July 23, 2021. Beau’s subscriber’s weather blog update. Not a subscriber? Go to www.weathertalk.com/welcome Once subscribed, download the WeatherTalk app in the app store

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7-day forecast for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.

This is a BLEND for the region. See the detailed region by region forecast further down in this post.

THE FORECAST IS GOING TO VARY FROM LOCATON TO LOCATION.

SEE THE DAILY DETAILS (REGION BY REGION) FURTHER DOWN IN THIS BLOG UPDATE.

48-hour forecast

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Friday to Friday

1. Is lightning in the forecast? Yes. A low-end chance of lightning Friday and Saturday. The chances Friday and Saturday will be a bit higher over southeast Missouri vs everywhere else. Increasing lightning chances Sunday and Monday. I am monitoring Tuesday.

2. Are severe thunderstorms in the forecast? Monitor. A few storms could produce high winds Sunday and Monday. Other days will likely produce less coverage in thunderstorm activity. Storms that form, however, in the high heat of summer can produce strong and gusty downburst winds.

The NWS officially defines a severe thunderstorm as a storm with 58 mph wind or greater, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes

3. Is flash flooding in the forecast? Monitor. Recent heavy rainfall has saturated the ground. Locally heavy rain will be possible with thunderstorms. Monitor updates concerning the risk of flash flooding. The highest chance of flash flooding would be Sunday and Monday.

Slow moving thunderstorms could produce one to two inches of rain in less than 30-minutes.

4. Will the heat index top 100 degrees? Yes. Into next week. Heat index values will range from 95 to 105 degrees. Locally higher Tuesday, Wednesday, and perhaps Thursday.

5. Will the wind chill dip below 10 degrees above zero? No.

6. Will there be accumulating snow and ice in the forecast? No.

July 23, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High confidence
Friday Forecast: Mostly sunny. Hot and humid. Haze and smoke. Isolated thunderstorms. The chance of storms will be slightly higher across southeast Missouri.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 20% / SE MO ~ 20% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 10% / South IL ~ 10% / West KY ~ 10% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 10% / NW TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated. The chance is a bit higher over southeast Missouri.
Timing of the rain: PM hours
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 88° to 94° / SE MO 88° to 94° / South IL 88° to 92° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 88° to 92° / West KY 88° to 92° / NW TN 88° to 92°
Wind direction and speed: Southwest 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 95° to 100°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Poor air quality because of smoke. Perhaps an isolated wet roadway or lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No. Check radars after 12 PM.
UV Index: 10. Very high
Sunrise: 5:53 AM
Sunset: 8:11 PM
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Friday night Forecast: Mostly clear. Warm and hazy. A slight chance of an evening thunderstorm over mainly southeast Missouri and southwest Illinois.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 10% / SE MO ~ 10% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 10% / South IL ~ 10% / West KY ~ 5% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 5% / NW TN ~ 5%
Coverage of precipitation: None for most. Isolated over southeast Missouri and perhaps southwest Illinois.
Timing of the rain: Before midnight.
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 70° to 75° / SE MO 70° to 75° / South IL 70° to 75° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 70° to 75° / West KY 70° to 75° / NW TN 70° to 75°
Wind direction and speed: South southwest 5 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 70° to 75°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None for most. Isolated wet roads and lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No.
Moonrise: 8:23 PM
Moonset: 5:01 AM
The phase of the moon: Full

July 24, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High confidence
Saturday Forecast: Mostly sunny. Hazy, hot, and humid. A slight chance of a shower or thunderstorm. Most areas will remain dry.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 10% / SE MO ~ 20% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 10% / South IL ~ 10% / West KY ~ 10% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 10% / NW TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: None to isolated
Timing of the rain: Mostly during the afternoon
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 90° to 95° / SE MO 90° to 95° / South IL 90° to 95° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 90° to 95° / West KY 90° to 95° / NW TN 90° to 95°
Wind direction and speed: South southwest 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 98° to 104°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Poor air quality because of smoke. Isolated wet roadways. Isolated lightning. Locally heavy downpours where thunderstorms occur. Most of the area will remain dry.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No.
UV Index: 10. Very high
Sunrise: 5:54 AM
Sunset: 8:10 PM
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Saturday night Forecast: Partly cloudy. A slight chance of a thunderstorm. Most areas will remain dry.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 10% / SE MO ~ 10% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 10% / South IL ~ 10% / West KY ~ 10% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 10% / NW TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: None to isolated. Most areas will be dry.
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time.
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 72° to 75° / SE MO 72° to 74° / South IL 72° to 74° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 72° to 74° / West KY 72° to 74° / NW TN 72° to 74°
Wind direction and speed: South southwest 4 to 8 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 72° to 75°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Most areas will remain dry.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No. Check the weather radars.
Moonrise: 9:08 PM
Moonset: 6:11 AM
The phase of the moon: Full

