Beau Dodson's WeatherTalk Blog

June 2nd, 2020. Beau’s subscriber’s weather blog update. Not a subscriber? Go to www.weathertalk.com/welcome Once subscribed, download the WeatherTalk app in the app store

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Click one of the links below to take you directly to that section.

    1. Your detailed day to day forecast
    2. City-view graphic-casts
    3. Severe weather outlook
    4. Forecast discussion
    5. Future-cast radars
    6. Long-range temp & precip graphics

Do you have any suggestions or comments?  Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com

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7-day forecast for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.

This is a blend for the region.  See the detailed region by region forecast further down in this post.

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Wednesday through Wednesday

1.  Is lightning in the forecast?  Yes. Wednesday into Friday.  Peak chances will arrive Thursday.

2.  Are severe thunderstorms in the forecast?  Monitor.   I am monitoring Wednesday afternoon into Thursday night.

* The NWS officially defines a severe thunderstorm as a storm with 58 mph wind or greater,  1″ hail or larger,  and/or tornadoes

3.  Is flash flooding in the forecast?  Not at this time.  Monitor in case we have several rounds of thunderstorms.

4.  Will there be a chance of a frost or freeze?  No.

5.  Will the heat index exceed 100 degrees?  Monitor.  It may be close Friday into the weekend.  90s are certain.

6.  Will the wet-bulb globe temperature reach danger levels? No.  It will reach marginal levels.

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Wednesday WBGT (F): 80°  Marginal.  If working outside, then take 15-minute breaks each hour.
Thursday WBGT (F): 80° Marginal.  If working outside, then take 15-minute breaks each hour.
Friday WBGT (F): 83°  Marginal.  If working outside, then take 15-minute breaks each hour.
Saturday WBGT (F): 84°  Marginal.  If working outside, then take 15-minute breaks each hour.
Sunday WBGT (F): 84° Marginal.  If working outside, then take 15-minute breaks each hour.
Monday WBGT (F): 80° Marginal.  If working outside, then take 15-minute breaks each hour.

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The WetBulb Globe Temperature (WBGT) is a measure of the heat stress in direct sunlight, which takes into account: temperature, humidity, wind speed, sun angle and cloud cover (solar radiation).

This differs from the heat index, which takes into consideration temperature and humidity and is calculated for shady areas.

If you work or exercise in direct sunlight, this is a good element to monitor.

Sports coaches, schools, military agencies, OSHA, and many nations use the WBGT as a guide to managing workload in direct sunlight.

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Something wrong on the page?  Suggestions? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
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June 2, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify?  High confidence
Tuesday Forecast
:  Mostly sunny.  A few passing clouds.  Much warmer.  More humid.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0%    IL ~ 0%    KY ~ 0%    TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 86° to 90°    SE MO 85° to 90°    South IL  85° to 90°   Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 85° to 90°    West KY 85° to 90°    NW TN 86° to 90°
Wind direction and speed:  South and southwest wind 5 to 10 mph with gusts to 15 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 86° to 90°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No.
UV Index: 10. Very high.
Sunrise: 5:35 AM
Sunset: 8:12 PM
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Tuesday night Forecast: Mostly clear.  Just a few clouds.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0%    IL ~ 0%    KY ~  0%    TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 66° to 68°    SE MO  64° to 68°    South IL  64° to 68°    Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 64° to 66°    West KY 66° to 68°    NW TN 66° to 70°
Wind direction and speed: South and southwest at 4 to 8 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 64° to 70°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 4:46 PM
Moonset:  3:33 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous

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Rain chances will likely change.  Monitor updates.  Expect adjustments in the % numbers.

June 3, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify?  Medium confidence

Wednesday Forecast:  Mostly sunny AM.  Partly cloudy during the afternoon.  Warmer.  More humid.  Thunderstorms developing from the north and moving south.  Some could be intense.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 40%    IL ~ 40%    KY ~ 40%    TN ~ 30%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 86° to 90°    SE MO 86° to 90°    South IL  85° to 90°   Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 85° to 90°    West KY 85° to 90°    NW TN 86° to 90°
Wind direction and speed:  Southwest at 8 to 16 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 90° to 95°
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.  Lightning.  Some storms could produce gusty wind and hail.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates and radars.
UV Index: 10. Very high.
Sunrise: 5:34 AM
Sunset: 8:13 PM
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Wednesday night Forecast: Partly cloudy.  A chance of thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 40%    IL ~ 40%    KY ~ 30%    TN ~ 20%

