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Click one of the links below to take you directly to that section.
Do you have any suggestions or comments? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
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7-day forecast for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.
This is a blend for the region. See the detailed region by region forecast further down in this post.
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Thursday through Thursday
1. Is lightning in the forecast? Yes. A few thunderstorms are possible over the coming days. Coverage will be nothing like recent days. .
2. Are severe thunderstorms in the forecast? Low risk. Thunderstorms could produce isolated wind damage.
* The NWS officially defines a severe thunderstorm as a storm with 58 mph wind or greater, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
3. Is flash flooding in the forecast? Low-risk. Slow moving storms will produce heavy rain. The rain will not be as widespread as recent days. That is the good news.
4. Will there be a chance of a frost or freeze? No.
5. Will the heat index exceed 100 degrees? Possible. All of the moisture in the ground and air will make it feel quite muggy. Heat index values may approach 100 this weekend and next week.
6. Will the wet-bulb globe temperature reach caution or danger levels? Yes.
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Thursday WBGT (F): 81° Take 15 minute breaks each hour of working or exercising in direct sunlight.
Friday WBGT (F): 82° Take 15 minute breaks each hour of working or exercising in direct sunlight.
Saturday WBGT (F): 82° Take 15 minute breaks each hour of working or exercising in direct sunlight.
Sunday WBGT (F): 83° Take 15 minute breaks each hour of working or exercising in direct sunlight.
Monday WBGT (F): 83° Take 15 minute breaks each hour of working or exercising in direct sunlight.
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The WetBulb Globe Temperature (WBGT) is a measure of the heat stress in direct sunlight, which takes into account: temperature, humidity, wind speed, sun angle and cloud cover (solar radiation).
This differs from the heat index, which takes into consideration temperature and humidity and is calculated for shady areas.
If you work or exercise in direct sunlight, this is a good element to monitor.
Sports coaches, schools, military agencies, OSHA, and many nations use the WBGT as a guide to managing workload in direct sunlight.
Something wrong on the page? Suggestions? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
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July 2, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Thursday Forecast: AM fog. Some of the fog may be dense. Partly sunny. Warm and humid. Isolated thunderstorms. Warm and humid.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30% IL ~ 30% KY ~ 20% TN ~20%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 88° to 94° SE MO 88° to 92° South IL 88° to 92° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 88° to 92° West KY 88° to 92° NW TN 88° to 92°
Wind direction and speed: East wind 6 to 12 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 92° to 96°
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated to widely scattered
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Locally heavy rain. Gusty wind near storms.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars.
UV Index: 9 to 10. Very high.
Sunrise: 5:39 AM
Sunset: 8:20 PM
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Thursday night Forecast: Partly cloudy. An isolated thunderstorm.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 20% TN ~ 20%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 70° to 74° SE MO 70° to 74° South IL 70° to 74° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 70° to 74° West KY 70° to 74° NW TN 70° to 74°
Wind direction and speed: South at 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 70° to 75°
Coverage of precipitation: Most likely isolated.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways and lightning. Locally heavy rain where thunderstorms occur. Typical of June storms.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars.
Moonrise: 6:04 PM
Moonset: 3:21 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous
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July 3, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Friday Forecast: Partly to mostly sunny. Hot and humid. Isolated thunderstorms. Warm and humid.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 10% TN ~10%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 88° to 94° SE MO 88° to 92° South IL 88° to 92° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 88° to 92° West KY 88° to 92° NW TN 88° to 92°
Wind direction and speed: Northeast at 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 86° to 94°
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Isolated wet roadways, lightning, heavy rain, and gusty wind.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates and radars.
UV Index: 9 to 10. Very high.
