Beau Dodson's WeatherTalk Blog

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1. 1. Your detailed day to day forecast
   2. City-view graphic-casts
   3. Severe weather outlook
   4. Forecast discussion
   5. Future-cast radars
   6. Long-range temp & precip graphics

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7-day forecast for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.

This is a blend for the region.  See the detailed region by region forecast further down in this post.

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June 18, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify?  High confidence
Thursday Forecast:  Becoming partly cloudy.  A chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms over the Pennyrile of western Kentucky.  Our eastern counties.  Lower chances over southeast Illinois and the rest of western Kentucky. Quite warm.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0%    IL ~ 10%    KY ~  20%    TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 86° to 90°    SE MO 85° to 88°    South IL  84° to 88°   Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 84° to 88°    West KY 84° to 88°    NW TN 85° to 88°
Wind direction and speed: Southeast at 4 to 8 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 84° to 88°
Coverage of precipitation:  None for most.  Scattered over western Kentucky (mainly the Pennyrile area).
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  None for most.  Scattered wet roadways and lightning over our eastern counties.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars.
UV Index: 11. Very high.
Sunrise: 5:34 AM
Sunset: 8:19 PM
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Thursday night Forecast: Partly cloudy.  A slight chance of an evening thunderstorm over the Pennyrile area of western Kentucky.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0%    IL ~ 0%    KY ~  10%    TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 64° to 66°     SE MO  64° to 68°     South IL  64° to 68°     Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 64° to 68°    West KY 64° to 68°     NW TN 64° to 68°
Wind direction and speed:  South at 4 to 8 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 65° to 70°
Coverage of precipitation:  None for most.  Isolated over our eastern counties.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None for most.  A small chance of wet roadways and lightning near Owensboro south to Hopkinsville.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 3:47 AM
Moonset:  5:59 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent.

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June 19, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify?  Medium confidence
Friday Forecast:  Partly sunny.  Hot.  Most likely dry across my forecast counties.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 10%    IL ~ 10%    KY ~ 0%    TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 88° to 92°    SE MO 88° to 92°    South IL  88° to 92°   Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 88° to 92°    West KY 88° to 92°    NW TN 88° to 92°
Wind direction and speed: Southwest to 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 86° to 92°
Coverage of precipitation:  None.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 11. Very high.
Sunrise: 5:34 AM
Sunset: 8:19 PM
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Friday night Forecast:  Partly cloudy.  Widely scattered thunderstorms over the northern portion of southeast Missouri and northern portion of southern Illinois.  See the graphics further down in the blog.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20%    IL ~ 20%    KY ~  0%    TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 68° to 72°     SE MO  68° to 70°     South IL  68° to 70°     Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 68° to 70°    West KY 68° to 70°     NW TN 68° to 72°
Wind direction and speed:  South at 4 to 8 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 66° to 70°
Coverage of precipitation:   Widely scattered over our northern counties.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None for most.  Wet roadways and lightning for our northern counties.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 4:21 AM
Moonset:  7:00 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent.

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June 20, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify?  Medium confidence
Saturday Forecast:   Partly sunny.  Quite warm.  An isolated thunderstorm.  Mainly during the afternoon.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30%    IL ~ 30%    KY ~ 20%    TN ~ 20%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 90° to 94°    SE MO 90° to 94°    South IL  90° to 94°   Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 90° to 94°    West KY 90° to 94°    NW TN 90° to 94°
Wind direction and speed: Southwest to 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 90° to 95°
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.  Lightning.  Gusty wind near storms.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates and check radars.
UV Index: 11. Very high.
Sunrise: 5:34 AM
Sunset: 8:19 PM
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Saturday night Forecast:  Partly cloudy.  Scattered thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 40%    IL ~ 30%    KY ~  30%    TN ~ 30%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 68° to 72°     SE MO  68° to 70°     South IL  68° to 70°     Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 68° to 70°    West KY 68° to 70°     NW TN 68° to 72°
Wind direction and speed:  Southwest at 7 to 14 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 68° to 72°
Coverage of precipitation:  Widely scattered
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.  Lightning.  Gusty wind near storms.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates and check radars.
Moonrise: 5:01 AM
Moonset:  8:00 PM
The phase of the moon: New

