July 21, 2021. Beau’s subscriber’s weather blog update. Not a subscriber? Go to www.weathertalk.com/welcome Once subscribed, download the WeatherTalk app in the app store

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7-day forecast for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.

This is a BLEND for the region. See the detailed region by region forecast further down in this post.

THE FORECAST IS GOING TO VARY FROM LOCATON TO LOCATION.

SEE THE DAILY DETAILS (REGION BY REGION) FURTHER DOWN IN THIS BLOG UPDATE.

48-hour forecast

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Wednesday to Wednesday

1. Is lightning in the forecast? Yes. A chance of lightning Thursday, Friday, Saturday, Sunday, Monday, and Tuesday.

2. Are severe thunderstorms in the forecast? Unlikely. Monitor updates. Summer thunderstorms can occasionally produce isolated wind damage. Widespread severe weather appears unlikely.

The NWS officially defines a severe thunderstorm as a storm with 58 mph wind or greater, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes

3. Is flash flooding in the forecast? Monitor. Recent heavy rainfall has saturated the ground. Locally heavy rain will be possible with thunderstorms later this week. Monitor updates concerning the risk of flash flooding.

4. Will the heat index top 100 degrees? Yes. Temperatures will be on the rise later this week. As temperatures move into the lower to middle 90s, there could be some heat index values at or above 100 degrees. Currently, the hottest days appear to be Friday through Tuesday. There may be enough smoke in the air or clouds (from time to time) to keep temperatures down just a bit. If that happens then we would avoid the higher heat index values.

5. Will the wind chill dip below 10 degrees above zero? No.

6. Will there be accumulating snow and ice in the forecast? No.

July 21, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High confidence
Wednesday Forecast: Mostly sunny. Smokey, at times (from the Canadian wildfires). Hot and humid. A few PM clouds over southeast Illinois and western Kentucky. Hot and humid.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 10% / South IL ~ 10% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 10% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None for most of the region. I did add an isolated chance near the IL/IN state line.
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 86° to 90° / SE MO 86° to 90° / South IL 86° to 90° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 86° to 90° / West KY 86° to 90° / NW TN 86° to 90°
Wind direction and speed: Northerly at 5 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 90° to 94°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 10. Very high
Sunrise: 5:51 AM
Sunset: 8:12 PM
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Wednesday night Forecast: Mostly clear. Mild.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 66° to 70° / SE MO 66° to 70° / South IL 66° to 70° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 66° to 70° / West KY 66° to 70° / NW TN 66° to 70°
Wind direction and speed: Northeast at 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 66° to 70°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 6:23 PM
Moonset: 2:58 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous

July 22, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High confidence
Thursday Forecast: Partly to mostly sunny. Haze and smoke possible. Hot.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 10% / South IL ~ 10% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 10% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: Most likely none. A tiny chance near the I-64 corridor.
Timing of the rain: After 12 PM
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 88° to 92° / SE MO 88° to 92° / South IL 88° to 92° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 88° to 92° / West KY 88° to 92° / NW TN 88° to 92°
Wind direction and speed: South southwest 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 94° to 98°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Poor air quality because of smoke.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No.
UV Index: 10. Very high
Sunrise: 5:52 AM
Sunset: 8:11 PM
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Thursday night Forecast: Partly cloudy.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 70° to 72° / SE MO 70° to 72° / South IL 70° to 72° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 70° to 72° / West KY 70° to 72° / NW TN 70° to 72°
Wind direction and speed: South southwest wind 5 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 70° to 72°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No.
Moonrise: 7:27 PM
Moonset: 3:55 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous

