Beau Dodson's WeatherTalk Blog

July 2, 2016: Your holiday forecast.

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This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog.

What do the confidence levels mean?

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mediumchanceveritation

highverification

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This forecast covers the counties in red.

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This forecast covers the counties in red.

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Friday Night –  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Isolated showers or thunderstorms possible.
What impact is expected?  If storms develop then wet roadways and lightning.
Temperatures:  Lows in the 64-68 degree range
Winds: Winds north and northeast at 5-10 mph.  Winds could be variable in direction at times.
What is the chance for precipitation? 20%-30%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated to scattered
Is severe weather expected?  Unlikely
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: High
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No, but check radars from time to time.

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Saturday – Cloudy to partly cloudy.  Cooler where clouds are thickest.  Scattered showers and thunderstorms possible.  Best coverage over Missouri and Illinois.  Further northwest you travel the better chances for precipitation.  Most of the area will only have a 20%-30% chance.  Perhaps a bit higher over Missouri Bootheel and northwest Tennessee.  I would go around 40% there.
What impact is expected?  Some wet roadways and lightning.
Temperatures:  High temperatures will vary greatly over the region.  Where clouds are thicker you can expect to shave several degrees off the high temperatures.  Overall, most areas should be in the 66-76 degree range.  Again, if clouds are thicker then it will be cooler over parts of the region.  Mainly the northern and western parts of the red counties on the map above.  Western Kentucky may end up in the 80-86 degree range.
Winds:  Variable winds at 5-10 mph.  Winds may turn out of the north or northeast.  Gusts to 12 mph.

What is the chance for precipitation? 30% over western Kentucky and 40% over southern Illinois and southeast Missouri.  Plan on at least some precipitation on radar.  The further north and west you drive the better the chances for rain.
Coverage of precipitation?  Isolated to scattered over far southeast Missouri, far southern Illinois, and western Kentucky.  Perhaps numerous over northern parts of southeast Missouri and southern Illinois.  Far northwest counties in the area.
Is severe weather expected? Not at this time
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying:  High
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No.  But, check radars from time to time.
Sunrise will be at 5:39 a.m. and sunset will be at 8:18 p.m.
UV index will be 3-5.  Low to medium.  If clouds are thicker then 3-5 seems reasonable.  If the sun does come out then pop those numbers up.
Moonrise will be at 4:06 a.m. and moonset will be at 6:30 p.m.  Waning Crescent.

Saturday Night –  Some clouds.  Mild.  Some scattered showers and thunderstorms possible.
What impact is expected?  Maybe some wet roadways and lightning.
Temperatures:  Lows in the 62-66 degree range
Winds: Winds variable in direction at 5-10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 30%-40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Is severe weather expected?  Not at this time
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: High
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No.  But, check radars from time to time.

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Sunday – Partly cloudy.  A few showers and thunderstorms likely.  A few storms, during the afternoon hours, could be intense.  The placement of the warm front will be key to whether we have severe thunderstorms on Sunday.  If the warm front is further south then our region could have damaging winds, hail, and tornadoes.  Please monitor updates.  The severe weather threat is also contingent on clouds breaking up and the sun coming out.  If we have plenty of sun on Sunday then the atmosphere will become more unstable.
What impact is expected?  Maybe some wet roadways and lightning.  Gusty winds near storms.  Monitor updates concerning severe weather.  Damaging winds and tornadoes are possible near the warm front Sunday afternoon and night.  The warm front will likely be draped across the northern parts of southern Illinois into northwest Kentucky.
Temperatures:  High temperatures in the 88-95 degree range.  Cooler where clouds are thicker.  Warmer outside of the cloud zone.
Winds:  Variable  winds at 5-10 mph.  Winds becoming southerly and southwesterly  at 6-12 mph gusts to 22 mph.  Winds north of the warm front will be variable in direction.  The warm front will advance northward during the day.  Thus, winds will become more south/southwest as the warm air moves into the region.

