July 22, 2021. Beau’s subscriber’s weather blog update. Not a subscriber? Go to www.weathertalk.com/welcome Once subscribed, download the WeatherTalk app in the app store

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7-day forecast for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.

This is a BLEND for the region. See the detailed region by region forecast further down in this post.

THE FORECAST IS GOING TO VARY FROM LOCATON TO LOCATION.

SEE THE DAILY DETAILS (REGION BY REGION) FURTHER DOWN IN THIS BLOG UPDATE.

48-hour forecast

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Thursday to Thursday

1. Is lightning in the forecast? Yes. A low-end chance of lightning Friday and Saturday. Increasing chances Sunday and Monday. I am monitoring Tuesday through Thursday.

2. Are severe thunderstorms in the forecast? Monitor. A few storms could produce high winds Sunday and Monday. Other days will likely produce less coverage in thunderstorm activity. Storms that form, however, in the high heat of summer can produce strong and gusty downburst winds.

The NWS officially defines a severe thunderstorm as a storm with 58 mph wind or greater, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes

3. Is flash flooding in the forecast? Monitor. Recent heavy rainfall has saturated the ground. Locally heavy rain will be possible with thunderstorms later this week. Monitor updates concerning the risk of flash flooding. The highest chance of flash flooding would be Sunday and Monday.

4. Will the heat index top 100 degrees? Yes. Into next week. Heat index values will range from 95 to 105 degrees.

5. Will the wind chill dip below 10 degrees above zero? No.

6. Will there be accumulating snow and ice in the forecast? No.

July 22, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High confidence
Thursday Forecast: Partly to mostly sunny. Haze and smoke possible. Hot.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 10% / South IL ~ 10% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 10% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: Most likely none. A tiny chance near the I-64 corridor.
Timing of the rain: After 12 PM
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 88° to 92° / SE MO 88° to 92° / South IL 88° to 92° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 88° to 92° / West KY 88° to 92° / NW TN 88° to 92°
Wind direction and speed: South southwest 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 94° to 98°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Poor air quality because of smoke.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No.
UV Index: 10. Very high
Sunrise: 5:52 AM
Sunset: 8:11 PM
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Thursday night Forecast: Partly cloudy.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 70° to 72° / SE MO 70° to 72° / South IL 70° to 72° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 70° to 72° / West KY 70° to 72° / NW TN 70° to 72°
Wind direction and speed: South southwest wind 5 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 70° to 72°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No.
Moonrise: 7:27 PM
Moonset: 3:55 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous

July 23, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High confidence
Friday Forecast: Mostly sunny. Hot and humid. Haze and smoke. Most likely dry. If a storm were to form it would be isolated. The chance of storms will be slightly higher across southeast Missouri.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 20% / SE MO ~ 20% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 10% / South IL ~ 10% / West KY ~ 10% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 10% / NW TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: None to isolated.
Timing of the rain: PM hours (if any at all)
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 88° to 94° / SE MO 88° to 94° / South IL 88° to 92° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 88° to 92° / West KY 88° to 92° / NW TN 88° to 92°
Wind direction and speed: Southwest 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 95° to 100°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Poor air quality because of smoke. Perhaps an isolated wet roadway or lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No.
UV Index: 10. Very high
Sunrise: 5:53 AM
Sunset: 8:11 PM
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Friday night Forecast: Mostly clear. Warm and hazy.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 10% / SE MO ~ 10% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 10% / South IL ~ 10% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 70° to 75° / SE MO 70° to 75° / South IL 70° to 75° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 70° to 75° / West KY 70° to 75° / NW TN 70° to 75°
Wind direction and speed: South southwest 5 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 70° to 75°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No.
Moonrise: 8:23 PM
Moonset: 5:01 AM
The phase of the moon: Full

July 24, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High confidence
Saturday Forecast: Partly to mostly sunny. Hot. A slight chance of a shower or thunderstorm. Most areas will remain dry.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 20% / SE MO ~ 20% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 20% / South IL ~ 10% / West KY ~ 10% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 20% / NW TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Timing of the rain: Mostly during the afternoon
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 90° to 95° / SE MO 90° to 95° / South IL 90° to 95° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 90° to 95° / West KY 90° to 95° / NW TN 90° to 95°
Wind direction and speed: South southwest 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 98° to 104°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Poor air quality because of smoke. Isolated wet roadways. Isolated lightning. Locally heavy downpours where thunderstorms occur.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No. Check the radars.
UV Index: 10. Very high
Sunrise: 5:54 AM
Sunset: 8:10 PM
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Saturday night Forecast: Partly cloudy. A slight chance of a thunderstorm. Most areas will remain dry.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 10% / SE MO ~ 10% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 10% / South IL ~ 10% / West KY ~ 10% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 10% / NW TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Timing of the rain: Mostly before midnight
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 72° to 75° / SE MO 72° to 74° / South IL 72° to 74° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 72° to 74° / West KY 72° to 74° / NW TN 72° to 74°
Wind direction and speed: South southwest 4 to 8 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 72° to 75°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No. Check the weather radars.
Moonrise: 9:08 PM
Moonset: 6:11 AM
The phase of the moon: Full

