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Click one of the links below to take you directly to that section.
Do you have any suggestions or comments? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
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7-day forecast for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.
This is a blend for the region. See the detailed region by region forecast further down in this post.
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Tuesday to Tuesday
1. Is lightning in the forecast? Yes. Isolated lightning Thursday across the Pennyrile area of western Kentucky. A chance of thunderstorms Saturday afternoon into Tuesday. Peak chances will likely be Sunday afternoon into Monday morning.
2. Are severe thunderstorms in the forecast? Not at this time.
* The NWS officially defines a severe thunderstorm as a storm with 58 mph wind or greater, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
3. Is flash flooding in the forecast? No.
4. Will there be a chance of a frost or freeze? No.
5. Will the heat index exceed 100 degrees? No.
6. Will the wet-bulb globe temperature reach danger levels? Yes. Friday and Saturday. Readings will reach 80 to 82 degrees.
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Wednesday WBGT (F): N/A° No concerns.
Thursday WBGT (F): 77° No concerns.
Friday WBGT (F): 83° Take 15 minute breaks each hour if working or exercising in direct sunlight.
Saturday WBGT (F): 81° Take 15 minute breaks each hour if working or exercising in direct sunlight.
Sunday WBGT (F): 79° No concerns
Monday WBGT (F): 78° No concerns
Tuesday WBGT (F): 79° No concerns
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The WetBulb Globe Temperature (WBGT) is a measure of the heat stress in direct sunlight, which takes into account: temperature, humidity, wind speed, sun angle and cloud cover (solar radiation).
This differs from the heat index, which takes into consideration temperature and humidity and is calculated for shady areas.
If you work or exercise in direct sunlight, this is a good element to monitor.
Sports coaches, schools, military agencies, OSHA, and many nations use the WBGT as a guide to managing workload in direct sunlight.
Something wrong on the page? Suggestions? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
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June 17, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High confidence
Wednesday Forecast: Mostly sunny. Warmer. More humid. A few clouds will push east to west across western Kentucky and southern Illinois this afternoon.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 84° to 88° SE MO 83° to 86° South IL 83° to 86° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 83° to 86° West KY 83° to 85° NW TN 83° to 86°
Wind direction and speed: East and northeast at 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 84° to 88°
Coverage of precipitation: None.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 10. Very high.
Sunrise: 5:34 AM
Sunset: 8:19 PM
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Wednesday night Forecast: A few clouds.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 60° to 64° SE MO 60° to 62° South IL 60° to 62° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 60° to 62° West KY 62° to 64° NW TN 62° to 64°
Wind direction and speed: East and southeast at 4 to 8 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 60° to 64°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 3:16 AM
Moonset: 4:59 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent.
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June 18, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High confidence
Thursday Forecast: Becoming partly cloudy. A chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms over the Pennyrile of western Kentucky. Our eastern counties. Lower chances over southeast Illinois and the rest of western Kentucky. Quite warm.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 10% KY ~ 20% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 86° to 90° SE MO 85° to 88° South IL 84° to 88° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 84° to 88° West KY 84° to 88° NW TN 85° to 88°
Wind direction and speed: Southeast at 4 to 8 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 84° to 88°
Coverage of precipitation: None for most. Scattered over western Kentucky (mainly the Pennyrile area).
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None for most. Scattered wet roadways and lightning over our eastern counties.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars.
UV Index: 11. Very high.
Sunrise: 5:34 AM
Sunset: 8:19 PM
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Thursday night Forecast: Partly cloudy. A slight chance of an evening thunderstorm over the Pennyrile area of western Kentucky.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 10% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 64° to 66° SE MO 64° to 68° South IL 64° to 68° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 64° to 68° West KY 64° to 68° NW TN 64° to 68°
Wind direction and speed: South at 4 to 8 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 65° to 70°
Coverage of precipitation: None for most. Isolated over our eastern counties.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None for most. A small chance of wet roadways and lightning near Owensboro south to Hopkinsville.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 3:47 AM
Moonset: 5:59 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent.
