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Click one of the links below to take you directly to that section.
Do you have any suggestions or comments? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
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7-day forecast for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.
This is a blend for the region. See the detailed region by region forecast further down in this post.
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Friday through Friday
1. Is lightning in the forecast? Yes. A chance of thunderstorms Saturday afternoon into Wednesday. Peak chances will likely be late Sunday afternoon into Monday night.
2. Are severe thunderstorms in the forecast? Small chance. There is a small chance that a couple of thunderstorms, Saturday into Monday, could produce strong wind gusts.
* The NWS officially defines a severe thunderstorm as a storm with 58 mph wind or greater, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
3. Is flash flooding in the forecast? Isolated. A low-end chance. Slow moving storms could briefly flood commonly flooded roadways.
4. Will there be a chance of a frost or freeze? No.
5. Will the heat index exceed 100 degrees? No.
6. Will the wet-bulb globe temperature reach caution or danger levels? Yes. Friday and Saturday. Readings will reach 80 to 82 degrees.
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Friday WBGT (F): 83° Take 15 minute breaks each hour if working or exercising in direct sunlight.
Saturday WBGT (F): 81° Take 15 minute breaks each hour if working or exercising in direct sunlight.
Sunday WBGT (F): 79° No concerns
Monday WBGT (F): 78° No concerns
Tuesday WBGT (F): 79° No concerns
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The WetBulb Globe Temperature (WBGT) is a measure of the heat stress in direct sunlight, which takes into account: temperature, humidity, wind speed, sun angle and cloud cover (solar radiation).
This differs from the heat index, which takes into consideration temperature and humidity and is calculated for shady areas.
If you work or exercise in direct sunlight, this is a good element to monitor.
Sports coaches, schools, military agencies, OSHA, and many nations use the WBGT as a guide to managing workload in direct sunlight.
Something wrong on the page? Suggestions? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
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June 19, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Friday Forecast: Partly sunny. Hot. Most likely dry across my forecast counties.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 5% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 88° to 92° SE MO 88° to 92° South IL 88° to 92° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 88° to 92° West KY 88° to 92° NW TN 88° to 92°
Wind direction and speed: Southwest to 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 86° to 92°
Coverage of precipitation: None.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 11. Very high.
Sunrise: 5:34 AM
Sunset: 8:19 PM
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Friday night Forecast: Partly cloudy. A small chance of late night thunderstorms over the northern portion of southeast Missouri.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 66° to 68° SE MO 63° to 66° South IL 63° to 66° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 63° to 66° West KY 63° to 66° NW TN 66° to 68°
Wind direction and speed: South at 4 to 8 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 63° to 68°
Coverage of precipitation: None to isolated.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None for most. A slight chance of wet roadways and lightning over the northern portions of southeast Missouri.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 4:21 AM
Moonset: 7:00 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent.
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June 20, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Saturday Forecast: Partly sunny. Quite warm. A few thunderstorms will be possible. Mainly during the afternoon. Mainly over southeast Missouri and southwest Illinois. See graphs further down in this blog update.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30% IL ~ 30% KY ~ 20% TN ~ 20%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 90° to 94° SE MO 90° to 94° South IL 90° to 94° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 90° to 94° West KY 90° to 94° NW TN 90° to 94°
Wind direction and speed: Southwest to 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 90° to 95°
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated to widely scattered
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Gusty wind near storms.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates and check radars.
UV Index: 11. Very high.
Sunrise: 5:34 AM
Sunset: 8:19 PM
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Saturday night Forecast: Partly cloudy. Scattered thunderstorms. Warmer.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 40% IL ~ 40% KY ~ 30% TN ~ 30%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 68° to 72° SE MO 68° to 70° South IL 68° to 70° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 68° to 70° West KY 68° to 70° NW TN 68° to 72°
Wind direction and speed: Southwest at 7 to 14 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 68° to 72°
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Gusty wind near storms.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates and check radars.
