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This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog.
Remember that weather evolves. Check back frequently for updates, especially during active weather.
The forecast numbers below may vary a bit across the region. These are the averages.
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
Tuesday – Partly cloudy and hot. A chance for morning thunderstorms. Some storms could be intense early in the morning. Then partly sunny with a chance for a few afternoon storms. If storms form in the afternoon then they could be intense.
Temperatures: Highs from 88 to 94 degrees. Heat index values above 100 likely.
Winds: West and southwest at 10-15 mph
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates.
Is severe weather expected? Isolated severe thunderstorm risk. Mainly this would be during the afternoon and evening.
What is the chance for precipitation? 20% during the morning and then a 40%-50% chance during the afternoon.
What impact is expected? Storms that do form could produce lightning, heavy rain, and gusty winds. There is a risk for a few reports of damaging winds, hail, and a small tornado risk.
Tuesday night – Any evening thunderstorms will move south and come to an end. Muggy and humid. Summer air.
Temperatures: Lows in the middle 70’s
Winds: West and southwest winds at 5-10 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? Not expecting severe weather on Tuesday night.
What is the chance for precipitation? 40% early in the evening…mainly southern counties in far southeast Missouri into western Kentucky and Tennessee.
What impact is expected? Evening storms could be strong to severe over our southern counties, mainly. Monitor any watches and warnings that might be issued.
Wednesday – Quite a bit of sun. Warm, but perhaps not as hot as recent days. Highs in the upper 80’s to around 90 degrees.
Temperatures: Highs from 85 to 90 degrees.
Winds: North winds at 5-10 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 10%-20% chance
What impact is expected? None
Wednesday night – Partly cloudy. Small chance for a thunderstorm. Warm.
Temperatures: Lows in the lower to middle 70’s
Winds: East winds at 5 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? Not expecting severe weather on Tuesday night.
What is the chance for precipitation? 10%-20%
What impact is expected? No impact expected. If storms form then lightning, heavy rain, and gusty winds. Small chance, but I will monitor for changes.
Thursday – Partly sunny. Warm and humid. Small thunderstorm chance.
Temperatures: Highs from 85 to 90 degrees.
Winds: South winds at 5-10 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 10%-20% chance
What impact is expected? None expected. But, if storms form then lightning, heavy rain, and gusty winds. Small chance, but I will monitor for changes.
Time to pay the piper. We had below normal temperatures for the first 9-10 days of July. Now, we are moving more into the hot pattern. We will have to see how long it will last. I know most people hate this weather. Too muggy. Too much moisture in the ground. Not pleasant for most people.
Right now it appears Friday into Sunday will be hot and mostly dry. Perhaps 20% chances for storms. I will need to monitor a few disturbances.
The main storm track has shifted a bit further north and east. That is where the heaviest rain will occur. See more details below in the blow.
Sunrise and Sunset Times – Click Here
Don’t forget to check out the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory web-site for weather maps, tower cams, scanner feeds, radars, and much more! Click here
An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming days…
Highlights
1. Storms tonight is the focus of this update
2. Warm week ahead. Hot by Friday into Sunday, again
Tuesday…
Tuesday could have some lingering thunderstorms during the morning hours. Primarily over Kentucky. These should die off during the morning, as well. This will leave warm and humid conditions over the region.
There is a risk that a few storms will redevelop over the southern half of our region on Tuesday afternoon. Perhaps far southeast Missouri into parts of western Kentucky. Small risk. If storms do redevelop then they could be intense. A few severe storms can not be ruled out. If these storms form then damaging winds and hail would be possible with even a small tornado risk. Torrential rainfall under storms that form on Tuesday afternoon.
The rest of the week will bring warm temperatures for Wednesday and Thursday. Hot temperatures by Friday into Sunday. Heat index values will jump back into the 100+ range by the weekend. Not overly pleasant weather.
Small thunderstorm chances Wednesday into Sunday.
The main storm track has shifted more to the north and east. That means the ridge is winning for most of this week. When the ridge wins we end up with hot and humid weather, but less rain chances.