What is the chance for precipitation? 30% during the morning and 40% during the afternoon. Best chances might end up over our western and northern counties.  Farminton, MO towards Mt Vernon, IL.  This will depend on the warm front.
Coverage of precipitation?  Isolated to scattered.
Is severe weather expected? A few severe thunderstorms are possible during the afternoon and evening hours.  Perhaps centered more to our north.  But, monitor updates closely.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  Monitor updates and radars on Sunday afternoon and night.  A few intense storms could cause problems.
Sunrise will be at 5:40 a.m. and sunset will be at 8:18 p.m.
UV index will be 7-8.  Moderate to perhaps high.  Questionable amount of sun on Sunday.
Moonrise will be at 5:01 a.m. and moonset will be at 7:31 p.m.  Waning Crescent.

Sunday Night – Becoming cloudy.  Showers and thunderstorms likely.  Some heavy rain possible.  Severe storms are possible near the warm front.
What impact is expected?  Wet roadways and lightning.  Heavy rain possible.  Gusty winds near storms.  Can’t rule out severe thunderstorms near the warm front.  Hail, damaging winds and tornadoes possible.  The warm front will likely be situated over our northern counties.  Northern parts of southern Illinois and perhaps into northwest Kentucky.  Monitor updates.
Temperatures:  Lows in the 68-74 degree range
Winds: Winds variable in direction at 4-8 mph.  Gusts to 15 mph.  As always, stronger near storms.
What is the chance for precipitation? 70%
Coverage of precipitation:  Numerous/widespread
Is severe weather expected?  A few severe storms are possible.  Monitor updated information.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: High
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No, but monitor updates and have a plan B.

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There remains some question as to the timing rain will exit on Monday.  Have a plan B.

July 4th ~ Monday – Mostly cloudy.  A good chance for morning and early afternoon showers and thunderstorms.  Some question on when precipitation will end on Monday.  Have a plan B.
What impact is expected?  Wet roadways and lightning.  Gusty winds near storms.  Heavy rain possible.  Isolated severe thunderstorm risk.
Temperatures:  High temperatures in the 82-86 degree range.  High temps will depend on cloud cover.
Winds:  Southwest  winds at 5-10 mph with gusts to 15 mph.  Winds may become more west and southwest.

What is the chance for precipitation? 60%
Coverage of precipitation?  Perhaps numerous
Is severe weather expected?  Monitor updates.  Some intense storms can’t be ruled out.  Isolated severe weather risk.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low to medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  Might be wise to have a plan B on Monday.
Sunrise will be at 5:40 a.m. and sunset will be at 8:17 p.m.
UV index will be 1-4.  Mostly low because of cloud cover.
Moonrise will be at 6:00 a.m. and moonset will be at 8:25 p.m.  New moon.

Monday Night – Quite a few clouds.  Again, a chance for scattered showers and thunderstorms.
What impact is expected?  Maybe wet roadways and lightning.  Locally heavy downpours possible.
Temperatures:  Lows in the 66 to 72 degree range
Winds: Winds south and southwest in direction at 5-10 mph.  Winds becoming variable in direction.
What is the chance for precipitation? 40%
Coverage of precipitation:  Scattered
Is severe weather expected?  Unlikely, but a few strong storms possible with gusty winds early in the evening over the Pennyrile area of western Kentucky.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  I would suggest having a plan B.  But, I would not cancel plans.

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Tuesday – Partly cloudy.  A scattered shower or thunderstorm possible.
What impact is expected?  Maybe some wet roadways and lightning.
Temperatures:  High temperatures in the 84-88 degree range
Winds:  Southwest and west winds at 5-10 mph with gusts to 15 mph.

What is the chance for precipitation? 30%
Coverage of precipitation?  Isolated to perhaps scattered.
Is severe weather expected?  No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No, but monitor radars.
Sunrise will be at 5:41 a.m. and sunset will be at 8:18 p.m.
UV index will be 7-8.  Moderate to high.
Moonrise will be at 7:01 a.m. and moonset will be at 9:14 p.m.  Waxing Crescent.