July 25, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Sunday Forecast: Partly cloudy. A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Hot and humid.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 50% / SE MO ~ 60% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 60% / South IL ~ 60% / West KY ~ 60% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 60% / NW TN ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to perhaps numerous
Timing of the rain: Mostly during the afternoon
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 92° to 94° / SE MO 92° to 95° / South IL 92° to 95° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 92° to 94° / West KY 92° to 94° / NW TN 92° to 94°
Wind direction and speed: South southwest 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 96° to 102°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Locally heavy downpours where thunderstorms occur.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No. Check the radars.
UV Index: 10. Very high
Sunrise: 5:54 AM
Sunset: 8:09 PM
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Sunday night Forecast: Partly cloudy. Warm and humid. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 50% / SE MO ~ 60% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 60% / South IL ~ 60% / West KY ~ 60% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 60% / NW TN ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to numerous
Timing of the rain: Mostly before midnight.
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 72° to 75° / SE MO 72° to 75° / South IL 72° to 74° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 72° to 74° / West KY 72° to 75° / NW TN 72° to 75°
Wind direction and speed: South southwest 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 74° to 78°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Locally heavy rain.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No. Check the weather radars.
Moonrise: 9:45 PM
Moonset: 7:21 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous

July 26, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Monday Forecast: Partly cloudy. Hot and muggy. A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Some storms could be heavy.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 60% / SE MO ~ 60% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 60% / South IL ~ 60% / West KY ~ 60% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 60% / NW TN ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time. Highest chances will be during the PM hours.
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 90° to 94° / SE MO 90° to 94° / South IL 90° to 94° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 90° to 94° / West KY 90° to 94° / NW TN 90° to 94°
Wind direction and speed: South southwest 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 96° to 102°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Locally heavy downpours where thunderstorms occur.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No. Check the radars.
UV Index: 10. Very high
Sunrise: 5:55 AM
Sunset: 8:08 PM
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Monday night Forecast: Partly cloudy. A chance of a shower or thunderstorm. Warm and humid.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 30% / SE MO ~ 30% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 30% / South IL ~ 30% / West KY ~ 30% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 30% / NW TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the rain: Mostly before midnight.
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 72° to 74° / SE MO 72° to 74° / South IL 72° to 74° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 72° to 74° / West KY 72° to 74° / NW TN 72° to 74°
Wind direction and speed: South southwest 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 72° to 75°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Locally heavy rain where storms occur.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No. Check the weather radars.
Moonrise: 10:17 PM
Moonset: 8:30 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous

July 27, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Tuesday Forecast: Partly cloudy. Hot and muggy. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 30% / SE MO ~ 30% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 30% / South IL ~ 30% / West KY ~ 30% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 30% / NW TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time. Highest chances will be during the PM hours.
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 90° to 94° / SE MO 90° to 94° / South IL 90° to 94° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 90° to 94° / West KY 90° to 94° / NW TN 90° to 94°
Wind direction and speed: South southwest 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 100° to 105° locally higher depending on clouds
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Locally heavy downpours where thunderstorms occur.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No. Check the radars.
UV Index: 10. Very high
Sunrise: 5:56 AM
Sunset: 8:07 PM
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Tuesday night Forecast: Partly cloudy. A chance of a shower or thunderstorm. Warm and humid.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 20% / SE MO ~ 20% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 20% / South IL ~ 20% / West KY ~ 20% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 20% / NW TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered
Timing of the rain: Mostly before midnight.
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 72° to 74° / SE MO 72° to 74° / South IL 72° to 74° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 72° to 74° / West KY 72° to 74° / NW TN 72° to 74°
Wind direction and speed: South southwest 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 72° to 75°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No. Check the weather radars.
Moonrise: 10:45 PM
Moonset: 9:35 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous

July 28, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High confidence
Wednesday Forecast: Mostly sunny. Hot and muggy.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 92° to 95° / SE MO 92° to 95° / South IL 92° to 95° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 92° to 95° / West KY 92° to 95° / NW TN 92° to 95°
Wind direction and speed: South southwest 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 102° to 106°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? High heat index values.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No.
UV Index: 10. Very high
Sunrise: 5:57 AM
Sunset: 8:06 PM
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Wednesday night Forecast: Mostly clear warm and humid.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered
Timing of the rain: Mostly before midnight.
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 72° to 74° / SE MO 72° to 74° / South IL 72° to 74° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 72° to 74° / West KY 72° to 74° / NW TN 72° to 74°
Wind direction and speed: South southwest 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 72° to 75°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No.
Moonrise: 11:10 PM
Moonset: 10:38 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous

July 29, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? LOW confidence
Thursday Forecast: Mostly sunny. Hot and muggy. A chance of thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 10% / SE MO ~ 20% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 20% / South IL ~ 20% / West KY ~ 20% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 20% / NW TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered
Timing of the rain: Mainly the PM hours
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 88° to 94° / SE MO 88° to 94° / South IL 88° to 94° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 88° to 94° / West KY 88° to 94° / NW TN 88° to 94°
Wind direction and speed: South southwest 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 92° to 96°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No. But monitor updates.
UV Index: 10. Very high
Sunrise: 5:58 AM
Sunset: 8:06 PM
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Thursday night Forecast: Mostly clear. Warm and humid.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 72° to 74° / SE MO 72° to 74° / South IL 72° to 74° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 72° to 74° / West KY 72° to 74° / NW TN 72° to 74°
Wind direction and speed: South southwest 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 72° to 75°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No.
Moonrise: 11:35 PM
Moonset: 11:37 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous

These graphics are changed out between 10:00 AM and 11:00 AM (Monday through Friday only)

Double click on the images to enlarge them.