July 25, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Sunday Forecast: Partly cloudy. A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Hot and humid.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 50% / SE MO ~ 60% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 60% / South IL ~ 60% / West KY ~ 60% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 60% / NW TN ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to perhaps numerous
Timing of the rain: Mostly during the afternoon
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 92° to 94° / SE MO 92° to 95° / South IL 92° to 95° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 92° to 94° / West KY 92° to 94° / NW TN 92° to 94°
Wind direction and speed: South southwest 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 96° to 102°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Locally heavy downpours where thunderstorms occur.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No. Check the radars.
UV Index: 10. Very high
Sunrise: 5:54 AM
Sunset: 8:09 PM
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Sunday night Forecast: Partly cloudy. Warm and humid. A chance of a shower or thunderstorm.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 50% / SE MO ~ 60% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 60% / South IL ~ 60% / West KY ~ 60% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 60% / NW TN ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to numerous
Timing of the rain: Mostly before midnight.
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 72° to 75° / SE MO 72° to 75° / South IL 72° to 74° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 72° to 74° / West KY 72° to 75° / NW TN 72° to 75°
Wind direction and speed: South southwest 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 74° to 78°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Locally heavy rain.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No. Check the weather radars.
Moonrise: 9:45 PM
Moonset: 7:21 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous

July 26, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Monday Forecast: Partly cloudy. Hot and muggy. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 50% / SE MO ~ 60% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 60% / South IL ~ 60% / West KY ~ 60% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 60% / NW TN ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time. Highest chances will be during the PM hours.
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 93° to 96° / SE MO 94° to 96° / South IL 92° to 95° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 90° to 94° / West KY 90° to 94° / NW TN 90° to 94°
Wind direction and speed: South southwest 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 98° to 102°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Locally heavy downpours where thunderstorms occur.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No. Check the radars.
UV Index: 10. Very high
Sunrise: 5:55 AM
Sunset: 8:08 PM
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Monday night Forecast: Partly cloudy. A chance of a shower or thunderstorm. Warm and humid.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 30% / SE MO ~ 40% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 40% / South IL ~ 40% / West KY ~ 40% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 40% / NW TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the rain: Mostly before midnight.
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 72° to 74° / SE MO 72° to 74° / South IL 72° to 74° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 72° to 74° / West KY 72° to 74° / NW TN 72° to 74°
Wind direction and speed: South southwest 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 72° to 75°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Locally heavy rain where storms occur.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No. Check the weather radars.
Moonrise: 10:17 PM
Moonset: 8:30 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous

July 27, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Tuesday Forecast: Partly cloudy. Hot and muggy. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 30% / SE MO ~ 30% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 30% / South IL ~ 30% / West KY ~ 30% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 30% / NW TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time. Highest chances will be during the PM hours.
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 93° to 96° / SE MO 94° to 96° / South IL 92° to 95° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 90° to 94° / West KY 90° to 94° / NW TN 90° to 94°
Wind direction and speed: South southwest 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 98° to 102°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Locally heavy downpours where thunderstorms occur.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No. Check the radars.
UV Index: 10. Very high
Sunrise: 5:56 AM
Sunset: 8:07 PM
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Tuesday night Forecast: Partly cloudy. A chance of a shower or thunderstorm. Warm and humid.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 20% / SE MO ~ 20% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 20% / South IL ~ 20% / West KY ~ 20% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 20% / NW TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered
Timing of the rain: Mostly before midnight.
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 72° to 74° / SE MO 72° to 74° / South IL 72° to 74° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 72° to 74° / West KY 72° to 74° / NW TN 72° to 74°
Wind direction and speed: South southwest 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 72° to 75°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No. Check the weather radars.
Moonrise: 10:45 PM
Moonset: 9:35 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous

July 28, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Wednesday Forecast: Partly cloudy. Hot and muggy. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 20% / SE MO ~ 20% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 20% / South IL ~ 20% / West KY ~ 20% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 20% / NW TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time. Highest chances will be during the PM hours.
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 93° to 96° / SE MO 94° to 96° / South IL 92° to 95° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 90° to 94° / West KY 90° to 94° / NW TN 90° to 94°
Wind direction and speed: South southwest 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 98° to 102°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Locally heavy downpours where thunderstorms occur.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No. Check the radars.
UV Index: 10. Very high
Sunrise: 5:57 AM
Sunset: 8:06 PM
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Wednesday night Forecast: Partly cloudy. A chance of a shower or thunderstorm. Warm and humid.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 20% / SE MO ~ 20% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 20% / South IL ~ 20% / West KY ~ 20% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 20% / NW TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered
Timing of the rain: Mostly before midnight.
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 72° to 74° / SE MO 72° to 74° / South IL 72° to 74° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 72° to 74° / West KY 72° to 74° / NW TN 72° to 74°
Wind direction and speed: South southwest 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 72° to 75°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No. Check the weather radars.
Moonrise: 11:10 PM
Moonset: 10:38 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous

These graphics are changed out between 10:00 AM and 11:00 AM (Monday through Friday only)

Double click on the images to enlarge them.

