Beau Dodson's WeatherTalk Blog

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1. 1. Your detailed day to day forecast
   2. City-view graphic-casts
   3. Severe weather outlook
   4. Forecast discussion
   5. Future-cast radars
   6. Long-range temp & precip graphics

Do you have any suggestions or comments?  Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com

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7-day forecast for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.

This is a blend for the region.  See the detailed region by region forecast further down in this post.

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June 22, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify?  High confidence
Monday Forecast:   Partly sunny.  Warm.  Scattered thunderstorms will again be possible.  Some storms could be intense.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 60%    IL ~ 60%    KY ~ 60%    TN ~ 60%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 80° to 85°    SE MO 82° to 85°    South IL  86° to 90°   Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 86° to 90°    West KY 85° to 90°    NW TN 86° to 90°
Wind direction and speed: South and southwest to 6 to 12 mph with higher gusts.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 86° to 90°
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to numerous
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.  Lightning.  Gusty wind near storms.  Small hail.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates and check radars.
UV Index: 11. Very high.
Sunrise: 5:35 AM
Sunset: 8:20 PM
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Monday night Forecast:  Partly cloudy.  Scattered thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 60%    IL ~ 60%    KY ~ 60%    TN ~ 60%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 68° to 72°     SE MO  68° to 70°     South IL  68° to 70°     Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 68° to 70°    West KY 68° to 70°     NW TN 68° to 72°
Wind direction and speed:  Southwest at 7 to 14 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 68° to 72°
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to numerous.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.  Lightning.  Gusty wind near storms.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates and check radars.
Moonrise: 6:43 AM
Moonset:  9:54 PM
The phase of the moon:  Waxing Crescent

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June 23, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify?  High confidence
Tuesday Forecast:   Partly sunny.  Warm.  A chance of a shower or thunderstorm.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20%    IL ~ 30%    KY ~ 30%    TN ~ 20%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 82° to 85°    SE MO 82° to 85°    South IL  82° to 85°   Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 83° to 86°    West KY 83° to 86°    NW TN 83° to 86°
Wind direction and speed: Southwest to 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 82° to 86°
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated to widely scattered
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  A few wet roadways.  Lightning.  Gusty wind near storms.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates and check radars.
UV Index: 9. Very high.
Sunrise: 5:35 AM
Sunset: 8:20 PM
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Tuesday night Forecast:  Partly cloudy.  Patchy fog near waterways.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0%    IL ~ 0%    KY ~  0%    TN ~0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 60° to 64°     SE MO  58° to 64°     South IL  60° to 64°     Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 60° to 64°    West KY 60° to 64°     NW TN 62° to 64°
Wind direction and speed: Northwest at 4 to 8 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 58° to 64°
Coverage of precipitation:  Most likely none.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Most likely none.  Monitor fog near waterways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 7:44 AM
Moonset:  10:41 PM
The phase of the moon:  Waxing Crescent

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June 24, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify?  Medium confidence
Wednesday Forecast:   Partly sunny.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0%    IL ~ 0%    KY ~  0%    TN ~0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 82° to 85°    SE MO 80° to 85°    South IL  80° to 85°   Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 80° to 85°    West KY 82° to 84°    NW TN 82° to 84°
Wind direction and speed: Northwest to 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 80° to 85°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 10. Very high.
Sunrise: 5:35 AM
Sunset: 8:20 PM
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Wednesday night Forecast:  Partly cloudy.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 10%    IL ~ 10%    KY ~  10%    TN ~10%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 60° to 64°     SE MO  58° to 62°     South IL  60° to 65°     Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 60° to 65°    West KY 60° to 65°     NW TN 62° to 64°
Wind direction and speed:  Light west and northwest wind.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 63° to 66°
Coverage of precipitation:  None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 8:50 AM
Moonset:  11:22 PM
The phase of the moon:  Waxing Crescent

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June 25, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify?  Medium confidence
Thursday Forecast:   Partly sunny. Isolated thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20%    IL ~ 20%    KY ~  20%    TN ~20%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 84° to 86°    SE MO 84° to 86°    South IL  84° to 86°   Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 84° to 86°    West KY 84° to 86°    NW TN 84° to 86°
Wind direction and speed: Southwest at 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 84° to 88°
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  A few wet roadways.  Lightning.  Gusty wind near storms.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars.
UV Index: 10. Very high.
Sunrise: 5:36 AM
Sunset: 8:20 PM
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Thursday night Forecast:  Partly cloudy.  I can’t rule out an isolated thunderstorm.  Chances should be low.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 10%    IL ~ 10%    KY ~  10%    TN  10%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 68° to 70°     SE MO  65° to 70°     South IL  65° to 70°     Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 65° to 70°    West KY 65° to 70°     NW TN 65° to 70°
Wind direction and speed:  South at 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 66° to 70°
Coverage of precipitation:  None to isolated
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? An isolated wet roadways.  Isolated lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 9:58 AM
Moonset:  12:01 AM
The phase of the moon:  Waxing Crescent

