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Click one of the links below to take you directly to that section.
Do you have any suggestions or comments? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
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7-day forecast for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.
This is a blend for the region. See the detailed region by region forecast further down in this post.
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Wednesday through Wednesday
1. Is lightning in the forecast? Not at this time.
2. Are severe thunderstorms in the forecast? No.
* The NWS officially defines a severe thunderstorm as a storm with 58 mph wind or greater, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
3. Is flash flooding in the forecast? No.
4. Will there be a chance of a frost or freeze? No.
5. Will the heat index exceed 100 degrees? No.
6. Will the wet-bulb globe temperature reach danger levels? No. We will, however, reach marginal levels.
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Wednesday WBGT (F): N/A° No concerns.
Thursday WBGT (F): N/A° No concerns.
Friday WBGT (F): N/A° No concerns.
Saturday WBGT (F): N/A° No concerns.
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The WetBulb Globe Temperature (WBGT) is a measure of the heat stress in direct sunlight, which takes into account: temperature, humidity, wind speed, sun angle and cloud cover (solar radiation).
This differs from the heat index, which takes into consideration temperature and humidity and is calculated for shady areas.
If you work or exercise in direct sunlight, this is a good element to monitor.
Sports coaches, schools, military agencies, OSHA, and many nations use the WBGT as a guide to managing workload in direct sunlight.
Something wrong on the page? Suggestions? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
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June 10, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High confidence
Wednesday Forecast: Mostly sunny. There may be some wrap-around clouds from Cristobal. For the most part, today will be sunny.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 74° to 78° SE MO 74° to 78° South IL 75° to 80° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 75° to 80° West KY 75° to 80° NW TN 76° to 82°
Wind direction and speed: West and southwest at 15 to 30 mph and gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 74° to 78°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Windy conditions.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 10. Very high.
Sunrise: 5:34 AM
Sunset: 8:16 PM
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Wednesday night Forecast: Mostly clear.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 54° to 58° SE MO 53° to 56° South IL 54° to 58° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 54° to 56° West KY 54° to 58° NW TN 54° to 58°
Wind direction and speed: West 10 to 20 mph becoming west at 5 to 10 mph overnight.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 54° to 58°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 11:59 PM
Moonset: 10:14 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous.
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June 11, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High confidence
Thursday Forecast: Mostly sunny. Mild.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 80° to 85° SE MO 80° to 84° South IL 80° to 84° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 80° to 84° West KY 80° to 84° NW TN 80° to 85°
Wind direction and speed: Northwest at 5 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 80° to 85°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 10. Very high.
Sunrise: 5:33 AM
Sunset: 8:16 PM
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Thursday night Forecast: Mostly clear.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 60° to 62° SE MO 60° to 62° South IL 60° to 62° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 60° to 62° West KY 60° to 62° NW TN 60° to 62°
Wind direction and speed: Light wind
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 58° to 62°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Patchy fog.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 12:35 AM
Moonset: 11:14 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous.
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June 12, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Friday Forecast: Mostly sunny. Warmer.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 84° to 86° SE MO 84° to 86° South IL 84° to 86° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 84° to 86° West KY 84° to 86° NW TN 84° to 86°
Wind direction and speed: North and northwest at 4 to 8 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 83° to 86°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 10. Very high.
Sunrise: 5:33 AM
Sunset: 8:17 PM
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Friday night Forecast: Mostly clear.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 58° to 60° SE MO 56° to 60° South IL 56° to 60° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 56° to 60° West KY 56° to 60° NW TN 58° to 62°
Wind direction and speed: North and northeast at 4 to 8 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 54° to 60°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 1:05 AM
Moonset: 12:14 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous.
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June 13, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Saturday Forecast: Mostly sunny. A few clouds.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 82° to 85° SE MO 82° to 84° South IL 82° to 84° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 82° to 84° West KY 82° to 84° NW TN 82° to 85°
Wind direction and speed: Northeast at 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 82° to 85°
Coverage of precipitation: None.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 10. Very high.
Sunrise: 5:33 AM
Sunset: 8:17 PM
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Saturday night Forecast: Mostly clear.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 54° to 56° SE MO 54° to 58° South IL 54° to 58° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 54° to 56° West KY 54° to 58° NW TN 56° to 58°
Wind direction and speed: Northeast and east at 4 to 8 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 52° to 55°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 1:33 AM
Moonset: 1:10 PM
The phase of the moon: Last Quarter.
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June 14, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Sunday Forecast: Mostly sunny.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 78° to 80° SE MO 76° to 80° South IL 76° to 80° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 76° to 80° West KY 76° to 80° NW TN 80° to 82°
Wind direction and speed: Northeast at 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 78° to 84°
Coverage of precipitation: None.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 10. Very high.
Sunrise: 5:33 AM
Sunset: 8:18 PM
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Sunday night Forecast: Mostly clear.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 54° to 58° SE MO 54° to 56° South IL 54° to 56° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 54° to 56° West KY 54° to 56° NW TN 54° to 58°
Wind direction and speed: East at 5 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 54° to 58°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 1:59 AM
Moonset: 2:07 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent.
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June 15, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Monday Forecast: Partly to mostly sunny.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 82° to 84° SE MO 80° to 84° South IL 80° to 84° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 80° to 84° West KY 80° to 84° NW TN 80° to 84°
Wind direction and speed: East at 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 80° to 85°
Coverage of precipitation: None.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 10. Very high.