Click the images to enlarge them.

Click graphics to enlarge them. These are Thursday’s graphics.

Graphic-cast

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Illinois

Check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page. These are auto-generated. My actual forecast may vary from these.

Kentucky

Check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page. These are auto-generated. My actual forecast may vary from these.

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.Tennessee

Check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page. These are auto-generated. My actual forecast may vary from these.

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Today through July 25th: A few thunderstorms could produce isolated high wind gusts. Typical for the Month of July. I will monitor the potential of MCS’s (thunderstorm complexes). If a complex does form then updated severe weather forecasts will be necessary.

The highest chance of an MCS will be Sunday and Monday.

Today’s outlook (below).

Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.

Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.

One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.

A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter size hail, and/or a tornado.

The tan states are simply a region that SPC outlined on this particular map. Just ignore that.

The black outline is our local area.

Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook.

The images below are from the WPC. Their totals are a bit lower than our current forecast. I wanted to show you the comparison.

24-hour precipitation outlook.
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48-hour precipitation outlook.
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72-hour precipitation outlook.
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Weather Discussion

1. Smoky sky conditions. Poor air-quality conditions.
2. Monitor shower and thunderstorm chances into next week.
3. Heat index values of 95 to 105 into most of next week.

Weather advice:

Temperatures will be rising over the coming days. Use care if you must work outside.

Smoke (from the Pacific Northwest and Canadian wildfires) will make for poor air-quality conditions.

Weather Discussion

The big weather story continues to be all of the smoke and haze.

Wildfires from the Pacific Northwest and Canada are the cause. This smoke is covering a large portion of the United States. I don’t recall anything quite like it (the extent of it).

We even have near surface smoke, from time to time, in our local area. This is causing air-quality issues in some of my forecast counties.

Here is the latest near surface smoke forecast. It is rare to see near-surface smoke in our region from fires in Canada.

It is possible some of us can smell the smoke/fires today. It is unusual, but has happened before.

Here is the entire atmosphere smoke forecast for today.

This is impressive.

The smoke will remain with us today, tomorrow, and Saturday. There may be some shift Sunday and Monday towards less smoke and more clouds (storms possible).

We also are dealing with daily patchy fog in the region. Visibility has been less than 1/2 mile, from time to time, here at The Weather Observatory in Massac County, Illinois.

The fog will mix out over the coming hours. That will leave us with hazy/smoky sky conditions for the rest of today.

There is a tiny chance of a thunderstorm near I64 in Illinois later this afternoon. Odds favor dry conditions.

It now appears that thunderstorm chances Friday and Saturday will be low. The chances will be a bit higher over southeast Missouri both days. Even there, it appears any thunderstorm activity would be scattered, at best.

If you have outdoor plans Friday and Saturday plan on smoke and sun. Hot/hazy conditions. Highs in the 90s. Heat index values of 95 to 105 degrees.

The large ridge of high pressure (that is causing the heat) will slide a bit to the west by Sunday and Monday. That will help introduce higher chances of showers and thunderstorms. Some of these thunderstorms could produce heavy rain and high wind.

MCS’s will be possible both days. MCS’s are large summer thunderstorm complexes. They are responsible for much of our summer rain. They are a necessary element in our weather.

What we don’t need is more rain. Many areas have had way too much rain over the last few weeks. The Weather Observatory has measured 7.5″ since June 29th!

The grass won’t stop growing. It is just too wet for many areas.

The St Louis, Missouri, NWS put out this graphic. All that rain!!!!

Heavy rain could cause flash flooding. Let’s keep an eye on thunderstorm chances both Sunday and Monday.

You can see one disturbance Monday on the GFS model. This is Sunday night/Monday. The red area coming through Missouri and Illinois is an area of lift.

I will need to fine-tune the % numbers when it comes to thunderstorm chances both Sunday and Monday. Then, the timing will need to be worked out. Monitor updates.

As we move past Monday, the chance of showers and thunderstorms will begin to decrease and temperatures may begin to rise back into the middle 90s.

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Again, as a reminder, these are models. They are never 100% accurate. Take the general idea from them.

What should I take from these?

The general idea and not specifics. Models usually do well with the generalities.
The time-stamp is located in the upper left corner.
The EC European weather model is in Zulu time.

What am I looking at?
You are looking at different models. Meteorologists use many different models to forecast the weather. All models are wrong. Some are more wrong than others. Meteorologists have to make a forecast based on the guidance/models.

I show you these so you can see what the different models are showing as far as precipitation. If most of the models agree, then the confidence in the final weather forecast increases.

You can see my final forecast at the top of the page.

This animation is the Storm Prediction Center WRF model.

This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.