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Do you have any suggestions or comments? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
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7-day forecast for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.
This is a blend for the region. See the detailed region by region forecast further down in this post.
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Monday through Monday
1. Is lightning in the forecast? Yes. Monitor Wednesday through Friday.
2. Are severe thunderstorms in the forecast? Monitor. I am monitoring Wednesday afternoon into Friday.
* The NWS officially defines a severe thunderstorm as a storm with 58 mph wind or greater, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
3. Is flash flooding in the forecast? Not at this time. Monitor in case we have several rounds of thunderstorms.
4. Will there be a chance of a frost or freeze? No.
5. Will the heat index exceed 100 degrees? No.
6. Will the wet-bulb globe temperature reach danger levels? No. WBFT forecast below.
Monday WBGT (F): 74° No issues.
Tuesday WBGT (F): 74° No issues.
Wednesday WBGT (F): 81° No issues.
Thursday WBGT (F): 81° No issues.
Friday WBGT (F): 83° Marginal. If working outside, then take 15-minute breaks each hour.
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The WetBulb Globe Temperature (WBGT) is a measure of the heat stress in direct sunlight, which takes into account: temperature, humidity, wind speed, sun angle and cloud cover (solar radiation).
This differs from the heat index, which takes into consideration temperature and humidity and is calculated for shady areas.
If you work or exercise in direct sunlight, this is a good element to monitor.
Sports coaches, schools, military agencies, OSHA, and many nations use the WBGT as a guide to managing workload in direct sunlight.
Something wrong on the page? Suggestions? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
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June 1, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High confidence
Monday Forecast: Mostly sunny.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 80° to 82° SE MO 76° to 80° South IL 76° to 80° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 76° to 80° West KY 78° to 82° NW TN 78° to 82°
Wind direction and speed: East/southeast at 5 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 76° to 80°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No.
UV Index: 10. Very high.
Sunrise: 5:35 AM
Sunset: 8:11 PM
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Monday night Forecast: Mostly clear. Patchy fog.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 58° to 62° SE MO 58° to 62° South IL 58° to 62° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 58° to 62° West KY 58° to 62° NW TN 58° to 62°
Wind direction and speed: South and southwest at 5 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 58° to 62°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Lower visibility if fog forms.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 3:34 PM
Moonset: 3:02 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous
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June 2, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High confidence
Tuesday Forecast: Mostly sunny. A few passing clouds. Much warmer. More humid.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 86° to 90° SE MO 86° to 90° South IL 85° to 90° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 85° to 90° West KY 85° to 90° NW TN 86° to 90°
Wind direction and speed: South and southwest wind 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 86° to 90°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No.
UV Index: 10. Very high.
Sunrise: 5:35 AM
Sunset: 8:12 PM
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Tuesday night Forecast: Mostly clear. Just a few clouds.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 66° to 68° SE MO 64° to 68° South IL 64° to 68° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 64° to 66° West KY 66° to 68° NW TN 66° to 70°
Wind direction and speed: South and southwest at 4 to 8 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 64° to 70°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Lower visibility if fog forms.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 4:46 PM
Moonset: 3:33 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous
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Rain chances will likely change. Monitor updates. Expect adjustments in the % numbers.
June 3, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Wednesday Forecast: Mostly sunny AM. Partly cloudy during the afternoon. Warmer. More humid. A slight chance of a thunderstorm during the afternoon.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20% IL ~ 10% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 86° to 90° SE MO 86° to 90° South IL 85° to 90° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 85° to 90° West KY 85° to 90° NW TN 86° to 90°
Wind direction and speed: Southwest at 5 to 10 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 86° to 92°
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Isolated wet roadways. Isolated lightning. Some storms could produce gusty wind and hail.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates and radars.
UV Index: 10. Very high.
Sunrise: 5:34 AM
Sunset: 8:13 PM
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Wednesday night Forecast: Partly cloudy. A chance of thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 40% IL ~ 40% KY ~ 30% TN ~ 20%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 68° to 72° SE MO 66° to 72° South IL 68° to 72° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 68° to 72° West KY 68° to 72° NW TN 70° to 72°
Wind direction and speed: Southwest at 5 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 67° to 70°
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Some storms could produce gusty wind and hail.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates and radars.