Moonrise: 5:01 AM
Moonset: 8:00 PM
The phase of the moon: New
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June 21, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Sunday Forecast: Partly sunny. Quite warm. Scattered thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 50% to 60% IL ~ 50% to 60% KY ~ 40% to 50% TN ~ 40% to 50%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 86° to 90° SE MO 86° to 90° South IL 86° to 90° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 86° to 90° West KY 86° to 90° NW TN 86° to 90°
Wind direction and speed: Southwest to 6 to 12 mph with gusts above 15 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 86° to 90°
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to perhaps numerous, at times.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Gusty wind near storms.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates and check radars.
UV Index: 11. Very high.
Sunrise: 5:34 AM
Sunset: 8:20 PM
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Sunday night Forecast: Partly cloudy. Scattered thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 50% to 60% IL ~ 50% to 60% KY ~ 40% to 50% TN ~ 40% to 50%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 68° to 72° SE MO 68° to 70° South IL 68° to 70° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 68° to 70° West KY 68° to 70° NW TN 68° to 72°
Wind direction and speed: Southwest at 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 68° to 72°
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to numerous
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Gusty wind near storms.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates and check radars.
Moonrise: 5:48 AM
Moonset: 8:59 PM
The phase of the moon: New
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June 22, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Monday Forecast: Partly sunny. Warm. Scattered thunderstorms will again be possible.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 60% IL ~ 60% KY ~ 60% TN ~ 60%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 86° to 90° SE MO 86° to 92° South IL 86° to 92° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 86° to 92° West KY 86° to 92° NW TN 86° to 90°
Wind direction and speed: Southwest to 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 86° to 90°
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to numerous
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Gusty wind near storms.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates and check radars.
UV Index: 11. Very high.
Sunrise: 5:35 AM
Sunset: 8:20 PM
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Monday night Forecast: Partly cloudy. Scattered thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 60% IL ~ 60% KY ~ 60% TN ~ 60%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 68° to 72° SE MO 68° to 70° South IL 68° to 70° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 68° to 70° West KY 68° to 70° NW TN 68° to 72°
Wind direction and speed: Southwest at 7 to 14 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 68° to 72°
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to numerous.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Gusty wind near storms.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates and check radars.
Moonrise: 6:43 AM
Moonset: 9:54 PM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent
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June 23, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Tuesday Forecast: Partly sunny. Warm. Scattered thunderstorms will again be possible.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 60% IL ~ 60% KY ~ 60% TN ~ 60%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 83° to 86° SE MO 82° to 85° South IL 82° to 85° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 83° to 86° West KY 83° to 86° NW TN 83° to 86°
Wind direction and speed: Southwest to 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 82° to 86°
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to numerous
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Gusty wind near storms.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates and check radars.
UV Index: 9. Very high.
Sunrise: 5:35 AM
Sunset: 8:20 PM
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Tuesday night Forecast: Partly cloudy. Scattered thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30% IL ~ 40% KY ~ 40% TN ~40%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 63° to 66° SE MO 63° to 66° South IL 63° to 66° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 63° to 66° West KY 63° to 66° NW TN 63° to 66°
Wind direction and speed: Southwest at 7 to 14 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 63° to 66°
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Gusty wind near storms.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates and check radars.
Moonrise: 7:44 AM
Moonset: 10:41 PM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent
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June 24, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Wednesday Forecast: Partly sunny. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 20% TN ~20%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 83° to 86° SE MO 82° to 85° South IL 82° to 85° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 83° to 86° West KY 83° to 86° NW TN 83° to 86°
Wind direction and speed: Northwest to 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 84° to 88°
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Gusty wind near storms.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 10. Very high.