Tuesday Night – Partly cloudy.  Isolated storm risk.
What impact is expected?  Maybe wet roadways and lightning.
Temperatures:  Lows in the 72-76 degree range
Winds: Winds southwest at 4-8 mph with gusts to 12 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? <20%
Coverage of precipitation:  Isolated.
Is severe weather expected?  No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: High
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No, but monitor radars.

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There is considerable debate about rain chances Wednesday-Sunday.  This will need to be monitored.  A series of disturbances will pass to our north.  Some could dip into our area.  Hopefully they will.

Wednesday – Quite a bit of sun.  How.  Humid.  Muggy.  Isolated thunderstorm risk.
What impact is expected? Likely none.  Isolated wet roadways and lightning.
Temperatures:  High temperatures in the 86 to 94 degree range.  Isolated higher temperatures possible.
Winds:  Southwest winds at 5-10 mph with gusts to 15 mph.

What is the chance for precipitation? 20%
Coverage of precipitation?  Perhaps isolated to scattered
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
Sunrise will be at 5:41 a.m. and sunset will be at 8:17 p.m.
UV index will be 7-9.  Moderate to high.
Moonrise will be at 8:03 a.m. and moonset will be at 9:56 p.m.  Waxing Crescent.

Wednesday Night – Partly cloudy.  Warm. Humid. A less than 20% chance for a storm.
What impact is expected?  Likely none.  There is a small chance for a scattered thunderstorm. 
Temperatures:  Lows in the 74-78 degree range
Winds: Winds southwest at 4-8 mph with gusts to 12 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? <20%
Coverage of precipitation:  Isolated
Is severe weather expected?  No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No, but monitor updates.

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Thursday – Quite a bit of sun.  Hot.  Humid.  Muggy.  A less than 20% chance for a storm at any given location.
What impact is expected? Likely none.  Isolated wet roadways and lightning.
Temperatures:  High temperatures in the 90-96 degree range.  Isolated higher temperatures possible.
Winds:  Southwest winds at 5-10 mph with gusts to 12 mph.

What is the chance for precipitation? <20%
Coverage of precipitation? Isolated
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
Sunrise will be at 5:42 a.m. and sunset will be at 8:17 p.m.
UV index will be 9-11.  High.
Moonrise will be at 9:04 a.m. and moonset will be at 10:34 p.m.  Waxing Crescent.

Thursday Night – Partly cloudy.  Very warm.  Humid.
What impact is expected?  Likely none.  Isolated wet roadways and lightning.
Temperatures:  Lows in the 76-82 degree range
Winds: Winds southwest at 4-8 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? <20%
Coverage of precipitation:  Isolated if any at all
Is severe weather expected?  Unlikely
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No

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Friday – Partly sunny.  Hot.  Humid.  Muggy.
What impact is expected? Likely none.  Isolated wet roadways and lightning.
Temperatures:  High temperatures in the  90-96 degree range.  Isolated higher temperatures possible.
Winds:  Southwest winds at 5-10 mph with gusts to 12 mph.

What is the chance for precipitation?  <20%
Coverage of precipitation?  Isolated
Is severe weather expected?  Unlikely
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
Sunrise will be at 5:42 a.m. and sunset will be at 8:16 p.m.
UV index will be 8-11.  Moderate to high.
Moonrise will be at 10:04 a.m. and moonset will be at 11:08 p.m.  Waxing Crescent.

Friday Night – Partly cloudy.  Very warm.  Humid.
What impact is expected?  Likely none.  Isolated wet roadways and lightning.
Temperatures:  Lows in the 76-82 degree range
Winds: Winds southwest at 4-8 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? <20%
Coverage of precipitation:  Isolated
Is severe weather expected?  Unlikely
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No

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Saturday – Partly sunny.  Hot.  Humid.
What impact is expected?  Most likely none.  Isolated wet roadways and lightning.
Temperatures:  High temperatures in the  92-96 degree range
Winds:  Southwest winds at 5-10 mph with gusts to 12 mph.