Sunrise: 5:39 AM
Sunset: 8:20 PM
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Friday night Forecast: Partly cloudy. Warm.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 10% IL ~ 10% KY ~ 10% TN ~ 10%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 70° to 74° SE MO 70° to 74° South IL 70° to 74° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 70° to 74° West KY 70° to 74° NW TN 70° to 74°
Wind direction and speed: South at 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 70° to 75°
Coverage of precipitation: Most likely none
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Most likely none
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 7:11 PM
Moonset: 4:06 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous
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July 4, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Saturday Forecast: Partly to mostly sunny. Warm and humid. An isolated thunderstorm will be possible. Most of the area will remain dry.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 15% IL ~ 15% KY ~ 10% TN ~10%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 88° to 94° SE MO 88° to 92° South IL 88° to 92° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 88° to 92° West KY 88° to 92° NW TN 88° to 92°
Wind direction and speed: Northeast at 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 88° to 94°
Coverage of precipitation: None to isolated
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Isolated wet roadways, lightning, heavy rain, and gusty wind.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars
UV Index: 9 to 10. Very high.
Sunrise: 5:39 AM
Sunset: 8:20 PM
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Saturday night Forecast: Partly cloudy. Warm and humid.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 10% IL ~ 10% KY ~ 10% TN ~10%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 70° to 74° SE MO 70° to 74° South IL 70° to 74° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 70° to 74° West KY 70° to 74° NW TN 70° to 74°
Wind direction and speed: Northeast at 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 70° to 75°
Coverage of precipitation: Most likely none.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Most likely none
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 8:13 PM
Moonset: 4:57 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous
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July 5, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Sunday Forecast: Partly to mostly sunny. Hot and humid. An isolated thunderstorm will be possible. Most of the area will remain dry.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 20% TN ~20%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 88° to 94° SE MO 88° to 92° South IL 88° to 92° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 88° to 92° West KY 88° to 92° NW TN 88° to 92°
Wind direction and speed: East and southeast at 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 88° to 96°
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Isolated wet roadways, lightning, heavy rain, and gusty wind.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates and radars.
UV Index: 9 to 10. Very high.
Sunrise: 5:40 AM
Sunset: 8:19 PM
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Sunday night Forecast: Partly cloudy. Warm and humid.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 5% IL ~ 5% KY ~ 5% TN ~ 5%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 70° to 74° SE MO 70° to 74° South IL 70° to 74° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 70° to 74° West KY 70° to 74° NW TN 70° to 74°
Wind direction and speed: East at 5 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 70° to 75°
Coverage of precipitation: Most likely none
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 9:07 PM
Moonset: 5:54 AM
The phase of the moon: Full moon
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July 6, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Monday Forecast: Partly to mostly sunny. Hot and humid. Widely scattered thunderstorms will be possible. Typical summer weather.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30% IL ~ 30% KY ~ 30% TN ~ 30%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 90° to 94° SE MO 90° to 94° South IL 90° to 92° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 90° to 92° West KY 90° to 92° NW TN 90° to 94°
Wind direction and speed: Light and variable wind direction at less than 10 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 95° to 100°
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways, lightning, heavy rain, and gusty wind.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates and radars.
UV Index: 10. Very high.
Sunrise: 5:41 AM
Sunset: 8:19 PM
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Monday night Forecast: A few clouds. An isolated thunderstorm.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 20% TN ~ 20%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 70° to 74° SE MO 70° to 74° South IL 70° to 74° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 70° to 74° West KY 70° to 74° NW TN 70° to 74°
Wind direction and speed: Light wind.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 70° to 75°
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Isolated wet roadways, lightning, heavy rain, and gusty wind.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 9:53 PM
Moonset: 6:56 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous
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July 7, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Tuesday Forecast: Partly to mostly sunny. Hot and humid. Widely scattered thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30% IL ~ 30% KY ~ 30% TN ~ 30%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 88° to 92° SE MO 88° to 92° South IL 88° to 92° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 88° to 92° West KY 88° to 92° NW TN 88° to 92°
Wind direction and speed: Light southerly wind. Wind speed less than 10 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 95° to 100°
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Locally heavy rain. Gusty wind near storms.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates and radars.
UV Index: 10. Very high.
Sunrise: 5:41 AM
Sunset: 8:19 PM
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Tuesday night Forecast: A few clouds. An isolated thunderstorm will again be possible. Typical summer weather.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 20% TN ~ 20%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 70° to 74° SE MO 70° to 74° South IL 70° to 74° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 70° to 74° West KY 70° to 74° NW TN 70° to 74°
Wind direction and speed: South and southwest at 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 70° to 75°
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Locally heavy rain. Gusty wind near storms.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars.