Sunrise: 5:35 AM
Sunset: 8:20 PM
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Wednesday night Forecast: Partly cloudy.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 10% IL ~ 10% KY ~ 10% TN ~10%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 63° to 66° SE MO 62° to 65° South IL 62° to 65° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 62° to 65° West KY 63° to 66° NW TN 64° to 68°
Wind direction and speed: West at 7 to 14 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 63° to 66°
Coverage of precipitation: None to isolated.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? A small chance of wet roadways and lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 8:50 AM
Moonset: 11:22 PM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent
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June 25, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Thursday Forecast: Partly sunny.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 84° to 86° SE MO 84° to 86° South IL 84° to 86° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 84° to 86° West KY 84° to 86° NW TN 84° to 86°
Wind direction and speed: West to 4 to 8 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 84° to 88°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 10. Very high.
Sunrise: 5:36 AM
Sunset: 8:20 PM
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Thursday night Forecast: Mostly clear.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 63° to 66° SE MO 62° to 65° South IL 62° to 65° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 62° to 65° West KY 63° to 66° NW TN 64° to 68°
Wind direction and speed: West at 7 to 14 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 63° to 66°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 9:58 AM
Moonset: 12:01 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent
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June 26, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Friday Forecast: Partly sunny. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30% IL ~ 30% KY ~ 30% TN ~30%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 84° to 86° SE MO 84° to 86° South IL 84° to 86° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 84° to 86° West KY 84° to 86° NW TN 84° to 86°
Wind direction and speed: South at 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 84° to 88°
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates and radars.
UV Index: 10. Very high.
Sunrise: 5:36 AM
Sunset: 8:20 PM
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Friday night Forecast: Partly cloudy. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30% IL ~ 30% KY ~ 30% TN ~30%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 63° to 66° SE MO 62° to 65° South IL 62° to 65° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 62° to 65° West KY 63° to 66° NW TN 64° to 68°
Wind direction and speed: South at 4 to 8 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 63° to 66°
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways and lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check updates and radars.
Moonrise: 11:07 AM
Moonset: 12:01 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent
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What is the UV index?
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- Heat will be the primary concern over the next couple of days. Highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s today through Saturday. Dew points won’t be all that high. That means it won’t feel horribly muggy.
- Monitoring shower/storm chances this coming weekend.
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Click to enlarge the graphics.
Remember, this is an average across our local area. The county by county will vary. See the detailed forecast above for each area.
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Click graphics to enlarge them.
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These are dates that may have precipitation. Monitor the trends in the forecast.
Anything past day seven is low confidence.
Graphic-cast
Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
Illinois
During active weather check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page.
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Kentucky
During active weather check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page.
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Tennessee
During active weather check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page.
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Today through June 24th: A small risk of damaging wind with thunderstorms Saturday into Monday. The overall weather set-up does not favor severe thunderstorms. There could be just enough instability, mainly during the heat of the day, for a report or two of strong/gusty wind.
The main concern over the coming days will be lightning. Campers, boaters, and others should use care.
Today’s outlook (below).
Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.
Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.
One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.
A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter size hail, and/or a tornado.
The tan states are simply a region that SPC outlined on this particular map. Just ignore that.
The black outline is our local area.
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Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook.
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The images below are from the WPC. Their totals are a bit lower than our current forecast. I wanted to show you the comparison.
24-hour precipitation outlook.
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48-hour precipitation outlook.
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72-hour precipitation outlook.
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Weather advice:
Updated June 19, 2020
Those with weekend activities will want to keep one eye on the weather radars. Mainly Saturday afternoon onward. Lightning will be the primary concern. A few storms could produce gusty wind.
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Weather Discussion
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- Warm temperatures.
- Shower and thunderstorm chances this coming weekend into early next week.
A fairly quiet weather pattern continues across the area. That is about to change.
We did have showers and thunderstorms over the Pennyrile area of western Kentucky Thursday afternoon and night. Those were in the forecast and accompanied a large upper-level low that is situated on the East Coast of the United States.
That system has pulled a bit further to the east. That means we should remain dry through tonight.
Our far far eastern counties will have a 10% chance or less of a shower/thunderstorm today.
A series of upper-level disturbances will push across the region Saturday into early next week. Each one of these disturbances will help produce scattered showers and thunderstorms.