What is the chance for precipitation?  <20%
Coverage of precipitation?  Isolated
Is severe weather expected?  No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
Sunrise will be at 5:43 a.m. and sunset will be at 8:16 p.m.
UV index will be 8-11.  Moderate to high.
Moonrise will be at 11:04 a.m. and moonset will be at 11:41 p.m.  Waxing Crescent.

Saturday Night – Partly cloudy.  Hot.
What impact is expected?  Likely none.  Isolated wet roadways and lightning.
Temperatures:  Lows in the 76-82 degree range
Winds: Winds southwest at 4-8 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation?  <20%
Coverage of precipitation:  Isolated
Is severe weather expected?  Unlikely
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No

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Sunday – Partly sunny.  Hot.  Humid.
What impact is expected?  Most likely none.  Isolated wet roadways and lightning.
Temperatures:  High temperatures in the  92-96 degree range
Winds:  Southwest winds at 5-10 mph with gusts to 12 mph.

What is the chance for precipitation?  <20%
Coverage of precipitation?  Isolated
Is severe weather expected?  No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
Sunrise will be at 5:44 a.m. and sunset will be at 8:16 p.m.
UV index will be 8-11.  Moderate to high.
Moonrise will be at –:– a.m. and moonset will be at 11:57 p.m.  Waxing Crescent.

Sunday Night – Partly cloudy.  Hot.
What impact is expected?  Likely none.  Isolated wet roadways and lightning.
Temperatures:  Lows in the 76-82 degree range
Winds: Winds southwest at 4-8 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation?  <20%
Coverage of precipitation:  Isolated
Is severe weather expected?  Unlikely
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No

More information on the UV index.  Click here.

The weekend forecast is sponsored by Farmer and Company Real Estate.

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Don’t forget to check out the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory web-site for weather maps, tower cams, scanner feeds, radars, and much more!  Click here

beausanalysis

An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming days…

  1.   Widespread rain and storms likely by Sunday afternoon or night into Monday night
  2.   Locally heavy rain possible
  3.   Severe weather concerns?
  4.   Heat wave next week?   How long might it last?

Welcome to your holiday weekend!  It has been a bumpy forecast ride getting here.  But, details concerning the weekend forecast are coming into focus.  Let’s dig into it.

We will have a warm front to our south on Friday night into Saturday.  This front will eventually move slowly back northward over the weekend.  A few scattered showers and storms can’t be ruled out Friday night into Saturday night.  However, many areas will remain dry.  I would suggest not canceling any plans.  But, have a plan B in your back pocket in case a shower or storm moves overhead.

There is some question about rain coverage on Saturday afternoon and Saturday night over our northern counties.   Mostly from Poplar Bluff, Missouri towards Carbondale, Illinois and then towards Evansville.  From there northward there could be a bit more activity than the rest of the area.  Plan on at least some showers and storms dotting radar.

A cold front will push into the region on Sunday and Monday.  This front, coupled with an area of low pressure, will deliver widespread showers and heavy thunderstorms to the region.  The best coverage will be Sunday night into Monday.

Some of today’s data is backing off on Monday’s coverage.  This will need to be monitored.

The atmosphere will become a bit more unstable on Sunday afternoon into Monday. Upper level wind fields pick up.  That means some shear to work with.  Thus, a few storms could perk up to near severe levels.  I can’t rule out severe weather.  Widespread severe weather does not look likely.  At least not at this time.  As always, when severe weather concerns are a day or two out, I recommend you check back frequently for updated information.  And, I will be using the texting system this weekend in the event severe weather does develop.  Don’t forget to sign up and help sponsor the weather data.  You can do that on www.beaudodsonweather.com

We are going to have some big rainfall totals from this event.  The highest totals could end up over our northern counties over southeast Missouri and southern Illinois.  The further north you drive the higher the chances for bigger totals.  But, everyone is in the running for 0.75″-1.50″ of rain.  And, pockets of 2-3″ of rain appear likely.  If storms train over the same areas then some could even top three inches.  Would not be surprised to see that happen.

