Beau Dodson's WeatherTalk Blog

June 26th, 2020. Beau’s subscriber’s weather blog update. Not a subscriber? Go to www.weathertalk.com/welcome Once subscribed, download the WeatherTalk app in the app store

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Click one of the links below to take you directly to that section.

      1. Your detailed day to day forecast
      2. City-view graphic-casts
      3. Severe weather outlook
      4. Forecast discussion
      5. Future-cast radars
      6. Long-range temp & precip graphics

Do you have any suggestions or comments?  Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com

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7-day forecast for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.

This is a blend for the region.  See the detailed region by region forecast further down in this post.

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Friday through Friday

1.  Is lightning in the forecast?  Yes.   Lightning is possible Friday through next Thursday.  Peak chances may occur Sunday and Monday.  Those with outdoor activities should monitor radars.

2.  Are severe thunderstorms in the forecast?  Isolated.  June thunderstorms can produce down-burst winds.  Although isolated, they can produce wind damage.  That would be the exception and not the rule.

* The NWS officially defines a severe thunderstorm as a storm with 58 mph wind or greater,  1″ hail or larger,  and/or tornadoes

3.  Is flash flooding in the forecast?  Possible.  Slow moving storms could cause flash flooding.

4.  Will there be a chance of a frost or freeze?  No.

5.  Will the heat index exceed 100 degrees?  No.

6.  Will the wet-bulb globe temperature reach caution or danger levels?  Low end Friday into the weekend.

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Friday WBGT (F): 82° Take 15 minute breaks each hour of working or exercising in direct sunlight.
Saturday WBGT (F): 83° Take 15 minute breaks each hour of working or exercising in direct sunlight.
Sunday WBGT (F): 82° Take 15 minute breaks each hour of working or exercising in direct sunlight.
Monday WBGT (F): 81° Take 15 minute breaks each hour of working or exercising in direct sunlight.
Tuesday WBGT (F): 81° Take 15 minute breaks each hour of working or exercising in direct sunlight.
Wednesday WBGT (F): 80° Take 15 minute breaks each hour of working or exercising in direct sunlight.

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The WetBulb Globe Temperature (WBGT) is a measure of the heat stress in direct sunlight, which takes into account: temperature, humidity, wind speed, sun angle and cloud cover (solar radiation).

This differs from the heat index, which takes into consideration temperature and humidity and is calculated for shady areas.

If you work or exercise in direct sunlight, this is a good element to monitor.

Sports coaches, schools, military agencies, OSHA, and many nations use the WBGT as a guide to managing workload in direct sunlight.

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Something wrong on the page?  Suggestions? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
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Plan on thunderstorms in the region over the coming days.  It won’t rain all day.  It won’t rain everywhere.  Where storms occur they will produce heavy downpours.  Typical for June.

June 26, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify?  High confidence
Friday Forecast
:   Partly sunny.  Widely scattered showers and thunderstorms.  More humid.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30%    IL ~ 30%    KY ~  30%    TN ~ 30%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 88° to 92°    SE MO 86° to 92°    South IL  86° to 92°   Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 86° to 90°    West KY 86° to 92°    NW TN 88° to 92°
Wind direction and speed: South at 7 to 14 mph with gusts to 20 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 92° to 96°
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Wet roadways.  Lightning.  Gusty wind near storms.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates and radars.
UV Index: 10. Very high.
Sunrise: 5:36 AM
Sunset: 8:20 PM
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Friday night Forecast:  Partly cloudy.  Widely scattered thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30%    IL ~ 30%    KY ~  30%    TN ~ 30%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 70° to 72°     SE MO  70° to 72°     South IL  68° to 72°     Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 68° to 72°    West KY 70° to 72°     NW TN 70° to 74°
Wind direction and speed:  South and southwest at 6 to 12 mph.  Gustier during the evening.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 68° to 74°
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Isolated wet roadways and lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check updates and radars.
Moonrise: 11:07 AM
Moonset:  12:01 AM
The phase of the moon:  Waxing Crescent

