July 20, 2021. Beau’s subscriber’s weather blog update. Not a subscriber? Go to www.weathertalk.com/welcome Once subscribed, download the WeatherTalk app in the app store

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7-day forecast for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.

This is a BLEND for the region. See the detailed region by region forecast further down in this post.

THE FORECAST IS GOING TO VARY FROM LOCATON TO LOCATION.

SEE THE DAILY DETAILS (REGION BY REGION) FURTHER DOWN IN THIS BLOG UPDATE.

48-hour forecast

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Tuesday to Tuesday

1. Is lightning in the forecast? Yes. A low chance Wednesday over SE IL and NW KY. Then, a chance of lightning Thursday, Friday, Saturday, Sunday, Monday, and Tuesday.

2. Are severe thunderstorms in the forecast? Unlikely. Monitor updates. Summer thunderstorms can occasionally produce isolated wind damage. Widespread severe weather appears unlikely.

The NWS officially defines a severe thunderstorm as a storm with 58 mph wind or greater, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes

3. Is flash flooding in the forecast? Monitor. Recent heavy rainfall has saturated the ground. Locally heavy rain will be possible with thunderstorms later this week. Monitor updates concerning the risk of flash flooding.

4. Will the heat index top 100 degrees? Yes. Mainly Friday through Sunday. This will partially depend on cloud cover. Some locations could hit the middle to upper 90s for actual air temperatures later this week. Heat index values would, of course, be higher.

5. Will the wind chill dip below 10 degrees above zero? No.

6. Will there be accumulating snow and ice in the forecast? No.

July 20, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High confidence
Tuesday Forecast: Mostly sunny. Haze and smoke from the Canadian wildfires. A few passing clouds. Warm. There may be an isolated thunderstorms south of the Hopkinsville area. More likely in Tennessee vs Kentucky.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 10% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 84° to 88° / SE MO 84° to 88° / South IL 84° to 88° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 84° to 88° / West KY 84° to 88° / NW TN 84° to 88°
Wind direction and speed: North northeast 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 84° to 88°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 10. Very high
Sunrise: 5:50 AM
Sunset: 8:13 PM
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Tuesday night Forecast: Mostly clear. Mild.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 64° to 68° / SE MO 64° to 68° / South IL 64° to 68° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 64° to 68° / West KY 64° to 68° / NW TN 64° to 70°
Wind direction and speed: Northerly winds 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 64° to 68°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 5:11 PM
Moonset: 2:10 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous

July 21, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High confidence
Wednesday Forecast: Mostly sunny. Warm. A few PM clouds over southeast Illinois and western Kentucky.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 10% / South IL ~ 10% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 10% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None for most of the region. I did add an isolated chance near the IL/IN state line.
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 88° to 92° / SE MO 88° to 92° / South IL 86° to 90° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 86° to 90° / West KY 86° to 90° / NW TN 86° to 90°
Wind direction and speed: Northerly at 5 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 90° to 94°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 10. Very high
Sunrise: 5:51 AM
Sunset: 8:12 PM
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Wednesday night Forecast: Mostly clear. Mild.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 68° to 70° / SE MO 68° to 70° / South IL 68° to 70° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 66° to 70° / West KY 68° to 70° / NW TN 68° to 70°
Wind direction and speed:
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 68° to 70°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 6:23 PM
Moonset: 2:58 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous

July 22, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High confidence
Thursday Forecast: Partly sunny. Hot. A chance of a thunderstorm.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 20% / SE MO ~ 20% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 20% / South IL ~ 20% / West KY ~ 30% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 20% / NW TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered. The chance is slightly higher over our southern counties vs northern.
Timing of the rain: After 12 PM
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 88° to 92° / SE MO 88° to 92° / South IL 88° to 92° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 88° to 92° / West KY 88° to 92° / NW TN 88° to 92°
Wind direction and speed: South southwest 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 94° to 98°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No. Check the weather radars.
UV Index: 10. Very high
Sunrise: 5:52 AM
Sunset: 8:11 PM
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Thursday night Forecast: Partly cloudy. A chance of a shower or thunderstorm.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 10% / SE MO ~ 10% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 10% / South IL ~ 10% / West KY ~ 10% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 10% / NW TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time.
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 70° to 72° / SE MO 70° to 72° / South IL 70° to 72° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 70° to 72° / West KY 70° to 72° / NW TN 70° to 72°
Wind direction and speed: South southwest wind 5 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 70° to 72°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None for most. Isolated wet roadway. Isolated lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No. Check the radars.
Moonrise: 7:27 PM
Moonset: 3:55 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous

July 23, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Friday Forecast: Partly sunny. Hot. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 30% / SE MO ~ 30% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 30% / South IL ~ 30% / West KY ~ 40% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 40% / NW TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time. Highest coverage during the PM hours vs the AM hours.
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 88° to 94° / SE MO 88° to 94° / South IL 88° to 92° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 88° to 92° / West KY 88° to 92° / NW TN 88° to 92°
Wind direction and speed: Southwest 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 90° to 96°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No. Check the weather radars.
UV Index: 10. Very high
Sunrise: 5:53 AM
Sunset: 8:11 PM
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Friday night Forecast: Mostly clear. Warm. A thunderstorm is possible.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 20% / SE MO ~ 20% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 20% / South IL ~ 20% / West KY ~ 20% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 20% / NW TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the rain: Mainly before 12 AM
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 70° to 75° / SE MO 70° to 75° / South IL 70° to 75° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 70° to 75° / West KY 70° to 75° / NW TN 70° to 75°
Wind direction and speed: South southwest 5 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 70° to 75°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No. Check the radars.
Moonrise: 8:23 PM
Moonset: 5:01 AM
The phase of the moon: Full

July 24, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Saturday Forecast: Partly to mostly sunny. Hot. A slight chance of a shower or thunderstorm.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 20% / SE MO ~ 20% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 20% / South IL ~ 20% / West KY ~ 20% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 20% / NW TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered
Timing of the rain: Mostly during the afternoon
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 90° to 94° / SE MO 90° to 94° / South IL 90° to 94° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 88° to 94° / West KY 88° to 94° / NW TN 88° to 94°
Wind direction and speed: South southwest 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 90° to 95°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Isolated wet roadways. Isolated lightning. Locally heavy downpours where thunderstorms occur.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No. Check the radars.
UV Index: 10. Very high
Sunrise: 5:54 AM
Sunset: 8:10 PM
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Saturday night Forecast: Partly cloudy. A slight chance of a thunderstorm.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 20% / SE MO ~ 20% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 20% / South IL ~ 20% / West KY ~ 20% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 20% / NW TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered
Timing of the rain: Mostly before midnight
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 72° to 75° / SE MO 72° to 74° / South IL 72° to 74° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 72° to 74° / West KY 72° to 74° / NW TN 72° to 74°
Wind direction and speed: South southwest 4 to 8 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 72° to 74°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No. Check the weather radars.
Moonrise: 9:08 PM
Moonset: 6:11 AM
The phase of the moon: Full

July 25, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Sunday Forecast: Partly cloudy. A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Warm and humid.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 30% / SE MO ~ 30% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 30% / South IL ~ 30% / West KY ~ 30% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 30% / NW TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered
Timing of the rain: Mostly during the afternoon
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 92° to 94° / SE MO 92° to 95° / South IL 92° to 95° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 90° to 94° / West KY 90° to 94° / NW TN 90° to 94°
Wind direction and speed: South southwest 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 92° to 96°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Locally heavy downpours where thunderstorms occur.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No. Check the radars.
UV Index: 10. Very high
Sunrise: 5:54 AM
Sunset: 8:09 PM
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Sunday night Forecast: Partly cloudy. A chance of a shower or thunderstorm.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 20% / SE MO ~ 20% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 20% / South IL ~ 20% / West KY ~ 20% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 20% / NW TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered
Timing of the rain: Mostly before midnight.
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 70° to 74° / SE MO 70° to 74° / South IL 70° to 74° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 70° to 74° / West KY 70° to 74° / NW TN 70° to 74°
Wind direction and speed: South southwest 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 70° to 74°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No. Check the weather radars.
Moonrise: 9:45 PM
Moonset: 7:21 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous

July 26, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Monday Forecast: Partly cloudy. A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Warm and humid.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 30% / SE MO ~ 30% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 30% / South IL ~ 30% / West KY ~ 30% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 30% / NW TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered
Timing of the rain: Mostly during the afternoon
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 93° to 96° / SE MO 94° to 96° / South IL 92° to 95° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 90° to 94° / West KY 90° to 94° / NW TN 90° to 94°
Wind direction and speed: South southwest 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 92° to 96°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Locally heavy downpours where thunderstorms occur.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No. Check the radars.
UV Index: 10. Very high
Sunrise: 5:55 AM
Sunset: 8:08 PM
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Monday night Forecast: Partly cloudy. A chance of a shower or thunderstorm.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 20% / SE MO ~ 20% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 20% / South IL ~ 20% / West KY ~ 20% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 20% / NW TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered
Timing of the rain: Mostly before midnight.
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 70° to 74° / SE MO 70° to 74° / South IL 70° to 74° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 70° to 74° / West KY 70° to 74° / NW TN 70° to 74°
Wind direction and speed: South southwest 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 70° to 74°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No. Check the weather radars.
Moonrise: 10:17 PM
Moonset: 8:30 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous

These graphics are changed out between 10:00 AM and 11:00 AM (Monday through Friday only)

Double click on the images to enlarge them.

Click the images to enlarge them.

Click images to enlarge them. These are the Tuesday updates.

Graphic-cast

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Illinois

During active weather check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page.

Kentucky

During active weather check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page.

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.Tennessee

During active weather check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page.

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Today through July 28th: Widespread organized severe thunderstorms are currently not anticipated. A few thunderstorms, over the coming week, could produce isolated high wind gusts. Typical for the Month of July. I will monitor the potential of MCS’s (thunderstorm complexes). If a complex does form then updated severe weather forecasts will be necessary.

Today’s outlook (below).

Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.

Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.

One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.

A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter size hail, and/or a tornado.

The tan states are simply a region that SPC outlined on this particular map. Just ignore that.

The black outline is our local area.

Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook.

The images below are from the WPC. Their totals are a bit lower than our current forecast. I wanted to show you the comparison.

24-hour precipitation outlook.
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48-hour precipitation outlook.
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72-hour precipitation outlook.
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Weather Discussion

1. Fairly calm weather over the coming days.
2. Shower and thunderstorm chances increase later this week into next week.
3. Monitor the risk of heavy rain.

Weather advice:

Temperatures will be rising over the coming days. Use care if you must work outside.

Weather Discussion

Canadian wildfires will cause some hazy sky conditions into the summer and autumn. We may have “sunny” days with smoke and haze.

Well, all in all, we are in a fairly typical July pattern. Warm to hot and humid.

We will see a slow uptick in temperatures through the weekend. As a matter of fact, some of the data shows middle to upper 90s this weekend over at least southeast Missouri and southwest Illinois.

That will partly depend on cloud cover.

Speaking of cloud cover! We will have plenty of sunshine today into tomorrow.

There will be a disturbance to our south/southeast today. That could mean a few puffy clouds near the Hopkinsville area later today. It appears the chance of thunderstorms will stay in Tennessee. I will keep an eye on radars. Either way, the vast majority of the region will be dry today. Warm. Humid from recent rains.

A cold front will push into southwest Indiana Wednesday. This front could spark a shower or thunderstorm over southwest Indiana tomorrow. Whether one or two of those spread into southeast Illinois and western Kentucky is questionable. I added a very low chance of that happening to the forecast.

The vast majority of the region will again remain dry Wednesday and Wednesday night.

Moisture levels begin to increase Thursday into the weekend. You will notice daily chances of showers and thunderstorms.

At this time, it appears the peak chances will be Friday, Sunday, and Monday. Thursday and Saturday will deliver widely scattered chances.

The only fly in the ointment, as they say, will be MCS’s. You see me mention MCS’s quite often. An MCS is a thunderstorm complex. They are actually responsible for most of our summer rain events.

An MCS will create higher storm coverage with higher rain totals. Thus, we will need to watch for any MCS development.

MCS’s are difficult to predict more than 12 to 24-hours in advance.

Monitor update if you have outdoor plans later this week.

MCS’s would crease heavy rain and some strong wind gusts. Again, monitor updates moving forward.

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Again, as a reminder, these are models. They are never 100% accurate. Take the general idea from them.

What should I take from these?

The general idea and not specifics. Models usually do well with the generalities.
The time-stamp is located in the upper left corner.
The EC European weather model is in Zulu time.

What am I looking at?
You are looking at different models. Meteorologists use many different models to forecast the weather. All models are wrong. Some are more wrong than others. Meteorologists have to make a forecast based on the guidance/models.

I show you these so you can see what the different models are showing as far as precipitation. If most of the models agree, then the confidence in the final weather forecast increases.

You can see my final forecast at the top of the page.

This animation is the Storm Prediction Center WRF model.

This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.