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June 21, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify?  Medium confidence
Sunday Forecast:   Partly sunny.  Quite warm. Scattered thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 40% to 50%    IL ~ 40% to 50%    KY ~ 40%    TN ~ 40%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 86° to 90°    SE MO 86° to 90°    South IL  86° to 90°   Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 86° to 90°    West KY 86° to 90°    NW TN 86° to 90°
Wind direction and speed: Southwest to 6 to 12 mph with gusts above 15 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 86° to 90°
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.  Lightning.  Gusty wind near storms.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates and check radars.
UV Index: 11. Very high.
Sunrise: 5:34 AM
Sunset: 8:20 PM
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Sunday night Forecast:  Partly cloudy.  Scattered thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 40%    IL ~ 40%    KY ~  40%    TN ~ 40%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 68° to 72°     SE MO  68° to 70°     South IL  68° to 70°     Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 68° to 70°    West KY 68° to 70°     NW TN 68° to 72°
Wind direction and speed:  Southwest at 7 to 14 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 68° to 72°
Coverage of precipitation:  Scattered
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.  Lightning.  Gusty wind near storms.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates and check radars.
Moonrise: 5:48 AM
Moonset:  8:59 PM
The phase of the moon:  New

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June 22, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify?  Medium confidence
Monday Forecast:   Partly sunny.  Warm.  Scattered thunderstorms will again be possible.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 40%    IL ~ 40%    KY ~ 40%    TN ~ 40%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 86° to 90°    SE MO 86° to 92°    South IL  86° to 92°   Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 86° to 92°    West KY 86° to 92°    NW TN 86° to 90°
Wind direction and speed: Southwest to 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 86° to 90°
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.  Lightning.  Gusty wind near storms.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates and check radars.
UV Index: 11. Very high.
Sunrise: 5:35 AM
Sunset: 8:20 PM
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Monday night Forecast:  Partly cloudy.  Scattered thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30%    IL ~ 30%    KY ~  30%    TN ~30%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 68° to 72°     SE MO  68° to 70°     South IL  68° to 70°     Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 68° to 70°    West KY 68° to 70°     NW TN 68° to 72°
Wind direction and speed:  Southwest at 7 to 14 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 68° to 72°
Coverage of precipitation:  Widely scattered
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.  Lightning.  Gusty wind near storms.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates and check radars.
Moonrise: 6:43 AM
Moonset:  9:54 PM
The phase of the moon:  Waxing Crescent

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June 23, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify?  Medium confidence
Tuesday Forecast:   Partly sunny.  Warm.  Scattered thunderstorms will again be possible.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 40%    IL ~ 40%    KY ~ 40%    TN ~ 40%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 84° to 88°    SE MO 84° to 88°    South IL  84° to 88°   Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 84° to 88°    West KY 84° to 88°    NW TN 84° to 88°
Wind direction and speed: Southwest to 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 84° to 88°
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.  Lightning.  Gusty wind near storms.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates and check radars.
UV Index: 10. Very high.
Sunrise: 5:35 AM
Sunset: 8:20 PM
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Tuesday night Forecast:  Partly cloudy.  Scattered thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30%    IL ~ 30%    KY ~  30%    TN ~30%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 68° to 72°     SE MO  68° to 70°     South IL  68° to 70°     Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 68° to 70°    West KY 68° to 70°     NW TN 68° to 72°
Wind direction and speed:  Southwest at 7 to 14 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 68° to 72°
Coverage of precipitation:  Widely scattered
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Wet roadways.  Lightning.  Gusty wind near storms.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates and check radars.
Moonrise: 7:44 AM
Moonset:  10:41 PM
The phase of the moon:  Waxing Crescent