Temperature range: MO Bootheel 68° to 72°    SE MO  66° to 72°    South IL  68° to 72°    Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 68° to 72°    West KY 68° to 72°    NW TN 70° to 72°
Wind direction and speed:  Southwest at 7 to 14 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 68° to 74°
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.  Lightning.  Some storms could produce gusty wind and hail.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates and radars.
Moonrise: 7:11 PM
Moonset:  4:45 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous

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June 4, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify?   Medium confidence
Thursday Forecast
:  Partly sunny. Warm.  A chance of thunderstorms.  Hot and muggy.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 50%    IL ~ 50%    KY ~ 40%    TN ~ 30%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 86° to 90°    SE MO 86° to 90°    South IL  86° to 90°   Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 86° to 90°    West KY 86° to 90°    NW TN 88° to 92°
Wind direction and speed:  Southwest at 5 to 10 mph with gusts to 15 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 88° to 94°
Coverage of precipitation:  Widely scattered
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.  Lightning.  Some storms could produce gusty wind and hail.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates and radars.
UV Index: 10. Very high.
Sunrise: 5:34 AM
Sunset: 8:13 PM
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Thursday night Forecast: Partly cloudy.  A chance of a few thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20%    IL ~ 20%    KY ~  20%    TN ~ 10%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 68° to 72°    SE MO  66° to 72°    South IL  68° to 72°    Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 68° to 72°    West KY 68° to 72°    NW TN 70° to 72°
Wind direction and speed:  Southwest at 5 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 68° to 72°
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Isolated wet roadways.  Isolated lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates and radars.
Moonrise: 7:11 PM
Moonset:  4:45 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous

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June 5, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify?   LOW confidence
Friday Forecast
:  Partly cloudy.  Scattered thunderstorms.  Hot.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30%    IL ~ 30%    KY ~  20%    TN ~ 20%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 86° to 90°    SE MO 88° to 90°    South IL  88° to 90°   Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 86° to 90°    West KY 88° to 92°    NW TN 88° to 92°
Wind direction and speed:  Southwest at 5 mph to 10 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 94° to 98°
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  A few wet roadways.  Lightning.  If thunderstorms develop, then they will produce gusty wind.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars.
UV Index: 10. Very high.
Sunrise: 5:34 AM
Sunset: 8:13 PM
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Friday night Forecast: Partly cloudy.  A slight chance of thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20%    IL ~ 20%    KY ~  20%    TN ~ 20%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 68° to 72°    SE MO  66° to 72°    South IL  68° to 72°    Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 68° to 72°    West KY 68° to 72°    NW TN 70° to 72°
Wind direction and speed: Southwest at 5 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 68° to 72°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 8:22 PM
Moonset:  5:27 AM
The phase of the moon: Full

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June 6, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify?  Medium confidence
Saturday Forecast
:  Partly cloudy. Hot.  Most likely dry.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 10%    IL ~ 10%    KY ~  10%    TN ~ 10%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 86° to 90°    SE MO 88° to 90°    South IL  88° to 90°   Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 86° to 90°    West KY 88° to 92°    NW TN 88° to 92°
Wind direction and speed:  Southwest at 5 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 88° to 94°
Coverage of precipitation: None to isolated.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Mostly dry.  Perhaps, a few wet roadways.  Lightning.  If thunderstorms develop, then they will produce gusty wind.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars.
UV Index: 10. Very high.
Sunrise: 5:34 AM
Sunset: 8:14 PM
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Saturday night Forecast: Mostly clear.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0%    IL ~ 0%    KY ~  0%    TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 66° to 68°    SE MO  64° to 68°    South IL  64° to 68°    Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 64° to 68°    West KY 64° to 68°    NW TN 68° to 70°
Wind direction and speed:  East at 5 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 65° to 70°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise:9:28 PM
Moonset:  6:16 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous.