Moonrise: 7:11 PM
Moonset: 4:45 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous
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June 4, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Thursday Forecast: Partly sunny. Warm. A chance of thunderstorms. Hot.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 50% IL ~ 50% KY ~ 40% TN ~ 30%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 86° to 90° SE MO 86° to 90° South IL 86° to 90° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 86° to 90° West KY 86° to 90° NW TN 88° to 92°
Wind direction and speed: Southwest at 5 to 10 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 88° to 94°
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Some storms could produce gusty wind and hail.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates and radars.
UV Index: 10. Very high.
Sunrise: 5:34 AM
Sunset: 8:13 PM
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Thursday night Forecast: Partly cloudy. A slight chance of thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 20% TN ~ 10%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 68° to 72° SE MO 66° to 72° South IL 68° to 72° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 68° to 72° West KY 68° to 72° NW TN 70° to 72°
Wind direction and speed: Southwest at 5 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 68° to 72°
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Isolated wet roadways. Isolated lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates and radars.
Moonrise: 7:11 PM
Moonset: 4:45 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous
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June 5, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? LOW confidence
Friday Forecast: Partly cloudy. Isolated thunderstorms. Hot.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30% IL ~ 30% KY ~ 20% TN ~ 20%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 86° to 90° SE MO 88° to 90° South IL 88° to 90° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 86° to 90° West KY 88° to 92° NW TN 88° to 92°
Wind direction and speed: Southwest at 5 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 88° to 94°
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? A few wet roadways. Lightning. If thunderstorms develop, then they will produce gusty wind.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars.
UV Index: 10. Very high.
Sunrise: 5:34 AM
Sunset: 8:13 PM
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Friday night Forecast: Partly cloudy. A slight chance of thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 20% TN ~ 20%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 68° to 72° SE MO 66° to 72° South IL 68° to 72° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 68° to 72° West KY 68° to 72° NW TN 70° to 72°
Wind direction and speed: Southwest at 5 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 68° to 72°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 8:22 PM
Moonset: 5:27 AM
The phase of the moon: Full
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June 6, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Saturday Forecast: Partly cloudy. Hot. Isolated thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 10% IL ~ 10% KY ~ 10% TN ~ 10%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 86° to 90° SE MO 88° to 90° South IL 88° to 90° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 86° to 90° West KY 88° to 92° NW TN 88° to 92°
Wind direction and speed: Southwest at 5 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 88° to 94°
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? A few wet roadways. Lightning. If thunderstorms develop, then they will produce gusty wind.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars.
UV Index: 10. Very high.
Sunrise: 5:34 AM
Sunset: 8:14 PM
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Saturday night Forecast: Mostly clear. Warm. Humid.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 20% TN ~ 20%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 68° to 72° SE MO 66° to 72° South IL 68° to 72° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 68° to 72° West KY 68° to 72° NW TN 70° to 72°
Wind direction and speed: East at 5 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 68° to 72°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise:9:28 PM
Moonset: 6:16 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous.
What is the UV index?
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- Heat stress this week is a concern for some life stock
- Monitor thunderstorm chances.
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Click to enlarge the graphics.
Remember, this is an average across our local area. The county by county will vary. See the detailed forecast above for each area.
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Click graphics to enlarge them.
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These are dates that may have precipitation. Monitor the trends in the forecast.
Anything past day seven is low confidence.
Graphic-cast
Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
Illinois
During active weather check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page.
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Kentucky
During active weather check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page.
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Tennessee
During active weather check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page.
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Today through June 7th. I am watching Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday. If storms occur, they could be intense. The storm track is still questionable.
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Today’s outlook (below).
Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.
Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.
One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.
A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter size hail, and/or a tornado.
The tan states are simply a region that SPC outlined on this particular map. Just ignore that.
The black outline is our local area.
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Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook.
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The images below are from the WPC. Their totals are a bit lower than our current forecast. I wanted to show you the comparison.
24-hour precipitation outlook.
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48-hour precipitation outlook.
