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7-day forecast for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.
This is a blend for the region. See the detailed region by region forecast further down in this post.
** CAUTION ** This week’s weather will vary GREATLY from county to county. Some counties will have flash flooding. Other counties may receive very little in the way of rainfall. **
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Tuesday through Tuesday
1. Is lightning in the forecast? Yes. Lightning chances will be with us today through the weekend.
2. Are severe thunderstorms in the forecast? Low-end risk. Damaging wind is the main concern. A few storms could produce that.
* The NWS officially defines a severe thunderstorm as a storm with 58 mph wind or greater, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
3. Is flash flooding in the forecast? Yes. Slow moving storms will cause flash flooding. Some locations could receive very heavy rain totals in a short amount of time. The atmosphere is loaded.
4. Will there be a chance of a frost or freeze? No.
5. Will the heat index exceed 100 degrees? Unlikely. It will still be quite muggy outside. Summer weather. As always, use care.
6. Will the wet-bulb globe temperature reach caution or danger levels? Yes.
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Tuesday WBGT (F): 81° Areas away from rain and clouds will need to take breaks each hour. Muggy conditions.
Wednesday WBGT (F): 78° Below prevention numbers.
Thursday WBGT (F): 81° Take 15 minute breaks each hour of working or exercising in direct sunlight.
Friday WBGT (F): 82° Take 15 minute breaks each hour of working or exercising in direct sunlight.
Saturday WBGT (F): 82° Take 15 minute breaks each hour of working or exercising in direct sunlight.
Sunday WBGT (F): 82° Take 15 minute breaks each hour of working or exercising in direct sunlight.
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The WetBulb Globe Temperature (WBGT) is a measure of the heat stress in direct sunlight, which takes into account: temperature, humidity, wind speed, sun angle and cloud cover (solar radiation).
This differs from the heat index, which takes into consideration temperature and humidity and is calculated for shady areas.
If you work or exercise in direct sunlight, this is a good element to monitor.
Sports coaches, schools, military agencies, OSHA, and many nations use the WBGT as a guide to managing workload in direct sunlight.
Something wrong on the page? Suggestions? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
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Plan on thunderstorms in the region over the coming days. It won’t rain all day. It won’t rain everywhere. Where storms occur they will produce extremely heavy downpours.
Some locations may receive more than four inches of rain between now and Thursday. There is a chance that some areas pick up five or six+ inches. The atmosphere is loaded with moisture.
June 30, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Tuesday Forecast: Mostly cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms. Some storms will produce locally very heavy rain. If clouds are thicker then high temperatures will be a bit lower. Warm and humid. Slow moving storms could cause flash flooding.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 90% IL ~ 90% KY ~ 70% TN ~60%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 86° to 90° SE MO 84° to 88° South IL 84° to 88° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 84° to 88° West KY 85° to 90° NW TN 85° to 90°
Wind direction and speed: South and southwest at 7 to 14 mph. Higher gusts.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 86° to 96°
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Locally heavy rain. Flash flooding where slow moving storms occur. Gusty wind near storms.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B. Monitor radars and updates.
UV Index: 9. Very high.
Sunrise: 5:38 AM
Sunset: 8:20 PM
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Tuesday night Forecast: Mostly cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms likely. Some storms will produce very heavy rain. Warm and humid. Slow moving storms could cause flash flooding.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 70% IL ~ 70% KY ~ 60% TN ~60%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 72° to 74° SE MO 70° to 74° South IL 70° to 74° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 70° to 74° West KY 70° to 74° NW TN 72° to 74°
Wind direction and speed: South at 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 70° to 75°
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Locally heavy rain. Flash flooding where slow moving storms occur. Gusty wind near storms.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check updates and radars.