Sharp rises on creaks are possible in the heaviest rain bands.  Keep this in mind if you are camping.  Another concern will be lightning.  As always, use care during these thunderstorm events.

Temperatures, over the coming days, will vary considerably.  Saturday high temperatures should range from the 60’s over Farmington and Mt Vernon to the lower 80’s for western Kentucky and northwest Tennessee.

Expect mostly 80’s on Sunday and more humid south of the warm front.  North of the front temperatures will remain in the 70’s.  Monday will be a warm day with highs into the 80’s.

A heat wave is still anticipated next week.  Numerous days with 90+ degrees can be expected.  Perhaps the heat will peak on Thursday.  Middle to upper 90’s are possible.  Some data points towards 100 degrees.  For now, I will temper that back just a little bit.  Either way, it is going to heat up again and it will feel uncomfortable outside.

As far as thunderstorm  chances on Tuesday into Saturday.  I can’t rule out a few showers and storms on Tuesday.  But, for the most part, it appears we might dry out for the rest of the week.  With that said, there are some signals in different guidance packages of a couple of MCS’s (thunderstorm complexes) tracking near our region next Wednesday into Sunday.  Confidence is low as to whether we might share some of that action.  Monitor updates.

The longer range, for the rest of July, is much of the same.  We bounce back and fourth between the heat ridge and the northwest flow.  We need to be in the northwest flow for better thunderstorm chances.  If we get stuck in the heat ridge then it won’t take long for the drier than normal conditions to catch back up with us.  Let’s assume we have a widespread rainfall event this weekend into early next week.  That will certainly help relieve the dry/drought conditions.  But, stress to crops will quickly return if we enter another big heat wave.

Let’s look at a few rainfall forecast maps.  These are from the NAM model guidance.  They are six hour rainfall totals.

I will walk you through them.  Remember, this is guidance and not gospel.  Meaning, nothing is ever exactly as the models show.  But, you can take a general idea from the data.  Click images to enlarge them.

This is how much rain the NAM is forecasting from 11 am Saturday until 4 pm Saturday

qpf_006h.us_ov

This next graphic is how much rain is forecast from 4 pm through 10 pm on Saturday evening.

qpf_006h.us_ov (1)

This next graphics is from 1 am Sunday morning until 7 am Sunday morning

qpf_006h.us_ov (2)

This next graphic is from 7 am Sunday until 1 pm Sunday afternoon

qpf_006h.us_ov (3)

This next graphic is from 1 pm on Sunday until 7 pm on Sunday.  Notice how the rain has spread further and further into our region.

qpf_006h.us_ov (4)

This next graphic is from 7 pm on Sunday until 1 am on Monday morning.

qpf_006h.us_ov (5)

This next graphic is from 1 am on Monday until 7 am on Monday.  Notice the shift southward?  I am not overly confident about how far south this extends.  As you can see, parts of southeast Missouri and southern Illinois, according to the NAM model, is out of the rain zone.  These are rainfall totals for six hour periods of time.

qpf_006h.us_ov (6)

This next graphic is from 7 am Monday morning until 1 pm Monday afternoon.  How much rain will fall?  This is what the NAM is showing.

qpf_006h.us_ov (7)

 

What is all of the above added together?  Good question!  Let’s see what the NAM guidance shows.

KEEP IN MIND the above NAM charts only take us into Monday morning.  The GFS/GEM maps (below) take us into Tuesday.

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Here is what the GFS guidance shows

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Here is what the GEM guidance shows.  You get the general idea.  Quite a bit of rain is likely to fall by Tuesday morning.

qpf_acc.us_ov (1)

Storm tracking tools below.

