Beau Dodson's WeatherTalk Blog

July 15, 2020. Beau’s subscriber’s weather blog update. Not a subscriber? Go to www.weathertalk.com/welcome Once subscribed, download the WeatherTalk app in the app store

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Click one of the links below to take you directly to that section.

    1. Your detailed day to day forecast
    2. City-view graphic-casts
    3. Severe weather outlook
    4. Forecast discussion
    5. Future-cast radars
    6. Long-range temp & precip graphics

Do you have any suggestions or comments?  Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com

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7-day forecast for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.

This is a blend for the region.  See the detailed region by region forecast further down in this post.

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Tuesday through Tuesday

1.  Is lightning in the forecast?  Yes.

2.  Are severe thunderstorms in the forecast?  Yes.   Severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon into tonight.  The threat is higher over Missouri and Illinois. See details further down in this blog update.  Otherwise, a few severe thunderstorms are possible Thursday through Monday.   Typical summer thunderstorms.  Downburst wind will be the primary concern.

* The NWS officially defines a severe thunderstorm as a storm with 58 mph wind or greater,  1″ hail or larger,  and/or tornadoes

3.  Is flash flooding in the forecast? Yes.  Slow moving storms will produce heavy rain.  Pockets of flash flooding may occur.

4.  Will there be a chance of a frost or freeze?  No.

5.  Will the heat index exceed 100 degrees?  Yes.  Heat index values from 100 to 108 are likely outside of cloudy areas.

6.  Will the wet-bulb globe temperature reach caution or danger levels?  Yes.

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Wednesday WBGT (F): 84° Take 15 minute breaks each hour of working or exercising in direct sunlight.
Thursday WBGT (F): 84° Take 15 minute breaks each hour of working or exercising in direct sunlight.
Friday WBGT (F): 84° Take 15 minute breaks each hour of working or exercising in direct sunlight.
Saturday WBGT (F): 84° Take 15 minute breaks each hour of working or exercising in direct sunlight.
Sunday WBGT (F): 85° Take 15 minute breaks each hour of working or exercising in direct sunlight.
Monday WBGT (F): 84° Take 15 minute breaks each hour of working or exercising in direct sunlight.
Tuesday WBGT (F): 84° Take 15 minute breaks each hour of working or exercising in direct sunlight.

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The WetBulb Globe Temperature (WBGT) is a measure of the heat stress in direct sunlight, which takes into account: temperature, humidity, wind speed, sun angle and cloud cover (solar radiation).

This differs from the heat index, which takes into consideration temperature and humidity and is calculated for shady areas.

If you work or exercise in direct sunlight, this is a good element to monitor.

Sports coaches, schools, military agencies, OSHA, and many nations use the WBGT as a guide to managing workload in direct sunlight.

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Something wrong on the page?  Suggestions? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
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July 15, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify?  Medium confidence
Wednesday Forecast
:  Mostly sunny.  Scattered thunderstorms.  Hot and humid.  Some storms could become severe with hail and wind damage.  The severe risk is higher over southeast Missouri and southern Illinois.  The threat is highest along and north of Bollinger and Cape Girardeau Counties in southeast Missouri and along and north of a line from Jackson, Williamson, Saline, and Gallatin Counties in southern Illinois.  The threat of severe weather south of that line is less certain.  That does not mean you are out of the woods.  Monitor updates.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 50%    IL ~ 40%    KY ~  40%    TN ~ 30%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 93° to 95°    SE MO 92° to 95°    South IL  92° to 95°   Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 92° to 95°    West KY 92° to 95°    NW TN 92° to 95°
Wind direction and speed: South and southwest wind 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 98° to 104°
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to perhaps numerous
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways and lightning,  Gusty wind near storms.  A chance of hail.  High heat index values.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates and radars.
UV Index: 11. Very high.
Sunrise: 5:46 AM
Sunset: 8:16 PM
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Wednesday night Forecast:  Partly cloudy.  A chance of thunderstorms.  Humid. The severe risk is higher over southeast Missouri and southern Illinois.  The threat is highest along and north of Bollinger and Cape Girardeau Counties in southeast Missouri and along and north of a line from Jackson, Williamson, Saline, and Gallatin Counties in southern Illinois.  The threat of severe weather south of that line is less certain.  That does not mean you are out of the woods.  Monitor updates.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 70%    IL ~ 70%    KY ~  60%    TN ~ 40%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 73° to 76°     SE MO  73° to 76°     South IL  73° to 76°     Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 73° to 74°    West KY 73° to 76°     NW TN 73° to 76°
Wind direction and speed: Southwest at 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 74° to 78°
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to perhaps numerous
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways and lightning,  Gusty wind near storms.  A chance of hail.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitors updates.
Moonrise: 1:45 AM
Moonset:  3:47 PM
The phase of the moon:  Waning Crescent