Moonrise: 3:43 PM
Moonset: 2:07 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous
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July 1, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Wednesday Forecast: Mostly cloudy. A chance of showers and thunderstorms. If clouds are thicker then high temperatures will be a bit lower. Warm and humid.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 70% IL ~ 70% KY ~ 60% TN ~60%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 86° to 88° SE MO 86° to 88° South IL 86° to 88° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 84° to 88° West KY 86° to 88° NW TN 86° to 88°
Wind direction and speed: South at 7 to 14 mph with gusts to 20 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 86° to 94°
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to numerous
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Locally heavy rain. Flash flooding where slow moving storms occur. Gusty wind near storms.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates and radars.
UV Index: 8 to 9. Very high.
Sunrise: 5:38 AM
Sunset: 8:20 PM
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Wednesday night Forecast: Partly cloudy. A chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms. Warm and humid.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 40% IL ~ 40% KY ~ 40% TN ~ 40%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 72° to 74° SE MO 72° to 74° South IL 72° to 74° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 72° to 74° West KY 72° to 74° NW TN 72° to 75°
Wind direction and speed: South at 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 70° to 75°
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Locally heavy rain. Flash flooding where slow moving storms occur. Gusty wind near storms.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check updates and radars.
Moonrise: 4:54 PM
Moonset: 2:42 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous
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July 2, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Thursday Forecast: Partly sunny. Warm and humid. Widely scattered thunderstorms. Warm and humid.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30% IL ~ 30% KY ~ 30% TN ~30%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 88° to 94° SE MO 88° to 92° South IL 88° to 92° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 88° to 92° West KY 88° to 92° NW TN 88° to 92°
Wind direction and speed: Variable wind direction at 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 86° to 94°
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated to widely scattered
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Locally heavy rain. Gusty wind near storms.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars.
UV Index: 9 to 10. Very high.
Sunrise: 5:39 AM
Sunset: 8:20 PM
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Thursday night Forecast: Partly cloudy. An isolated thunderstorm chance.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 10% IL ~ 10% KY ~ 10% TN ~ 10%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 70° to 74° SE MO 70° to 74° South IL 70° to 74° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 70° to 74° West KY 70° to 74° NW TN 70° to 74°
Wind direction and speed: South at 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 70° to 75°
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways and lightning. Locally heavy rain where thunderstorms occur. Typical of June storms.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars.
Moonrise: 6:04 PM
Moonset: 3:21 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous
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July 3, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Friday Forecast: Partly sunny. Warm and humid. Isolated thunderstorms. Warm and humid.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30% IL ~ 30% KY ~ 20% TN ~20%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 88° to 94° SE MO 88° to 92° South IL 88° to 92° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 88° to 92° West KY 88° to 92° NW TN 88° to 92°
Wind direction and speed: Northeast at 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 86° to 94°
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Locally heavy rain. Gusty wind near storms.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates and radars.
UV Index: 9 to 10. Very high.
Sunrise: 5:39 AM
Sunset: 8:20 PM
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Friday night Forecast: Partly cloudy. Warm.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 10% IL ~ 10% KY ~ 10% TN ~ 10%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 70° to 74° SE MO 70° to 74° South IL 70° to 74° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 70° to 74° West KY 70° to 74° NW TN 70° to 74°
Wind direction and speed: South at 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 70° to 75°
Coverage of precipitation: Most likely none
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Most likely none
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 7:11 PM
Moonset: 4:06 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous
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July 4, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Saturday Forecast: Partly sunny. Warm and humid. Isolated thunderstorms. Warm and humid.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 15% IL ~ 15% KY ~ 10% TN ~10%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 88° to 94° SE MO 88° to 92° South IL 88° to 92° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 88° to 92° West KY 88° to 92° NW TN 88° to 92°
Wind direction and speed: Northeast at 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 88° to 94°
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Locally heavy rain. Gusty wind near storms.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates and radars.
UV Index: 9 to 10. Very high.
Sunrise: 5:39 AM
Sunset: 8:20 PM
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Saturday night Forecast: Partly cloudy. A chance of isolated thunderstorms. Warm and humid.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 10% IL ~ 10% KY ~ 10% TN ~10%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 70° to 74° SE MO 70° to 74° South IL 70° to 74° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 70° to 74° West KY 70° to 74° NW TN 70° to 74°
Wind direction and speed: Northeast at 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 70° to 75°
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways and lightning. Locally heavy rain where thunderstorms occur. Typical of June storms.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check updates and radars.
