
Subscribers, PLEASE USE THE APP. ATT and Verizon are not reliable during severe weather. They are delaying text messages.
The app is under WeatherTalk in the app store.
Apple users click here
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Radar Link: Interactive local city-view radars & regional radars.
You will find clickable warning and advisory buttons on the local city-view radars.
If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.
Not working? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.
Storm Prediction Center. Click here.
Weather Prediction Center. Click here.
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Live lightning data: Click here.
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Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.
GOES 16 slider tool. Click here.
College of Dupage satellites. Click here
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Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.
Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.
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