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July 16, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify?  Medium confidence
Thursday Forecast
:  Mostly sunny.  A chance of thunderstorms developing.  Hot and humid.  Some storms could be strong.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30%    IL ~ 20%    KY ~  30%    TN ~ 30%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 92° to 95°    SE MO 92° to 95°    South IL  92° to 95°   Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 92° to 95°    West KY 92° to 95°    NW TN 92° to 95°
Wind direction and speed: South and southwest wind 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 100° to 105°
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Heat.  Wet roadways and lightning,  Gusty wind near storms.  A chance of hail. High heat index values.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitors updates
UV Index: 11. Very high.
Sunrise: 5:47 AM
Sunset: 8:15 PM
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Thursday night Forecast: Partly cloudy.  A chance of thunderstorms.  Warm. Humid.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~20%    IL ~ 30%    KY ~  30%    TN ~ 20%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 74° to 76°     MO  73° to 76°     South IL  73° to 76°     Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 73° to 74°    West KY 73° to 76°     NW TN 73° to 76°
Wind direction and speed: South at 4 to 8 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 74° to 78°
Coverage of precipitation:  Scattered
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways and lightning,  Gusty wind near storms.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates
Moonrise: 2:18 AM
Moonset:  4:46 PM
The phase of the moon:  Waning Crescent

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July 17, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify?  Medium confidence
Friday Forecast
:  Mostly sunny.  A chance of thunderstorms developing.  Hot and humid.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20%    IL ~ 20%    KY ~  30%    TN ~ 20%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 93° to 96°    SE MO 93° to 96°    South IL  93° to 96°   Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 93° to 96°    West KY 93° to 96°    NW TN 93° to 96°
Wind direction and speed: South and southwest wind 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 100° to 105°
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Heat.  Wet roadways and lightning,  Gusty wind near storms.  High heat index values.  Use care.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitors updates
UV Index: 11. Very high.
Sunrise: 5:48 AM
Sunset: 8:14 PM
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Friday night Forecast: Partly cloudy.  A chance of thunderstorms.  Warm.  Humid.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20%    IL ~ 30%    KY ~  20%    TN ~ 20%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 74° to 76°     MO  74° to 76°     South IL  74° to 76°     Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 74° to 74°    West KY 74° to 76°     NW TN 74° to 76°
Wind direction and speed: South at 4 to 8 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 74° to 78°
Coverage of precipitation:  Scattered
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways and lightning,  Gusty wind near storms.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates
Moonrise: 2:55 AM
Moonset:  4:47 PM
The phase of the moon:  Waning Crescent

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July 18, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify?  Medium confidence
Saturday Forecast
:  Mostly sunny.  A chance of thunderstorms developing.  Hot and humid.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30%    IL ~ 30%    KY ~  30%    TN ~ 30%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 93° to 96°    SE MO 93° to 96°    South IL  93° to 96°   Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 93° to 96°    West KY 93° to 96°    NW TN 93° to 96°
Wind direction and speed: South and southwest wind 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 100° to 105°
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Heat.  Wet roadways and lightning,  Gusty wind near storms.  High heat index values.  Use care.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitors updates
UV Index: 11. Very high.
Sunrise: 5:49 AM
Sunset: 8:14 PM
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Saturday night Forecast: Partly cloudy.  A chance of thunderstorms.  Warm.  Humid.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20%    IL ~ 20%    KY ~  20%    TN ~ 20%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 74° to 76°     MO  73° to 76°     South IL  73° to 76°     Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 73° to 74°    West KY 73° to 76°     NW TN 73° to 76°
Wind direction and speed: South at 4 to 8 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 74° to 78°
Coverage of precipitation:  Scattered
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways and lightning,  Gusty wind near storms.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates
Moonrise: 3:39 AM
Moonset:  6:47 PM
The phase of the moon:  Waning Crescent

