June 29th, 2020. Beau’s subscriber’s weather blog update. Not a subscriber? Go to www.weathertalk.com/welcome Once subscribed, download the WeatherTalk app in the app store

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7-day forecast for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.

This is a blend for the region. See the detailed region by region forecast further down in this post.

** CAUTION ** This week’s weather will vary GREATLY from county to county. Some counties will have flash flooding. Other counties may receive very little in the way of rainfall. **

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Monday through Monday

1. Is lightning in the forecast? Yes. Lightning chances will be with us today through at least Thursday.

2. Are severe thunderstorms in the forecast? Isolated. June thunderstorms can produce down-burst winds. Although isolated, they can produce wind damage. That would be the exception and not the rule.

* The NWS officially defines a severe thunderstorm as a storm with 58 mph wind or greater, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes

3. Is flash flooding in the forecast? Yes. Slow moving storms will cause flash flooding. The greatest risk of flash flooding will be across southern Illinois and northwest Kentucky. Areas that were hard hit on Sunday.

4. Will there be a chance of a frost or freeze? No.

5. Will the heat index exceed 100 degrees? Possible. We will be near 100 Monday afternoon (areas without clouds). Otherwise, Tuesday through Friday will likely deliver heat index values in the 90s. It will be quite muggy outside. Summer weather. As always, use care.

6. Will the wet-bulb globe temperature reach caution or danger levels? Yes.

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Monday WBGT (F): 81° Take 15 minute breaks each hour of working or exercising in direct sunlight.
Tuesday WBGT (F): 78° Below prevention numbers.
Wednesday WBGT (F): 78° Below prevention numbers.
Thursday WBGT (F): 81° Take 15 minute breaks each hour of working or exercising in direct sunlight.
Friday WBGT (F): 82° Take 15 minute breaks each hour of working or exercising in direct sunlight.
Saturday WBGT (F): 82° Take 15 minute breaks each hour of working or exercising in direct sunlight.
Sunday WBGT (F): 82° Take 15 minute breaks each hour of working or exercising in direct sunlight.

The WetBulb Globe Temperature (WBGT) is a measure of the heat stress in direct sunlight, which takes into account: temperature, humidity, wind speed, sun angle and cloud cover (solar radiation).

This differs from the heat index, which takes into consideration temperature and humidity and is calculated for shady areas.

If you work or exercise in direct sunlight, this is a good element to monitor.

Sports coaches, schools, military agencies, OSHA, and many nations use the WBGT as a guide to managing workload in direct sunlight.

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Plan on thunderstorms in the region over the coming days. It won’t rain all day. It won’t rain everywhere. Where storms occur they will produce heavy downpours. Typical for June.

Some locations may receive more than four inches of rain between now and Friday.

June 29, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Monday Forecast: Hazy. Hot. Humid. Highs will vary based on cloud cover. Scattered showers and thunderstorms. The chance is higher over southeast Missouri.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 40% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 20% TN ~20%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 86° to 90° SE MO 85° to 90° South IL 86° to 92° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 86° to 90° West KY 86° to 92° NW TN 90° to 92°
Wind direction and speed: South and southwest at 7 to 14 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 95° to 100°
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Locally heavy rain. Gusty wind near storms.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates and radars.
UV Index: 9. Very high.
Sunrise: 5:37 AM
Sunset: 8:20 PM
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Monday night Forecast: Intervals of clouds. A 30% chance of thunderstorms before midnight. A 60% chance after midnight. Flash flooding possible where storms train over the same area. Warm and humid.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 60% IL ~ 60% KY ~ 40% TN ~ 40%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 72° to 75° SE MO 72° to 75° South IL 72° to 74° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 72° to 74° West KY 72° to 74° NW TN 72° to 75°
Wind direction and speed: South and southwest at 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 70° to 75°
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated before midnight. Increasing coverage over southeast Missouri and then eastward after midnight.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Locally heavy rain. Gusty wind near storms. Slow moving storms can produce flash flooding.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check updates and radars.
Moonrise: 2:33 PM
Moonset: 1:35 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous

June 30, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Tuesday Forecast: Mostly cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms. Some storms will produce locally heavy rain. If clouds are thicker then high temperatures will be a bit lower. Warm and humid.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 80% IL ~ 80% KY ~ 70% TN ~60%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 86° to 90° SE MO 86° to 90° South IL 86° to 90° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 86° to 90° West KY 86° to 90° NW TN 86° to 90°
Wind direction and speed: South and southwest at 7 to 14 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 92° to 96°
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to numerous
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Locally heavy rain. Flash flooding where slow moving storms occur. Gusty wind near storms.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates and radars.
UV Index: 9. Very high.
Sunrise: 5:38 AM
Sunset: 8:20 PM
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Tuesday night Forecast: Mostly cloudy. A chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms. Warm and humid.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 60% IL ~ 60% KY ~ 60% TN ~60%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 70° to 74° SE MO 70° to 74° South IL 70° to 74° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 70° to 74° West KY 70° to 74° NW TN 70° to 74°
Wind direction and speed: South at 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 70° to 75°
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to perhaps numerous.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Locally heavy rain. Flash flooding where slow moving storms occur. Gusty wind near storms.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check updates and radars.
Moonrise: 3:43 PM
Moonset: 2:07 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous

July 1, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Wednesday Forecast: Mostly cloudy. A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Slow moving storms could cause flash flooding. If clouds are thicker then high temperatures will be a bit lower. Warm and humid.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 70% IL ~ 70% KY ~ 60% TN ~60%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 86° to 88° SE MO 86° to 88° South IL 86° to 88° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 84° to 88° West KY 86° to 88° NW TN 86° to 88°
Wind direction and speed: South at 7 to 14 mph with gusts to 20 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 86° to 94°
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to numerous
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Locally heavy rain. Flash flooding where slow moving storms occur. Gusty wind near storms.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates and radars.
UV Index: 8 to 9. Very high.
Sunrise: 5:38 AM
Sunset: 8:20 PM
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Wednesday night Forecast: Partly cloudy. A chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms. Warm and humid.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 40% IL ~ 40% KY ~ 40% TN ~ 40%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 70° to 74° SE MO 70° to 74° South IL 70° to 74° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 70° to 74° West KY 70° to 74° NW TN 70° to 74°
Wind direction and speed: South at 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 70° to 75°
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Locally heavy rain. Flash flooding where slow moving storms occur. Gusty wind near storms.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check updates and radars.
Moonrise: 4:54 PM
Moonset: 2:42 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous

July 2, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Thursday Forecast: Partly sunny. Warm and humid. Scattered thunderstorms. Warm and humid.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 50% IL ~ 50% KY ~ 40% TN ~40%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 84° to 88° SE MO 84° to 88° South IL 84° to 88° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 84° to 88° West KY 84° to 88° NW TN 84° to 88°
Wind direction and speed: South at 7 to 14 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 86° to 94°
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Locally heavy rain. Gusty wind near storms.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates and radars.
UV Index: 9 to 10. Very high.
Sunrise: 5:39 AM
Sunset: 8:20 PM
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Thursday night Forecast: Partly cloudy. A chance of scattered thunderstorms. Warm and humid.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30% IL ~ 30% KY ~ 30% TN ~ 30%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 70° to 74° SE MO 70° to 74° South IL 70° to 74° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 70° to 74° West KY 70° to 74° NW TN 70° to 74°
Wind direction and speed: South at 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 70° to 75°
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways and lightning. Locally heavy rain where thunderstorms occur. Typical of June storms.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check updates and radars.
Moonrise: 6:04 PM
Moonset: 3:21 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous

July 3, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Friday Forecast: Partly sunny. Warm and humid. Scattered thunderstorms. Warm and humid.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30% IL ~ 30% KY ~ 20% TN ~20%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 86° to 88° SE MO 86° to 88° South IL 86° to 88° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 86° to 88° West KY 86° to 88° NW TN 86° to 88°
Wind direction and speed: South at 7 to 14 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 86° to 94°
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Locally heavy rain. Gusty wind near storms.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates and radars.
UV Index: 9 to 10. Very high.
Sunrise: 5:39 AM
Sunset: 8:20 PM
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Friday night Forecast: Partly cloudy. A chance of scattered thunderstorms. Warm and humid.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 20% TN ~ 20%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 70° to 74° SE MO 70° to 74° South IL 70° to 74° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 70° to 74° West KY 70° to 74° NW TN 70° to 74°
Wind direction and speed: South at 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 70° to 75°
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways and lightning. Locally heavy rain where thunderstorms occur. Typical of June storms.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check updates and radars.
Moonrise: 7:11 PM
Moonset: 4:06 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous

July 4, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Saturday Forecast: Partly sunny. Warm and humid. Isolated thunderstorms. Warm and humid.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 20% TN ~20%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 84° to 88° SE MO 84° to 88° South IL 84° to 88° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 84° to 88° West KY 84° to 88° NW TN 84° to 88°
Wind direction and speed: South at 7 to 14 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 86° to 94°
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Locally heavy rain. Gusty wind near storms.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates and radars.
UV Index: 9 to 10. Very high.
Sunrise: 5:39 AM
Sunset: 8:20 PM
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Saturday night Forecast: Partly cloudy. A chance of isolated thunderstorms. Warm and humid.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 20% TN ~20%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 70° to 74° SE MO 70° to 74° South IL 70° to 74° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 70° to 74° West KY 70° to 74° NW TN 70° to 74°
Wind direction and speed: South at 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 70° to 75°
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways and lightning. Locally heavy rain where thunderstorms occur. Typical of June storms.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check updates and radars.
Moonrise: 8:13 PM
Moonset: 4:57 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous

July 5, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Sunday Forecast: Partly sunny. Warm and humid. Isolated thunderstorms. Warm and humid.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 20% TN ~20%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 84° to 88° SE MO 84° to 88° South IL 84° to 88° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 84° to 88° West KY 84° to 88° NW TN 84° to 88°
Wind direction and speed: South at 7 to 14 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 86° to 94°
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Locally heavy rain. Gusty wind near storms.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates and radars.
UV Index: 9 to 10. Very high.
Sunrise: 5:40 AM
Sunset: 8:19 PM
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Sunday night Forecast: Partly cloudy. A chance of isolated thunderstorms. Warm and humid.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 20% TN ~20%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 70° to 74° SE MO 70° to 74° South IL 70° to 74° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 70° to 74° West KY 70° to 74° NW TN 70° to 74°
Wind direction and speed: South at 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 70° to 75°
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways and lightning. Locally heavy rain where thunderstorms occur. Typical of June storms.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check updates and radars.
Moonrise: 9:07 PM
Moonset: 5:54 AM
The phase of the moon: Full moon

What is the UV index?

Muggy heat will return Friday into early next week. Highs in the upper 80s and lower 90s. Dew points in the mid 60s to low 70s (muggy).
A chance of thunderstorms, some with heavy rain, this weekend.

Click to enlarge the graphics.

Remember, this is an average across our local area. The county by county will vary. See the detailed forecast above for each area.

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Click graphics to enlarge them.

These are dates that may have precipitation. Monitor the trends in the forecast.

Anything past day seven is low confidence.

Graphic-cast

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Illinois

During active weather check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page.

Kentucky

During active weather check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page.

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Tennessee

During active weather check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page.

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Today through July 4th: Organized severe weather is unlikely. A few storms could produce isolated damaging downburst winds.

Today’s outlook (below).

Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.

Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.

One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.

A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter size hail, and/or a tornado.

The tan states are simply a region that SPC outlined on this particular map. Just ignore that.

