July 14, 2020. Beau’s subscriber’s weather blog update. Not a subscriber? Go to www.weathertalk.com/welcome Once subscribed, download the WeatherTalk app in the app store

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7-day forecast for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.

This is a blend for the region. See the detailed region by region forecast further down in this post.

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Tuesday through Tuesday

1. Is lightning in the forecast? Yes. Lightning will be possible late Tuesday night through at least Monday

2. Are severe thunderstorms in the forecast? Some risk. The main concern will be down burst wind. Thunderstorms, during the summer months, can grow to 40,000 to 55,000′. When they weaken they can collapse. This causes high winds. Winds can exceed 50 mph.

* The NWS officially defines a severe thunderstorm as a storm with 58 mph wind or greater, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes

3. Is flash flooding in the forecast? Possible. Slow moving storms will produce heavy rain. Pockets of flash flooding may occur.

4. Will there be a chance of a frost or freeze? No.

5. Will the heat index exceed 100 degrees? Yes. Heat index values from 100 to 105 are likely outside of cloudy areas.

6. Will the wet-bulb globe temperature reach caution or danger levels? Yes.

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Tuesday WBGT (F): 84° Take 15 minute breaks each hour of working or exercising in direct sunlight.
Wednesday WBGT (F): 83° Take 15 minute breaks each hour of working or exercising in direct sunlight.
Thursday WBGT (F): 84° Take 15 minute breaks each hour of working or exercising in direct sunlight.
Friday WBGT (F): 84° Take 15 minute breaks each hour of working or exercising in direct sunlight.
Saturday WBGT (F): 83° Take 15 minute breaks each hour of working or exercising in direct sunlight.
Sunday WBGT (F): 82° Take 15 minute breaks each hour of working or exercising in direct sunlight.
Monday WBGT (F): 83° Take 15 minute breaks each hour of working or exercising in direct sunlight.

The WetBulb Globe Temperature (WBGT) is a measure of the heat stress in direct sunlight, which takes into account: temperature, humidity, wind speed, sun angle and cloud cover (solar radiation).

This differs from the heat index, which takes into consideration temperature and humidity and is calculated for shady areas.

If you work or exercise in direct sunlight, this is a good element to monitor.

Sports coaches, schools, military agencies, OSHA, and many nations use the WBGT as a guide to managing workload in direct sunlight.

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July 14, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High confidence
Tuesday Forecast: Mostly sunny. Hot.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 90° to 95° SE MO 90° to 95° South IL 90° to 95° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 90° to 95° West KY 90° to 95° NW TN 90° to 95°
Wind direction and speed: South and southwest at 5 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 96° to 100°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? High heat index values. Use care.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 11. Very high.
Sunrise: 5:46 AM
Sunset: 8:16 PM
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Tuesday night Forecast: Mostly clear. A slight chance of a thunderstorm. Mostly over southeast Missouri and towards Randolph County, Illinois.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~30% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 70° to 74° SE MO 70° to 74° South IL 70° to 74° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 70° to 74° West KY 70° to 74° NW TN 70° to 74°
Wind direction and speed: Southwest at 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 73° to 76°
Coverage of precipitation: None for most. Scattered chance over southeast Missouri and a small part of southwest Illinois.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Most likely none for most. Scattered lightning and west roadways in the above mentioned area.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 1:17 AM
Moonset: 2:47 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent

July 15, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Wednesday Forecast: Mostly sunny. Scattered thunderstorms. Hot and humid. Some storms could become severe with hail and wind damage.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 50% IL ~ 40% KY ~ 40% TN ~ 30%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 93° to 95° SE MO 92° to 95° South IL 92° to 95° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 92° to 95° West KY 92° to 95° NW TN 92° to 95°
Wind direction and speed: South and southwest wind 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 98° to 104°
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to perhaps numerous
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways and lightning, Gusty wind near storms. A chance of hail. High heat index values.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates and radars.
UV Index: 11. Very high.
Sunrise: 5:46 AM
Sunset: 8:16 PM
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Wednesday night Forecast: Partly cloudy. A chance of thunderstorms. Humid. Some storms could be intense.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 60% IL ~ 60% KY ~ 60% TN ~ 50%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 73° to 76° SE MO 73° to 76° South IL 73° to 76° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 73° to 74° West KY 73° to 76° NW TN 73° to 76°
Wind direction and speed: Southwest at 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 74° to 78°
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to perhaps numerous
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways and lightning, Gusty wind near storms. A chance of hail.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitors updates.
Moonrise: 1:45 AM
Moonset: 3:47 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent

July 16, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Thursday Forecast: Mostly sunny. A chance of thunderstorms developing. Hot and humid. Some storms could be strong.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 30% TN ~ 30%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 92° to 95° SE MO 92° to 95° South IL 92° to 95° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 92° to 95° West KY 92° to 95° NW TN 92° to 95°
Wind direction and speed: South and southwest wind 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 100° to 105°
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Heat. Wet roadways and lightning, Gusty wind near storms. A chance of hail. High heat index values.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitors updates
UV Index: 11. Very high.
Sunrise: 5:47 AM
Sunset: 8:15 PM
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Thursday night Forecast: Partly cloudy. A chance of thunderstorms. Warm. Humid.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~20% IL ~ 30% KY ~ 30% TN ~ 20%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 74° to 76° MO 73° to 76° South IL 73° to 76° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 73° to 74° West KY 73° to 76° NW TN 73° to 76°
Wind direction and speed: South at 4 to 8 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 74° to 78°
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways and lightning, Gusty wind near storms.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates
Moonrise: 2:18 AM
Moonset: 4:46 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent

July 17, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Friday Forecast: Mostly sunny. A chance of thunderstorms developing. Hot and humid.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 30% TN ~ 20%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 93° to 96° SE MO 93° to 96° South IL 93° to 96° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 93° to 96° West KY 93° to 96° NW TN 93° to 96°
Wind direction and speed: South and southwest wind 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 100° to 105°
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Heat. Wet roadways and lightning, Gusty wind near storms. High heat index values. Use care.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitors updates
UV Index: 11. Very high.
Sunrise: 5:48 AM
Sunset: 8:14 PM
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Friday night Forecast: Partly cloudy. A chance of thunderstorms. Warm. Humid.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20% IL ~ 30% KY ~ 20% TN ~ 20%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 74° to 76° MO 74° to 76° South IL 74° to 76° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 74° to 74° West KY 74° to 76° NW TN 74° to 76°
Wind direction and speed: South at 4 to 8 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 74° to 78°
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways and lightning, Gusty wind near storms.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates
Moonrise: 2:55 AM
Moonset: 4:47 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent

July 18, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Saturday Forecast: Mostly sunny. A chance of thunderstorms developing. Hot and humid.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30% IL ~ 30% KY ~ 30% TN ~ 30%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 93° to 96° SE MO 93° to 96° South IL 93° to 96° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 93° to 96° West KY 93° to 96° NW TN 93° to 96°
Wind direction and speed: South and southwest wind 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 100° to 105°
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Heat. Wet roadways and lightning, Gusty wind near storms. High heat index values. Use care.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitors updates
UV Index: 11. Very high.
Sunrise: 5:49 AM
Sunset: 8:14 PM
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Saturday night Forecast: Partly cloudy. A chance of thunderstorms. Warm. Humid.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 20% TN ~ 20%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 74° to 76° MO 73° to 76° South IL 73° to 76° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 73° to 74° West KY 73° to 76° NW TN 73° to 76°
Wind direction and speed: South at 4 to 8 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 74° to 78°
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways and lightning, Gusty wind near storms.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates
Moonrise: 3:39 AM
Moonset: 6:47 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent

July 19, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Low confidence
Sunday Forecast: Mostly sunny. A chance of isolated thunderstorms developing. Hot and humid.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 20% TN ~ 10%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 94° to 98° SE MO 94° to 98° South IL 94° to 98° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 94° to 96° West KY 94° to 98° NW TN 94° to 98°
Wind direction and speed: South and southwest wind 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 100° to 105°
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Heat. Wet roadways and lightning, Gusty wind near storms. High heat index values. Use care.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitors updates
UV Index: 11. Very high.
Sunrise: 5:49 AM
Sunset: 8:13 PM
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Sunday night Forecast: Partly cloudy. A chance of thunderstorms. Warm. Humid.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 20% TN ~ 20%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 74° to 78° MO 74° to 76° South IL 74° to 78° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 74° to 76° West KY 74° to 78° NW TN 74° to 76°
Wind direction and speed: South at 4 to 8 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 74° to 78°
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways and lightning, Gusty wind near storms.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates
Moonrise: 4:31 AM
Moonset: 7:43 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent

July 20, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Low confidence
Monday Forecast: Mostly sunny. A chance of thunderstorms developing. Hot and humid.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 20% TN ~ 20%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 93° to 96° SE MO 93° to 96° South IL 93° to 96° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 93° to 96° West KY 93° to 96° NW TN 93° to 96°
Wind direction and speed: South and southwest wind 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 100° to 105°
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Heat. Wet roadways and lightning, Gusty wind near storms. High heat index values. Use care.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitors updates
UV Index: 11. Very high.
Sunrise: 5:50 AM
Sunset: 8:13 PM
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Monday night Forecast: Partly cloudy. A chance of thunderstorms. Warm. Humid.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 20% TN ~ 20%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 74° to 76° MO 73° to 76° South IL 73° to 76° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 73° to 74° West KY 73° to 76° NW TN 73° to 76°
Wind direction and speed: South at 4 to 8 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 74° to 78°
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways and lightning, Gusty wind near storms.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates
Moonrise: 5:30 AM
Moonset: 8:35 PM
The phase of the moon: New

What is the UV index?