Moonrise: 10:32 PM
Moonset: 7:58 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous
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July 8, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Wednesday Forecast: Partly to mostly sunny. Hot and humid. Widely scattered.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30% IL ~ 30% KY ~ 30% TN ~ 30%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 88° to 92° SE MO 88° to 92° South IL 88° to 92° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 88° to 92° West KY 88° to 92° NW TN 88° to 92°
Wind direction and speed: South and southwest at 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 95° to 100°
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Locally heavy rain. Gusty wind near storms.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates and radars.
UV Index: 10. Very high.
Sunrise: 5:42 AM
Sunset: 8:19 PM
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Wednesday night Forecast: A few clouds. Warm and humid. An isolated thunderstorm will again be possible. Typical summer weather.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~20% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 20% TN ~ 20%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 70° to 74° SE MO 70° to 74° South IL 70° to 74° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 70° to 74° West KY 70° to 74° NW TN 70° to 74°
Wind direction and speed: South and southwest at 4 to 8 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 70° to 75°
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Locally heavy rain. Gusty wind near storms.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars.
Moonrise: 11:05 PM
Moonset: 9:00 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous
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July 9, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Thursday Forecast: Partly to mostly sunny. Hot and humid. Scattered thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30% IL ~ 30% KY ~ 30% TN ~ 30%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 88° to 92° SE MO 88° to 92° South IL 88° to 92° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 88° to 92° West KY 88° to 92° NW TN 88° to 92°
Wind direction and speed: South and southwest at 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 95° to 100°
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Locally heavy rain. Gusty wind near storms.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates and radars.
UV Index: 10. Very high.
Sunrise: 5:42 AM
Sunset: 8:18 PM
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Thursday night Forecast: A few clouds. Warm and humid. Isolated evening thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~20% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 20% TN ~ 20%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 70° to 74° SE MO 70° to 74° South IL 70° to 74° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 70° to 74° West KY 70° to 74° NW TN 70° to 74°
Wind direction and speed: South and southwest at 4 to 8 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 70° to 75°
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Locally heavy rain. Gusty wind near storms.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars.
Moonrise: 11:34 PM
Moonset: 10:01 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous
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July 10, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Friday Forecast: Partly to mostly sunny. Hot and humid. Widely scattered thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30% IL ~ 30% KY ~ 30% TN ~ 30%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 90° to 94° SE MO 90° to 94° South IL 90° to 92° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 90° to 92° West KY 90° to 92° NW TN 90° to 94°
Wind direction and speed: South and southwest at 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 95° to 100°
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Locally heavy rain. Gusty wind near storms.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates and radars.
UV Index: 10. Very high.
Sunrise: 5:43 AM
Sunset: 8:18 PM
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Friday night Forecast: A few clouds. Warm and humid. Isolated evening thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~30% IL ~ 30% KY ~ 30% TN ~ 30%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 70° to 74° SE MO 70° to 74° South IL 70° to 74° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 70° to 74° West KY 70° to 74° NW TN 70° to 74°
Wind direction and speed: South and southwest at 4 to 8 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 70° to 75°
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Locally heavy rain. Gusty wind near storms.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars.
Moonrise: 11:59 PM
Moonset: 10:59 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous
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July 11, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Saturday Forecast: Partly to mostly sunny. Hot and humid. Scattered thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30% IL ~ 30% KY ~ 30% TN ~ 30%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 90° to 94° SE MO 90° to 94° South IL 90° to 92° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 90° to 92° West KY 90° to 92° NW TN 90° to 94°
Wind direction and speed: Southwest at 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 95° to 100°
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Locally heavy rain. Gusty wind near storms.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates and radars.
UV Index: 10. Very high.