Moonrise: 8:13 PM
Moonset: 4:57 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous
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July 5, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Sunday Forecast: Partly sunny. Warm and humid. Isolated thunderstorms. Warm and humid.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 20% TN ~20%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 88° to 94° SE MO 88° to 92° South IL 88° to 92° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 88° to 92° West KY 88° to 92° NW TN 88° to 92°
Wind direction and speed: East and southeast at 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 88° to 96°
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Locally heavy rain. Gusty wind near storms.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates and radars.
UV Index: 9 to 10. Very high.
Sunrise: 5:40 AM
Sunset: 8:19 PM
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Sunday night Forecast: Partly cloudy. A chance of isolated thunderstorms. Warm and humid.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 15% IL ~ 15% KY ~ 15% TN ~15%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 70° to 74° SE MO 70° to 74° South IL 70° to 74° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 70° to 74° West KY 70° to 74° NW TN 70° to 74°
Wind direction and speed: Southeast at 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 70° to 75°
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways and lightning. Locally heavy rain where thunderstorms occur. Typical of June storms.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check updates and radars.
Moonrise: 9:07 PM
Moonset: 5:54 AM
The phase of the moon: Full moon
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What is the UV index?
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- Muggy heat.
- Some thunderstorms will produce flash flooding.
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Click to enlarge the graphics.
Remember, this is an average across our local area. The county by county will vary. See the detailed forecast above for each area.
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Click graphics to enlarge them.
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These are dates that may have precipitation. Monitor the trends in the forecast.
Anything past day seven is low confidence.
Graphic-cast
Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
Illinois
During active weather check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page.
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Kentucky
During active weather check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page.
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Tennessee
During active weather check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page.
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Today through July 4th: Organized severe weather is unlikely. A few storms could produce isolated damaging downburst winds.
Today’s outlook (below).
Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.
Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.
One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.
A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter size hail, and/or a tornado.
The tan states are simply a region that SPC outlined on this particular map. Just ignore that.
The black outline is our local area.
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Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook.
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The images below are from the WPC. Their totals are a bit lower than our current forecast. I wanted to show you the comparison.
24-hour precipitation outlook.
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48-hour precipitation outlook.
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72-hour precipitation outlook.
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Weather advice:
Updated June 29, 2020
The main concern will be muggy weather with heat index values around 100 degrees Monday. Heat index values will vary based on cloud cover.
Locally heavy rain will cause flash flooding in some counties. Flash flooding will be more likely across southern Illinois and northwest Kentucky. Especially areas that were hit hard Saturday night and Sunday. That is when one to six inches of rain fell over a large area. Avoid flooded roadways.
Download the Beau Dodson Weather Talk app from the app store. Search for Weather Talk by the Fire Horn. Download it. Install it. It is for subscribers. Not a subscriber? Go to www.weathertalk.com/welcome
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Weather Discussion
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- Warm and muggy weather.
- Thunderstorm chances.
- Locally heavy rain and flash flooding.
I am in Murray, Kentucky, The internet is down and has been down since yesterday afternoon. I will upload these animations when possible.
A difficult forecast continues to unfold across the region.
As I type this, numerous counties are already under flash flood warnings.
Very high PWAT values (moisture in the atmosphere) are being reported across the region. Numbers that are more typically associated with tropical storms and hurricanes.
PWAT values of 2 to 2.4″ are being reported.
Those numbers mean that some locations could pick up and inch or two of rain in less than twenty minutes. Very heavy tropical-like downpours.
Flash flooding is a concern through Wednesday.
We already have a radar full of heavy thunderstorms this morning (writing this at 6 am). These are slow moving storms and they are producing copious amounts of lightning and rain.
Avoid flooded roadways.