Highs in the upper 80s to middle 90s this week. Heat concerns.
Thunderstorms will be possible Wednesday into at least Saturday. Locally heavy rain will be the primary concern. A lower risk of wind damage and hail.

Click to enlarge the graphics.

Remember, this is an average across our local area. The county by county will vary. See the detailed forecast above for each area.

Click graphics to enlarge them.

These are dates that may have precipitation. Monitor the trends in the forecast.

Anything past day seven is low confidence.

Graphic-cast

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Illinois

During active weather check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page.

Kentucky

During active weather check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page.

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Tennessee

During active weather check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page.

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Today through July 20th: Thunderstorms this week could produce some wind damage and hail. The main concern will be Wednesday and Thursday. I will need to monitor the data beyond those days.

Downburst winds are not uncommon during July.

Today’s outlook (below).

Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.

Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.

One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.

A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter size hail, and/or a tornado.

The tan states are simply a region that SPC outlined on this particular map. Just ignore that.

The black outline is our local area.

Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook.

The images below are from the WPC. Their totals are a bit lower than our current forecast. I wanted to show you the comparison.

24-hour precipitation outlook.
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48-hour precipitation outlook.
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72-hour precipitation outlook.
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Weather advice:

Updated July 14, 2020

Scattered thunderstorms Wednesday into at least Sunday. Some of the storms could produce locally heavy rain and gusty wind. Avoid flooded roadways.

Heat index values will rise above 100 by Wednesday. Muggy weather. Use care when working outdoors, as always.

Don’t leave pets, children, or adults in hot cars. Cars can rapidly heat to above 115 degrees in this kind of weather. Use common sense, as always.

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Weather Discussion

1. A warm week ahead.
2. Monitoring thunderstorm chances.

A warm day ahead of us. Dry, as well. No major weather concerns. Enjoy today’s weather.

A weak disturbance will approach from the west late tonight. This may spark a couple of thunderstorms over southeast Missouri. Chances elsewhere will below.

Thunderstorm chances ramp up area-wide Wednesday into the weekend.

We will have several disturbances moving through the hot and muggy air. That is going to trigger some heavy thunderstorms.

Some of the thunderstorms could become severe.

There will be no lack of energy in the atmosphere. High temperatures will rise into the 90s each day. Heat equals energy.

CAPE values (CAPE is a measure of energy) will rise above 3000 each afternoon. Wind shear won’t be all that strong (usually the case in July) but enough to warrant out attention. Wind shear is an ingredient for severe thunderstorms.

Plan on some severe thunderstorm warnings tomorrow and perhaps into Thursday and even Friday. Again, the primary concern will be wind damage. A lesser concern will be quarter size hail. The tornado risk will be small.

Daily highs will reach into the 90s. Heat index values will range from the middle 90s to 105 degrees each afternoon. Use care in all of that heat.

If you miss out on the rain chances Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday then you may have to wait a bit longer. Saturday and Sunday rain chances won’t be zero, but it does appear the chances will be slightly less than Wednesday through Friday.

The long-range outlook centers around the placement of the ridge of high pressure. That ridge will control where we have thunderstorms or dry/hot weather.

The high will be shunted slightly southward Wednesday through Friday. Thus, we have higher thunderstorm chances.

If the ridge of high pressure nudges its way back into our region then rain chances would shut down and we would be left with mid to upper 90s for daytime high temperatures. Heat index values would be north of 100 degrees. Let’s hope we can keep the ridge suppressed.

Precipitable water numbers are going to be very high Wednesday and perhaps Thursday.

That means torrential rain. One to two inches in thirty minutes will be possible in the heavier thunderstorms. Same as recent weeks. This could cause flash flooding.

Precipitable water valueless will be very high Wednesday.

Dew points will feel oppressive across portions of the region. Mid to upper 70s. 80 degree dew points are possible near corn fields.

That is air you wear! Uncomfortable.

All of that moisture will make it feel muggy outside. Wednesday heat index values.

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Again, as a reminder, these are models. They are never 100% accurate. Take the general idea from them.

What should I take from these?

The general idea and not specifics. Models usually do well with the generalities.
The time-stamp is located in the upper left corner.

What am I looking at?
You are looking at different models. Meteorologists use many different models to forecast the weather. All models are wrong. Some are more wrong than others. Meteorologists have to make a forecast based on the guidance/models.

I show you these so you can see what the different models are showing as far as precipitation. If most of the models agree, then the confidence in the final weather forecast increases.

This animation is the Hrrr model.

This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.