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June 27, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify?  Medium confidence
Saturday Forecast
:   Partly sunny.  Scattered showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 40% to 50%    IL ~ 40% to 50%    KY ~ 60%    TN ~ 60%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 86° to 90°    SE MO 85° to 90°    South IL  85° to 90°   Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 86° to 90°    West KY 86° to 90°    NW TN 86° to 90°
Wind direction and speed: Southwest at 7 to 14 mph with gusts above 20 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 86° to 92°
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Scattered wet roadways.  Lightning.  Gusty wind near storms.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates and radars.
UV Index: 10. Very high.
Sunrise: 5:36 AM
Sunset: 8:20 PM
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Saturday night Forecast:  Partly cloudy.  Scattered showers and thunderstorms.  Heavy rain likely over southern Illinois and portions of northwest Kentucky.  Flash flooding possible.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 50%    IL ~ 60%    KY ~  40%    TN ~40%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 70° to 74°     SE MO  68° to 72°     South IL  68° to 72°     Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 68° to 72°    West KY 68° to 72°     NW TN 68° to 72°
Wind direction and speed:  South at 7 to 14 mph with gusts to 18 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 70° to 74°
Coverage of precipitation:  Scattered
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways and lightning. Flash flooding.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check updates and radars.
Moonrise: 12:16 PM
Moonset:  12:33 AM
The phase of the moon:  Waxing Crescent

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June 28, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify?  Medium confidence
Sunday Forecast
:   Intervals of clouds and sun.  Warm and humid.  Scattered showers and thunderstorms.  Peak chances during the afternoon heat of the day. Heavy rain over southeast Illinois and portions of western Kentucky.  Flash flooding likely.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 40%    IL ~ 60%    KY ~  70%    TN ~ 40%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 86° to 90°    SE MO 86° to 90°    South IL  86° to 90°   Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 86° to 90°    West KY 86° to 90°    NW TN 86° to 90°
Wind direction and speed: South at 7 to 14 mph with higher gusts.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 92° to 96°
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated over southeast Missouri. Scattered over northwest Tennessee.  Scattered to numerous over southern Illinois and western Kentucky.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Wet roadways.  Lightning.  Gusty wind near storms. Flash flooding.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Plan on storms.  I would not cancel plans.  I would monitor updates and radars.
UV Index: 10. Very high.
Sunrise: 5:37 AM
Sunset: 8:20 PM
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Sunday night Forecast:  Partly cloudy.  A chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30%    IL ~ 30%    KY ~  30%    TN ~ 30%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 70° to 74°     SE MO  70° to 74°     South IL  70° to 74°     Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 70° to 74°    West KY 70° to 74°     NW TN 70° to 74°
Wind direction and speed:  South at 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 70° to 75°
Coverage of precipitation:  Scattered
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways and lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check updates and radars.
Moonrise: 1:24 PM
Moonset:  1:04 AM
The phase of the moon:  First Quarter

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June 29, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify?  Medium confidence

Monday Forecast:   Hazy. Hot. Humid.  A widely scattered thunderstorm will be possible.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30%    IL ~ 20%    KY ~  20%    TN ~20%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 90° to 92°    SE MO 86° to 92°    South IL  86° to 92°   Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 86° to 90°    West KY 86° to 92°    NW TN 90° to 92°
Wind direction and speed: South and southwest at 7 to 14 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 95° to 100°
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Wet roadways.  Lightning. Locally heavy rain. Gusty wind near storms.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates and radars.
UV Index: 9. Very high.
Sunrise: 5:37 AM
Sunset: 8:20 PM
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Monday night Forecast:  Intervals of clouds. A 30% chance of thunderstorms before midnight. A 60% chance after midnight.  Flash flooding possible where storms train over the same area.  Warm and humid.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 60%    IL ~ 60%    KY ~  60%    TN ~ 60%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 72° to 75°     SE MO  72° to 75°     South IL  72° to 74°     Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 72° to 74°    West KY 72° to 74°     NW TN 72° to 75°
Wind direction and speed:  South and southwest at 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 70° to 75°
Coverage of precipitation:  Isolated before midnight.  Increasing coverage over southeast Missouri and then eastward after midnight.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.  Lightning.  Locally heavy rain.  Gusty wind near storms.  Slow moving storms can produce flash flooding.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check updates and radars.
Moonrise: 2:33 PM
Moonset:  1:35 AM
The phase of the moon:  Waxing Gibbous

