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Click one of the links below to take you directly to that section.
Do you have any suggestions or comments? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
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7-day forecast for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.
This is a blend for the region. See the detailed region by region forecast further down in this post.
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Monday through Monday
1. Is lightning in the forecast? Yes. Lightning will be possible Monday night into Tuesday night as Cristobal passes through the region. Typically, lightning is not the main concern with tropical systems. A few lightning strikes will be possible.
2. Are severe thunderstorms in the forecast? Yes. A few intense storms will be possible this afternoon into Tuesday afternoon. The primary concern will be damaging wind and perhaps a few tornadoes. This will occur as Tropical Storm Cristobal passes through our area. Typically, tornadoes with tropical storms are short-lived are very difficult to issue warnings on. The reason they are difficult is that they usually only last a few minutes. Monitor updates.
* The NWS officially defines a severe thunderstorm as a storm with 58 mph wind or greater, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
3. Is flash flooding in the forecast? Possible. Tropical Storm Cristobal will push northward Monday night into Tuesday night. This could bring heavy rain to our local area. The heaviest rain totals will occur over southeast Missouri.
4. Will there be a chance of a frost or freeze? No.
5. Will the heat index exceed 100 degrees? No.
6. Will the wet-bulb globe temperature reach danger levels? No. We will, however, reach marginal levels.
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Monday WBGT (F): 84° Marginal. If working outside, then take 15-minute breaks each hour.
Tuesday WBGT (F): N/A° No concerns.
Wednesday WBGT (F): N/A° No concerns.
Thursday WBGT (F): N/A° No concerns.
Friday WBGT (F): N/A° No concerns.
Saturday WBGT (F): N/A° No concerns.
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The WetBulb Globe Temperature (WBGT) is a measure of the heat stress in direct sunlight, which takes into account: temperature, humidity, wind speed, sun angle and cloud cover (solar radiation).
This differs from the heat index, which takes into consideration temperature and humidity and is calculated for shady areas.
If you work or exercise in direct sunlight, this is a good element to monitor.
Sports coaches, schools, military agencies, OSHA, and many nations use the WBGT as a guide to managing workload in direct sunlight.
Something wrong on the page? Suggestions? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
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June 8, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High confidence
Monday Forecast: Increasing clouds from south to north as Cristobal approaches. Breezy, at times. A chance of showers and thunderstorms over the Missouri Bootheel and northwest Tennessee. Lower chances elsewhere.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 40% Bootheel and 20% further north IL ~ 20% KY ~ 30% Mainly far western Kentucky from Paducah down towards Mayfield and then west/southwest of that line TN ~ 40%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 86° to 90° SE MO 88° to 90° South IL 88° to 90° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 86° to 90° West KY 88° to 90° NW TN 88° to 90°
Wind direction and speed: East increasing to 10 to 20 mph and gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 88° to 94°
Coverage of precipitation: None during the morning. Scattered PM hours.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? A few wet roadways. Lightning. If thunderstorms form then they could produce strong and gusty wind.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars.
UV Index: 10. Very high.
Sunrise: 5:34 AM
Sunset: 8:15 PM
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Monday night Forecast: Cloudy. Increasing chances of showers and thunderstorms from south to north. Chances will be highest over southeast Missouri vs northwest Kentucky.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 90% IL ~ 70% KY ~ 60% TN ~ 70%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 70° to 74° SE MO 68° to 72° South IL 68° to 72° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 68° to 72° West KY 68° to 72° NW TN 70° to 74°
Wind direction and speed: Southeast at 10 to 20 mph with gusts above 30 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 68° to 72°
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Locally heavy rain. Wet roadways and lightning. Gusty wind.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B.
Moonrise: 11:17 PM
Moonset: 8:10 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous.