July 23, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High confidence
Friday Forecast: Mostly sunny. Hot and humid. Haze and smoke. Most likely dry. If a storm were to form it would be isolated.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 10% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 10% / NW TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: None to isolated.
Timing of the rain: PM hours (if any at all)
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 88° to 94° / SE MO 88° to 94° / South IL 88° to 92° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 88° to 92° / West KY 88° to 92° / NW TN 88° to 92°
Wind direction and speed: Southwest 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 90° to 96°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Poor air quality because of smoke. Perhaps an isolated wet roadway or lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No.
UV Index: 10. Very high
Sunrise: 5:53 AM
Sunset: 8:11 PM
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Friday night Forecast: Mostly clear. Warm and hazy.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 70° to 75° / SE MO 70° to 75° / South IL 70° to 75° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 70° to 75° / West KY 70° to 75° / NW TN 70° to 75°
Wind direction and speed: South southwest 5 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 70° to 75°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No.
Moonrise: 8:23 PM
Moonset: 5:01 AM
The phase of the moon: Full

July 24, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High confidence
Saturday Forecast: Partly to mostly sunny. Hot. A slight chance of a shower or thunderstorm. Most areas will remain dry.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 10% / SE MO ~ 10% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 10% / South IL ~ 10% / West KY ~ 10% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 20% / NW TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered
Timing of the rain: Mostly during the afternoon
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 90° to 95° / SE MO 90° to 95° / South IL 90° to 95° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 90° to 95° / West KY 90° to 95° / NW TN 90° to 95°
Wind direction and speed: South southwest 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 95° to 100°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Poor air quality because of smoke. Isolated wet roadways. Isolated lightning. Locally heavy downpours where thunderstorms occur.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No. Check the radars.
UV Index: 10. Very high
Sunrise: 5:54 AM
Sunset: 8:10 PM
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Saturday night Forecast: Partly cloudy. A slight chance of a thunderstorm. Most areas will remain dry.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 10% / SE MO ~ 10% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 10% / South IL ~ 10% / West KY ~ 10% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 10% / NW TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Timing of the rain: Mostly before midnight
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 72° to 75° / SE MO 72° to 74° / South IL 72° to 74° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 72° to 74° / West KY 72° to 74° / NW TN 72° to 74°
Wind direction and speed: South southwest 4 to 8 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 72° to 75°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No. Check the weather radars.
Moonrise: 9:08 PM
Moonset: 6:11 AM
The phase of the moon: Full

July 25, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Sunday Forecast: Partly cloudy. A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Hot and humid.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 50% / SE MO ~ 60% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 60% / South IL ~ 60% / West KY ~ 60% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 60% / NW TN ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to perhaps numerous
Timing of the rain: Mostly during the afternoon
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 92° to 94° / SE MO 92° to 95° / South IL 92° to 95° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 92° to 94° / West KY 92° to 94° / NW TN 92° to 94°
Wind direction and speed: South southwest 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 96° to 102°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Locally heavy downpours where thunderstorms occur.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No. Check the radars.
UV Index: 10. Very high
Sunrise: 5:54 AM
Sunset: 8:09 PM
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Sunday night Forecast: Partly cloudy. Warm and humid. A chance of a shower or thunderstorm.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 50% / SE MO ~ 60% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 60% / South IL ~ 60% / West KY ~ 60% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 60% / NW TN ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to numerous
Timing of the rain: Mostly before midnight.
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 72° to 75° / SE MO 72° to 75° / South IL 72° to 74° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 72° to 74° / West KY 72° to 75° / NW TN 72° to 75°
Wind direction and speed: South southwest 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 74° to 78°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Locally heavy rain.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No. Check the weather radars.
Moonrise: 9:45 PM
Moonset: 7:21 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous