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July 19, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify?  Low confidence
Sunday Forecast
:  Mostly sunny.  A chance of isolated thunderstorms developing.  Hot and humid.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20%    IL ~ 20%    KY ~  20%    TN ~ 10%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 94° to 98°    SE MO 94° to 98°    South IL  94° to 98°   Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 94° to 96°    West KY 94° to 98°    NW TN 94° to 98°
Wind direction and speed: South and southwest wind 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 100° to 105°
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Heat.  Wet roadways and lightning,  Gusty wind near storms.  High heat index values.  Use care.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitors updates
UV Index: 11. Very high.
Sunrise: 5:49 AM
Sunset: 8:13 PM
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Sunday night Forecast: Partly cloudy.  A chance of thunderstorms.  Warm.  Humid.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20%    IL ~ 20%    KY ~  20%    TN ~ 20%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 74° to 78°     MO  74° to 76°     South IL  74° to 78°     Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 74° to 76°    West KY 74° to 78°     NW TN 74° to 76°
Wind direction and speed: South at 4 to 8 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 74° to 78°
Coverage of precipitation:  Isolated
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways and lightning,  Gusty wind near storms.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates
Moonrise: 4:31 AM
Moonset:  7:43 PM
The phase of the moon:  Waning Crescent

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July 20, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify?  Low confidence
Monday Forecast
:  Mostly sunny.  A chance of thunderstorms developing.  Hot and humid.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20%    IL ~ 20%    KY ~  20%    TN ~ 20%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 93° to 96°    SE MO 93° to 96°    South IL  93° to 96°   Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 93° to 96°    West KY 93° to 96°    NW TN 93° to 96°
Wind direction and speed: South and southwest wind 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 100° to 105°
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Heat.  Wet roadways and lightning,  Gusty wind near storms.  High heat index values.  Use care.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitors updates
UV Index: 11. Very high.
Sunrise: 5:50 AM
Sunset: 8:13 PM
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Monday night Forecast: Partly cloudy.  A chance of thunderstorms.  Warm.  Humid.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20%    IL ~ 20%    KY ~  20%    TN ~ 20%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 74° to 76°     MO  73° to 76°     South IL  73° to 76°     Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 73° to 74°    West KY 73° to 76°     NW TN 73° to 76°
Wind direction and speed: South at 4 to 8 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 74° to 78°
Coverage of precipitation:  Scattered
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways and lightning,  Gusty wind near storms.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates
Moonrise: 5:30 AM
Moonset:  8:35 PM
The phase of the moon:  New

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What is the UV index?

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  1.  Highs in the upper 80s to middle 90s this week.  Heat concerns.
  2.  Thunderstorms will be possible Wednesday into at least Sunday.  Locally heavy rain will be the primary concern.
  3.  Some storms could produce hail and wind damage.

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Click to enlarge the graphics.

Remember, this is an average across our local area.  The county by county will vary.  See the detailed forecast above for each area.

Click graphics to enlarge them.

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Click graphics to enlarge them.

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These are dates that may have precipitation.  Monitor the trends in the forecast.

Anything past day seven is low confidence. 


Graphic-cast

Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.

Illinois

During active weather check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page.

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Kentucky

During active weather check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page.


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Tennessee

During active weather check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page.


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Today through July 20th:  A few severe thunderstorms are likely this afternoon and tonight.

The threat is highest along and north of Bollinger and Cape Girardeau Counties in southeast Missouri and along and north of a line from Jackson, Williamson, Saline, and Gallatin Counties in southern Illinois.

The threat of severe weather south of that line is less certain.  That does not mean you are out of the woods.  Monitor updates.