There will likely be some time-periods where numerous showers and thunderstorms will dot the weather radars.
For now, I have the highest chance of showers and thunderstorms Sunday afternoon into Tuesday. That means a 50% chance or above.
Here is the 48-hour outlook for rain probabilities.
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Shower and thunderstorm chances will continue until at least Tuesday night. I still have low-end chances Wednesday, as well. I will have to monitor Wednesday’s forecast. If the system pulls away faster then rain chances will come to an end.
It will be a tricky forecast as far as rain totals. It is that time of the year when your neighbor can pick up a quick inch of rain, while you receive barely a tenth of an inch.
Generally, between now and next Wednesday, most areas should receive 0.25″ to 0.50″. There will absolutely be some areas that receive more than an inch of rain. Thunderstorms can always enhance rain totals.
Some of the thunderstorms will be slow movers, as well. That will also factor into rain totals. There is a low-end chance of some commonly flooded roadways having brief issues with water run-off.
Wind fields will be fairly weak over the coming days. Thus, severe weather is not a major concern. I can’t rule out a couple of thunderstorms producing down-burst winds. If that occurs then isolated wind damage will be a possibility. Overall, the severe weather risk at any given location is tiny.
Today and Saturday will be the warmest days. Highs in the upper 80s and lower 90s. Clouds and precipitation will help keep temperatures lower Sunday into Wednesday. Expect mainly middle 80s.
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Again, as a reminder, these are models. They are never 100% accurate. Take the general idea from them.
What should I take from these?
- The general idea and not specifics. Models usually do well with the generalities.
- The time-stamp is located in the upper left corner.
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What am I looking at?
You are looking at different models. Meteorologists use many different models to forecast the weather. All models are wrong. Some are more wrong than others. Meteorologists have to make a forecast based on the guidance/models.
I show you these so you can see what the different models are showing as far as precipitation. If most of the models agree, then the confidence in the final weather forecast increases.
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This animation is the Hrrr model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Green is rain. Blue is snow. Pink and red represent sleet and freezing rain.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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This animation is the 3K American Model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Green is rain. Blue is snow. Pink and red represent sleet and freezing rain.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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This next animation is the NAM American Model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Green is rain. Blue is snow. Pink and red represent sleet and freezing rain.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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This next animation is the GFS American Model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Green is rain. Blue is snow. Pink and red represent sleet and freezing rain.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
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Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 84 degrees.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 73 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.00″ to 1.20″
Yellow and orange colors are above average temperatures. Red is much above average. Light blue and blue are below-average temperatures. Green to purple colors represents much below-average temperatures.
This outlook covers June 19th through June 25th
Click on the image to expand it.
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The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF AVERAGE. Brown is below average. Green is above average. Blue is much above average.
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Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 76 degrees
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.00″ to 1.20″
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This outlook covers June 26th through July 2nd
Click on the image to expand it.
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The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF AVERAGE. For example, if your average rainfall is 1.00″ and the graphic shows 25%, then that would mean 0.25″ of rain is anticipated.
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EC = Equal chances of above or below average
BN= Below average
M/BN = Much below average
AN = Above average
M/AN = Much above average
E/AN = Extremely above average
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 69 degrees
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.70″ to 2.20″
This outlook covers July 3rd through July 18th
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Precipitation outlook
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LONG RANGE DISCUSSION
Key Points: This was written by the BAMwx team. I don’t edit it.
Click to enlarge all of the images below
These graphics are updated Monday through Friday between 8:30 AM and 9:30 AM.
NOTE: These may not be updated on Saturday and Sunday.
Click the image below to enlarge it.
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Summer outlook
Click to enlarge it. Then, you can read it better.
June through August
Temperature departures
Precipitation
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June temperature departures
Click on the images to enlarge them
Precipitation outlook
July temperature departures
Click on the images to enlarge them
July Precipitation
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Live lightning data: Click here.
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Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.
GOES 16 slider tool. Click here.
College of Dupage satellites. Click here
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Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.
Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.
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