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72-hour precipitation outlook.
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Weather advice:
Updated June 1, 2020
Monitor heat index values this week.
Monitor the chance of intense thunderstorms coming in from the northwest.
Download the Beau Dodson Weather Talk app from the app store. Search for Weather Talk by the Fire Horn. Download it. Install it. It is for subscribers. Not a subscriber? Go to www.weathertalk.com/welcome
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Weather Discussion
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- A heatwave is on the way. I will use the word hot this week.
- Monitoring storm chances this week. Some could be intense (if they occur).
A brief update. I will post additional information Monday morning/afternoon.
The main concern will be heat. Our first extended period of heat arrives this week. Beginning Tuesday and continuing into the weekend.
Heat index values will rise into the 90s. Use care, as always.
The big weather question this week will be MCS’s. Where will they occur.
These are large thunderstorm complexes. Mesoscale Convection Systems.
Click the graphic to enlarge it.
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I am currently monitoring Wednesday into the weekend.
IF thunderstorms do occur they could be severe. Thus, monitor updates moving forward.
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Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
Again, as a reminder, these are models. They are never 100% accurate. Take the general idea from them.
What should I take from these?
- The general idea and not specifics. Models usually do well with the generalities.
- The time-stamp is located in the upper left corner.
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What am I looking at?
You are looking at different models. Meteorologists use many different models to forecast the weather. All models are wrong. Some are more wrong than others. Meteorologists have to make a forecast based on the guidance/models.
I show you these so you can see what the different models are showing as far as precipitation. If most of the models agree, then the confidence in the final weather forecast increases.
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This animation is the Hrrr model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Green is rain. Blue is snow. Pink and red represent sleet and freezing rain.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
No precip in this time range.
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This animation is the 3K American Model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Green is rain. Blue is snow. Pink and red represent sleet and freezing rain.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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This next animation is the NAM American Model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Green is rain. Blue is snow. Pink and red represent sleet and freezing rain.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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This next animation is the GFS American Model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Green is rain. Blue is snow. Pink and red represent sleet and freezing rain.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it..
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This next animation is the EC Model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Green is rain. Blue is snow. Pink and red represent sleet and freezing rain.
This is in Zulu time. 12z = 7 AM. 18z = 1 PM. 00z = 7 PM.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
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Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 82 degrees.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 61 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.00″ to 1.20″
Yellow and orange colors are above average temperatures. Red is much above average. Light blue and blue are below-average temperatures. Green to purple colors represents much below-average temperatures.
This outlook covers June 1st through June 7th
Click on the image to expand it.
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The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF AVERAGE. Brown is below average. Green is above average. Blue is much above average.
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Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 62 degrees
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.00″ to 1.20″
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This outlook covers June 8th through June 14th
Click on the image to expand it.
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The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF AVERAGE. For example, if your average rainfall is 1.00″ and the graphic shows 25%, then that would mean 0.25″ of rain is anticipated.
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EC = Equal chances of above or below average
BN= Below average
M/BN = Much below average
AN = Above average
M/AN = Much above average
E/AN = Extremely above average
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 66 degrees
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 2.00″ to 2.20″
This outlook covers June 12th through June 25th
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Precipitation outlook
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LONG RANGE DISCUSSION
Key Points: This was written by the BAMwx team. I don’t edit it.
Click to enlarge all of the images below
These graphics are updated Monday through Friday between 8:30 AM and 9:30 AM.
NOTE: These may not be updated on Saturday and Sunday.
Click the image below to enlarge it.
Summer outlook
Click to enlarge it. Then, you can read it better.
June through August
Temperature departures
Precipitation
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June temperature departures
Click on the images to enlarge them
Precipitation outlook
July temperature departures
Click on the images to enlarge them
July Precipitation
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Radar Link: Interactive local city-view radars & regional radars.
You will find clickable warning and advisory buttons on the local city-view radars.
If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.
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National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.
Storm Prediction Center. Click here.
Weather Prediction Center. Click here.
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Live lightning data: Click here.
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Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.
GOES 16 slider tool. Click here.
College of Dupage satellites. Click here
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Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.
Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.
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