Storm Tracking Radar

http://www.weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm

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We have regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not seem to be updating then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared. You may also try restarting your browser. That usually fixes the problem. Occasionally we do have a radar go down. That is why I have duplicates. Thus, if one fails then try another one.

If you have any problems then please send me an email beaudodson@usawx.com

WEATHER RADAR PAGEClick here

We also have a new national interactive radar – you can view that radar by clicking here.

Local interactive city radars include St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, Dyersburg, and all of eastern Kentucky – these are interactive radars. Local city radars – click here

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Live Lightning Data – zoom and pan:  Click here
Live Lightning Data with sound (click the sound button on the left side of the page): Click here

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Can we expect severe thunderstorms over the next 24 to 48 hours?  Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.

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Friday night into Saturday night:  Scattered thunderstorms are possible.  Heavy downpours and lightning would be the main concern.

Sunday into Monday:  Thunderstorms are possible.  A few storms could become severe.  Lets keep an eye on Sunday and Monday.  Sunday afternoon and night there will be quite a bit of shear in the atmosphere.  Damaging winds, hail, and even a few tornadoes will be possible.  The main focus, again, will be near the warm front.  The placement of the warm front is key to what happens locally.   Right now it appears the warm front will be situated somewhere near St Louis into the Mt Vernon, Illinois area and then southeast towards Evansville.  Monitor any watches and warnings that are issued on Sunday and Monday.
Monday night into Tuesday:  Thunderstorms are again possible.  A few storms could produce gusty winds.  Heavy rain and lightning will be the main concern.

The level three threat is mainly for parts of southern Illinois into southwest Indiana and northwest Kentucky.  But, we should all monitor updates on Sunday afternoon and night.  Some severe weather is possible in the region.  And, perhaps a few isolated severe weather reports on Monday, as well.

level3withtornadoes

 

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Small changes in the forecast.  No big swings in this update.  I did increase the wording for severe weather on Sunday into Monday.  Overall, the risk appears fairly low, but not zero.  Let’s keep an eye on that part of the forecast.

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whatamiconcered
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Main concern will be some thunderstorms over the coming days.  Heavy rain and lightning being the concern.  If we were to have severe storms then Sunday afternoon and evening would be the most likely time frame.

Have a plan B for the weekend.  In case we do have rain and storms.  Especially true for Sunday afternoon into Monday night.
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willineedtotakeaction
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Umbrella handy.  We will have some showers and thunderstorms on radar over the coming days.
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rainfallforecast

How much precipitation should we expect over the next few days?
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We will have at least a few scattered showers and storms on radar between now and Sunday afternoon.  Activity picks up on Sunday afternoon into Monday.  That is when the most widespread activity is anticipated.  Some areas could pick up 0.75″-1.5″ of rain.  With pockets of 2-3″ likely.  If thunderstorms train over the same areas then greater than three inches of rain may fall.  Let’s  hope we can pick up substantial rain for the farmers.  I know it is a holiday weekend, but we need rain.

Here is the latest NOAA/WPC rainfall map for the next seven days.  Broad-brushed.
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Here are the current river stage forecasts.   You can click your state and then the dot for your location.  It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.

Click Here For River Stage Forecasts

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Here is the official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook.  Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).

The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA).

The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook.  Note the dates are at the top of the image.  These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be.  They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.

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Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?

I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s.  I have 37 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns.  My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology from Mississippi State University and an Associate of Science (AS).  I am currently working on my Bachelor’s Degree in Geoscience.

My resume includes:

Member of the American Meteorological Society.

NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador. 

Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management.  I served from 2005 through 2015.

I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.

Recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross

In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. 

Recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.

I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.

There is a lot of noise on the internet.  A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation.  Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.

My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.

  • Communicate in simple terms
  • To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
  • Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, and the blog
  • Minimize the “hype” that you might see on television or through other weather sources
  • Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events

I am a recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross.  In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award.  I was recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.

If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.

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Many of my graphics are from www.weatherbell.com – a great resource for weather data, model data, and more

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awaremail

You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions.

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