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June 9, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High confidence
Tuesday Forecast: Mostly cloudy. A chance of showers and thunderstorms. A few storms could be intense. We will need to monitor the chance of tornadoes.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 80% IL ~ 80% KY ~ 80% TN ~ 80%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 84° to 88° SE MO 84° to 88° South IL 84° to 88° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 84° to 88° West KY 84° to 88° NW TN 84° to 88°
Wind direction and speed: South at 10 to 20 mph with gusts above 30 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 82° to 88°
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Locally heavy rain. Lightning. Tornadoes.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B.
UV Index: 10. Very high.
Sunrise: 5:34 AM
Sunset: 8:15 PM
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Tuesday night Forecast: Cloudy with a chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 60% IL ~ 60% KY ~ 60% TN ~ 60%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 64° to 68° SE MO 64° to 68° South IL 64° to 68° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 64° to 68° West KY 64° to 68° NW TN 64° to 68°
Wind direction and speed: South and southwest at 10 to 20 mph with gusts above 25 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 63° to 66°
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Locally heavy rain. Lightning. I will monitor the severe weather risk early in the evening.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B.
Moonrise: 11:59 PM
Moonset: 9:12 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous.
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June 10, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High confidence
Wednesday Forecast: Mostly sunny. A few passing clouds. Pleasant.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 78° to 82° SE MO 78° to 82° South IL 78° to 92° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 78° to 82° West KY 78° to 82° NW TN 78° to 82°
Wind direction and speed: West and southwest at 10 to 20 mph and gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 78° to 84°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 10. Very high.
Sunrise: 5:34 AM
Sunset: 8:16 PM
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Wednesday night Forecast: Mostly clear. Patchy fog.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 58° to 60° SE MO 58° to 60° South IL 58° to 60° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 58° to 60° West KY 58° to 60° NW TN 58° to 62°
Wind direction and speed: West wind at 5 to 10 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 58° to 62°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Patchy fog could reduce visibility.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 11:59 PM
Moonset: 10:14 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous.
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June 11, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High confidence
Thursday Forecast: Patchy AM fog. Mostly sunny. Mild.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 83° to 86° SE MO 82° to 85° South IL 82° to 85° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 82° to 85° West KY 82° to 85° NW TN 83° to 86°
Wind direction and speed: Southwest at 5 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 83° to 86°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Patchy morning fog will lower visibility.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 10. Very high.
Sunrise: 5:33 AM
Sunset: 8:16 PM
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Thursday night Forecast: Mostly clear. A few passing clouds. Patchy fog.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 62° to 64° SE MO 60° to 64° South IL 62° to 64° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 62° to 64° West KY 62° to 64° NW TN 62° to 65°
Wind direction and speed: Light wind
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 60° to 65°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Patchy fog.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 12:35 AM
Moonset: 11:14 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous.
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June 12, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Friday Forecast: Partly to mostly sunny. Mild.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 82° to 85° SE MO 82° to 84° South IL 82° to 84° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 82° to 84° West KY 82° to 84° NW TN 82° to 85°
Wind direction and speed: Northwest wind at 7 to 14 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 80° to 84°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 10. Very high.
Sunrise: 5:33 AM
Sunset: 8:17 PM
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Friday night Forecast: Mostly clear.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 58° to 60° SE MO 58° to 60° South IL 58° to 60° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 58° to 60° West KY 58° to 60° NW TN 58° to 62°
Wind direction and speed: North and northwest at 4 to 8 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 54° to 56°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 1:05 AM
Moonset: 12:14 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous.
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June 13, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Saturday Forecast: Mostly sunny. A few clouds.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 82° to 85° SE MO 82° to 84° South IL 82° to 84° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 82° to 84° West KY 82° to 84° NW TN 82° to 85°
Wind direction and speed: North at 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 78° to 84°
Coverage of precipitation: None.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 10. Very high.
Sunrise: 5:33 AM
Sunset: 8:17 PM
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Saturday night Forecast: Mostly clear.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 58° to 60° SE MO 58° to 60° South IL 58° to 60° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 58° to 60° West KY 58° to 60° NW TN 58° to 62°
Wind direction and speed: West wind at 5 to 10 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 58° to 62°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 1:33 AM
Moonset: 1:10 PM
The phase of the moon: Last Quarter.