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June 26, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify?  Medium confidence
Friday Forecast:   Partly sunny.  A chance of showers and thunderstorms.  More humid.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30%    IL ~ 30%    KY ~  30%    TN ~30%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 86° to 90°    SE MO 86° to 90°    South IL  86° to 90°   Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 86° to 90°    West KY 86° to 90°    NW TN 86° to 90°
Wind direction and speed: South at 5 to 10 mph with gusts to 20 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 92° to 96°
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Wet roadways.  Lightning.  Gusty wind near storms.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates and radars.
UV Index: 10. Very high.
Sunrise: 5:36 AM
Sunset: 8:20 PM
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Friday night Forecast:  Partly cloudy.  An isolated thunderstorm.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20%    IL ~ 20%    KY ~  20%    TN ~20%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 68° to 72°     SE MO  68° to 70°     South IL  68° to 70°     Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 68° to 70°    West KY 68° to 70°     NW TN 68° to 72°
Wind direction and speed:  South at 4 to 8 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 68° to 74°
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Isolated wet roadways and lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check updates and radars.
Moonrise: 11:07 AM
Moonset:  12:01 AM
The phase of the moon:  Waxing Crescent

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June 27, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify?  Medium confidence
Saturday Forecast:   Partly sunny.  A chance of widely scattered showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30%    IL ~ 30%    KY ~  30%    TN ~30%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 84° to 88°    SE MO 84° to 88°    South IL  84° to 86°   Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 84° to 86°    West KY 84° to 86°    NW TN 84° to 86°
Wind direction and speed: Southwest at 7 to 14 mph with gusts above 20 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 86° to 92°
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Scattered wet roadways.  Lightning.  Gusty wind near storms.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates and radars.
UV Index: 10. Very high.
Sunrise: 5:36 AM
Sunset: 8:20 PM
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Saturday night Forecast:  Partly cloudy. A chance of widely scattered showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30%    IL ~ 30%    KY ~  30%    TN ~30%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 70° to 74°     SE MO  68° to 72°     South IL  68° to 72°     Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 68° to 72°    West KY 68° to 72°     NW TN 68° to 72°
Wind direction and speed:  South at 4 to 8 mph with gusts to 15 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 70° to 74°
Coverage of precipitation:  Widely scattered
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways and lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check updates and radars.
Moonrise: 12:16 PM
Moonset:  12:33 AM
The phase of the moon:  Waxing Crescent

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June 28, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify?  Medium confidence
Sunday Forecast:   Partly sunny.  A chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30%    IL ~ 30%    KY ~  30%    TN ~30%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 86° to 90°    SE MO 86° to 90°    South IL  86° to 90°   Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 86° to 90°    West KY 86° to 90°    NW TN 86° to 90°
Wind direction and speed: South at 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 92° to 96°
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Wet roadways.  Lightning.  Gusty wind near storms.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates and radars.
UV Index: 10. Very high.
Sunrise: 5:37 AM
Sunset: 8:20 PM
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Sunday night Forecast:  Partly cloudy. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30%    IL ~ 30%    KY ~  30%    TN ~30%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 68° to 70°     SE MO  68° to 70°     South IL  68° to 70°     Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 68° to 70°    West KY 66° to 70°     NW TN 66° to 70°
Wind direction and speed:  South at 4 to 8 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 63° to 66°
Coverage of precipitation:  Scattered
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways and lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check updates and radars.
Moonrise: 1:24 PM
Moonset:  1:04 AM
The phase of the moon:  First Quarter

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What is the UV index?

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1.   Heat will be the primary concern over the next couple of days.  Highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s today through Saturday.  Dew points won’t be all that high.  That means it won’t feel horribly muggy.
2.   Monitoring shower/storm chances this coming weekend.

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Click to enlarge the graphics.

Remember, this is an average across our local area.  The county by county will vary.  See the detailed forecast above for each area.

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Click graphics to enlarge them.

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These are dates that may have precipitation.  Monitor the trends in the forecast.

Anything past day seven is low confidence. 

Graphic-cast

Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.

Illinois

During active weather check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page.

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Kentucky

During active weather check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page.

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Tennessee

During active weather check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page.

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Today through June 27th: There is a chance that a few thunderstorm will produce damaging wind this afternoon and tonight.  The main concern will be damaging wind gusts, frequent lightning, heavy downpours, and nickel size hail.

Non-severe storms are possible Tuesday, Thursday, Friday, Saturday, and Sunday.

Today’s outlook (below).

Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.

Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.

One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.

A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter size hail, and/or a tornado.