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June 19, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Friday Forecast: Partly sunny. Hot.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 10% IL ~ 10% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 88° to 92° SE MO 88° to 92° South IL 88° to 92° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 88° to 92° West KY 88° to 92° NW TN 88° to 92°
Wind direction and speed: Southwest to 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 86° to 92°
Coverage of precipitation: None.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 11. Very high.
Sunrise: 5:34 AM
Sunset: 8:19 PM
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Friday night Forecast: Partly cloudy. Widely scattered thunderstorms over the northern portion of southeast Missouri and northern portion of southern Illinois.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 68° to 72° SE MO 68° to 70° South IL 68° to 70° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 68° to 70° West KY 68° to 70° NW TN 68° to 72°
Wind direction and speed: South at 4 to 8 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 66° to 70°
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered over our northern counties.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None for most. Wet roadways and lightning for our northern counties.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 4:21 AM
Moonset: 7:00 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent.
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June 20, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Saturday Forecast: Partly sunny. Quite warm. Widely scattered thunderstorms. Mainly during the afternoon.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 40% IL ~ 30% KY ~ 30% TN ~ 30%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 90° to 94° SE MO 90° to 94° South IL 90° to 94° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 90° to 94° West KY 90° to 94° NW TN 90° to 94°
Wind direction and speed: Southwest to 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 90° to 95°
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning, Gusty wind near storms.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates and check radars.
UV Index: 11. Very high.
Sunrise: 5:34 AM
Sunset: 8:19 PM
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Saturday night Forecast: Partly cloudy. Scattered thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 40% IL ~ 30% KY ~ 30% TN ~ 30%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 68° to 72° SE MO 68° to 70° South IL 68° to 70° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 68° to 70° West KY 68° to 70° NW TN 68° to 72°
Wind direction and speed: Southwest at 7 to 14 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 68° to 72°
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Gusty wind near storms.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates and check radars.
Moonrise: 5:01 AM
Moonset: 8:00 PM
The phase of the moon: New
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June 21, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Sunday Forecast: Partly sunny. Quite warm. Scattered thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 40% to 50% IL ~ 40% to 50% KY ~ 40% TN ~ 40%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 88° to 92° SE MO 88° to 92° South IL 88° to 92° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 88° to 92° West KY 88° to 92° NW TN 88° to 92°
Wind direction and speed: Southwest to 6 to 12 mph with gusts above 15 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 88° to 94°
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning, Gusty wind near storms.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates and check radars.
UV Index: 11. Very high.
Sunrise: 5:34 AM
Sunset: 8:20 PM
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Sunday night Forecast: Partly cloudy. Scattered thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 40% IL ~ 40% KY ~ 40% TN ~ 40%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 68° to 72° SE MO 68° to 70° South IL 68° to 70° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 68° to 70° West KY 68° to 70° NW TN 68° to 72°
Wind direction and speed: Southwest at 7 to 14 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 68° to 72°
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Gusty wind near storms.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates and check radars.
Moonrise: 5:48 AM
Moonset: 8:59 PM
The phase of the moon: New
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June 22, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Monday Forecast: Partly sunny. Warm. Scattered thunderstorms will again be possible.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 40% IL ~ 40% KY ~ 40% TN ~ 40%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 88° to 92° SE MO 88° to 92° South IL 88° to 92° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 88° to 92° West KY 88° to 92° NW TN 88° to 92°
Wind direction and speed: Southwest to 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 88° to 94°
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning, Gusty wind near storms.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates and check radars.
UV Index: 11. Very high.
Sunrise: 5:35 AM
Sunset: 8:20 PM
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Monday night Forecast: Partly cloudy. Scattered thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30% IL ~ 30% KY ~ 30% TN ~30%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 68° to 72° SE MO 68° to 70° South IL 68° to 70° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 68° to 70° West KY 68° to 70° NW TN 68° to 72°
Wind direction and speed: Southwest at 7 to 14 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 68° to 72°
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Gusty wind near storms.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates and check radars.