July 26, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Monday Forecast: Partly cloudy. Hot and muggy. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 50% / SE MO ~ 60% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 60% / South IL ~ 60% / West KY ~ 60% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 60% / NW TN ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time. Highest chances will be during the PM hours.
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 93° to 96° / SE MO 94° to 96° / South IL 92° to 95° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 90° to 94° / West KY 90° to 94° / NW TN 90° to 94°
Wind direction and speed: South southwest 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 98° to 102°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Locally heavy downpours where thunderstorms occur.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No. Check the radars.
UV Index: 10. Very high
Sunrise: 5:55 AM
Sunset: 8:08 PM
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Monday night Forecast: Partly cloudy. A chance of a shower or thunderstorm. Warm and humid.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 30% / SE MO ~ 40% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 40% / South IL ~ 40% / West KY ~ 40% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 40% / NW TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the rain: Mostly before midnight.
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 72° to 74° / SE MO 72° to 74° / South IL 72° to 74° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 72° to 74° / West KY 72° to 74° / NW TN 72° to 74°
Wind direction and speed: South southwest 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 72° to 75°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Locally heavy rain where storms occur.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No. Check the weather radars.
Moonrise: 10:17 PM
Moonset: 8:30 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous

July 27, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Tuesday Forecast: Partly cloudy. Hot and muggy. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 20% / SE MO ~ 20% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 20% / South IL ~ 20% / West KY ~ 20% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 20% / NW TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time. Highest chances will be during the PM hours.
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 93° to 96° / SE MO 94° to 96° / South IL 92° to 95° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 90° to 94° / West KY 90° to 94° / NW TN 90° to 94°
Wind direction and speed: South southwest 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 98° to 102°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Locally heavy downpours where thunderstorms occur.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No. Check the radars.
UV Index: 10. Very high
Sunrise: 5:56 AM
Sunset: 8:07 PM
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Tuesday night Forecast: Partly cloudy. A chance of a shower or thunderstorm. Warm and humid.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 20% / SE MO ~ 20% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 20% / South IL ~ 20% / West KY ~ 20% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 20% / NW TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered
Timing of the rain: Mostly before midnight.
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 72° to 74° / SE MO 72° to 74° / South IL 72° to 74° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 72° to 74° / West KY 72° to 74° / NW TN 72° to 74°
Wind direction and speed: South southwest 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 72° to 75°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No. Check the weather radars.
Moonrise: 10:45 PM
Moonset: 9:35 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous

July 28, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Wednesday Forecast: Partly cloudy. Hot and muggy. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 20% / SE MO ~ 20% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 20% / South IL ~ 20% / West KY ~ 20% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 20% / NW TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time. Highest chances will be during the PM hours.
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 93° to 96° / SE MO 94° to 96° / South IL 92° to 95° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 90° to 94° / West KY 90° to 94° / NW TN 90° to 94°
Wind direction and speed: South southwest 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 98° to 102°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Locally heavy downpours where thunderstorms occur.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No. Check the radars.
UV Index: 10. Very high
Sunrise: 5:57 AM
Sunset: 8:06 PM
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Wednesday night Forecast: Partly cloudy. A chance of a shower or thunderstorm. Warm and humid.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 20% / SE MO ~ 20% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 20% / South IL ~ 20% / West KY ~ 20% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 20% / NW TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered
Timing of the rain: Mostly before midnight.
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 72° to 74° / SE MO 72° to 74° / South IL 72° to 74° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 72° to 74° / West KY 72° to 74° / NW TN 72° to 74°
Wind direction and speed: South southwest 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 72° to 75°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No. Check the weather radars.
Moonrise: 11:10 PM
Moonset: 10:38 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous

These graphics are changed out between 10:00 AM and 11:00 AM (Monday through Friday only)

Double click on the images to enlarge them.

Click the images to enlarge them.

Click images to enlarge them. Wednesday graphics.

Graphic-cast

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Illinois

During active weather check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page.

Kentucky

During active weather check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page.

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.Tennessee

During active weather check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page.

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Today through July 25th: Widespread organized severe thunderstorms are currently not anticipated.

A few thunderstorms, over the coming week, could produce isolated high wind gusts. Typical for the Month of July. I will monitor the potential of MCS’s (thunderstorm complexes). If a complex does form then updated severe weather forecasts will be necessary.

Today’s outlook (below).

Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.

Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.

One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.

A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter size hail, and/or a tornado.

The tan states are simply a region that SPC outlined on this particular map. Just ignore that.

The black outline is our local area.

Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook.