Thursday through Monday will deliver at least a daily chance of locally heavy thunderstorms.  Downburst wind will be the primary concern.

Downburst winds are not uncommon during July.

 

 

Today’s outlook (below).

Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.

Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.

One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.

A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter size hail, and/or a tornado.

The tan states are simply a region that SPC outlined on this particular map.  Just ignore that.

The black outline is our local area.

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Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook.

 

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The images below are from the WPC.  Their totals are a bit lower than our current forecast.  I wanted to show you the comparison.

24-hour precipitation outlook.
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48-hour precipitation outlook.
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72-hour precipitation outlook.
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Weather advice:

Updated July 15, 2020

Scattered thunderstorms Wednesday into at least Sunday.  Some of the storms could produce locally heavy rain and gusty wind.  Avoid flooded roadways.

Some storms could be severe with wind damage and hail.  A tornado can’t be ruled out.  The risk is higher this afternoon and tonight.  Lower risk Thursday onward.  See details below.

Heat index values will rise above 100 by Wednesday.  Muggy weather.  Use care when working outdoors, as always.

Don’t leave pets, children, or adults in hot cars.  Cars can rapidly heat to above 115 degrees in this kind of weather.  Use common sense, as always.

Download the Beau Dodson Weather Talk app from the app store.  Search for Weather Talk by the Fire Horn.  Download it.  Install it.  It is for subscribers.  Not a subscriber?  Go to www.weathertalk.com/welcome

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Weather Discussion

    1.   Hot and muggy.
    2.   Severe thunderstorms possible later today and tonight (esp MO/IL).
    3.   Hot into the weekend with scattered thunderstorms.

Another hot day ahead of us!  Go figure.   Summer!  Typical July weather.

A strong disturbance will push into the region this afternoon and tonight.  A line of thunderstorms is likely to push across portions of Missouri and Illinois.

Some of those thunderstorms will produce wind damage and hail.  I can’t rule out a tornado.

The threat is highest along and north of Bollinger and Cape Girardeau Counties in southeast Missouri and along and north of a line from Jackson, Williamson, Saline, and Gallatin Counties in southern Illinois.

The threat of severe weather south of that line is less certain.  That does not mean you are out of the woods.  Monitor updates.

There will be no lack of energy in the atmosphere.  High temperatures will rise into the 90s each day.  Heat equals energy.

CAPE values (CAPE is a measure of energy) will rise above 3000 each afternoon.  Wind shear won’t be all that strong (usually the case in July) but enough to warrant out attention.  Wind shear is an ingredient for severe thunderstorms.

Precipitable water numbers are going to be very high over the coming days.  Precipitable water measures all of the moisture in the atmosphere.

That means torrential rain.  One to two inches in thirty minutes will be possible in the heavier thunderstorms.  Same as recent weeks.  This could cause flash flooding.

The tornado risk is slightly higher than it appeared to be in yesterday’s outlook.

Daily highs will reach into the 90s.  Heat index values will range from the middle 90s to 105 degrees each afternoon.  Use care in all of that heat.

Thursday through Sunday will deliver hot and muggy weather.  Scattered thunderstorms.  Peak chances will be Thursday and Friday.

The long-range outlook centers around the placement of the ridge of high pressure.  That ridge will control where we have thunderstorms or dry/hot weather.

The high will be shunted slightly southward Wednesday through Friday.  Thus, we have higher thunderstorm chances.

If the ridge of high pressure nudges its way back into our region then rain chances would shut down and we would be left with mid to upper 90s for daytime high temperatures.  Heat index values would be north of 100 degrees.  Let’s hope we can keep the ridge suppressed.

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August temperature departures

Click on the images to enlarge them

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Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.

Again, as a reminder, these are models. They are never 100% accurate. Take the general idea from them.

What should I take from these?

  1. The general idea and not specifics. Models usually do well with the generalities.
  2. The time-stamp is located in the upper left corner.

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What am I looking at? 
You are looking at different models.  Meteorologists use many different models to forecast the weather.  All models are wrong.  Some are more wrong than others.  Meteorologists have to make a forecast based on the guidance/models.