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June 7, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify?  Medium confidence
Sunday Forecast
:  Mostly sunny.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0%    IL ~ 0%    KY ~  0%    TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 86° to 90°    SE MO 88° to 92°    South IL  88° to 92°   Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 86° to 92°    West KY 88° to 92°    NW TN 88° to 92°
Wind direction and speed:  East at 4 to 8 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 88° to 94°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 10. Very high.
Sunrise: 5:34 AM
Sunset: 8:14 PM
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Sunday night Forecast: Mostly clear.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0%    IL ~ 0%    KY ~  0%    TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 66° to 68°    SE MO  64° to 68°    South IL  64° to 68°    Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 64° to 68°    West KY 64° to 68°    NW TN 68° to 70°
Wind direction and speed:  East at 5 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 65° to 70°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 10:27 PM
Moonset:  7:10 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous.

What is the UV index?

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  1.   Heat stress for some livestock into next week.  It will be quite warm and muggy.
  2.   Monitor thunderstorm chances.

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Click to enlarge the graphics.

Remember, this is an average across our local area.  The county by county will vary.  See the detailed forecast above for each area.

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Click graphics to enlarge them.

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These are dates that may have precipitation.  Monitor the trends in the forecast.

Anything past day seven is low confidence. 


Graphic-cast

Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.

Illinois

During active weather check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page.

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Kentucky

During active weather check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page.

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Tennessee

During active weather check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page.



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Today through June 7th.  Thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon into Thursday night could produce high wind, heavy rain, and small hail.  The severe weather risk is not zero.

It is possible that some locations miss out on thunderstorms.  There remain questions about coverage.

Monitor your Beau Dodson Weather app.   Make sure you are logged in.

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Today’s outlook (below).

Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.

Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.

One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.

A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter size hail, and/or a tornado.

The tan states are simply a region that SPC outlined on this particular map.  Just ignore that.

The black outline is our local area.

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Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook.

 

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The images below are from the WPC.  Their totals are a bit lower than our current forecast.  I wanted to show you the comparison.

24-hour precipitation outlook.
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48-hour precipitation outlook.
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72-hour precipitation outlook.
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Weather advice:

Updated June 1, 2020

Monitor heat index values this week.

Monitor the chance of intense thunderstorms coming in from the northwest.

Download the Beau Dodson Weather Talk app from the app store.  Search for Weather Talk by the Fire Horn.  Download it.  Install it.  It is for subscribers.  Not a subscriber?  Go to www.weathertalk.com/welcome

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Weather Discussion

    1.   Heat is on.
    2.   Higher dew-points.
    3.   Thunderstorm chances.

Two big weather stories over the coming days.  The heat and the chance of intense thunderstorms.

Temperatures today will be warmer than yesterday.  Some thermometers will hit the 90-degree mark today.  Now, that the heat is here, it will last a while.  Into next week, actually.

Dew points will rise into the 60s and eventually 70s.  This is air you wear.  Muggy.  You walk outside and before you get to the car, you are sweating.  I call it ugg weather.

Dew point forecast map.


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Maybe some like it!  I don’t know.

With all of this heat, will come some energy.  CAPE.  CAPE is basically energy for thunderstorms to tap into.

Two ingredients in CAPE are heat and dew points.

Here is the CAPE animation on Friday.  Plenty of energy in the Missouri and Ohio Valleys.  If thunderstorms form, then they will tap into this energy.

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Thunderstorms that do form will produce locally torrential downpours, strong and gusty wind, and perhaps hail.  There is a chance of some severe thunderstorm warnings.  The tornado risk is fairly low.  The tornado risk is rarely zero when you have severe thunderstorms around.  It is not a major concern.

Storms will approach from the west and north.  Moving south and east.  Typical, for the Month of June.

There are definitely some questions remaining about thunderstorm coverage.

This is a situation where you should monitor updated forecasts and radars.

Peak thunderstorm chances will arrive Wednesday night into Thursday night.  Lower chances Wednesday afternoon and Friday.

For now, it appears thunderstorm chances diminish Friday night into Sunday.

In addition to the above, I am monitoring the Gulf of Mexico for a tropical storm.  The track of that will be key to where a path of heavy rain occurs.

You can clearly see the path on the EC model.  The GFS is further south and east.

Here is the EC animation.  Tropical systems are extremely difficult to forecast in the long-range.  Thus, there will likely be adjustments.  Perhaps dramatic adjustments.

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Here is the National Hurricane Center track forecast.

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Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.

Again, as a reminder, these are models. They are never 100% accurate. Take the general idea from them.

What should I take from these?

  1. The general idea and not specifics. Models usually do well with the generalities.
  2. The time-stamp is located in the upper left corner.