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June 30, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify?  Medium confidence
Tuesday Forecast
:   Mostly cloudy.  A 60% chance of showers and thunderstorms. Some storms will produce locally heavy rain.    If clouds are thicker then high temperatures will be a bit lower.  Warm and humid.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 60%    IL ~ 60%    KY ~  60%    TN ~60%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 86° to 90°    SE MO 86° to 90°    South IL  86° to 90°   Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 86° to 90°    West KY 86° to 90°    NW TN 86° to 90°
Wind direction and speed: South and southwest at 7 to 14 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 92° to 96°
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to numerous
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Wet roadways.  Lightning.  Locally heavy rain.  Flash flooding where slow moving storms occur. Gusty wind near storms.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates and radars.
UV Index: 9. Very high.
Sunrise: 5:38 AM
Sunset: 8:20 PM
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Tuesday night Forecast:  Mostly cloudy.  A chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms.  Warm and humid.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 60%    IL ~ 60%    KY ~  60%    TN ~60%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 70° to 74°     SE MO  70° to 74°     South IL  70° to 74°     Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 70° to 74°    West KY 70° to 74°     NW TN 70° to 74°
Wind direction and speed:  South at 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 70° to 75°
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to perhaps numerous.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.  Lightning.  Locally heavy rain.  Flash flooding where slow moving storms occur. Gusty wind near storms.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check updates and radars.
Moonrise: 3:43 PM
Moonset:  2:07 AM
The phase of the moon:  Waxing Gibbous

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July 1, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify?  Medium confidence
Wednesday Forecast
:  Mostly cloudy. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.  Slow moving storms could cause flash flooding.  If clouds are thicker then high temperatures will be a bit lower.  Warm and humid.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 60%    IL ~ 60%    KY ~  60%    TN ~60%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 86° to 88°    SE MO 86° to 88°    South IL  86° to 88°   Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 84° to 88°    West KY 86° to 88°    NW TN 86° to 88°
Wind direction and speed: South at 7 to 14 mph with gusts to 20 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 86° to 94°
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to numerous
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Wet roadways.  Lightning.  Locally heavy rain.  Flash flooding where slow moving storms occur. Gusty wind near storms.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates and radars.
UV Index: 8 to 9. Very high.
Sunrise: 5:38 AM
Sunset: 8:20 PM
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Wednesday night Forecast:  Partly cloudy.  A chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms.  Warm and humid.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 40%    IL ~ 40%    KY ~  40%   TN ~ 40%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 70° to 74°     SE MO  70° to 74°     South IL  70° to 74°     Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 70° to 74°    West KY 70° to 74°     NW TN 70° to 74°
Wind direction and speed:  South at 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 70° to 75°
Coverage of precipitation:  Scattered
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Wet roadways.  Lightning.  Locally heavy rain.  Flash flooding where slow moving storms occur. Gusty wind near storms.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check updates and radars.
Moonrise: 4:54 PM
Moonset:  2:42 AM
The phase of the moon:  Waxing Gibbous

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July 2, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify?  Medium confidence
Thursday Forecast
:  Partly sunny.  Warm and humid.  Scattered thunderstorms.  Warm and humid.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 40%    IL ~ 40%    KY ~  40%    TN ~40%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 84° to 88°    SE MO 84° to 88°    South IL  84° to 88°   Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 84° to 88°    West KY 84° to 88°    NW TN 84° to 88°
Wind direction and speed: South at 7 to 14 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 86° to 94°
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.  Lightning. Locally heavy rain. Gusty wind near storms.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates and radars.
UV Index: 9 to 10. Very high.
Sunrise: 5:39 AM
Sunset: 8:20 PM
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Thursday night Forecast:  Partly cloudy.  A chance of scattered thunderstorms.  Warm and humid.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30%    IL ~ 30%    KY ~  30%    TN ~ 30%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 70° to 74°     SE MO  70° to 74°     South IL  70° to 74°     Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 70° to 74°    West KY 70° to 74°     NW TN 70° to 74°
Wind direction and speed:  South at 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 70° to 75°
Coverage of precipitation:  Scattered
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways and lightning. Locally heavy rain where thunderstorms occur.  Typical of June storms.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check updates and radars.
Moonrise: 6:04 PM
Moonset:  3:21 AM
The phase of the moon:  Waxing Gibbous