The images below are from the WPC. Their totals are a bit lower than our current forecast. I wanted to show you the comparison.

24-hour precipitation outlook.
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48-hour precipitation outlook.
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72-hour precipitation outlook.
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Weather Discussion

1. Smoky sky conditions.
2. Monitor shower and thunderstorm chances into next week.

Weather advice:

Temperatures will be rising over the coming days. Use care if you must work outside.

Weather Discussion

It is just a tad smoky outside! Notice all the “clouds’ in the sky? The red moon. The red sunsets. Those are the result of widespread wildfires in the Pacific Northwest and Canada. The smoke is moving into our region from the northwest.

There were reports of people able to smell the wildfires across much of Illinois.

The issue with the wildfires will continue into the autumn months. We will frequently be able to see the smoke.

The smoke may shave one to three degrees off of afternoon highs.

Either way, it is going to be hot and humid over the coming days. Increasing temperatures and increasing dew points will make it fell like July. Hazy, hot, and humid. The three H’s!

We will occasionally have some cumulus clouds. High pressure, however, will cap the atmosphere and prevent thunderstorms from forming today and tomorrow.

Let’s take a look at the July precipitation, thus far. We do have wet conditions across much of our region. Drought remains to our north and west.

Green is wetter than average.

I am watching Friday into next week for occasional thunderstorm chances. Any thunderstorms that form could produce very heavy rain and gusty winds. Typical for the Month of July. There will be plenty of energy in the atmosphere for thunderstorms. What will be lacking will be wind shear.

Wind shear is one ingredient when it comes to thunderstorm forecasting. Wind shear helps sustain storms and produce severe thunderstorms.

Without wind shear, you have slow moving thunderstorms that can drop an inch of rain in 15 minutes.

Peak thunderstorm chances should be Friday, Sunday, and Monday.

I will keep an eye out for MCS activity. MCS’s are thunderstorm complexes that are common during the summer months. They are actually responsible for most of our summer rains.

An MCS is a bit more organized that just a few pop-up heat of the day thunderstorms. MCS’s can track across several states and produce widespread rain.

I am monitoring Monday for an MCS.

MCS’s are difficult to forecast more than 12 to 24-hours out. Thus, monitor updates in case we have to deal with a thunderstorm complex.

These complexes can also increase the risk of severe weather.

For the time being, I am simply monitoring the chance.

You can see some energy diving in from the northwest Monday. This is the 500 mb vorticity map. I am looking for areas of red. That indicates lift.

Again, it is a bit early to forecast an MCS. Something worth monitoring.

You can also see some potential of thunderstorm complexes towards the middle of next week.

This is the 24-hour rain totals. You can track the storms. IF this is correct, then we will have some additional thunderstorm chances next week.

Date-stamp upper left.

A heat dome will set up shop over our region today into next week, as well. The center of that heat dome will be where you will find temperatures at or above 100 degrees.

The center of the dome should remain to our west. That will keep the severe heat out of our local area. It will still be quite warm/hot. It just won’t be as hot as it could be.

You might remember everyone talking about the Pacific Northwest and Canadian heat dome a few weeks ago. It produced record high temperatures over a large chunk of real estate.

You can see the GFS is forecasting some extreme heat across portions of the Northern Plains and Central United States.

July 23rd

July 26th

July 28th

August 1st

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Again, as a reminder, these are models. They are never 100% accurate. Take the general idea from them.

What should I take from these?

The general idea and not specifics. Models usually do well with the generalities.
The time-stamp is located in the upper left corner.
The EC European weather model is in Zulu time.

What am I looking at?
You are looking at different models. Meteorologists use many different models to forecast the weather. All models are wrong. Some are more wrong than others. Meteorologists have to make a forecast based on the guidance/models.

I show you these so you can see what the different models are showing as far as precipitation. If most of the models agree, then the confidence in the final weather forecast increases.

You can see my final forecast at the top of the page.

This animation is the Storm Prediction Center WRF model.

This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.