Sunrise: 5:34 AM
Sunset: 8:18 PM
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Monday night Forecast: Mostly clear.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 60° to 62° SE MO 58° to 62° South IL 58° to 62° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 58° to 62° West KY 58° to 62° NW TN 58° to 62°
Wind direction and speed: East at 5 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 58° to 62°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 2:24 AM
Moonset: 3:04 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent.
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June 16, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Tuesday Forecast: Partly sunny.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 82° to 84° SE MO 80° to 84° South IL 80° to 84° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 80° to 84° West KY 80° to 84° NW TN 80° to 84°
Wind direction and speed: East at 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 80° to 85°
Coverage of precipitation: None.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 10. Very high.
Sunrise: 5:34 AM
Sunset: 8:18 PM
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Tuesday night Forecast: Mostly clear.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 60° to 62° SE MO 58° to 62° South IL 58° to 62° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 58° to 62° West KY 58° to 62° NW TN 58° to 62°
Wind direction and speed: East at 5 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 58° to 62°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 2:49 AM
Moonset: 4:04 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent.
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What is the UV index?
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Click to enlarge the graphics.
Remember, this is an average across our local area. The county by county will vary. See the detailed forecast above for each area.
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Click graphics to enlarge them.
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These are dates that may have precipitation. Monitor the trends in the forecast.
Anything past day seven is low confidence.
Graphic-cast
Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
Illinois
During active weather check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page.
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Kentucky
During active weather check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page.
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Tennessee
During active weather check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page.
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Today through June 10th. Severe weather is currently not in the forecast.
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Today’s outlook (below).
Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.
Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.
One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.
A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter size hail, and/or a tornado.
The tan states are simply a region that SPC outlined on this particular map. Just ignore that.
The black outline is our local area.
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Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook.
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The images below are from the WPC. Their totals are a bit lower than our current forecast. I wanted to show you the comparison.
24-hour precipitation outlook.
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48-hour precipitation outlook.
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72-hour precipitation outlook.
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Weather advice:
Updated June 10, 2020
Strong and gusty winds today. Be careful if you are out on area lakes.
Download the Beau Dodson Weather Talk app from the app store. Search for Weather Talk by the Fire Horn. Download it. Install it. It is for subscribers. Not a subscriber? Go to www.weathertalk.com/welcome
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Weather Discussion
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- Breezy conditions today.
- Calm over the coming days.
We will have windy conditions today. Boaters use caution on area lakes and rivers.
Otherwise, no major weather concerns.
Tropical Depression Cristobal continues to pull away from the area. We will have some clouds remaining. A small chance of showers today over southeast Illinois and western Kentucky. Most of the region will be dry.
Dry weather through Sunday. Pleasant temperatures and dew points, as well.
Enjoy.
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Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
Again, as a reminder, these are models. They are never 100% accurate. Take the general idea from them.
What should I take from these?
- The general idea and not specifics. Models usually do well with the generalities.
- The time-stamp is located in the upper left corner.
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What am I looking at?
You are looking at different models. Meteorologists use many different models to forecast the weather. All models are wrong. Some are more wrong than others. Meteorologists have to make a forecast based on the guidance/models.
I show you these so you can see what the different models are showing as far as precipitation. If most of the models agree, then the confidence in the final weather forecast increases.
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This animation is the Hrrr model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Green is rain. Blue is snow. Pink and red represent sleet and freezing rain.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
No precipitation through Sunday.
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This animation is the 3K American Model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Green is rain. Blue is snow. Pink and red represent sleet and freezing rain.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
No precipitation through Sunday.
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This next animation is the NAM American Model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Green is rain. Blue is snow. Pink and red represent sleet and freezing rain.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
No precipitation through Sunday.
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This next animation is the GFS American Model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Green is rain. Blue is snow. Pink and red represent sleet and freezing rain.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
No precipitation through Sunday.
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Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
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Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 84 degrees.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 73 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.00″ to 1.20″
Yellow and orange colors are above average temperatures. Red is much above average. Light blue and blue are below-average temperatures. Green to purple colors represents much below-average temperatures.
This outlook covers June 10th through June 16th
Click on the image to expand it.
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The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF AVERAGE. Brown is below average. Green is above average. Blue is much above average.
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Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 75 degrees
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.00″ to 1.20″
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This outlook covers June 17th through June 23rd
Click on the image to expand it.
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The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF AVERAGE. For example, if your average rainfall is 1.00″ and the graphic shows 25%, then that would mean 0.25″ of rain is anticipated.
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EC = Equal chances of above or below average
BN= Below average
M/BN = Much below average
AN = Above average
M/AN = Much above average
E/AN = Extremely above average
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 78 degrees
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.70″ to 2.20″
This outlook covers June 23rd through July 6th
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Precipitation outlook
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LONG RANGE DISCUSSION
Key Points: This was written by the BAMwx team. I don’t edit it.
Click to enlarge all of the images below
These graphics are updated Monday through Friday between 8:30 AM and 9:30 AM.
NOTE: These may not be updated on Saturday and Sunday.
Click the image below to enlarge it.
Summer outlook
Click to enlarge it. Then, you can read it better.
June through August
Temperature departures
Precipitation
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June temperature departures
Click on the images to enlarge them
Precipitation outlook
July temperature departures
Click on the images to enlarge them
July Precipitation
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You will find clickable warning and advisory buttons on the local city-view radars.
If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.
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National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.
Storm Prediction Center. Click here.
Weather Prediction Center. Click here.
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Live lightning data: Click here.
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Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.
GOES 16 slider tool. Click here.
College of Dupage satellites. Click here
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Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.
Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.
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