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July 3, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify?  Medium confidence
Friday Forecast
:  Partly sunny.  Warm and humid.  Scattered thunderstorms.  Warm and humid.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 40%    IL ~ 40%    KY ~  40%    TN ~40%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 86° to 88°    SE MO 86° to 88°    South IL  86° to 88°   Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 86° to 88°    West KY 86° to 88°    NW TN 86° to 88°
Wind direction and speed: South at 7 to 14 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 86° to 94°
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.  Lightning. Locally heavy rain. Gusty wind near storms.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates and radars.
UV Index: 9 to 10. Very high.
Sunrise: 5:39 AM
Sunset: 8:20 PM
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Friday night Forecast:  Partly cloudy.  A chance of scattered thunderstorms.  Warm and humid.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30%    IL ~ 30%    KY ~  30%    TN ~ 30%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 70° to 74°     SE MO  70° to 74°     South IL  70° to 74°     Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 70° to 74°    West KY 70° to 74°     NW TN 70° to 74°
Wind direction and speed:  South at 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 70° to 75°
Coverage of precipitation:  Scattered
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways and lightning. Locally heavy rain where thunderstorms occur.  Typical of June storms.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check updates and radars.
Moonrise:  7:11 PM
Moonset:  4:06 AM
The phase of the moon:  Waxing Gibbous

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July 4, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify?  Medium confidence
Saturday Forecast
:  Partly sunny.  Warm and humid.  Isolated thunderstorms.  Warm and humid.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20%    IL ~ 20%    KY ~  20%    TN ~20%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 84° to 88°    SE MO 84° to 88°    South IL  84° to 88°   Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 84° to 88°    West KY 84° to 88°    NW TN 84° to 88°
Wind direction and speed: South at 7 to 14 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 86° to 94°
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.  Lightning. Locally heavy rain. Gusty wind near storms.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates and radars.
UV Index: 9 to 10. Very high.
Sunrise: 5:39 AM
Sunset: 8:20 PM
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Saturday night Forecast:  Partly cloudy.  A chance of isolated thunderstorms.  Warm and humid.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20%    IL ~ 20%    KY ~  20%    TN ~20%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 70° to 74°     SE MO  70° to 74°     South IL  70° to 74°     Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 70° to 74°    West KY 70° to 74°     NW TN 70° to 74°
Wind direction and speed:  South at 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 70° to 75°
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways and lightning. Locally heavy rain where thunderstorms occur.  Typical of June storms.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check updates and radars.
Moonrise: 8:13 PM
Moonset:  4:57 AM
The phase of the moon:  Waxing Gibbous

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July 5, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify?  Medium confidence
Sunday Forecast
:  Partly sunny.  Warm and humid.  Isolated thunderstorms.  Warm and humid.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20%    IL ~ 20%    KY ~  20%    TN ~20%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 84° to 88°    SE MO 84° to 88°    South IL  84° to 88°   Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 84° to 88°    West KY 84° to 88°    NW TN 84° to 88°
Wind direction and speed: South at 7 to 14 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 86° to 94°
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.  Lightning. Locally heavy rain. Gusty wind near storms.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates and radars.
UV Index: 9 to 10. Very high.
Sunrise: 5:40 AM
Sunset: 8:19 PM
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Sunday night Forecast:  Partly cloudy.  A chance of isolated thunderstorms.  Warm and humid.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20%    IL ~ 20%    KY ~  20%    TN ~20%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 70° to 74°     SE MO  70° to 74°     South IL  70° to 74°     Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 70° to 74°    West KY 70° to 74°     NW TN 70° to 74°
Wind direction and speed:  South at 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 70° to 75°
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways and lightning. Locally heavy rain where thunderstorms occur.  Typical of June storms.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check updates and radars.
Moonrise: 9:07 PM
Moonset:  5:54 AM
The phase of the moon:  Full moon

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What is the UV index?

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  1.   Muggy heat will return Friday into early next week.  Highs in the upper 80s and lower 90s.  Dew points in the mid 60s to low 70s (muggy).
  2.   A chance of thunderstorms, some with heavy rain, this weekend.