Moonrise: 6:43 AM
Moonset: 9:54 PM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent
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June 23, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Tuesday Forecast: Partly sunny. Warm. Scattered thunderstorms will again be possible.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 40% IL ~ 40% KY ~ 40% TN ~ 40%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 88° to 92° SE MO 88° to 92° South IL 88° to 92° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 88° to 92° West KY 88° to 92° NW TN 88° to 92°
Wind direction and speed: Southwest to 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 88° to 94°
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning, Gusty wind near storms.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates and check radars.
UV Index: 10. Very high.
Sunrise: 5:35 AM
Sunset: 8:20 PM
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Tuesday night Forecast: Partly cloudy. Scattered thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30% IL ~ 30% KY ~ 30% TN ~30%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 68° to 72° SE MO 68° to 70° South IL 68° to 70° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 68° to 70° West KY 68° to 70° NW TN 68° to 72°
Wind direction and speed: Southwest at 7 to 14 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 68° to 72°
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Gusty wind near storms.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates and check radars.
Moonrise: 7:44 AM
Moonset: 10:41 PM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent
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June 24, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Wednesday Forecast: Partly sunny.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 84° to 88° SE MO 84° to 88° South IL 84° to 88° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 84° to 88° West KY 84° to 88° NW TN 84° to 88°
Wind direction and speed: Southwest to 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 88° to 94°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 10. Very high.
Sunrise: 5:35 AM
Sunset: 8:20 PM
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Wednesday night Forecast: Partly cloudy.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 63° to 66° SE MO 63° to 66° South IL 63° to 66° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 63° to 66° West KY 63° to 66° NW TN 64° to 68°
Wind direction and speed: Southwest at 7 to 14 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 68° to 72°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 8:50 AM
Moonset: 11:22 PM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent
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What is the UV index?
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- Heat returns later this week. We may top 90 degrees Thursday through Saturday. Lower to middle 90s Saturday. Saturday will be the warmest day.
- Monitoring shower/storm chances this coming weekend.
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Click to enlarge the graphics.
Remember, this is an average across our local area. The county by county will vary. See the detailed forecast above for each area.
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Click graphics to enlarge them.
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These are dates that may have precipitation. Monitor the trends in the forecast.
Anything past day seven is low confidence.
Graphic-cast
Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
Illinois
During active weather check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page.
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Kentucky
During active weather check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page.
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Tennessee
During active weather check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page.
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Today through June 23rd: Severe weather is not in the current forecast. Scattered storms are possible this weekend into early next week. The main concern will be lightning.
There is also a slight chance of thunderstorms this Thursday across the Pennyrile area of western Kentucky. The main concern will be lightning.
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Today’s outlook (below).
Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.
Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.
One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.
A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter size hail, and/or a tornado.
The tan states are simply a region that SPC outlined on this particular map. Just ignore that.
The black outline is our local area.
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Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook.
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The images below are from the WPC. Their totals are a bit lower than our current forecast. I wanted to show you the comparison.
24-hour precipitation outlook.
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48-hour precipitation outlook.
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72-hour precipitation outlook.
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Weather advice:
Updated June 17, 2020
No major concerns today through Friday. I am watching an increasing chance of thunderstorms over the upcoming weekend.
Download the Beau Dodson Weather Talk app from the app store. Search for Weather Talk by the Fire Horn. Download it. Install it. It is for subscribers. Not a subscriber? Go to www.weathertalk.com/welcome
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Weather Discussion
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- Warmer weather
- Low-end rain chances Thursday over portions of western Kentucky
- Shower and thunderstorm chances this coming weekend into early next week.
High pressure remains in control of our weather. Thus, the lack of any significant weather!
A large upper-level cut-off low has been drifting along the East Coast of the United States. This upper-level low will slowly shift west/northwest over the next 24 to 48 hours.
This will keep our region in east and northeast wind flow. Mostly a dry wind-flow. You want southerly winds to pull moisture northward in order for their to be a greater chance of precipitation.