The tan states are simply a region that SPC outlined on this particular map.  Just ignore that.

The black outline is our local area.

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Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook.

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The images below are from the WPC.  Their totals are a bit lower than our current forecast.  I wanted to show you the comparison.

24-hour precipitation outlook.
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48-hour precipitation outlook.
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72-hour precipitation outlook.
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Weather advice:

Updated June 19, 2020

Those with weekend activities will want to keep one eye on the weather radars.  Mainly Saturday afternoon onward.  Lightning will be the primary concern.  A few storms could produce gusty wind.

Download the Beau Dodson Weather Talk app from the app store.  Search for Weather Talk by the Fire Horn.  Download it.  Install it.  It is for subscribers.  Not a subscriber?  Go to www.weathertalk.com/welcome

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Weather Discussion

1. 1.  Warm temperatures.
   2.  Unsettled weather with several chances of thunderstorms.
   3.  Locally heavy rain where slow moving storms develop.

Good day, everyone.

I hope you had a nice weekend.  We did have some showers and thunderstorms.  Thankfully, there was not any severe weather.

We have a typical June weather pattern developing.  Warm days.  Humid from time to time.  Scattered showers and thunderstorms.

We have a stronger disturbance moving through the region this afternoon and tonight.  This disturbance will help pop some showers and locally intense thunderstorms.

There may be a couple of severe thunderstorms today.  The main concern will be wind damage.  Overall, the risk of severe weather at any given location is small.

There is some spin in the atmosphere.  The Storm Prediction Center added a low-end tornado risk.  Let’s keep an eye on this afternoon and tonight.  I will send out app messages if necessary.

Peak shower and thunderstorm chances will occur this afternoon and tonight.

A lower chance of thunderstorms Tuesday.  Wednesday into Wednesday night is currently shaping up to be dry.

We then enter a period of warm and humid weather Thursday into the weekend.  There will be daily chances of scattered showers and thunderstorms.  Where storms occur there will be locally heavy rain, gusty wind, and pea size hail.  Typical for the Month of June.

Here is the SPC WRF model.  You can see how storms come out of Arkansas later today and then move in from the northwest tonight.  A few of these storms could be severe.

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This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region.  It is a future-cast radar.

Green is rain.  Blue is snow.  Pink and red represent sleet and freezing rain.

Time-stamp upper left.  Click the animation to enlarge it.

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This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region.  It is a future-cast radar.

Green is rain.  Blue is snow.  Pink and red represent sleet and freezing rain.

Time-stamp upper left.  Click the animation to enlarge it.

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Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.

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Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 84 degrees.

Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 73 degrees.

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.00″ to 1.20″

Yellow and orange colors are above average temperatures.  Red is much above average.  Light blue and blue are below-average temperatures.  Green to purple colors represents much below-average temperatures.

This outlook covers June 22nd through June 29th

Click on the image to expand it.

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The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF AVERAGE. Brown is below average. Green is above average. Blue is much above average.

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Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 87 degrees

Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 76 degrees

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.00″ to 1.20″
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This outlook covers  June 29th through July 5th

Click on the image to expand it.

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The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF AVERAGE. For example, if your average rainfall is 1.00″ and the graphic shows 25%, then that would mean 0.25″ of rain is anticipated.

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THIS IS UPDATED ON TUESDAY AND FRIDAY

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Outlook definitions
EC = Equal chances of above or below average
BN= Below average
M/BN = Much below average
AN = Above average
M/AN = Much above average
E/AN = Extremely above average

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Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 89 degrees
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 69 degrees

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.70″ to 2.20″

This outlook covers July 3rd through July 18th

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Precipitation outlook

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LONG RANGE DISCUSSION

Key Points: This was written by the BAMwx team. I don’t edit it.

Click to enlarge all of the images below

These graphics are updated Monday through Friday between 8:30 AM and 9:30 AM.

NOTE: These may not be updated on Saturday and Sunday.

Click the image below to enlarge it.

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Summer outlook

Click to enlarge it.  Then, you can read it better.

June through August

Temperature departures

 

Precipitation

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June temperature departures

Click on the images to enlarge them

Precipitation outlook

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July temperature departures

Click on the images to enlarge them

July Precipitation

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Great news!  The videos are now found in your Weathertalk app and on the WeatherTalk website.

These are bonus videos for subscribers.

The app is for subscribers.  Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com/welcome then go to your app store and search for WeatherTalk

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Radar Link: Interactive local city-view radars & regional radars.

You will find clickable warning and advisory buttons on the local city-view radars.

If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.

Not working? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com

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National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.

Storm Prediction Center. Click here.

Weather Prediction Center. Click here.

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Live lightning data: Click here.

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Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.

GOES 16 slider tool. Click here.

College of Dupage satellites. Click here

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Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.

Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.

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