This section of the blog is speculative forecast information. Because it is past the range of what meteorologists can forecast accurately, it should be considered speculation. Anything past day 5 is considered a long range forecast.
Highlights
1. The rest of July appears to be shaping up with on and off storm chances. Heavy rain potential near our region.
2. Possible heat wave towards first week of August (not that it isn’t occasionally hot now)
Short update today, because of ongoing weather.
The heat is going to stick around. Expect 90’s on Friday into Sunday. Heat index values will be over 100 degrees.
We had a very nice run in early July of below normal temperatures, but that is ending. At least for now.
The ridge is going to win this week. And, some data now shows the same for next week. Not ready to bite on that, just yet.
Radars
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
I also set up a storm tracking page with additional links (use during active weather for quick reference)
Storm Tracking Tool Page
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How much precipitation should we expect over the next few days?
7 Day Rainfall Forecast (subject to some shifting around as I figure out where the heaviest storms will track)
WPC map
Notice how the storm track has shifted to the north and east a bit?
Can we expect severe thunderstorms over the next 24 to 48 hours? Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.
Thunderstorm threat level is a THREE for Monday night and early Tuesday morning. A TWO for Tuesday into Tuesday afternoon.
Tuesday and Tuesday evening – A few storms could become severe with damaging winds, hail, and even an isolated tornado risk. Torrential rains if storms form.
Wednesday into Friday – No severe weather expected, at this time.
Severe weather on Monday and Monday night. That is the main concern. Locally heavy rain, lightning, and damaging winds not out of the question IF storms can manage to break the CAP.
Here are the current river stage forecasts. You can click your state and then the dot for your location. It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.
Click Here For River Stage Forecasts…
Here are some current forecast hydrographs. These will be updated each day with new information.
Smithland Lock and Dam
Paducah, Kentucky Forecast Stage
Cairo, Illinois
Cape Girardeau, Missouri
Current Temperatures Around The Local Area
We have regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not seem to be updating then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared. You may also try restarting your browser. That usually fixes the problem. Occasionally we do have a radar go down. That is why I have duplicates. Thus, if one fails then try another one.
If you have any problems then please send me an email beaudodson@usawx.com
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
We also have a new national interactive radar – you can view that radar by clicking here.
Local interactive city radars include St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, Dyersburg, and all of eastern Kentucky – these are interactive radars. Local city radars – click here
NOTE: Occasionally you will see ground clutter on the radar (these are false echoes). Normally they show up close to the radar sites – including Paducah.
Regional Radar – Click on radar to take you our full radar page.
Regional Radar
Live Lightning Data – zoom and pan: Click here
Live Lightning Data with sound (click the sound button on the left side of the page): Click here
I also set up a storm tracking page with additional links (use during active weather for quick reference)
Storm Tracking Tool Page
Current WARNINGS (a warning means take action now). Click on your county to drill down to the latest warning information. Keep in mind that there can be a 2-3 minute delay in the updated warning information.
I strongly encourage you to use a NOAA Weather Radio or warning cell phone app for the most up to date warning information. Nothing is faster than a NOAA weather radio.
Color shaded counties are under some type of watch, warning, advisory, or special weather statement. Click your county to view the latest information.
Missouri Warnings
Illinois Warnings
Kentucky Warnings
Here is the official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).
The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA).
The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Note the dates are at the top of the image. These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be. They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.
Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?
I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s. I have 37 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns. My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology from Mississippi State University and an Associate of Science (AS). I am currently working on my Bachelor’s Degree in Geoscience. Just need to finish two Spanish classes!
I am a member of the American Meteorological Society. I am a NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador. And, I am the Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management.
I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.
There is a lot of noise on the internet. A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation. Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.
My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.
- Communicate in simple terms
- To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
- Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, and the blog
- Minimize the “hype” that you might see on television or through other weather sources
- Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events
I am a recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross. In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. I was recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.
I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.
Many of my graphics are from www.weatherbell.com – a great resource for weather data, model data, and more
You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions.