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June 24, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify?  Medium confidence
Wednesday Forecast:   Partly sunny.  A chance of a shower or thunderstorm.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20%    IL ~ 20%    KY ~  20%    TN ~20%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 84° to 88°    SE MO 84° to 88°    South IL  84° to 88°   Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 84° to 88°    West KY 84° to 88°    NW TN 84° to 88°
Wind direction and speed: West to 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 85° to 90°
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.  Lightning.  Gusty wind near storms.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 10. Very high.
Sunrise: 5:35 AM
Sunset: 8:20 PM
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Wednesday night Forecast:  Partly cloudy.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0%    IL ~ 0%    KY ~  0%    TN ~0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 63° to 66°     SE MO  63° to 66°     South IL  63° to 66°     Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 63° to 66°    West KY 63° to 66°     NW TN 64° to 68°
Wind direction and speed:  West at 7 to 14 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 63° to 66°
Coverage of precipitation:  None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 8:50 AM
Moonset:  11:22 PM
The phase of the moon:  Waxing Crescent

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What is the UV index?

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1.   Heat returns later this week.  We may top 90 degrees Thursday through Saturday.  Lower to middle 90s Saturday.  Saturday will be the warmest day.
2.   Monitoring shower/storm chances this coming weekend.

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Click to enlarge the graphics.

Remember, this is an average across our local area.  The county by county will vary.  See the detailed forecast above for each area.

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Click graphics to enlarge them.

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These are dates that may have precipitation.  Monitor the trends in the forecast.

Anything past day seven is low confidence. 

Graphic-cast

Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.

Illinois

During active weather check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page.

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Kentucky

During active weather check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page.

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Tennessee

During active weather check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page.

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Today through June 23rd:  Severe weather is not in the current forecast. Isolated thunderstorms are possible Thursday afternoon across the Pennyrile area of western Kentucky.

Scattered storms are possible this weekend into early next week.  The main concern will be lightning.

Today’s outlook (below).

Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.

Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.

One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.

A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter size hail, and/or a tornado.

The tan states are simply a region that SPC outlined on this particular map.  Just ignore that.

The black outline is our local area.

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Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook.

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The images below are from the WPC.  Their totals are a bit lower than our current forecast.  I wanted to show you the comparison.

24-hour precipitation outlook.
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48-hour precipitation outlook.
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72-hour precipitation outlook.
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Weather advice:

Updated June 17, 2020

No major concerns today through Friday.  I am watching an increasing chance of thunderstorms over the upcoming weekend.

Download the Beau Dodson Weather Talk app from the app store.  Search for Weather Talk by the Fire Horn.  Download it.  Install it.  It is for subscribers.  Not a subscriber?  Go to www.weathertalk.com/welcome

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Weather Discussion

1. 1.  Warmer weather
   2.  Low-end rain chances Thursday over portions of western Kentucky
   3.  Shower and thunderstorm chances this coming weekend into early next week.

Good day, everyone.

I hope you have been able to enjoy this nice weather.  We have another couple of decent days ahead of us.  A warming trend, as well.

A large upper-level low continues to spin across the East Coast of the United States.  It will slowly shift a bit westward today.  That means some increase in clouds from east to west today and tonight.

You can see that large upper-level low on the visible satellite.  Check out the swirl of clouds on the East Coast of the United States.  That is the low.  Slowly spinning.  It is cut-off from the jet stream and that is why it is moving slowly.

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There is just enough moisture to include a chance of showers and thunderstorms over portions of western Kentucky.  Mainly my eastern counties.  The Pennyrile area of western Kentucky.

As you move further west, the chance of rain diminishes.  No severe weather.

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The upper-level low will move eastward tonight and Friday.  That will end that chance of showers and thunderstorms in our area.

We will experience warmer temperatures today through at least Saturday.  Saturday will deliver peak high temperatures.  You can expect at least lower 90s.  A few spots could hit the middle 90s.

Dew points won’t be extreme.  Thus, it won’t be too muggy outside.

Another upper-level low will push southward out of Canada Friday night into next week.  A series of disturbances will accompany this system.