I show you these so you can see what the different models are showing as far as precipitation.  If most of the models agree, then the confidence in the final weather forecast increases.

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This animation is the Hrrr model.

This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region.  It is a future-cast radar.

Green is rain.  Blue is snow.  Pink and red represent sleet and freezing rain.

Time-stamp upper left.  Click the animation to enlarge it.

Models handle afternoon and evening thunderstorms poorly.  Keep that in mind.

 

This animation is the SPC WRF model.

This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region.  It is a future-cast radar.

Green is rain.  Blue is snow.  Pink and red represent sleet and freezing rain.

Time-stamp upper left.  Click the animation to enlarge it.

Models handle afternoon and evening thunderstorms poorly.  Keep that in mind.

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This animation is the 3K American Model.

This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region.  It is a future-cast radar.

Green is rain.  Blue is snow.  Pink and red represent sleet and freezing rain.

Time-stamp upper left.  Click the animation to enlarge it.

Models handle afternoon and evening thunderstorms poorly.  Keep that in mind.

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This next animation is the NAM American Model.

This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region.  It is a future-cast radar.

Green is rain.  Blue is snow.  Pink and red represent sleet and freezing rain.

Time-stamp upper left.  Click the animation to enlarge it.

Models handle afternoon and evening thunderstorms poorly.  Keep that in mind.

 

This next animation is the GFS American Model.

This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region.  It is a future-cast radar.

Green is rain.  Blue is snow.  Pink and red represent sleet and freezing rain.

Time-stamp upper left.  Click the animation to enlarge it.

Models handle afternoon and evening thunderstorms poorly.  Keep that in mind.

 


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Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.

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Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 87 degrees.

Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 75 degrees.

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.00″ to 1.20″

Yellow and orange colors are above average temperatures.  Red is much above average.  Light blue and blue are below-average temperatures.  Green to purple colors represents much below-average temperatures.

This outlook covers  July 15th through July 21st

Click on the image to expand it.

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The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF AVERAGE. Brown is below average. Green is above average. Blue is much above average.

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Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 89 degrees

Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 76 degrees

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.00″ to 1.20″
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This outlook covers  July 22nd through the 28th

Click on the image to expand it.

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The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF AVERAGE. For example, if your average rainfall is 1.00″ and the graphic shows 25%, then that would mean 0.25″ of rain is anticipated.

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THIS IS UPDATED ON TUESDAY AND FRIDAY
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Outlook definitions
EC = Equal chances of above or below average
BN= Below average
M/BN = Much below average
AN = Above average
M/AN = Much above average
E/AN = Extremely above average
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Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 89 degrees
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 69 degrees

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.70″ to 2.20″

This outlook covers July 28th through August 10th

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Precipitation outlook

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LONG RANGE DISCUSSION

Key Points: This was written by the BAMwx team. I don’t edit it.

Click to enlarge all of the images below

These graphics are updated Monday through Friday between 8:30 AM and 9:30 AM.

NOTE: These may not be updated on Saturday and Sunday.

Click the image below to enlarge it.

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Summer outlook

Click to enlarge it.  Then, you can read it better.

June through August

Temperature departures

 

Precipitation

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July temperature departures

Click on the images to enlarge them

July Precipitation

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August temperature departures

Click on the images to enlarge them

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Great news!  The videos are now found in your Weathertalk app and on the WeatherTalk website.

These are bonus videos for subscribers.

The app is for subscribers.  Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com/welcome then go to your app store and search for WeatherTalk

Subscribers, PLEASE USE THE APP. ATT and Verizon are not reliable during severe weather. They are delaying text messages.

The app is under WeatherTalk in the app store.

Apple users click here

Android users click here



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Radar Link: Interactive local city-view radars & regional radars.

You will find clickable warning and advisory buttons on the local city-view radars.

If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.

Not working? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com

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National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.

Storm Prediction Center. Click here.

Weather Prediction Center. Click here.

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Live lightning data: Click here.

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Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.

GOES 16 slider tool. Click here.

College of Dupage satellites. Click here

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Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.

Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.

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