July 1, 2020. Beau’s subscriber’s weather blog update. Not a subscriber? Go to www.weathertalk.com/welcome Once subscribed, download the WeatherTalk app in the app store

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7-day forecast for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.

This is a blend for the region. See the detailed region by region forecast further down in this post.

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Wednesday through Wednesday

1. Is lightning in the forecast? Yes. Lightning chances will be with us today. A smaller chance Thursday. Chances of lightning Friday into Monday will not be zero but they will be much lower than today. Isolated risk this weekend.

2. Are severe thunderstorms in the forecast? Marginal. Damaging wind is the main concern. A lower chance of hail.

* The NWS officially defines a severe thunderstorm as a storm with 58 mph wind or greater, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes

3. Is flash flooding in the forecast? Yes. Slow moving storms will cause flash flooding. Some locations could receive very heavy rain totals in a short amount of time. The atmosphere is loaded with moisture.

4. Will there be a chance of a frost or freeze? No.

5. Will the heat index exceed 100 degrees? Possible. All of the moisture in the ground and air will make it feel quite muggy. Heat index values may approach 100 this weekend and next week.

6. Will the wet-bulb globe temperature reach caution or danger levels? Yes.

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Wednesday WBGT (F): 78° Below prevention numbers.
Thursday WBGT (F): 81° Take 15 minute breaks each hour of working or exercising in direct sunlight.
Friday WBGT (F): 82° Take 15 minute breaks each hour of working or exercising in direct sunlight.
Saturday WBGT (F): 82° Take 15 minute breaks each hour of working or exercising in direct sunlight.
Sunday WBGT (F): 82° Take 15 minute breaks each hour of working or exercising in direct sunlight.

The WetBulb Globe Temperature (WBGT) is a measure of the heat stress in direct sunlight, which takes into account: temperature, humidity, wind speed, sun angle and cloud cover (solar radiation).

This differs from the heat index, which takes into consideration temperature and humidity and is calculated for shady areas.

If you work or exercise in direct sunlight, this is a good element to monitor.

Sports coaches, schools, military agencies, OSHA, and many nations use the WBGT as a guide to managing workload in direct sunlight.

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July 1, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Wednesday Forecast: Mostly cloudy. A chance of showers and thunderstorms. If clouds are thicker then high temperatures will be a bit lower. Warm and humid.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 90% IL ~ 80% KY ~ 70% TN ~ 60%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 86° to 88° SE MO 85° to 88° South IL 85° to 88° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 84° to 88° West KY 86° to 88° NW TN 86° to 88°
Wind direction and speed: South at 7 to 14 mph with gusts to 20 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 86° to 94°
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Locally heavy rain. Flash flooding where slow moving storms occur. Gusty wind near storms.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B. Monitor radars.
UV Index: 8 to 9. Very high.
Sunrise: 5:38 AM
Sunset: 8:20 PM
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Wednesday night Forecast: Mostly cloudy during the evening. Thunderstorms likely early, then, a chance of scattered thunderstorms after midnight. Warm and humid.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 40% IL ~ 40% KY ~ 40% TN ~ 40%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 72° to 74° SE MO 72° to 74° South IL 72° to 74° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 72° to 74° West KY 72° to 74° NW TN 72° to 75°
Wind direction and speed: South at 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 70° to 75°
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Locally heavy rain. Flash flooding where slow moving storms occur. Gusty wind near storms.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B during the evening. Monitor radars.
Moonrise: 4:54 PM
Moonset: 2:42 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous

July 2, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Thursday Forecast: AM fog. Some of the fog may be dense. Partly sunny. Warm and humid. Isolated thunderstorms. Warm and humid.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30% IL ~ 30% KY ~ 20% TN ~20%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 88° to 94° SE MO 88° to 92° South IL 88° to 92° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 88° to 92° West KY 88° to 92° NW TN 88° to 92°
Wind direction and speed: East wind 6 to 12 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 92° to 96°
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated to widely scattered
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Locally heavy rain. Gusty wind near storms.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars.
UV Index: 9 to 10. Very high.
Sunrise: 5:39 AM
Sunset: 8:20 PM
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Thursday night Forecast: Partly cloudy. An isolated thunderstorm.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 20% TN ~ 20%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 70° to 74° SE MO 70° to 74° South IL 70° to 74° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 70° to 74° West KY 70° to 74° NW TN 70° to 74°
Wind direction and speed: South at 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 70° to 75°
Coverage of precipitation: Most likely isolated.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways and lightning. Locally heavy rain where thunderstorms occur. Typical of June storms.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars.
Moonrise: 6:04 PM
Moonset: 3:21 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous

July 3, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Friday Forecast: Partly to mostly sunny. Hot and humid. Isolated thunderstorms. Warm and humid.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 20% TN ~20%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 88° to 94° SE MO 88° to 92° South IL 88° to 92° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 88° to 92° West KY 88° to 92° NW TN 88° to 92°
Wind direction and speed: Northeast at 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 86° to 94°
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Isolated wet roadways, lightning, heavy rain, and gusty wind.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates and radars.
UV Index: 9 to 10. Very high.
Sunrise: 5:39 AM
Sunset: 8:20 PM
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Friday night Forecast: Partly cloudy. Warm.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 10% IL ~ 10% KY ~ 10% TN ~ 10%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 70° to 74° SE MO 70° to 74° South IL 70° to 74° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 70° to 74° West KY 70° to 74° NW TN 70° to 74°
Wind direction and speed: South at 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 70° to 75°
Coverage of precipitation: Most likely none
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Most likely none
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 7:11 PM
Moonset: 4:06 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous

July 4, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Saturday Forecast: Partly to mostly sunny. Warm and humid. An isolated thunderstorm will be possible. Most of the area will remain dry.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 15% IL ~ 15% KY ~ 10% TN ~10%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 88° to 94° SE MO 88° to 92° South IL 88° to 92° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 88° to 92° West KY 88° to 92° NW TN 88° to 92°
Wind direction and speed: Northeast at 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 88° to 94°
Coverage of precipitation: None to isolated
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Isolated wet roadways, lightning, heavy rain, and gusty wind.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars
UV Index: 9 to 10. Very high.
Sunrise: 5:39 AM
Sunset: 8:20 PM
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Saturday night Forecast: Partly cloudy. Warm and humid.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 10% IL ~ 10% KY ~ 10% TN ~10%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 70° to 74° SE MO 70° to 74° South IL 70° to 74° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 70° to 74° West KY 70° to 74° NW TN 70° to 74°
Wind direction and speed: Northeast at 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 70° to 75°
Coverage of precipitation: Most likely none.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Most likely none
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 8:13 PM
Moonset: 4:57 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous

July 5, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Sunday Forecast: Partly to mostly sunny. Hot and humid. An isolated thunderstorm will be possible. Most of the area will remain dry.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 20% TN ~20%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 88° to 94° SE MO 88° to 92° South IL 88° to 92° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 88° to 92° West KY 88° to 92° NW TN 88° to 92°
Wind direction and speed: East and southeast at 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 88° to 96°
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Isolated wet roadways, lightning, heavy rain, and gusty wind.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates and radars.
UV Index: 9 to 10. Very high.
Sunrise: 5:40 AM
Sunset: 8:19 PM
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Sunday night Forecast: Partly cloudy. Warm and humid.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 5% IL ~ 5% KY ~ 5% TN ~ 5%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 70° to 74° SE MO 70° to 74° South IL 70° to 74° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 70° to 74° West KY 70° to 74° NW TN 70° to 74°
Wind direction and speed: East at 5 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 70° to 75°
Coverage of precipitation: Most likely none
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 9:07 PM
Moonset: 5:54 AM
The phase of the moon: Full moon

July 6, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Monday Forecast: Partly to mostly sunny. Hot and humid. A slight chance of thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 20% TN ~ 20%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 90° to 94° SE MO 90° to 94° South IL 90° to 92° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 90° to 92° West KY 90° to 92° NW TN 90° to 94°
Wind direction and speed: Northeast at 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 95° to 100°
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Isolated wet roadways, lightning, heavy rain, and gusty wind.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates and radars.
UV Index: 10. Very high.
Sunrise: 5:41 AM
Sunset: 8:19 PM
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Monday night Forecast: A few clouds. An isolated thunderstorm.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 20% TN ~ 20%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 70° to 74° SE MO 70° to 74° South IL 70° to 74° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 70° to 74° West KY 70° to 74° NW TN 70° to 74°
Wind direction and speed: East at 4 to 8 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 70° to 75°
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Isolated wet roadways, lightning, heavy rain, and gusty wind.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 9:53 PM
Moonset: 6:56 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous

July 7, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Tuesday Forecast: Partly to mostly sunny. Hot and humid. Widely scattered thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30% IL ~ 30% KY ~ 30% TN ~ 30%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 90° to 94° SE MO 90° to 94° South IL 90° to 92° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 90° to 92° West KY 90° to 92° NW TN 90° to 94°
Wind direction and speed: Southwest at 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 95° to 100°
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Locally heavy rain. Gusty wind near storms.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates and radars.
UV Index: 10. Very high.
Sunrise: 5:41 AM
Sunset: 8:19 PM
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Tuesday night Forecast: A few clouds. Widely scattered thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 20% TN ~ 20%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 70° to 74° SE MO 70° to 74° South IL 70° to 74° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 70° to 74° West KY 70° to 74° NW TN 70° to 74°
Wind direction and speed: Southwest at 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 70° to 75°
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Locally heavy rain. Gusty wind near storms.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars.
Moonrise: 10:52 PM
Moonset: 7:58 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous

July 8, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Wednesday Forecast: Partly to mostly sunny. Hot and humid. Scattered thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30% IL ~ 30% KY ~ 30% TN ~ 30%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 90° to 94° SE MO 90° to 94° South IL 90° to 92° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 90° to 92° West KY 90° to 92° NW TN 90° to 94°
Wind direction and speed: Southwest at 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 95° to 100°
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Locally heavy rain. Gusty wind near storms.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates and radars.
UV Index: 10. Very high.
Sunrise: 5:42 AM
Sunset: 8:19 PM
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Wednesday night Forecast: A few clouds. Warm and humid. A chance of scattered thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~30% IL ~ 30% KY ~ 30% TN ~ 30%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 70° to 74° SE MO 70° to 74° South IL 70° to 74° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 70° to 74° West KY 70° to 74° NW TN 70° to 74°
Wind direction and speed: Southwest at 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 70° to 75°
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Locally heavy rain. Gusty wind near storms.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars.
Moonrise: 10:52 PM
Moonset: 7:58 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous

What is the UV index?

Muggy heat.
Thunderstorms today could produce wind damage, heavy rain, and frequent lightning.

Click to enlarge the graphics.

Remember, this is an average across our local area. The county by county will vary. See the detailed forecast above for each area.

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Click graphics to enlarge them.

These are dates that may have precipitation. Monitor the trends in the forecast.

Anything past day seven is low confidence.

Graphic-cast

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Illinois

During active weather check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page.

Kentucky

During active weather check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page.

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Tennessee

During active weather check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page.

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Today through July 4th: There will be a chance of damaging wind today. A line of thunderstorms will approach from the northwest. It will move south and southeast. A small chance of hail today. Lightning, of course.

There will be a small chance of thunderstorms Thursday into Monday. Lightning will be the primary concern. June thunderstorms can produce isolated wind damage, as well.

Today’s outlook (below).

Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.

Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.

One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.

A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter size hail, and/or a tornado.

The tan states are simply a region that SPC outlined on this particular map. Just ignore that.

The black outline is our local area.

Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook.

The images below are from the WPC. Their totals are a bit lower than our current forecast. I wanted to show you the comparison.

24-hour precipitation outlook.
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48-hour precipitation outlook.
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72-hour precipitation outlook.
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Weather advice:

Updated July 1, 2020

Thunderstorms today could produce wind damage, heavy rain, and lightning. It will also be quite muggy.

Locally heavy rain will cause flash flooding in some counties. Flash flooding will be more likely across southern Illinois and northwest Kentucky. Especially areas that were hit hard Saturday night and Sunday. That is when one to six inches of rain fell over a large area. Avoid flooded roadways.

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Weather Discussion

1. Warm and muggy weather.
2. Thunderstorm chances.
3. Locally heavy rain and flash flooding.

Good day, everyone!

Wow, it has been quite the week of weather.

On Sunday, we had numerous locations across southern Illinois and western Kentucky that recorded three to six inches of rain.

Yesterday and last night we had widespread heavy thunderstorms. Some caused wind damage. Many caused flash flooding. Rain totals ranged from very little to over six inches! June.

The atmosphere is again loaded with moisture today. PWAT values (a measure of moisture in the entire atmosphere) are above two inches. Tropical moisture.

Dew points will be in the 70s. It will feel muggy outside. Uncomfortable.

Highs will be somewhat muted because of cloud cover and thunderstorms. Highs will peak mostly in the middle to upper 80s.

A line of thunderstorms is likely to move from central and northern Missouri into our region by late morning and afternoon.

Some of these thunderstorms could produce wind damage, torrential rain, flash flooding, and frequent lightning. A small chance of hail, as well.

We may eventually have a severe thunderstorm watch or some warnings. Monitor your app.

The good news is that after today the rain chances will begin to diminish.

A few remaining thunderstorms are possible today and Thursday. Coverage will be much less by Thursday.

That takes us to the holiday weekend. It will be hot and muggy with highs in the upper 80s to middle 90s. Heat index values will be in the 90s to near 100 degrees.

All of this moisture in the ground will make it feel muggy.

Thunderstorm chances Thursday through Monday will drop into the 0% to 20% range. Isolated.

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Again, as a reminder, these are models. They are never 100% accurate. Take the general idea from them.

What should I take from these?

The general idea and not specifics. Models usually do well with the generalities.
The time-stamp is located in the upper left corner.

What am I looking at?
You are looking at different models. Meteorologists use many different models to forecast the weather. All models are wrong. Some are more wrong than others. Meteorologists have to make a forecast based on the guidance/models.

I show you these so you can see what the different models are showing as far as precipitation. If most of the models agree, then the confidence in the final weather forecast increases.

This animation is the Hrrr model.

This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.