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Click to enlarge the graphics.

Remember, this is an average across our local area.  The county by county will vary.  See the detailed forecast above for each area.

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Click graphics to enlarge them.

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These are dates that may have precipitation.  Monitor the trends in the forecast.

Anything past day seven is low confidence. 


Graphic-cast

Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.

Illinois

During active weather check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page.

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Kentucky

During active weather check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page.


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Tennessee

During active weather check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page.


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Today through June 30th: At this time, the risk of severe weather appears to be low.  I can’t rule out isolated high wind with thunderstorms Friday into early next week.  Typical for June.

Lightning will be the primary concern Friday into early next week.  Those with outdoor activities should monitor radars.

 

 

Today’s outlook (below).

Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.

Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.

One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.

A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter size hail, and/or a tornado.

The tan states are simply a region that SPC outlined on this particular map.  Just ignore that.

The black outline is our local area.

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Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook.

 

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The images below are from the WPC.  Their totals are a bit lower than our current forecast.  I wanted to show you the comparison.

24-hour precipitation outlook.
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48-hour precipitation outlook.
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72-hour precipitation outlook.
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Weather advice:

Updated June 25, 2020

If you have outdoor activities Friday through early next week then you will want to monitor radars.  Thunderstorms are in the forecast.  Scattered.  The main concern will be brief heavy downpours, lightning, and gusty winds.  I would not cancel my plans.  I would monitor updates/radars.

Peak thunderstorm chances will likely be Sunday into Monday.

Download the Beau Dodson Weather Talk app from the app store.  Search for Weather Talk by the Fire Horn.  Download it.  Install it.  It is for subscribers.  Not a subscriber?  Go to www.weathertalk.com/welcome

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Weather Discussion

    1.  Warm and muggy weather.  June!
    2.  Unsettled weather with several chances of thunderstorms Friday into the weekend.
    3.  Locally heavy rain where slow moving storms develop.

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Air you wear has arrived.  It is going to feel muggy outside.  Louisiana air.  You are going to notice the difference.

As is usually the case, when dew points rise this much so do our thunderstorm chances.

We will have a few thunderstorms today and then increasing coverage over the coming days into next week.

As I have been saying over the past few days, I would not cancel weekend plans.  I would, however, plan on periods of time where you may have to deal with showers and heavy thunderstorms.

Overall, the severe weather risk is low.  Isolated wind damage will be possible (see below).

It is possible that some locations pick up very little in the form of rain.  Others could easily top one inch in just a few minutes.  It is that time of the year.  Summer thunderstorms.

Between now and the end of next week, some locations could pick up more than three inches of rain.

Summer thunderstorms can also produce isolated wind damage from down-burst winds.  Down-burst winds typically occur when thunderstorms are weakening.  They collapse.  When they collapse a surge of wind and rain spreads underneath of them.  Occasionally, these winds can top 50 mph.  Keep that in mind.

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Dew points in the low to mid 60s feels a bit humid (not bad).  Dew points in the upper 60s to middle 70s is more like Louisiana air.  Muggy.

Here are the dew point readings today through Monday.  Notice the 70s returning.  Ack!  Air you wear.

Friday

Saturday

Sunday

Sunday

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PWAT values will also be very high.  PWAT is a measure of moisture in the atmosphere.  PWAT values in the 1.7 to 2.4″ range can produce an inch of rain in fifteen minutes.

Friday

Saturday morning

Saturday night

Sunday

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We also have the Saharan Dust.  These dust storms occur just about every year.  They come off of Africa and spread westward.  This particular dust plume is quite a bit larger than usual.

The dust may reach our region over the coming days into the weekend.  The dust can help produce brilliant sunsets.

There is some discussion about lower visibility and a haze in the air.  We will have to wait and see how much of it holds together.

Yesterday, in Puerto Rico, visibility was reduced to three miles with plenty of dust in the air.  This seems unlikely this far north and west.  It is not out of the question, however, that we see the dust as a haze.

You can actually see the dust on the GOES 16 satellite.

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Link https://col.st/MmvCX

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Again, as a reminder, these are models. They are never 100% accurate. Take the general idea from them.