We are going to have a chance of showers and thunderstorms Friday afternoon into Friday night over my far northwestern counties.  That would include Perry County, Missouri, and then northwest from there.  That will include mainly Randolph County, Illinois and then north and west from there.

Friday morning into Friday afternoon.

Areas to the south of that area will likely remain dry.

Then, Friday night we will have some low-end chances, as well.

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Shower and thunderstorm chances will then spread across the area Saturday afternoon into at least Tuesday of next week.  I would not cancel any outdoor plans.  I would monitor updated forecasts and radars.

The tricky part of this forecast will be timing the greatest chance/coverage of showers and thunderstorms.

For now, I have the peak chances Sunday afternoon and Sunday night and then Monday.

Monday night through Wednesday will likely still have at least scattered showers and thunderstorms.

This does not appear to be a severe weather setup.  Wind fields will remain light.  Instability will be lower-end.  Slow moving storms could produce locally heavy rain.  Where that occurs, there could be some brief water issues in areas that typically flood during heavy downpours.

Clouds will help keep temperatures a bit cooler Sunday into Wednesday.  You can expect highs in the 80s.

Rain totals will vary GREATLY.  Areas that experience a slow moving thunderstorm could pick up a quick 1/2 to 1″.  Neighboring counties could end up with nothing.  It is that time of the time.

Generally, the region should experience 0.25″ to 0.50″ through Wednesday.  Again, heavier totals will occur.

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This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region.  It is a future-cast radar.

Green is rain.  Blue is snow.  Pink and red represent sleet and freezing rain.

Time-stamp upper left.  Click the animation to enlarge it.

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This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region.  It is a future-cast radar.

Green is rain.  Blue is snow.  Pink and red represent sleet and freezing rain.

Time-stamp upper left.  Click the animation to enlarge it.

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Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 84 degrees.

Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 73 degrees.

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.00″ to 1.20″

Yellow and orange colors are above average temperatures.  Red is much above average.  Light blue and blue are below-average temperatures.  Green to purple colors represents much below-average temperatures.

This outlook covers June 18th through June 24th

Click on the image to expand it.

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The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF AVERAGE. Brown is below average. Green is above average. Blue is much above average.

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Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 87 degrees

Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 76 degrees

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.00″ to 1.20″
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This outlook covers  June 25th through July 1st

Click on the image to expand it.

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The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF AVERAGE. For example, if your average rainfall is 1.00″ and the graphic shows 25%, then that would mean 0.25″ of rain is anticipated.

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THIS IS UPDATED ON TUESDAY AND FRIDAY

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Outlook definitions
EC = Equal chances of above or below average
BN= Below average
M/BN = Much below average
AN = Above average
M/AN = Much above average
E/AN = Extremely above average

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Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 89 degrees
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 69 degrees

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.70″ to 2.20″

This outlook covers June 30th through July 13th

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Precipitation outlook

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LONG RANGE DISCUSSION

Key Points: This was written by the BAMwx team. I don’t edit it.

Click to enlarge all of the images below

These graphics are updated Monday through Friday between 8:30 AM and 9:30 AM.

NOTE: These may not be updated on Saturday and Sunday.

Click the image below to enlarge it.

This will be updated Friday.  No update today.  I am traveling.

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Summer outlook

Click to enlarge it.  Then, you can read it better.

June through August

Temperature departures

 

Precipitation

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June temperature departures

Click on the images to enlarge them

Precipitation outlook

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July temperature departures

Click on the images to enlarge them

July Precipitation

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Great news!  The videos are now found in your Weathertalk app and on the WeatherTalk website.

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The app is for subscribers.  Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com/welcome then go to your app store and search for WeatherTalk

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Radar Link: Interactive local city-view radars & regional radars.

You will find clickable warning and advisory buttons on the local city-view radars.

If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.

Not working? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com

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National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.

Storm Prediction Center. Click here.

Weather Prediction Center. Click here.

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Live lightning data: Click here.

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Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.

GOES 16 slider tool. Click here.

College of Dupage satellites. Click here

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Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.

Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.

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