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June 14, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Sunday Forecast: Mostly sunny. A few clouds.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 82° to 85° SE MO 82° to 84° South IL 82° to 84° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 82° to 84° West KY 82° to 84° NW TN 82° to 85°
Wind direction and speed: North at 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 82° to 85°
Coverage of precipitation: None.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 10. Very high.
Sunrise: 5:33 AM
Sunset: 8:18 PM
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Sunday night Forecast: Mostly clear.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 58° to 60° SE MO 58° to 60° South IL 58° to 60° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 58° to 60° West KY 58° to 60° NW TN 58° to 62°
Wind direction and speed: West wind at 5 to 10 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 58° to 62°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 1:59 AM
Moonset: 2:07 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent.
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What is the UV index?
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- Locally heavy rain Monday night into Tuesday night.
- Decent weather after Tropical Storm Cristobal moves out of the region (by Wednesday).
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Click to enlarge the graphics.
Remember, this is an average across our local area. The county by county will vary. See the detailed forecast above for each area.
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Click graphics to enlarge them.
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These are dates that may have precipitation. Monitor the trends in the forecast.
Anything past day seven is low confidence.
Graphic-cast
Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
Illinois
During active weather check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page.
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Kentucky
During active weather check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page.
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Tennessee
During active weather check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page.
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Today through June 10th. Tropical Storm Cristobal will push through the region late Monday afternoon into Tuesday night. The spiraling armbands will produce quite a bit of wind shear. Wind shear is one ingredient when forecasting severe weather.
Often times, tropical systems can produce short-lived tornadoes. They can be difficult to issue tornado warnings on. The reason is that they typically only last a few minutes.
We have a chance of a few intense thunderstorms Monday afternoon into Tuesday afternoon/evening. The concern will be wind damage and perhaps a few tornadoes.
Monitor your Beau Dodson Weather app. Make sure you are logged in.
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Today’s outlook (below).
Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.
Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.
One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.
A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter size hail, and/or a tornado.
The tan states are simply a region that SPC outlined on this particular map. Just ignore that.
The black outline is our local area.
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Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook.
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The images below are from the WPC. Their totals are a bit lower than our current forecast. I wanted to show you the comparison.
24-hour precipitation outlook.
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48-hour precipitation outlook.
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72-hour precipitation outlook.
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Weather advice:
Updated June 8, 2020
Two concerns. One will be heavy rain associated with Cristobal both Monday night into Tuesday evening.
The heaviest rain will fall across southeast Missouri. Some brief flooding will be possible.
Another concern will be short-lived tornadoes Tuesday. The risk is not high. It is not a zero risk.
Download the Beau Dodson Weather Talk app from the app store. Search for Weather Talk by the Fire Horn. Download it. Install it. It is for subscribers. Not a subscriber? Go to www.weathertalk.com/welcome
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Weather Discussion
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- Tropical Storm Cristobal
- Nice weather after Cristobal exits the region.
The main weather topic over the coming days will be Tropical Storm Cristobal.
You can see Cristobal on this satellite view.
The tropical storm is moving northward into the Tennessee, Missouri, and Ohio Valleys. It will eventually be absorbed into another system pushing across the region.
Rain will arrive as early as late Monday afternoon across the Missouri Bootheel and western Tennessee. Perhaps far western Kentucky and extreme southern Illinois, as well.
The rain will push northward and overspread the region late Monday afternoon and especially Monday night into Tuesday evening.
Let’s break down the probability numbers for each 12-hour period of time.
7 AM today into 7 PM tonight
7 PM tonight into 7 AM Tuesday
7 AM Tuesday into 7 PM Tuesday
7 PM Tuesday into 7 AM Wednesday
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Locally heavy rain will be possible. PWAT values will be very high. PWAT is a measure of moisture in the entire atmospheric column.
High PWAT values usually equal heavy rain.
Check out the PWAT animation. You can make out the spiral of the tropical storm moving northward. These are very high PWAT numbers. You could pick up an inch of rain in less than 15 minutes from these types of numbers.