Click the images to enlarge them.

These five graphics are from Thursday. New graphics will be posted after 10 AM Friday.

Graphic-cast

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Illinois

Check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page. These are auto-generated. My actual forecast may vary from these.

Kentucky

Check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page. These are auto-generated. My actual forecast may vary from these.

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.Tennessee

Check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page. These are auto-generated. My actual forecast may vary from these.

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Today through July 25th: A few thunderstorms could produce isolated high wind gusts. Typical for the Month of July. I will monitor the potential of MCS’s (thunderstorm complexes). If a complex does form then updated severe weather forecasts will be necessary.

The highest chance of an MCS will be Sunday and Monday.

Today’s outlook (below).

Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.

Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.

One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.

A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter size hail, and/or a tornado.

The tan states are simply a region that SPC outlined on this particular map. Just ignore that.

The black outline is our local area.

Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook.

The images below are from the WPC. Their totals are a bit lower than our current forecast. I wanted to show you the comparison.

24-hour precipitation outlook.
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48-hour precipitation outlook.
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72-hour precipitation outlook.
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Weather Discussion

1. Smoky sky conditions. Poor air-quality conditions.
2. Monitor shower and thunderstorm chances into next week.
3. Heat index values of 95 to 105 into most of next week.
4. Higher heat next Tuesday and Wednesday.

Weather advice:

Poor air-quality, because of haze and smoke, could cause problems for those with asthma and breathing issues. That would primarily me today and tomorrow.

Heat and humidity will make it feel uncomfortable today into much of next week.

I am monitoring thunderstorm chances (mainly Sunday and Monday). Some storms could produce torrential rain and high winds. Lightning is always a concern for those outdoors.

Weather Discussion

Our smoke and haze continue to be a big news story across the Central United States. Actually, across much of the United States.

Here is the forecast for today’s near surface smoke. Most of this smoke is coming from Canada. Some of you can even smell the smoke. That is just crazy to think about. Smelling smoke from Canadian wildfires. Yet, here we are!

Smoke higher up in the atmosphere.

A few thunderstorms may bubble up in the heat of the day across southeast Missouri (this afternoon). Chances over the rest of the area are small.

The future-cast radars capture this idea. A couple of storms forming later today over mainly southeast Missouri.

The concern with thunderstorms will be slow movement. They could produce some gully washers in isolated areas. Gusty wind, as well. Lightning, of course.

Let’s look at rain totals, estimated by radars, over the past few weeks. Double click on these graphics to enlarge them.

The last seven days

Notice some areas have received over ten inches of rain!

The last fourteen days

The last thirty days

A couple of thunderstorms are possible Saturday, as well. The bulk of the region will be hazy, hot, and muggy.

A cold front will push into the region Sunday and Monday. This front will help produce thunderstorms with torrential rain, gusty winds, and lightning.

The highest chance of storms may end up being Sunday evening and then again Monday. I need to closely monitor both time-frames.

There may be adjustments on the % numbers. For now, I have fairly high to high thunderstorm chances both Sunday afternoon into Monday evening.

The thunderstorms will push in from the north and will be moving south.

The front will basically fall apart and wash out over our region by Monday night.

That will leave a boundary Tuesday with perhaps a couple of storms.

With that said, high pressure is forecast to build into the region Tuesday and Wednesday. That may produce a lid on the atmosphere to prevent storms those two days.

Either way, the end result will be hot and muggy weather with heat index values above 100 Tuesday and Wednesday. We may need some sort of heat advisory if we have multiple days with high heat index values.

Let’s look at some heat index value charts. The heat index is what your body believes the temperatures is. This is key to those who work outside. All your body cares about is the heat index.

Today

Saturday

Sunday

Monday

Tuesday

Wednesday

I am monitoring another cold front next Thursday or Friday. Confidence in that, however, is currently low. I will monitor trends in the guidance.

Let me show you the GEFS model guidance for temperatures over the next 16-days.

As always, anything past day seven is going to be lower confidence.

Union City, Tennessee

Poplar Bluff, Missouri

Carbondale, Illinois

Paducah, Kentucky

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Again, as a reminder, these are models. They are never 100% accurate. Take the general idea from them.

What should I take from these?

The general idea and not specifics. Models usually do well with the generalities.
The time-stamp is located in the upper left corner.
The EC European weather model is in Zulu time.

What am I looking at?
You are looking at different models. Meteorologists use many different models to forecast the weather. All models are wrong. Some are more wrong than others. Meteorologists have to make a forecast based on the guidance/models.

I show you these so you can see what the different models are showing as far as precipitation. If most of the models agree, then the confidence in the final weather forecast increases.

You can see my final forecast at the top of the page.

This animation is the Storm Prediction Center WRF model.

This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.