The west/northwest drift (of that upper-level low) will mean some increase in clouds over portions of the area tonight and tomorrow. There may even be a few showers and thunderstorms pushing in from the east.
The most likely area for this to happen will be our eastern counties. The Pennyrile area of western Kentucky. Smaller chances elsewhere.
Temperatures today will rise into the lower and middle 80s. Temperatures will pop into the upper 80s and lower 90s Thursday through Saturday. Perhaps even some middle 90s Saturday. Mostly low to middle 80s Sunday through Wednesday (with a few more clouds and increasing shower/thunderstorm chances).
A series of upper-level disturbances will pass across the region Saturday through Tuesday. Each of these will provide at least a chance of showers and thunderstorms.
At this time, the coverage appears to be greater Sunday afternoon into Monday morning.
There remain quite a few questions about coverage and placement of shower and thunderstorm activity this weekend into early next week. Models do not agree on the placement of precipitation or rain amounts.
The deeper moisture will likely remain along the Gulf of Mexico. That means only modest southerly flow into our region. That should limit the heavy rain potential. Of course, as always, thunderstorms can produce heavier rain totals.
I will continue to monitor guidance and update the rain chances as we move closer to the weekend. I would not cancel any plans. I would simply monitor updated forecasts.
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Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
Again, as a reminder, these are models. They are never 100% accurate. Take the general idea from them.
What should I take from these?
- The general idea and not specifics. Models usually do well with the generalities.
- The time-stamp is located in the upper left corner.
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What am I looking at?
You are looking at different models. Meteorologists use many different models to forecast the weather. All models are wrong. Some are more wrong than others. Meteorologists have to make a forecast based on the guidance/models.
I show you these so you can see what the different models are showing as far as precipitation. If most of the models agree, then the confidence in the final weather forecast increases.
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This animation is the Hrrr model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Green is rain. Blue is snow. Pink and red represent sleet and freezing rain.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
No rain
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This animation is the 3K American Model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Green is rain. Blue is snow. Pink and red represent sleet and freezing rain.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
No rain
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This next animation is the NAM American Model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Green is rain. Blue is snow. Pink and red represent sleet and freezing rain.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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This next animation is the GFS American Model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Green is rain. Blue is snow. Pink and red represent sleet and freezing rain.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
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Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 84 degrees.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 73 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.00″ to 1.20″
Yellow and orange colors are above average temperatures. Red is much above average. Light blue and blue are below-average temperatures. Green to purple colors represents much below-average temperatures.
This outlook covers June 17th through June 23rd
Click on the image to expand it.
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The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF AVERAGE. Brown is below average. Green is above average. Blue is much above average.
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Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 76 degrees
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.00″ to 1.20″
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This outlook covers June 24th through June 30th
Click on the image to expand it.
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The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF AVERAGE. For example, if your average rainfall is 1.00″ and the graphic shows 25%, then that would mean 0.25″ of rain is anticipated.
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EC = Equal chances of above or below average
BN= Below average
M/BN = Much below average
AN = Above average
M/AN = Much above average
E/AN = Extremely above average
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 69 degrees
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.70″ to 2.20″
This outlook covers June 30th through July 13th
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Precipitation outlook
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LONG RANGE DISCUSSION
Key Points: This was written by the BAMwx team. I don’t edit it.
Click to enlarge all of the images below
These graphics are updated Monday through Friday between 8:30 AM and 9:30 AM.
NOTE: These may not be updated on Saturday and Sunday.
Click the image below to enlarge it.
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Summer outlook
Click to enlarge it. Then, you can read it better.
June through August
Temperature departures
Precipitation
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June temperature departures
Click on the images to enlarge them
Precipitation outlook
July temperature departures
Click on the images to enlarge them
July Precipitation
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National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.
Storm Prediction Center. Click here.
Weather Prediction Center. Click here.
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Live lightning data: Click here.
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Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.
GOES 16 slider tool. Click here.
College of Dupage satellites. Click here
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Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.
Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.
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