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What am I looking at? 
You are looking at different models.  Meteorologists use many different models to forecast the weather.  All models are wrong.  Some are more wrong than others.  Meteorologists have to make a forecast based on the guidance/models.

I show you these so you can see what the different models are showing as far as precipitation.  If most of the models agree, then the confidence in the final weather forecast increases.

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This animation is the Hrrr model.

This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region.  It is a future-cast radar.

Green is rain.  Blue is snow.  Pink and red represent sleet and freezing rain.

Time-stamp upper left.  Click the animation to enlarge it.

No precip in this time range..

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This animation is the 3K American Model.

This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region.  It is a future-cast radar.

Green is rain.  Blue is snow.  Pink and red represent sleet and freezing rain.

Time-stamp upper left.  Click the animation to enlarge it.

Once again, this week, models will not handle this weather-setup all that great.  They will struggle with placement and coverage of preciptiation.
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This next animation is the NAM American Model.

This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region.  It is a future-cast radar.

Green is rain.  Blue is snow.  Pink and red represent sleet and freezing rain.

Time-stamp upper left.  Click the animation to enlarge it.

Once again, this week, models will not handle this weather-setup all that great.  They will struggle with placement and coverage of preciptiation.

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This next animation is the GFS American Model.

This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region.  It is a future-cast radar.

Green is rain.  Blue is snow.  Pink and red represent sleet and freezing rain.

Time-stamp upper left.  Click the animation to enlarge it..

Once again, this week, models will not handle this weather-setup all that great.  They will struggle with placement and coverage of preciptiation.

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This next animation is the EC Model.

This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region.  It is a future-cast radar.

Green is rain.  Blue is snow.  Pink and red represent sleet and freezing rain.

This is in Zulu time.  12z = 7 AM.  18z = 1 PM.  00z = 7 PM.

Time-stamp upper left.  Click the animation to enlarge it.

Once again, this week, models will not handle this weather-setup all that great.  They will struggle with placement and coverage of preciptiation.

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Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.

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Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 82 degrees.

Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 61 degrees.

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.00″ to 1.20″

Yellow and orange colors are above average temperatures.  Red is much above average.  Light blue and blue are below-average temperatures.  Green to purple colors represents much below-average temperatures.

This outlook covers June 2nd through June 8th

Click on the image to expand it.

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The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF AVERAGE. Brown is below average. Green is above average. Blue is much above average.

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Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 84 degrees

Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 62 degrees

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.00″ to 1.20″
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This outlook covers  June 9th through June 15th

Click on the image to expand it.

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The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF AVERAGE. For example, if your average rainfall is 1.00″ and the graphic shows 25%, then that would mean 0.25″ of rain is anticipated.

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THIS IS UPDATED ON TUESDAY AND FRIDAY
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Outlook definitions
EC = Equal chances of above or below average
BN= Below average
M/BN = Much below average
AN = Above average
M/AN = Much above average
E/AN = Extremely above average
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Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 87 degrees
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 66 degrees

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 2.00″ to 2.20″

This outlook covers June 16th through June 29th

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Precipitation outlook

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LONG RANGE DISCUSSION

Key Points: This was written by the BAMwx team. I don’t edit it.

Click to enlarge all of the images below

These graphics are updated Monday through Friday between 8:30 AM and 9:30 AM.

NOTE: These may not be updated on Saturday and Sunday.

Click the image below to enlarge it.

 

Summer outlook

Click to enlarge it.  Then, you can read it better.

June through August

Temperature departures

 

Precipitation

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June temperature departures

Click on the images to enlarge them

Precipitation outlook

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July temperature departures

Click on the images to enlarge them

July Precipitation

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Great news!  The videos are now found in your Weathertalk app and on the WeatherTalk website.

These are bonus videos for subscribers.

The app is for subscribers.  Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com/welcome then go to your app store and search for WeatherTalk

Subscribers, PLEASE USE THE APP. ATT and Verizon are not reliable during severe weather. They are delaying text messages.

The app is under WeatherTalk in the app store.

Apple users click here

Android users click here



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Radar Link: Interactive local city-view radars & regional radars.

You will find clickable warning and advisory buttons on the local city-view radars.

If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.

Not working? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com

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National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.

Storm Prediction Center. Click here.

Weather Prediction Center. Click here.

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Live lightning data: Click here.

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Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.

GOES 16 slider tool. Click here.

College of Dupage satellites. Click here

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Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.

Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.

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2016-11-19_11-50-24

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