What should I take from these?

  1. The general idea and not specifics. Models usually do well with the generalities.
  2. The time-stamp is located in the upper left corner.

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What am I looking at? 
You are looking at different models.  Meteorologists use many different models to forecast the weather.  All models are wrong.  Some are more wrong than others.  Meteorologists have to make a forecast based on the guidance/models.

I show you these so you can see what the different models are showing as far as precipitation.  If most of the models agree, then the confidence in the final weather forecast increases.

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This animation is the Hrrr model.

This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region.  It is a future-cast radar.

Green is rain.  Blue is snow.  Pink and red represent sleet and freezing rain.

Time-stamp upper left.  Click the animation to enlarge it.

 

This animation is the SPC WRF model.

This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region.  It is a future-cast radar.

Green is rain.  Blue is snow.  Pink and red represent sleet and freezing rain.

Time-stamp upper left.  Click the animation to enlarge it.

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This animation is the 3K American Model.

This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region.  It is a future-cast radar.

Green is rain.  Blue is snow.  Pink and red represent sleet and freezing rain.

Time-stamp upper left.  Click the animation to enlarge it.

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This next animation is the NAM American Model.

This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region.  It is a future-cast radar.

Green is rain.  Blue is snow.  Pink and red represent sleet and freezing rain.

Time-stamp upper left.  Click the animation to enlarge it.

 

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This next animation is the GFS American Model.

This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region.  It is a future-cast radar.

Green is rain.  Blue is snow.  Pink and red represent sleet and freezing rain.

Time-stamp upper left.  Click the animation to enlarge it.

 


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Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 84 degrees.

Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 73 degrees.

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.00″ to 1.20″

Yellow and orange colors are above average temperatures.  Red is much above average.  Light blue and blue are below-average temperatures.  Green to purple colors represents much below-average temperatures.

This outlook covers June 25th through July 2nd

Click on the image to expand it.

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The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF AVERAGE. Brown is below average. Green is above average. Blue is much above average.

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Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 88 degrees

Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 76 degrees

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.00″ to 1.20″
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This outlook covers  July 3rd through July 9th

Click on the image to expand it.

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The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF AVERAGE. For example, if your average rainfall is 1.00″ and the graphic shows 25%, then that would mean 0.25″ of rain is anticipated.

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THIS IS UPDATED ON TUESDAY AND FRIDAY
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Outlook definitions
EC = Equal chances of above or below average
BN= Below average
M/BN = Much below average
AN = Above average
M/AN = Much above average
E/AN = Extremely above average
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Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 89 degrees
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 69 degrees

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.70″ to 2.20″

This outlook covers July 10th through July 23rd

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Precipitation outlook

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LONG RANGE DISCUSSION

Key Points: This was written by the BAMwx team. I don’t edit it.

Click to enlarge all of the images below

These graphics are updated Monday through Friday between 8:30 AM and 9:30 AM.

NOTE: These may not be updated on Saturday and Sunday.

Click the image below to enlarge it.

This will be updated after 9:30 AM

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Summer outlook

Click to enlarge it.  Then, you can read it better.

June through August

Temperature departures

 

Precipitation

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June temperature departures

Click on the images to enlarge them

Precipitation outlook

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July temperature departures

Click on the images to enlarge them

July Precipitation

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Great news!  The videos are now found in your Weathertalk app and on the WeatherTalk website.

These are bonus videos for subscribers.

The app is for subscribers.  Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com/welcome then go to your app store and search for WeatherTalk

Subscribers, PLEASE USE THE APP. ATT and Verizon are not reliable during severe weather. They are delaying text messages.

The app is under WeatherTalk in the app store.

Apple users click here

Android users click here



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Radar Link: Interactive local city-view radars & regional radars.

You will find clickable warning and advisory buttons on the local city-view radars.

If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.

Not working? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com

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National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.

Storm Prediction Center. Click here.

Weather Prediction Center. Click here.

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Live lightning data: Click here.

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Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.

GOES 16 slider tool. Click here.

College of Dupage satellites. Click here

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Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.

Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.

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Find Beau on Twitter! Share your weather photos! @beaudodson

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You can learn more about those projects by visiting the Shadow Angel Foundation website and the Beau Dodson News website.

 

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