Click to enlarge the animation
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Tropical systems are known for producing torrential downpours. This is tropical moisture.
The heaviest rain will occur over southeast Missouri where several inches will be possible. As you move further east, the rain totals will decrease. Everyone should receive at least some rain.
Current rain projections. Of course, totals will vary. Thunderstorms can always produce higher amounts of rain.
Here are the latest forecast numbers
Let’s compare that to the previous update. Notice the shift westward?
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Another consequence of the tropical storm will be gusty winds. Winds will begin to pick up Monday and that will continue into Tuesday night.
Wind gusts above 40 mph will be possible as the low passes across our region.
Here is the wind gust animation map. Time-stamp upper left.
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The great news is that after Cristobal passes through the region, we will have a calm weather pattern into the weekend. Cooler, as well. It will be nice. See the extended numbers.
Models do disagree on high temperatures. For now, I took the middle of the road approach.
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Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
Again, as a reminder, these are models. They are never 100% accurate. Take the general idea from them.
What should I take from these?
- The general idea and not specifics. Models usually do well with the generalities.
- The time-stamp is located in the upper left corner.
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What am I looking at?
You are looking at different models. Meteorologists use many different models to forecast the weather. All models are wrong. Some are more wrong than others. Meteorologists have to make a forecast based on the guidance/models.
I show you these so you can see what the different models are showing as far as precipitation. If most of the models agree, then the confidence in the final weather forecast increases.
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This animation is the Hrrr model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Green is rain. Blue is snow. Pink and red represent sleet and freezing rain.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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This animation is the NSSL WRF model
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Green is rain. Blue is snow. Pink and red represent sleet and freezing rain.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
No precip in this time range.
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This animation is the 3K American Model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Green is rain. Blue is snow. Pink and red represent sleet and freezing rain.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it..
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This next animation is the NAM American Model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Green is rain. Blue is snow. Pink and red represent sleet and freezing rain.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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This next animation is the GFS American Model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Green is rain. Blue is snow. Pink and red represent sleet and freezing rain.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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This next animation is the EC Model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Green is rain. Blue is snow. Pink and red represent sleet and freezing rain.
This is in Zulu time. 12z = 7 AM. 18z = 1 PM. 00z = 7 PM.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
I am watching Tropical Storm Christobal. It will push northward next week.
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Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
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Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 84 degrees.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 73 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.00″ to 1.20″
Yellow and orange colors are above average temperatures. Red is much above average. Light blue and blue are below-average temperatures. Green to purple colors represents much below-average temperatures.
This outlook covers June 8th through June 14th
Click on the image to expand it.
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The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF AVERAGE. Brown is below average. Green is above average. Blue is much above average.
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Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 75 degrees
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.00″ to 1.20″
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This outlook covers June 15th through June 21st
Click on the image to expand it.
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The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF AVERAGE. For example, if your average rainfall is 1.00″ and the graphic shows 25%, then that would mean 0.25″ of rain is anticipated.
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EC = Equal chances of above or below average
BN= Below average
M/BN = Much below average
AN = Above average
M/AN = Much above average
E/AN = Extremely above average
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 78 degrees
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.70″ to 2.20″
This outlook covers June 19th through July 2nd
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Precipitation outlook
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LONG RANGE DISCUSSION
Key Points: This was written by the BAMwx team. I don’t edit it.
Click to enlarge all of the images below
These graphics are updated Monday through Friday between 8:30 AM and 9:30 AM.
NOTE: These may not be updated on Saturday and Sunday.
Click the image below to enlarge it.
Summer outlook
Click to enlarge it. Then, you can read it better.
June through August
Temperature departures
Precipitation
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June temperature departures
Click on the images to enlarge them
Precipitation outlook
July temperature departures
Click on the images to enlarge them
July Precipitation
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Live lightning data: Click here.
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Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.
GOES 16 slider tool. Click here.
College of Dupage satellites. Click here
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Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.
Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.
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