There is also a chance that a few thunderstorms could produce wind damage. Model guidance shows the potential of several bands of bowing thunderstorms over the next 24 to 48 hours. These bowing areas could produce high wind.
Isolated downburst wind is also possible. Downburst wind can produce tree and power line damage. They tend to be short-lived events. Small in size.
Rain totals between now and Thursday will range from 0.00″ to over 6.00″. It will vary that much! Not unusual for a June heavy rain event.
June is typically one of our bigger flash flood months. That is because of the amount of energy and moisture availale for thunderstorms to tap into.
Rain chances will begin to lower by Thursday and Friday.
The holiday weekend is forecast to be warm and humid. Partly to mostly sunny sky conditions. Isolated summer-type thunderstorm chances. That would be 0% to 20% chances.
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Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
Again, as a reminder, these are models. They are never 100% accurate. Take the general idea from them.
What should I take from these?
- The general idea and not specifics. Models usually do well with the generalities.
- The time-stamp is located in the upper left corner.
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What am I looking at?
You are looking at different models. Meteorologists use many different models to forecast the weather. All models are wrong. Some are more wrong than others. Meteorologists have to make a forecast based on the guidance/models.
I show you these so you can see what the different models are showing as far as precipitation. If most of the models agree, then the confidence in the final weather forecast increases.
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This animation is the Hrrr model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Green is rain. Blue is snow. Pink and red represent sleet and freezing rain.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
This animation is the SPC WRF model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Green is rain. Blue is snow. Pink and red represent sleet and freezing rain.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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This animation is the 3K American Model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Green is rain. Blue is snow. Pink and red represent sleet and freezing rain.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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This next animation is the NAM American Model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Green is rain. Blue is snow. Pink and red represent sleet and freezing rain.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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This next animation is the GFS American Model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Green is rain. Blue is snow. Pink and red represent sleet and freezing rain.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
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Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 84 degrees.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 73 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.00″ to 1.20″
Yellow and orange colors are above average temperatures. Red is much above average. Light blue and blue are below-average temperatures. Green to purple colors represents much below-average temperatures.
This outlook covers June 30th through July 6th
Click on the image to expand it.
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The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF AVERAGE. Brown is below average. Green is above average. Blue is much above average.
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Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 76 degrees
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.00″ to 1.20″
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This outlook covers July 7th through July 13th
Click on the image to expand it.
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The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF AVERAGE. For example, if your average rainfall is 1.00″ and the graphic shows 25%, then that would mean 0.25″ of rain is anticipated.
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EC = Equal chances of above or below average
BN= Below average
M/BN = Much below average
AN = Above average
M/AN = Much above average
E/AN = Extremely above average
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 69 degrees
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.70″ to 2.20″
This outlook covers July 14th through July 27th
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Precipitation outlook
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LONG RANGE DISCUSSION
Key Points: This was written by the BAMwx team. I don’t edit it.
Click to enlarge all of the images below
These graphics are updated Monday through Friday between 8:30 AM and 9:30 AM.
NOTE: These may not be updated on Saturday and Sunday.
Click the image below to enlarge it.
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Summer outlook
Click to enlarge it. Then, you can read it better.
June through August
Temperature departures
Precipitation
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June temperature departures
Click on the images to enlarge them
Precipitation outlook
July temperature departures
Click on the images to enlarge them
July Precipitation
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Great news! The videos are now found in your Weathertalk app and on the WeatherTalk website.
These are bonus videos for subscribers.
The app is for subscribers. Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com/welcome then go to your app store and search for WeatherTalk
Subscribers, PLEASE USE THE APP. ATT and Verizon are not reliable during severe weather. They are delaying text messages.
The app is under WeatherTalk in the app store.
Apple users click here
Android users click here
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Radar Link: Interactive local city-view radars & regional radars.
You will find clickable warning and advisory buttons on the local city-view radars.
If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.
Not working? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.
Storm Prediction Center. Click here.
Weather Prediction Center. Click here.
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Live lightning data: Click here.
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Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.
GOES 16 slider tool. Click here.
College of Dupage satellites. Click here
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Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.
Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.
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