Sunrise: 5:44 AM
Sunset: 8:17 PM
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Saturday night Forecast: A few clouds. Warm and humid. A chance of scattered thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~30% IL ~ 30% KY ~ 30% TN ~ 30%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 70° to 74° SE MO 70° to 74° South IL 70° to 74° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 70° to 74° West KY 70° to 74° NW TN 70° to 74°
Wind direction and speed: Southwest at 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 70° to 75°
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Locally heavy rain. Gusty wind near storms.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars.
Moonrise: 12:00 AM
Moonset: 11:57 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous
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July 12, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Sunday Forecast: Partly to mostly sunny. Hot and humid. Scattered thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30% IL ~ 30% KY ~ 30% TN ~ 30%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 90° to 94° SE MO 90° to 94° South IL 90° to 92° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 90° to 92° West KY 90° to 92° NW TN 90° to 94°
Wind direction and speed: Southwest at 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 95° to 100°
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Locally heavy rain. Gusty wind near storms.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates and radars.
UV Index: 10. Very high.
Sunrise: 5:44 AM
Sunset: 8:17 PM
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Sunday night Forecast: A few clouds. Warm and humid. A chance of scattered thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~30% IL ~ 30% KY ~ 30% TN ~ 30%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 70° to 74° SE MO 70° to 74° South IL 70° to 74° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 70° to 74° West KY 70° to 74° NW TN 70° to 74°
Wind direction and speed: Southwest at 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 70° to 75°
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Locally heavy rain. Gusty wind near storms.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars.
Moonrise: 12:26 AM
Moonset: 12:53 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous
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July 13, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Monday Forecast: Partly to mostly sunny. Hot and humid. Scattered thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30% IL ~ 30% KY ~ 30% TN ~ 30%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 90° to 94° SE MO 90° to 94° South IL 90° to 92° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 90° to 92° West KY 90° to 92° NW TN 90° to 94°
Wind direction and speed: Southwest at 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 95° to 100°
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Locally heavy rain. Gusty wind near storms.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates and radars.
UV Index: 10. Very high.
Sunrise: 5:42 AM
Sunset: 8:19 PM
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Monday night Forecast: A few clouds. Warm and humid. A chance of scattered thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~30% IL ~ 30% KY ~ 30% TN ~ 30%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 70° to 74° SE MO 70° to 74° South IL 70° to 74° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 70° to 74° West KY 70° to 74° NW TN 70° to 74°
Wind direction and speed: Southwest at 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 70° to 75°
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Locally heavy rain. Gusty wind near storms.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars.
Moonrise:
Moonset:
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous
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What is the UV index?
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- Muggy heat.
- A few thunderstorms.
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Click to enlarge the graphics.
Remember, this is an average across our local area. The county by county will vary. See the detailed forecast above for each area.
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Click graphics to enlarge them.
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These are dates that may have precipitation. Monitor the trends in the forecast.
Anything past day seven is low confidence.
This graphic will return next week
Graphic-cast
Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
Illinois
During active weather check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page.
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Kentucky
During active weather check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page.
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Tennessee
During active weather check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page.
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Today through July 6th: The main concern will be lightning and gusty wind. Heavy rain. Most of the storms will remain below severe levels. Isolated wind damage. Storm coverage today through Monday will be dramatically less than recent days.
Today’s outlook (below).
Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.
Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.
One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.
A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter size hail, and/or a tornado.
The tan states are simply a region that SPC outlined on this particular map. Just ignore that.
The black outline is our local area.
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Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook.
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The images below are from the WPC. Their totals are a bit lower than our current forecast. I wanted to show you the comparison.
24-hour precipitation outlook.
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48-hour precipitation outlook.
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72-hour precipitation outlook.
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Weather advice:
Updated July 2, 2020
Isolated thunderstorms over the coming days will produce downpours, gusty wind, and lightning. Storm coverage today through Monday will be DRAMATICALLY less than recent days. That is the good news for those who have been dealing with flash flooding.
Heat index values today through Monday will rise into the 90s. Muggy weather.
Download the Beau Dodson Weather Talk app from the app store. Search for Weather Talk by the Fire Horn. Download it. Install it. It is for subscribers. Not a subscriber? Go to www.weathertalk.com/welcome
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Weather Discussion
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- Warm and muggy weather into the holiday weekend.