The black outline is our local area.

Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook.

The images below are from the WPC. Their totals are a bit lower than our current forecast. I wanted to show you the comparison.

24-hour precipitation outlook.
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48-hour precipitation outlook.
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72-hour precipitation outlook.
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Weather advice:

Updated June 29, 2020

The main concern will be muggy weather with heat index values around 100 degrees Monday. Heat index values will vary based on cloud cover.

Locally heavy rain will cause flash flooding in some counties. Flash flooding will be more likely across southern Illinois and northwest Kentucky. Especially areas that were hit hard Saturday night and Sunday. That is when one to six inches of rain fell over a large area. Avoid flooded roadways.

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Weather Discussion

1. Warm and muggy weather.
2. Thunderstorm chances.
3. Locally heavy rain and flash flooding.

It was quite the weekend of weather.

Saturday was muggy and hot with a band of heavy storms across portions of the Missouri Bootheel into western Kentucky and Tennessee. Some areas picked up more than two inches. Tropical downpours.

Saturday night into Sunday brought widespread flash flooding across portions of southern Illinois and western Kentucky. Some counties have virtually every road with water on them.

Rain totals of zero to six inches fell across the region. Quite the range but that was the forecast.

We have additional weather coming.

A unusually difficult forecast is unfolding across the four state region. Over the next four days some areas will receive less than 0.25″ of rain. Other areas will receive one to four inches of rain. Possibly more depending on where some features set-up shop.

The heaviest rain will likely fall across portions of southern Illinois and northwest Kentucky. Perhaps northern portions of southeast Missouri, as well.

A system over Oklahoma will push northeast today into Missouri.

Some scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible today. Many areas will remain dry. Chances of rain are a bit higher over southeast Missouri today.

An MCV will move into Missouri and Illinois tonight and tomorrow. Think of an MCV as an area of low pressure. Typically, these features bring heavy rain to our region. Sometimes even severe weather.

This feature will likely move into eastern Missouri and central Illinois over the next 24 hours.

Showers and heavy thunderstorms will rotate around this system. Training of thunderstorms will be likely. Training means that thunderstorms move over the same area.

It is extremely important to nail down where the MCV moves. That will decide how much rain one location receives.

For now, the heaviest rain totals will likely be across our northern and northeastern counties.

Small chances in the placement of the MCV will change the forecast placement of the heavy rain totals.

The atmosphere is loaded with moisture. PWAT values are over two inches. That is a very high number for any time of the year. It means that heavy rain will likely occur when thunderstorms develop. You can pick up an inch of rain in less than twenty minutes. This can lead to flooded roadways.

Avoid flooded roadways, as always.

Locally heavy rain will be possible through Wednesday. That is when the entire system will begin to shift out of our region.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue into Thursday. The activity will then become more isolated as we move into Friday, Saturday, and Sunday.

The holiday weekend will deliver lower-end thunderstorm chances. Warm temperatures. Humid.

Let me show you some of the model forecast numbers for rain totals. Models won’t handle a system all that well. Locally very heavy rain will occur over the coming days.

NOAA’s outlook

GFS model

NAM model

NAM 3K model

EC model

As you can see, rain totals do vary.

There will be a small risk of severe weather over the coming days. Cloud cover may help mitigate some of that. The concern would be damaging wind gusts. The risk is a bit higher Tuesday vs today.

Overall, the primary concern will be heavy rain and lightning.

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Again, as a reminder, these are models. They are never 100% accurate. Take the general idea from them.

What should I take from these?

The general idea and not specifics. Models usually do well with the generalities.
The time-stamp is located in the upper left corner.

What am I looking at?
You are looking at different models. Meteorologists use many different models to forecast the weather. All models are wrong. Some are more wrong than others. Meteorologists have to make a forecast based on the guidance/models.

I show you these so you can see what the different models are showing as far as precipitation. If most of the models agree, then the confidence in the final weather forecast increases.

This animation is the Hrrr model.

This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.