- A few more storms are possible but not as widespread as recent days.
Woosh. It rained and rained!
Many locations experienced flash flooding over the past few days. Several reporting stations received in excess of TEN inches of rain!
There were widespread one to five inch reports.
I was in Murray, Kentucky, and it rained over two inches in thirty minutes. That is an impressive number.
The good news is that thunderstorm chances today through Monday will be dramatically less than recent days. Isolated thunderstorms.
The coverage will be a bit more today and tonight across southeast Missouri vs the rest of the region.
The bigger news today through Monday will be high temperatures in the upper 80s to lower 90s. Dew points will remain in the upper 60s and 70s.
That means that it will feel muggy outside. Use care if you must work outdoors. Take breaks. Use common sense, as always.
Happy Fourth of July weekend!
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Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
Again, as a reminder, these are models. They are never 100% accurate. Take the general idea from them.
What should I take from these?
- The general idea and not specifics. Models usually do well with the generalities.
- The time-stamp is located in the upper left corner.
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What am I looking at?
You are looking at different models. Meteorologists use many different models to forecast the weather. All models are wrong. Some are more wrong than others. Meteorologists have to make a forecast based on the guidance/models.
I show you these so you can see what the different models are showing as far as precipitation. If most of the models agree, then the confidence in the final weather forecast increases.
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This animation is the Hrrr model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Green is rain. Blue is snow. Pink and red represent sleet and freezing rain.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
This animation is the SPC WRF model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Green is rain. Blue is snow. Pink and red represent sleet and freezing rain.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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This animation is the 3K American Model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Green is rain. Blue is snow. Pink and red represent sleet and freezing rain.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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This next animation is the NAM American Model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Green is rain. Blue is snow. Pink and red represent sleet and freezing rain.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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This next animation is the GFS American Model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Green is rain. Blue is snow. Pink and red represent sleet and freezing rain.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
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Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 84 degrees.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 73 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.00″ to 1.20″
Yellow and orange colors are above average temperatures. Red is much above average. Light blue and blue are below-average temperatures. Green to purple colors represents much below-average temperatures.
This outlook covers July 2nd through July 8th
Click on the image to expand it.
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The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF AVERAGE. Brown is below average. Green is above average. Blue is much above average.
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Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 76 degrees
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.00″ to 1.20″
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This outlook covers July 9th through July 15th
Click on the image to expand it.
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The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF AVERAGE. For example, if your average rainfall is 1.00″ and the graphic shows 25%, then that would mean 0.25″ of rain is anticipated.
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EC = Equal chances of above or below average
BN= Below average
M/BN = Much below average
AN = Above average
M/AN = Much above average
E/AN = Extremely above average
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 69 degrees
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.70″ to 2.20″
This outlook covers July 14th through July 27th
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Precipitation outlook
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LONG RANGE DISCUSSION
Key Points: This was written by the BAMwx team. I don’t edit it.
Click to enlarge all of the images below
These graphics are updated Monday through Friday between 8:30 AM and 9:30 AM.
NOTE: These may not be updated on Saturday and Sunday.
Click the image below to enlarge it.
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Summer outlook
Click to enlarge it. Then, you can read it better.
June through August
Temperature departures
Precipitation
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June temperature departures
Click on the images to enlarge them
Precipitation outlook
July temperature departures
Click on the images to enlarge them
July Precipitation
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Great news! The videos are now found in your Weathertalk app and on the WeatherTalk website.
These are bonus videos for subscribers.
The app is for subscribers. Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com/welcome then go to your app store and search for WeatherTalk
Subscribers, PLEASE USE THE APP. ATT and Verizon are not reliable during severe weather. They are delaying text messages.
The app is under WeatherTalk in the app store.
Apple users click here
Android users click here
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Radar Link: Interactive local city-view radars & regional radars.
You will find clickable warning and advisory buttons on the local city-view radars.
If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.
Not working? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.
Storm Prediction Center. Click here.
Weather Prediction Center. Click here.
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Live lightning data: Click here.
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Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.
GOES 16 slider tool. Click here.
College of Dupage satellites. Click here
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Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.
Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.
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